Week of 2/9 Bracketology

we can play with anyone at full strength - and whether it’s as a 2 or 3; really doesn’t matter other then do we have a white or blue jersey vs a big12 team or Florida.

Bigger key at this point is staying in front of the couple of teams for St. Louis (Purdue; Iowa State and Kansas).

Illinicpa14 said:

we can play with anyone at full strength - and whether it’s as a 2 or 3; really doesn’t matter other then do we have a white or blue jersey vs a big12 team or Florida.

Bigger key at this point is staying in front of the couple of teams for St. Louis (Purdue; Iowa State and Kansas).

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Yes, those are the three teams to be concerned about. Hopefully, Kansas struggles and they put Iowa State in OKC.

Fly Illini Fly! said:

I think we’re a projected 1seed if we win out (which was your benchmark).

Michigan has games remaining @Purdue and Duke, in addition to our game.

If scUM loses to @Purdue, Duke, and @Illinois
….
and we win out
….
we will be a 1seed heading into the BTT.

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I think we could be ahead of scUM for the 1 seed if we win out as long as scUM loses just two more, with one of those being against us.

Noblesville Illini said:

Yes, but most years the committee has an if then scenario so IF we win out AND win the BTT, we have a legitimate shot at the 1 line (oh, and Duke and PU beats them). LOTS of ifs but reachable.

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This is not how it works. The BTT doesn't really affect seeding once you get to Saturday especially. If we win 1 tournament game and then lose on Saturday our seeding is not going to be affected that much if at all. Must of the seeding especially for the top teams are already set. Conference tournaments don't carry a lot of weight in seeding movement for those top teams.

If we tie for the Big 10 regular season title but have a win over Michigan we are most likely going to be a 1 seed over Michigan because of that head to head. If we play them again in the BTT and lose to them in the champ game it's not going to affect seeding because it's too late due to the brackets being set. Same thing if we lose to them and then beat them in the BTT champ game it's not going to matter.

Updated B1G efficiency margin:



Notes:
- Top 5 still top 5 by a country mile. Wisconsin's hot week has bumped them up to 6.
- Michigan has gained some separation with some huge blowout wins in the past 10 days (PSU, UCLA). They'll get some interesting games here the next few weeks which could bring them back to the pack.
- Second 5 still full of teams with slightly positive EM, all effectively clear tourney teams, even if they're 7-10 seeds.
- USC just can't string together good wins, need a signature win to more solidify their spot. This week would be a terrible week for that, though.
- Bottom 5 is just full of terrible teams, and they'll continue to fight with each other for the right to not play on opening Tuesday. Currently, Rutgers leads that on a tiebreaker.

Fly Illini Fly! said:

Brackets are determined before the championship game.

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It's already been clarified that this isn't true.