Week of 3/10 Bracketology

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#3      
21ChampaignSt
I give you the Ultimate March Madness Match Up Conspiracy Theory Cheat Sheet. Being matched up in the same quadrant as any of these teams is almost certainly proof that the committee adjusts seeding to give the public the juiciest, most scintillating reason for tuning in. Never mind sports betting or their rooting interests - THIS is what drives March Madness viewership. Quite impressive that, on top of everything else that goes into selecting and seeding the field, the committee also has these types of storylines in the back of their head for all 68 teams.

TeamProjected SeedStoryline
Auburn1Satan
Duke1Rematch of the Massacre at MSG
Houston12022 tournament rematch
IDKWTI
Florida1Lon Kruger Bowl
Alabama2Regular season rematch
Tennessee2Regular season rematch
MSU2Conference rival
Wisconsin3Conference rival
Kentucky3OA return game
Iowa St.4Rematch of 2024 S16
Purdue4Conference rival
Maryland4Conference rival
Arizona401 and 05 E8 rematch
Michigan5Conference rival
Oregon5Conference rival
Missouri6Non-con rival
Louisville6Tre White return game
Ole Miss6Exhibition rematch
UCLA6Conference rival
Skyy
BYU7Demin vs KJ
Kansas7Bill Self + Hunter Dickinson
Memphis8Dain game
Mississippi St.8RJ game
UConn8Rematch of 2024 E8
Gonzaga8Gentry
West Virginia10Law firm of Frazier, Harris, & Hansberry
Arkansas10Regular season rematch
Big T vs Big Z
Oklahoma11Lon Kruger Bowl
Jeremiah Fears
Indiana11Conference rival
Ohio St.11Conference rival
Xavier11Indy Illini Bowl
Akron13John Groce
SIU-E16In-state rival
Regular season rematch
 
#4      
Illini in Italy
1741612830128.gif


The numbers say a 5 seed.
 
#5      
The Galloping Ghost
21ChampaignSt said:
I give you the Ultimate March Madness Match Up Conspiracy Theory Cheat Sheet. Being matched up in the same quadrant as any of these teams is almost certainly proof that the committee adjusts seeding to give the public the juiciest, most scintillating reason for tuning in. Never mind sports betting or their rooting interests - THIS is what drives March Madness viewership. Quite impressive that, on top of everything else that goes into selecting and seeding the field, the committee also has these types of storylines in the back of their head for all 68 teams.

TeamProjected SeedStoryline
Auburn1Satan
Duke1Rematch of the Massacre at MSG
Houston12022 tournament rematch
IDKWTI
Florida1Lon Kruger Bowl
Alabama2Regular season rematch
Tennessee2Regular season rematch
MSU2Conference rival
Wisconsin3Conference rival
Kentucky3OA return game
Iowa St.4Rematch of 2024 S16
Purdue4Conference rival
Maryland4Conference rival
Arizona401 and 05 E8 rematch
Michigan5Conference rival
Oregon5Conference rival
Missouri6Non-con rival
Louisville6Tre White return game
Ole Miss6Exhibition rematch
UCLA6Conference rival
Skyy
BYU7Demin vs KJ
Kansas7Bill Self + Hunter Dickinson
Memphis8Dain game
Mississippi St.8RJ game
UConn8Rematch of 2024 E8
Gonzaga8Gentry
West Virginia10Law firm of Frazier, Harris, & Hansberry
Arkansas10Regular season rematch
Big T vs Big Z
Oklahoma11Lon Kruger Bowl
Jeremiah Fears
Indiana11Conference rival
Ohio St.11Conference rival
Xavier11Indy Illini Bowl
Akron13John Groce
SIU-E16In-state rival
Regular season rematch
Click to expand...
Yup. What's more likely? A program with 120 years of history happens to have developed narratives around many matchups and if you're a sicko posting on a message board you care enough to remember those narratives. Or, the committee is actively combing through our specific program's history to find the best narratives, seeds, logic, and everything else be damned.

The Selection Committee is just a group of people trapped in a room who received minimal training, trying to complete a big and highly scrutinized job in a short amount of time. More likely than some grand conspiracy, by Friday they're all so tired of looking at team sheets and numbers that they start to get sloppy, throw some teams on some seed lines that aren't immediately bracket breaking, and call it good enough. And as a fan, sometimes it works out for you and sometimes it doesn't.
 
#7      
jrichisamazing
There was some talk about whether or not we could be seeded above St Marys in the last thread.

They play tonight against Pepperdine, who had a massive upset against Santa Clara last night. Let's hope they have more magic in them.
 
#8      
the juiceman cometh
The Galloping Ghost said:
Yup. What's more likely? A program with 120 years of history happens to have developed narratives around many matchups and if you're a sicko posting on a message board you care enough to remember those narratives. Or, the committee is actively combing through our specific program's history to find the best narratives, seeds, logic, and everything else be damned.

The Selection Committee is just a group of people trapped in a room who received minimal training, trying to complete a big and highly scrutinized job in a short amount of time. More likely than some grand conspiracy, by Friday they're all so tired of looking at team sheets and numbers that they start to get sloppy, throw some teams on some seed lines that aren't immediately bracket breaking, and call it good enough. And as a fan, sometimes it works out for you and sometimes it doesn't.
Click to expand...
What's more, you can actually see who is on the selection committee. It's not some shadowy sinister organization. It's a rotating group of athletic directors and conference commissioners. My understanding of the rules is that the ADs have to leave the room when their own team is being discussed, and the conference commissioners when any team in their conference is being discussed. ADs are allowed to be present if other schools from their conference are being discussed, but cannot speak unless asked to do so.

Anyway, this is the list of current selectors: https://hoopshd.com/ncaa-selection-committee/

Which of these people do the conspiracy theorists think has an axe to grind against Illinois?
 
#10      
illinifan1987
21ChampaignSt said:
I give you the Ultimate March Madness Match Up Conspiracy Theory Cheat Sheet. Being matched up in the same quadrant as any of these teams is almost certainly proof that the committee adjusts seeding to give the public the juiciest, most scintillating reason for tuning in. Never mind sports betting or their rooting interests - THIS is what drives March Madness viewership. Quite impressive that, on top of everything else that goes into selecting and seeding the field, the committee also has these types of storylines in the back of their head for all 68 teams.

TeamProjected SeedStoryline
Auburn1Satan
Duke1Rematch of the Massacre at MSG
Houston12022 tournament rematch
IDKWTI
Florida1Lon Kruger Bowl
Alabama2Regular season rematch
Tennessee2Regular season rematch
MSU2Conference rival
Wisconsin3Conference rival
Kentucky3OA return game
Iowa St.4Rematch of 2024 S16
Purdue4Conference rival
Maryland4Conference rival
Arizona401 and 05 E8 rematch
Michigan5Conference rival
Oregon5Conference rival
Missouri6Non-con rival
Louisville6Tre White return game
Ole Miss6Exhibition rematch
UCLA6Conference rival
Skyy
BYU7Demin vs KJ
Kansas7Bill Self + Hunter Dickinson
Memphis8Dain game
Mississippi St.8RJ game
UConn8Rematch of 2024 E8
Gonzaga8Gentry
West Virginia10Law firm of Frazier, Harris, & Hansberry
Arkansas10Regular season rematch
Big T vs Big Z
Oklahoma11Lon Kruger Bowl
Jeremiah Fears
Indiana11Conference rival
Ohio St.11Conference rival
Xavier11Indy Illini Bowl
Akron13John Groce
SIU-E16In-state rival
Regular season rematch
Click to expand...
i see what you did there bill hader GIF
 
#11      
Illwinsagain
21ChampaignSt said:
I give you the Ultimate March Madness Match Up Conspiracy Theory Cheat Sheet. Being matched up in the same quadrant as any of these teams is almost certainly proof that the committee adjusts seeding to give the public the juiciest, most scintillating reason for tuning in. Never mind sports betting or their rooting interests - THIS is what drives March Madness viewership. Quite impressive that, on top of everything else that goes into selecting and seeding the field, the committee also has these types of storylines in the back of their head for all 68 teams.

TeamProjected SeedStoryline
Auburn1Satan
Duke1Rematch of the Massacre at MSG
Houston12022 tournament rematch
IDKWTI
Florida1Lon Kruger Bowl
Alabama2Regular season rematch
Tennessee2Regular season rematch
MSU2Conference rival
Wisconsin3Conference rival
Kentucky3OA return game
Iowa St.4Rematch of 2024 S16
Purdue4Conference rival
Maryland4Conference rival
Arizona401 and 05 E8 rematch
Michigan5Conference rival
Oregon5Conference rival
Missouri6Non-con rival
Louisville6Tre White return game
Ole Miss6Exhibition rematch
UCLA6Conference rival
Skyy
BYU7Demin vs KJ
Kansas7Bill Self + Hunter Dickinson
Memphis8Dain game
Mississippi St.8RJ game
UConn8Rematch of 2024 E8
Gonzaga8Gentry
West Virginia10Law firm of Frazier, Harris, & Hansberry
Arkansas10Regular season rematch
Big T vs Big Z
Oklahoma11Lon Kruger Bowl
Jeremiah Fears
Indiana11Conference rival
Ohio St.11Conference rival
Xavier11Indy Illini Bowl
Akron13John Groce
SIU-E16In-state rival
Regular season rematch
Click to expand...
Well done! Surprised you left off the Kentucky "rule change game".
 
#12      
Bleedorangeandblue44
the juiceman cometh said:
What's more, you can actually see who is on the selection committee. It's not some shadowy sinister organization. It's a rotating group of athletic directors and conference commissioners. My understanding of the rules is that the ADs have to leave the room when their own team is being discussed, and the conference commissioners when any team in their conference is being discussed. ADs are allowed to be present if other schools from their conference are being discussed, but cannot speak unless asked to do so.

Anyway, this is the list of current selectors: https://hoopshd.com/ncaa-selection-committee/

Which of these people do the conspiracy theorists think has an axe to grind against Illinois?
Click to expand...
It's so silly, and we hear it every. single. year.

All these schools have so many years of storylines and rivals, and now you have the portal when everyone has a much higher chance of playing against a former player. Or coach.

And to think Illinois of all teams is the one they are trying to get a storyline for? How about Kentucky as a 3 seed and Arkansas as an 11.

I'm sure when the pairings come out Sunday there will be a ton of these type of matchups we all look forward to, but I don't think it's a conspiracy that's the reason for it.
 
#13      
TheDukeUIUC
21ChampaignSt said:
I give you the Ultimate March Madness Match Up Conspiracy Theory Cheat Sheet. Being matched up in the same quadrant as any of these teams is almost certainly proof that the committee adjusts seeding to give the public the juiciest, most scintillating reason for tuning in. Never mind sports betting or their rooting interests - THIS is what drives March Madness viewership. Quite impressive that, on top of everything else that goes into selecting and seeding the field, the committee also has these types of storylines in the back of their head for all 68 teams.

TeamProjected SeedStoryline
Auburn1Satan
Duke1Rematch of the Massacre at MSG
Houston12022 tournament rematch
IDKWTI
Florida1Lon Kruger Bowl
Alabama2Regular season rematch
Tennessee2Regular season rematch
MSU2Conference rival
Wisconsin3Conference rival
Kentucky3OA return game
Iowa St.4Rematch of 2024 S16
Purdue4Conference rival
Maryland4Conference rival
Arizona401 and 05 E8 rematch
Michigan5Conference rival
Oregon5Conference rival
Missouri6Non-con rival
Louisville6Tre White return game
Ole Miss6Exhibition rematch
UCLA6Conference rival
Skyy
BYU7Demin vs KJ
Kansas7Bill Self + Hunter Dickinson
Memphis8Dain game
Mississippi St.8RJ game
UConn8Rematch of 2024 E8
Gonzaga8Gentry
West Virginia10Law firm of Frazier, Harris, & Hansberry
Arkansas10Regular season rematch
Big T vs Big Z
Oklahoma11Lon Kruger Bowl
Jeremiah Fears
Indiana11Conference rival
Ohio St.11Conference rival
Xavier11Indy Illini Bowl
Akron13John Groce
SIU-E16In-state rival
Regular season rematch
Click to expand...
Missed the Boswell angle with Arizona
 
#15      
Chukwuwumba
21ChampaignSt said:
I give you the Ultimate March Madness Match Up Conspiracy Theory Cheat Sheet. Being matched up in the same quadrant as any of these teams is almost certainly proof that the committee adjusts seeding to give the public the juiciest, most scintillating reason for tuning in. Never mind sports betting or their rooting interests - THIS is what drives March Madness viewership. Quite impressive that, on top of everything else that goes into selecting and seeding the field, the committee also has these types of storylines in the back of their head for all 68 teams.

TeamProjected SeedStoryline
Auburn1Satan
Duke1Rematch of the Massacre at MSG
Houston12022 tournament rematch
IDKWTI
Florida1Lon Kruger Bowl
Alabama2Regular season rematch
Tennessee2Regular season rematch
MSU2Conference rival
Wisconsin3Conference rival
Kentucky3OA return game
Iowa St.4Rematch of 2024 S16
Purdue4Conference rival
Maryland4Conference rival
Arizona401 and 05 E8 rematch
Michigan5Conference rival
Oregon5Conference rival
Missouri6Non-con rival
Louisville6Tre White return game
Ole Miss6Exhibition rematch
UCLA6Conference rival
Skyy
BYU7Demin vs KJ
Kansas7Bill Self + Hunter Dickinson
Memphis8Dain game
Mississippi St.8RJ game
UConn8Rematch of 2024 E8
Gonzaga8Gentry
West Virginia10Law firm of Frazier, Harris, & Hansberry
Arkansas10Regular season rematch
Big T vs Big Z
Oklahoma11Lon Kruger Bowl
Jeremiah Fears
Indiana11Conference rival
Ohio St.11Conference rival
Xavier11Indy Illini Bowl
Akron13John Groce
SIU-E16In-state rival
Regular season rematch
Click to expand...
Porter Moser at OU (Loyola coach)
 
#16      
Chukwuwumba
the juiceman cometh said:
What's more, you can actually see who is on the selection committee. It's not some shadowy sinister organization. It's a rotating group of athletic directors and conference commissioners. My understanding of the rules is that the ADs have to leave the room when their own team is being discussed, and the conference commissioners when any team in their conference is being discussed. ADs are allowed to be present if other schools from their conference are being discussed, but cannot speak unless asked to do so.

Anyway, this is the list of current selectors: https://hoopshd.com/ncaa-selection-committee/

Which of these people do the conspiracy theorists think has an axe to grind against Illinois?
Click to expand...
I guess UNC will be in the tourney.
 
#18      
21ChampaignSt
Illwinsagain said:
Well done! Surprised you left off the Kentucky "rule change game".
Click to expand...
TheDukeUIUC said:
Missed the Boswell angle with Arizona
Click to expand...
Good calls!

Guest said:
I certainly could be wrong but I think 21ChampaignSt’s post was just a fun exercise. I enjoyed reading it, but I don’t believe it, and I don’t think 21ChampaignSt does either.
Click to expand...
Bingo. Just having a little fun. I think the storylines are good message board fodder, but we're the 1% who cares about such things. The committee's job is already complicated enough without introducing hundreds if not thousands of storyline variables into their calculus.
 
#20      
HereSoIDontGetFined
I know people complained about Brad talking up how sick the team was during the plague of January and February, but looking at the team sheet this morning, it occurs to me that he was low key lobbying for a higher seed, pointing to evidence of how we play when everyone is healthy versus when the team is sick or injured. Will the committee listen?
 
#21      
PepeSilvia
illinitiger said:
Kinda wild to see uconn and Gonzaga as 8 seeds..
Click to expand...
If Gonzaga gets the right matchup they are very capable of beating these one seeds.

I honestly don't know if i a single 1 seed should be comfortable against Gonzaga. They are a very experienced team(6 seniors in their 7/8 man rotation), have two bigs that can stretch the floor in Gregg and Huff, a very experienced point guard in Nembhard and two other guards that can score in Battle and Hickman. Plus I didn't even mention their best player in Ike.

Gonzaga has been way more inconsistent then we typically see but if they draw an 8 seed it's going to be like when the Illini drew another top 10 Kenpom team in Loyola in the 2nd Rd except Gonzaga is more talented.

I would immediately put Houston on upset alert if they draw Gonzaga in Rd two but it wouldnt surprise me to see them beat a young Duke team that's been relatively unchallenged by a very week ACC.
 
#22      
RollChief
Kudos @21ChampaignSt enjoyed your post, generally it's fun to think about the story line for each one. Narratives are what keep everyone bought in and what ultimately makes the NCAA tournament the greatest tournament in sports.

Not sure how many here listen to Pardon My Take, but I remember last year there was a region that included matchups for the 3 cohosts and 1 of the interns who happens to be a huge college basketball fan. There was no way this was a coincidence and I'm sure it added a ton of eyes to a seeminly mundane Wisky/JMU Duke/Vermont subbracket:

1741621813675.png
 
#23      
Fighter of the Nightman
@RML, I can no longer post your post about top seeds only getting de facto home games some of the time, but you raise a good point. I would hate to see any round of the NCAA Tournament ever leave neutral site locations, as I think that "trip" to another city makes it a sort of destination and unique event. However, it does suck that schools like Duke or UNC seem to be practically guaranteed a First Weekend location instate 90% of years they get a top 4 seed, whereas some programs in states that don't often get sites get screwed.

This would NEVER work, but in my dream world, venues could be "at the ready" to host, and after the selections are announced, the top 8 teams (i.e., #1 and #2 seeds) would get a neutral site location that is effectively a home game, as long as that city has the appropriate arena and infrastructure to host. Using this year's top 8 for the current Bracket Matrix, it might look something like this for each team's First and Second Round games:

#1 Auburn - Atlanta, GA (State Farm Arena)
#1 Duke - Raleigh, NC (Lenovo Center - NC State's arena)
#1 Houston - Houston, TX (Toyota Center)
#1 Florida - Orlando, FL (Kia Center)
#2 Alabama - Birmingham, AL (Legacy Arena - where we played 'Bama)
#2 Tennessee - Nashville, TN (Bridgestone Arena)
#2 Michigan State - Detroit, MI (Little Caesars Arena)
#2 St. John's - New York, NY (Madison Square Garden - not technically their home arena!)

Again, probably could never happen logistically, but this would give a special honorary status for #1 and #2 seeds. You could then "protect" #3 and #4 seeds in the way that is already done, where the other locations are pre-determined, and you just try your best to get a top seed in a location that is close to home (e.g., using 2025 locations, trying to get #3 Wisconsin in Milwaukee).
 
#25      
RML
Lol, I looked at the blinded chart of Illinois' metrics vs. those of the projected seeds on one line, mistakenly thinking it was the projected seven seeds, and thought, well it is fair to lump us in with these guys, all of these resumes seem fairly close. Then, on closing the file, saw that it was actually a comparison of us v. the projected THREE seeds.
Woof!
 
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