Week of 2/9 Bracketology
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And I think there's a lot of games left to improve on that....just gotta win....
I think the Illini drop to a 3-4 seed if they beat Indiana which is doubtful. Then they go out west where they could lose 1 maybe both the way their lack of defense is playing.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Have they announced when they’re doing the top 16 mid-Season reveal? Feel it should be today/tomorrow but nothing on it.
1 seed window is closing pretty fast. Of course, it was already a long shot after the Wisconsin loss. But, IMO, it's unlikely that Michigan, AZ, or Duke move off the 1 line. So, there's one 1 seed up for grabs.
Houston, ISU, Purdue, and UConn are our main competition.
One of Houston or ISU will lose tomorrow since they play each other.
After that, Houston still has Arizona at home and Kansas in Lawrence. I think they can lose two of those three and stay ahead of us even if we win out.
Besides Houston, ISU still has AZ and BYU on the road and TTU at home. If they pick up 2 of those, I think they would be essentially even with us if not better even if we win out.
Is it possible that the Big 12 teams lose the right combination of games to get bumped below us? Yes. Is it likely that both of them do? I don't think so.
Then there's Purdue. They have 4 games left against projected tournament teams but all of those are at Mackey. If they go 3-1 in those, they'll most likely end with a better Q1 record than us and remain ahead of us in NET and result based metrics. The other part of this is that we want Purdue to beat Michigan which would hurt our seeding but help our B1G title hopes.
UConn is a strange case. Result based metrics of a 1 seed. Predictive metrics of a 3. And they're currently 10th in NET. I don't think I've ever seen a team that low in NET get a 1.
It might still be a little early to try looking this far ahead but we're getting to the part of the year where the picture is getting clearer seemingly with each passing day.
Houston, ISU, Purdue, and UConn are our main competition.
One of Houston or ISU will lose tomorrow since they play each other.
After that, Houston still has Arizona at home and Kansas in Lawrence. I think they can lose two of those three and stay ahead of us even if we win out.
Besides Houston, ISU still has AZ and BYU on the road and TTU at home. If they pick up 2 of those, I think they would be essentially even with us if not better even if we win out.
Is it possible that the Big 12 teams lose the right combination of games to get bumped below us? Yes. Is it likely that both of them do? I don't think so.
Then there's Purdue. They have 4 games left against projected tournament teams but all of those are at Mackey. If they go 3-1 in those, they'll most likely end with a better Q1 record than us and remain ahead of us in NET and result based metrics. The other part of this is that we want Purdue to beat Michigan which would hurt our seeding but help our B1G title hopes.
UConn is a strange case. Result based metrics of a 1 seed. Predictive metrics of a 3. And they're currently 10th in NET. I don't think I've ever seen a team that low in NET get a 1.
It might still be a little early to try looking this far ahead but we're getting to the part of the year where the picture is getting clearer seemingly with each passing day.
If we don't win out, this is all moot. Every game, but the Michigan game, we'll be expected to win. That Wisconsin game did a ton of damage with regards to #1 seed hopes. We'd have to beat Michigan, then Purdue AND possibly Michigan again in the BTT to back into that consideration.
This does not help our resume:
Win out and we are a solid 2 going into the BTT.
I think we'd be in contention for a 1. Winning out means we beat Michigan.
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Agreed and Wisconsin seems to be hitting stride
Northwestern also frustratingly close to being Q1
(78th)
We would but in reality, a solid 2 until the BTT. We will need to win BTT to secure a 1 seed.
Brackets are determined before the championship game.
If Indiana loses to @ Purdue, @ Ohio state and home against Sparty do they even make the NCAA tournament? A lot of their losses are blow outs like today. Plus their nonconference schedule was horrid. They only played two decent non conference teams, Louisville and Kentucky, and lost both games easily. Their other power conference non conference opponents were K-State and Marquette and those teams are also terrible.
True, I hate that we are the late conference title game. How about getting to the Conference final and Michigan losing before then.
I think we’re a projected 1seed if we win out (which was your benchmark).
Michigan has games remaining @Purdue and Duke, in addition to our game.
If scUM loses to @Purdue, Duke, and @Illinois
….
and we win out
….
we will be a 1seed heading into the BTT.
Michigan has games remaining @Purdue and Duke, in addition to our game.
If scUM loses to @Purdue, Duke, and @Illinois
….
and we win out
….
we will be a 1seed heading into the BTT.
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Dee_4_Three_83
- Mahomet, IL
I would be ecstatic with a 2 or 3 seed this year. I think this is finally the year where we can beat a team we are seeded lower than. I'm not even that concerned about which region we play in. I think this team likes playing on the road and playing in Indiana.
They actually meet in Carmel, Indiana North of Indy at a hotel 3 miles from my house..I will make a effort to make a special visit to put in a good word for Ill.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Yes, but most years the committee has an if then scenario so IF we win out AND win the BTT, we have a legitimate shot at the 1 line (oh, and Duke and PU beats them). LOTS of ifs but reachable.
To me, getting St. L is the biggest deal. Have to get out of the first weekend, then go from there. There are going to be a lot of very good teams in the region that we'll either need to jump or hold off.
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