Week of 3/2 Bracketology

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#301      
DeonThomas
INTERESTING..........assuming we take care of business today @ MD:

Our 5 conference losses in 2026 will come at the hands of the 5 best teams (besides ourselves), even if the standings shift slightly based upon today's outcomes.

#1 Michigan - H
#2 Nebraska - H (last second shot; and we of course beat them in Lincoln, NE)
#3 Michigan St - A (overtime)
#4 No, that's us -- Illinois
#5 Wisconsin - H (overtime)
#6 UCLA - A (last second shot)

14-0 against the bottom 12 teams. No truly humiliating upsets!
 
#302      
Dan
#303      
Fly Illini Fly!
Dan said:
IL Big Ten Tournament scenarios

Illinois beats Maryland, and Iowa beats Nebraska = Illinois the 3 seed (and faces 6 UCLA or 11 Min or 14 Rut)

Illinois beats Maryland, and Nebraska beats Iowa = Illinois the 4 seed (and faces 5 Wis or 12 Wash or 13 USC)

Illinois loses to Maryland = Illinois the 5 seed (would face 4 Wis if victorious vs Wash/USC winner)

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030527705242903033

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030528175516553652
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Interesting fact is that if Oregon didn't beat Wiscy we wouldn't have the double bye (unless Iowa wins today).

That exact Oregon team -- that looked so horrible against us -- almost won at Mackey too.
 
#304      
rdk573
I’m starting to believe even if we lose the first BTT game that we will still get the last #2. I think only Iowa State can jump us from the 3. I think Purdue is out. And no way does Nebraska and MSU both get #2s. Don’t see anyone from the #4 line vaulting up either
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Regardless,other than Michigan, I am losing confidence that any other big 10 team, including us will go far in the tournament and get beyond the SW16
 
#306      
Second place is 1st loser
INTERESTING..........assuming we take care of business today @ MD:

Our 5 conference losses in 2026 will come at the hands of the 5 best teams (besides ourselves), even if the standings shift slightly based upon today's outcomes.

#1 Michigan - H
#2 Nebraska - H (last second shot; and we of course beat them in Lincoln, NE)
#3 Michigan St - A (overtime)
#4 No, that's us -- Illinois
#5 Wisconsin - H (overtime)
#6 UCLA - A (last second shot)

14-0 against the bottom 12 teams. No truly humiliating upsets!
Click to expand...
There's still game today. Let's start there.
 
#307      
CleverHandle1
INTERESTING..........assuming we take care of business today @ MD:

Our 5 conference losses in 2026 will come at the hands of the 5 best teams (besides ourselves), even if the standings shift slightly based upon today's outcomes.

#1 Michigan - H
#2 Nebraska - H (last second shot; and we of course beat them in Lincoln, NE)
#3 Michigan St - A (overtime)
#4 No, that's us -- Illinois
#5 Wisconsin - H (overtime)
#6 UCLA - A (last second shot)

14-0 against the bottom 12 teams. No truly humiliating upsets!
Click to expand...
For me, the three home losses (as a total) are unacceptable, especially with this year's strong team.

However, I understand the Michigan loss. Without two starters, I get the Wisky loss. Nebraska? Yes, they're good, but that one hurt.
 
#308      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Piotyr said:
13 bubble teams lost today. Not only is Miami OH going to make the tourney with a loss, they won't be anywhere near Dayton.
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Indiana is most likely to play PU in the big ten tournament. If they win, I think IU deserves a spot over them should it be an at large scenario. They’ll have home wins against Wisconsin and Purdue, road win at UCLA, neutral court win against Purdue. Miami (OH) best win is Akron at home.

Indiana also has zero bad losses. Only 2 Q2 losses - one of them USC which is one spot away from being Q1.

It’s why these lower level leagues have remained one bid leagues almost exclusively. And if we’re being honest, if Miami (OH) played in the BIG, they’d be Northwestern.
 
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#311      
DeonThomas
Dan said:
IL Big Ten Tournament scenarios

A. Illinois beats Maryland, and Iowa beats Nebraska = Illinois the 3 seed (and faces 6 UCLA or 11 Min or 14 Rut)

B. Illinois beats Maryland, and Nebraska beats Iowa = Illinois the 4 seed (and faces 5 Wis or 12 Wash or 13 USC)

C. Illinois loses to Maryland = Illinois the 5 seed (would face 4 Wis if victorious vs Wash/USC winner)
Click to expand...


Dan said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2030527705242903033

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030528175516553652
Click to expand...
I'll take "Option A" for $500, Alex.......
 
#312      
fatboyslim
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Indiana is most likely to play PU in the big ten tournament. If they win, I think IU deserves a spot over them should it be an at large scenario. They’ll have home wins against Wisconsin and Purdue, road win at UCLA, neutral court win against Purdue. Miami (OH) best win is Akron at home.

Indiana also has zero bad losses. Only 2 Q2 losses - one of them USC which is one spot away from being Q1.

It’s why these lower level leagues have remained one bid leagues almost exclusively. And if we’re being honest, if Miami (OH) played in the BIG, they’d be Northwestern.
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No bad losses is very loose term. Losing at Minnesota, USC and Northwestern at home is pretty bad. That is why this quad system to me is very flawed. No one with common sense is going to look at those losses as good losses even though technically they aren’t.

Also comparing IU and Miami of Ohio is not a valid one and not one the committee is looking at. Miami is in due to having an undefeated season. Whether that is fair to a team like IU is irrelevant. IU is going to be compared to the last 3-4 at large teams on the bubble not Miami.
 
#318      
TheodoreRex
Welp... Risked it a little based on what we should end up statistically.. Bought tickets for session 6 on Friday... Here's to hoping

First time I've been able to go to the Big Ten Tourney- Can't wait!
 
#320      
Epsilon
IL Big Ten Tournament scenarios

Illinois beats Maryland, and Iowa beats Nebraska = Illinois the 3 seed (and faces 6 UCLA or 11 Min or 14 Rut)

Illinois beats Maryland, and Nebraska beats Iowa = Illinois the 4 seed (and faces 5 Wis or 12 Wash or 13 USC)

Illinois loses to Maryland = Illinois the 5 seed (would face 4 Wis if victorious vs Wash/USC winner)

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030527705242903033

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030528175516553652
Click to expand...
What happened to us only having a 1% chance at a 5 seed in the B1G tournament? Looks like if we lose we’re a 5 seed in all of these scenarios. Granted, it’s not likely we’ll blow this game, but what happened that was so unexpected?
 
#321      
Piotyr
Metrics bracket update!

Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning for any team still eligible in that conference, locked auto bids in bold):
ACC - Duke (1)
B1G - Michigan (2)
B12 - Arizona (3)
SEC - Florida (4)
WCC - Gonzaga (6)
BE - UConn (9)
A10 - Saint Louis (27)
MW - Utah State (29)
American - Tulsa (46)
MAC - Akron (52) (yes Akron has a higher NET right now)
SLnd - McNeese (62)
Ivy - Yale (64)
MVC - Northern Iowa (77)
BSth - High Point (79)
WAC - Utah Valley (84)
CAA - Hofstra (91)
CUSA - Liberty (100)
BW - Hawaii (113)
Summit - North Dakota State (115)
Pat - Navy (126)
BSky - Montana State (127)
SoCon - ETSU (129)
Horz - Wright St. (134)
SB - Troy (138)
ASun -Central Arkansas (161)
OVC - Tennessee State (170)
MAAC - Merrimack (179)
NEC - LIU (199)
MEAC - Howard (201)
AEast - UMBC (206)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (255)

At-large field (top 37 resume average): Michigan State, Houston, Nebraska, Alabama, Virginia, Illinois, Iowa State, Purdue, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kansas, St. John's, North Carolina, Texas Tech, Villanova, Saint Mary's, Wisconsin, Miami OH, Tennessee, Louisville, BYU, Georgia, Miami FL, Kentucky, UCLA, TCU, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Iowa, Missouri, UCF, Santa Clara, VCU, Texas, NC State, Auburn

Just missed: Indiana, SMU, California, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Stanford, USC, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):

1 (1). Duke (+0)
1 (1). Michigan (+0)
3 (1). Arizona (-0)
5 (1). Florida (+1)
4 (2). Illinois (-1)
6 (2). Houston (+11)
7 (2). Iowa State (+1)
6 (2). Purdue (-2)
9 (3). Gonzaga (+1)
10 (3). UConn (-1)
11 (3). Michigan State (+1)
12 (3). Texas Tech (+3)
13 (4). Louisville (+4)
14 (4). Nebraska (-3)
15 (4). Vanderbilt (+1)
16 (4). Tennessee (+4)
17 (5). Alabama (+2)
18 (5). Virginia (-4)
19 (5). Arkansas (-1)
20 (5). Kansas (-7)
21 (6). St. John's (+0)
22 (6). Saint Mary's (+0)
23 (6). Wisconsin (+7)
24 (6). Iowa (-1)
25 (7). North Carolina (+2)
26 (7). Ohio State (+14)
27 (7). BYU (-3)
28 (7). Kentucky (+4)
29 (8). UCLA (+12)
30 (8). Villanova (+2)
31 (8). Miami FL (+2)
32 (8). Georgia (+4)
33 (9). Utah State (-7)
34 (9). Saint Louis (-9)
35 (9). Santa Clara (+0)
36 (9). Clemson (-2)
37 (10). NC State (-9)
38 (10). Texas A&M (-1)
39 (10). Texas (+0)
40 (10). Auburn (-2)
41 (11). TCU (+2)
42 (11*). VCU (NEW)
43 (11*). Missouri (+1)
44 (11). Tulsa (+1)
45 (11*). UCF (-2)
46 (11*). Miami OH (+3)
47 (12). Akron (NEW)
48 (12). McNeese (+0)
47 (12). Northern Iowa (NEW)
50 (12). Yale (+0)
51 (13). Utah Valley (+0)
52 (13). High Point (+0)
53 (13). Hofstra (NEW)
54 (13). Liberty (-1)
55 (14). Hawaii (+0)
56 (14). North Dakota State (+0)
57 (14). Navy (+1)
58 (14). Montana State (NEW)
59 (15). ETSU (-1)
60 (15). Wright State (+2)
61 (15). Troy (-2)
62 (15). Central Arkansas (NEW)
63 (16). Tennessee State (MEW)
63 (16). Merrimack (NEW)
65 (16*). LIU (+0)
66 (16*). Howard (+0)
67 (16*). UMBC (NEW)
68 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (+0)

First 4 out: Indiana, Cincinnati, SMU, San Diego State
Next 4 out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Florida, Boise State

Notes:
- Auburn is 16-15, and if I had the choice they would not be in. They are just barely floating above the cut line in resume, but below Cincinnati in efficiency. If I knew the committee, I'd say they were not in, but nobody is breaking down the door grabbing that spot, especially since everyone in the area lost this weekend.
- So many bubble teams losing caused Ohio State and UCLA's position to skyrocket. When every middling team is losing the same day, all it takes is 2 good wins in a week to jump up 12 spots in the soft middle of the bracket.
- This bracket is looking to be extremely top heavy again this year, as there is a surprising gap behind team 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 (like, nobody is in danger of getting passed here, those spots look solid, aka Illinois is clearly 5th right now, just win baby)
- Miami OH is not the favorite in the MAC tournament despite being 31-0. If they go 33-1 with a loss to Akron in the finals, I expect they'll be safely clear of the Dayton play-in and probably get slotted in as a 9 or 10 seed. Their WAB is 31st, better than locks Utah State and Saint Louis. The committee won't spend all this time talking up WAB and then not take Miami OH in the field as an at-large.
 
#322      
Piotyr
Also, Miami OH can play the "nobody wanted to play us" card all it wanted, the reason its efficiency metrics are so bad is because they just aren't beating anybody convincingly. Akron had effectively the same schedule, played Purdue and Yale and lost both, lost at Miami by 3, and still have a significantly better profile because they are beating the teams in their conference by an average of 15 points.
 
#323      
Piotyr
Also, keep an eye on a sneaky good 12/13 seed in Northern Iowa, who has played like a mid-40s team with their full roster, but spent 9 games without their best player mid season and lost 6 of those 7.
 
#324      
Piotyr
Navy just lost in their semifinal, so it'll be Lehigh-Boston U for the Patriot championship, and the winner probably gets shipped into the play-in game.
 
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