I would like to propose that from now on we say "BYU *won't* play on Sundays" not *can't*.
Week of 3/10 Bracketology
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Right. An easier S16 match up only matters if you can get to the S16.
If this is what you want, then you should be hoping for a 4.
Look, I get both sides. Like I said, I've flip flopped between both. If your mindset is Elite 8 or nothing, then a 6 seed is best. If you just want to get to the second weekend, a 4 or 5 is best. No wrong answers. No clear or obvious answers. Just a matter of preference.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
You are giving him too much credit. I doubt he thinks at all when putting together his bracket.
I think UC San Diego.
They would have to move down until they find a seed line that fits their requirements. From https://bauertology.com/2025/03/08/bauertology-3-8-25/ :
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
The BYU factor in this is something to consider. Last year they were bumped a seed level and put in our bracket because they can’t play on Sunday. That could also play a part in where they play and what seed Illinois (or any similar team) receives.
Personally, I don’t think the committee should make concessions for one team based on religious reasons. By that math, Illinois should become a religious institution and say that the Great Creator Illiniwek forbids us playing in the first two rounds. Please advance us automatically to the second weekend, thank you.
UC San Diego and UC Irvine. This projection is a bit bullish on the Big West.
Palm still uses the RPI as a legitimate reference instead of a joke stat.
Thanks. That's the post I was trying to remember.
Last season BYU was supposed to be a 5 but got put as a 6 in the same pod as Illinois. Fortunately though they got upset and Illinois played number 11 Duquesne instead. Illinois never seems to get favorable draws. Idk if they would have made final four in any other region but clearly nobody was getting passed UConn last year.
I just checked and I don't see us winning any of those Elite 8 games last year. In the South the 3 seed Kentucky got upset by Oakland, but even if we won that game, I think we would have lost to Marquette in the SW16. Iowa State was a great match up for us.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Things might get very interesting if Flagg is out for an extended period of time for Duke. They are still a lock for a 1 seed, but they are much more beatable than the product they put on the floor at MSG.
Since the committee begins their tournament deliberation today, let's take an objective look at the field.
First things first, 68 teams make the tournament. There are 31 conferences that receive automatic bids (down from 32 last year, thanks Pac-12!), which leaves 37 at large bids available to be chosen from the field.
The current 14 automatic bids locked in:
ASUN - Lipscomb
Big Sky (they called their conference tournament Starch Madness this season which is adorable) - Montana
Big South - High Point
CAA - UNC Wilmington
Horizon - Robert Morris
MVC - Drake
NEC - Saint Francis (PA)
OVC - SIU Edwardsville
Patriot - American
Southern - Wofford
Southland - McNeese
Summit - Omaha
Sun Belt - Troy
WCC - Gonzaga
The remaining 17 auto bids are still in the midst of conference tournaments, so here's the highest NET team still competing for each of those:
America East - Bryant
American - Memphis
Atlantic 10 - VCU
ACC - Duke
Big 12 - Houston
Big East - St. John's
Big Ten - Michigan State
Big West - UC San Diego
CUSA - Liberty
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Quinnipiac
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Norfolk State
Mountain West - Utah State
SEC - Auburn
SWAC - Jackson State
WAC - Grand Canyon
As for the at-large field, the committee will get a NET team sheet for everyone in the top 105 of the NET, as well as any conference regular season champion (and auto bid, which teams we have listed above). Those team sheets look like this:
Here is the list of all 83 other teams, then, that get at least initial consideration for an at-large bid (not including the 31 above that are already in conversation), spoilered for long list:
That's a sizeable 114 teams that the committee at least sees once and then has to pare down to 68, which makes it nearly impossible for them to miss a team worthy of the field. Typically, for smaller conferences that get one bid, if the favorite loses after they've already been inserted into the bracket, they'll just do a team swap since it doesn't matter a whole lot. Exceptions could happen in cases where a heavy underdog wins a bid and would be in the first four as a result. Otherwise, the difference between, say, a 15 seed resume and a 16 seed resume isn't substantial enough that they'd reconfigure all those teams for an unexpected tournament winner or two.
This post is long enough, so I'll make another one later with the next steps in the process.
First things first, 68 teams make the tournament. There are 31 conferences that receive automatic bids (down from 32 last year, thanks Pac-12!), which leaves 37 at large bids available to be chosen from the field.
The current 14 automatic bids locked in:
ASUN - Lipscomb
Big Sky (they called their conference tournament Starch Madness this season which is adorable) - Montana
Big South - High Point
CAA - UNC Wilmington
Horizon - Robert Morris
MVC - Drake
NEC - Saint Francis (PA)
OVC - SIU Edwardsville
Patriot - American
Southern - Wofford
Southland - McNeese
Summit - Omaha
Sun Belt - Troy
WCC - Gonzaga
The remaining 17 auto bids are still in the midst of conference tournaments, so here's the highest NET team still competing for each of those:
America East - Bryant
American - Memphis
Atlantic 10 - VCU
ACC - Duke
Big 12 - Houston
Big East - St. John's
Big Ten - Michigan State
Big West - UC San Diego
CUSA - Liberty
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Quinnipiac
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Norfolk State
Mountain West - Utah State
SEC - Auburn
SWAC - Jackson State
WAC - Grand Canyon
As for the at-large field, the committee will get a NET team sheet for everyone in the top 105 of the NET, as well as any conference regular season champion (and auto bid, which teams we have listed above). Those team sheets look like this:
Here is the list of all 83 other teams, then, that get at least initial consideration for an at-large bid (not including the 31 above that are already in conversation), spoilered for long list:
Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Arkansas State, Baylor, Boise State, Bradley, Butler, BYU, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Colorado State, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Florida, Florida State, George Mason, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Texas, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, Saint Mary's College, San Diego State, San Francisco, Santa Clara, SMU, South Carolina, Southern, Stanford, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UC Irvine, UCF, UCLA, UNLV, USC, Utah, Utah Valley, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
That's a sizeable 114 teams that the committee at least sees once and then has to pare down to 68, which makes it nearly impossible for them to miss a team worthy of the field. Typically, for smaller conferences that get one bid, if the favorite loses after they've already been inserted into the bracket, they'll just do a team swap since it doesn't matter a whole lot. Exceptions could happen in cases where a heavy underdog wins a bid and would be in the first four as a result. Otherwise, the difference between, say, a 15 seed resume and a 16 seed resume isn't substantial enough that they'd reconfigure all those teams for an unexpected tournament winner or two.
This post is long enough, so I'll make another one later with the next steps in the process.
illini55
- The Villages, FL
Give me the four seed so when we beat the one seed in Round 3, our schedule is easier.
Duke started 0 for 14 from 3 and Flagg is in a wheelchair. Give me the 4 or 5 in Duke's region. 
Got a hypothetical question...
If every 4 seed was a B1G team, and we deserved a 5 seed, would the committee drop us to a 6 seed just to avoid that conference vs conference matchup?
If every 4 seed was a B1G team, and we deserved a 5 seed, would the committee drop us to a 6 seed just to avoid that conference vs conference matchup?
My understanding is yes.
It used to be a rule, but with so many teams from the same conference in brackets these days (SEC could very well have 13-14) they've dropped it recently, so you could face a conference matchup in the second round. Depends how careful the committee wants to be with non-SEC teams.
I thought they explicitly said seed lines are not matchup based. If certain matchups are unavoidable they won’t bump teams one way or another.
At this point the only rule they follow (other than the BYU accommodation) is to avoid first round rematches whenever possible. There have been conference matchups in the second round of the tournament in recent years.
It's still a rule, as of yesterday, for anyone we have played 2 or 3 times.
Building the brackets: A deep dive on the NCAA tournament selection and seeding process - NCAA.org
How do teams get selected and seeded for the NCAA Division I Men's and Women's Basketball Championships? Take a deep dive into the March Madness selection process,
www.ncaa.org
They *can* be relaxed if a conference has 9 or more teams in the NCAA tournament. But teams can be moved up or down a seed line to meet bracketing principles.
From rules updated this fall (because of the anticipation of SEC/B1G craziness due to having 18 teams): https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/images/2025/01/10/2025 Principles and Procedures.pdf
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