Week of 2/9 Bracketology

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#26      
21ChampaignSt
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Okay, Bracketologists … explain to me how we get into Chicago, because I’ve given up all hope of a #1, and a #3 is just as good as a #2.
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If your goal is Chicago, I think you need Iowa State to go on a tear and get the 3rd 1 seed while Michigan drops some games and falls to the 4th 1 seed.

I don’t think we're eliminated from a 1 though. We would need to win out, I think. But 17-3 with a win over Michigan has always been the formula for a 1 seed and B1G championship. Of course, the team that showed up tonight isn't going to go 17-3.
 
#29      
Illini2010-11
21ChampaignSt said:
Wisconsin up to 37 in NET. Need them to get inside the top 30.
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I suspect they will when all is said and done. They are a very solid team that has been up and down this year -- I expect them to beat Sparty at home on Friday. They very well might be in top 30 by the time we play next. They will also likely be in top 25 AP by next week too. Their schedule is actually favorable going out with their lone ranked road game @Purdue.

Last night was definitely a bad loss in the eyes of our fans, but I do not suspect it will be a bad loss come Selection Sunday from a committee standpoint.
 
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#31      
Piotyr
Metrics bracket update!

Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning):
B1G - Michigan (1)
B12 - Arizona (2)
ACC - Duke (3)
WCC - Gonzaga (6)
BE - UConn (8)
SEC - Florida (10)
A10 - Saint Louis (16)
MW - Utah State (24)
American - Tulsa (46)
MAC - Miami-OH (51)
MVC - Belmont (59)
SLnd - McNeese (64)
Ivy - Yale (65)
CUSA - Liberty (78)
BSth - High Point (81)
WAC - Utah Valley (82)
BW - Hawaii (90)
CAA - UNCW (99)
Summit - St. Thomas (110)
SB - Troy (115)
SoCon - ETSU (116)
BSky - Portland St. (120)
Horz - Wright St. (131)
ASun - Austin Peay (137)
MAAC - Marist (150)
Pat - Navy (155)
OVC - UT Martin (176)
NEC - LIU (188)
AEast - Vermont (220)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (235)
MEAC - Howard (240)

At-large field (top 37 resume average): Houston, Nebraska, Purdue, Kansas, Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Alabama, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Clemson, St. John's, BYU, North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Iowa, Louisville, Villanova, Utah State, UCF, USC, Wisconsin, NC State, Saint Mary's, Georgia, SMU, Auburn, Miami FL, Santa Clara, Indiana, Texas A&M, UCLA, Texas, Missouri, Ohio State

Just missed: Oklahoma State, San Diego State, California, TCU, New Mexico, VCU, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, George Mason, SFA

Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):

1 (1). Michigan (+0)
1 (1). Arizona (+0)
3 (1). Houston (+2)
4 (1). Duke (-1)
5 (2). Illinois (+1)
6 (2). Florida (+3)
7 (2). Iowa State (-3)
8 (2). UConn (-1)
9 (3). Purdue (-1)
10 (3). Gonzaga (+0)
11 (3). Kansas (+3)
12 (3). Michigan State (-1)
13 (4). Nebraska (-1)
14 (4). Vanderbilt (-1)
15 (4). Louisville (+0)
16 (4). Virginia (+0)
17 (5). Tennessee (+0)
18 (5). Arkansas (+6)
19 (5). Texas Tech (+0)
20 (5). Iowa (+0)
21 (6). Saint Louis (+1)
22 (6). Alabama (-2)
23 (6). BYU (-5)
24 (6). St. John's (-1)
25 (7). Clemson (+4)
26 (7). Utah State (+4)
27 (7). NC State (-2)
28 (7). North Carolina (-2)
29 (8). Indiana (-1)
30 (8). Saint Mary's (+5)
31 (8). Auburn (-4)
32 (8). Kentucky (+1)
33 (9). Villanova (-1)
34 (9). Texas A&M (-3)
35 (9). Wisconsin (+1)
36 (9). SMU (-2)
37 (10). Georgia (+0)
38 (10). Santa Clara (+0)
39 (10). Texas (NEW)
40 (10). UCLA (+0)
41 (11). Miami FL (-2)
42 (11*). Ohio State (NEW)
43 (11*). UCF (-1)
44 (11*). USC (-1)
45 (11). Tulsa (-1)
46 (11*). Missouri (NEW)
47 (12). Belmont (-2)
48 (12). Miami OH (+1)
49 (12). McNeese (-2)
50 (12). Yale (-2)
51 (13). Utah Valley (+1)
52 (13). Liberty (-1)
53 (13). High Point (+1)
54 (13). Hawaii (-1)
55 (14). UNCW (+0)
56 (14). St. Thomas (+0)
57 (14). Troy (NEW)
58 (14). ETSU (-1)
59 (15). Portland St. (+1)
60 (15). Wright St. (NEW)
61 (15). Austin Peay (+0)
62 (15). Marist (+0)
63 (16). Navy (+1)
64 (16). UT Martin (-1)
65 (16*). LIU (+0)
66 (16*). Vermont (+0)
67 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (+0)
68 (16*). Howard (+0)

Last 4 out: San Diego State, New Mexico, Baylor, Washington
Next 4 out: TCU, VCU, Boise State, Seton Hall
 
#32      
aaeismacgychel
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Okay, Bracketologists … explain to me how we get into Chicago, because I’ve given up all hope of a #1, and a #3 is just as good as a #2.
Click to expand...
So
Option 1:
Theoretically we could finish 5th in seeding the B10, but still a Top 4 seed. So say Michigan gets the Midwest/Chicago. Nebraska, MSU, Purdue are 2nd to 4th in s-rank in the B10 and get the other 3 brackets because they wouldn't be allowed to be in the Midwest with Michigan. We are say a 3 seed and the Midwest is still open for the 3 seed. That would be our first choice and we get placed there.

Option 2:
2a.
Michigan goes in the tank a bit and finishes as either the 3rd or 4th 1 seed behind a team that has Chicago as their 2nd choice (i.e. behind Duke and UCONN). Michigan becomes the 4th 1 seed and gets the Houston bracket. Illinois is the top 2 seed and gets their Chicago preference.

2b.
Michigan still is that 4th 1 seed in Houston. Say Houston is the Top 2 seed and gets their preference, Houston. Iowa State is the 2nd 2 seed and they get their preference, Chicago. Nebraska, MSU, or Purdue as the 3rd or 4th 2 seed gets sent out West or out East. Say Florida is the top 3 seed and they get sent out East. Kansas is next and because they can't be in Houston or Chicago due to Houston and ISU they go out West. We're next and get our preference, Chicago.

In any case, that's just 3 options. There's still many paths available but most occur if Michigan becomes the 4th 1 seed and gets sent to a non Midwest bracket.
 
#33      
Piotyr
Notes on the metrics bracket:
- George Mason has finally lost enough games to effectively fall out of the at large conversation, which sorts the at large bids out more or less similarly between efficiency and resume (no weird situations with great resume and terrible efficiency).
- This data was as of this morning, so the Wisconsin win over Illinois is in full effect, and Illinois is #5 anyway.
- Florida and Kansas keep rising, despite the number of losses they have.
 
#35      
21ChampaignSt
We picked up a Q1 win overnight with Northwestern momentarily moving into the top 75 of NET. That gives us 7 Q1 wins, tied for 4th most in the country.

Also, with their win last night over Texas A&M, Missouri is now up to 57 in NET. They have home games left against Vandy, Arkansas, and Tennessee so there's still an outside shot that they could become a Q1 win for us as well.
 
#36      
RML
aaeismacgychel said:
I'll still say, I want absolutely nothing to do with St. Louis this year. The only thing killing their metrics this year is their weak overall schedule and they have struggled at times with ball pressure and doubles where they're prone to turning the ball over via steal. They are an exceptional shooting team from both 3 and 2. Absolutely exceptional. They have 4 3pt shooters who hit at over 40%, led by a 48.6% high volume 3 shooter, for reference, that's freshman Jamar Smith at even higher volume. If you aren't able to force them into turnovers, or force them off the 3pt line into a tall big, you're in some big trouble. I can easily see that team making a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 run. Let it be to someone who isn't us. St. Louis is probably the most vomit inducing 2nd round matchup any high ranked team could ask for.
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Especially for a team that doesn't try to force turnovers?
 
#37      
Fly Illini Fly!
Here’s the “fringe quad 1s” we need to be rooting for:

— Indiana: assuming we beat them; need it to be top30.

— Mizzou: need it to be top50

— Northwestern: need it to remain top75

If all those go our way (no guarantee on that) — we will have 9 Q1 games as it currently stands.

Still have games against scUM, west coast, Big Ten Tournament, etc etc.

If we get to 12 Q1 wins — almost certainly we’d have to be at least a 2 seed (?)
 
#38      
aaeismacgychel
RML said:
Especially for a team that doesn't try to force turnovers?
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100%. And aside from their exceptional shooting, they're also a good defensive rebounding team, have some length in the backcourt, and don't rely on turnovers, while playing extremely strong defense. That St Louis team plays to the few weaknesses we have and as you said, their biggest weakness is one that really isn't part of our gameplan. They would be an extremely dangerous team for us to play in my opinion. NCAA tourney is all about matchups, and that is a possible 2nd round matchup I'd want to avoid.
 
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#39      
NarrowJ
Wisconsin our first Q2 loss of the season:


1770914801017.png
 
#41      
Illini2010-11
Second place is 1st loser said:
He updates on Tuesday morning and Friday morning, I think. I know CBS dropped us to a 3, but noted opportunities available to rise.
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Yes, four straight Quad 1 opportunities ahead (really need to win Sunday, as there is a very good chance that it falls back to Quad 2 game). We really cannot afford a letdown at the end of the season, as the last two games are Quad 3 games. Hopefully Maryland moves up 15 spots to make that a Quad 2 game. That has the potential of being a fairly dangerous road game to close out the season, though I expect the Illini to come out with fire there.
 
#43      
Altuve27
Our metrics are fantastic. Despite the last two painful losses we are currently 6 in Ken Pomeroy, 6 in Torvik, 5 in NET, and a great strength of schedule. We are in GREAT position to get a 2 seed.

That said, need to get this turned around and win Sunday. Can’t afford back-to-back home losses.
 
#44      
NarrowJ
Illini2010-11 said:
Yes, four straight Quad 1 opportunities ahead (really need to win Sunday, as there is a very good chance that it falls back to Quad 2 game). We really cannot afford a letdown at the end of the season, as the last two games are Quad 3 games. Hopefully Maryland moves up 15 spots to make that a Quad 2 game. That has the potential of being a fairly dangerous road game to close out the season, though I expect the Illini to come out with fire there.
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The thing with the Indiana game though is that they're 30 right now, if we win and they drop (even to 31) then its not a Q1

Probably need them to win at least 1 vs MSU and Purdue and then win their other 3 games vs NW, Minn, OSU to stay top 30? Just a wild guess
 
#45      
Illini2010-11
NarrowJ said:
The thing with the Indiana game though is that they're 30 right now, if we win and they drop (even to 31) then its not a Q1

Probably need them to win at least 1 vs MSU and Purdue and then win their other 3 games vs NW, Minn, OSU to stay top 30? Just a wild guess
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Which is why that game is so important for us on Sunday. I am not really concerned if IU is a Quad 1 or Quad 2 win. Simply win that game, and we avoid any chance of it becoming a Quad 2 loss (not to mention a dreaded losing streak). At this point, I am more interested in Wisconsin breaking the top 30 (making it a Quad 1 loss) and Maryland breaking the top 135 so that we close the season with a Quad 2 road game compared to a Quad 3 game than keeping IU as a Quad 1 game.
 
#48      
Illini in Indiana
IDK, get to a 16-4 Big10 record and get a top 4 Big10 seed and win a game or two. We are then a 2 or 3 Seed, in my mind pretty much the same thing. 4 or 5 seeds suck, I'd take a 3 seed right now and be a team no one wants to see.
 
#50      
jumpingjack
Brad Davison needs to come sprinting out of the tunnel at the first media timeout and just give a two piece to Jeremy Fears right in the berries.
And then run back into the night...into...history
525.png
 
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