Kentucky in Lexington in 1984
Week of 3/2 Bracketology
- Status
I see Nebraska as a 3 seed in the Midwest in a couple of bracketology postings. Does that mean if the Illini fall to a 3 seed they could end up in Chicago?
I feel like we still got a little mojo left in that bottle against them. don't forget they beat us a few times in 2001 and we only paid back one of those games in 2005
Was at that #$@! game. Free throws.
First memory overall was watching Bill Walton play a perfect game against Memphis State.
First Illini memory was in '81. I was a senior in HS, had strep throat and luckily my parents happened to get ESPN added to our cable system the week of the tournament. I probably spent 15 hours a day watching games or game coverage - ESPN was just amazing back in the day.
We were lucky to hang on against Wyoming...I seem to recall Mark smith was fouled on a missed WY shot and made both to seal the win. Next game was against K-State, who had a strong history of overperforming in the tourney. I thought it would be a cakewalk, but as became a recurring pattern during the Henson era, we played poorly and lost to a less talented team.
'79 was the year everything changed....Magic vs Bird and NBC's coverage totally transformed the tourney
Tucker could not hit anything that game. KState slowed the game down and we played into their hand.
We went 10-23 in that game and lost by 3. Battle said after the Syracuse E8 game that they will not let FTs cost them like it did against Nova.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Put me in the camp that would be more concerned about the #2/3/6/7 seeds we'd be with rather than the #1 seed. Did it suck getting pummeled by UConn in 2024 and knowing we would have had a better shot vs. literally any other #1 seed? Of course ... but we were still in the Elite Eight, and it was already a successful season for that reason alone. All that is to say, the #1 seed has a few rounds to potentially get upset before we would face them, and I'll be a happy camper in general if we are IN the position to be playing a #1 seed!
With that said, here are the losses for the projected #1 seeds to teams currently in the Bracket Matrix. Numbers correspond to current projected Bracket Matrix seed. I'm also including the date of that loss for context.
#1 Duke
Dec. 20 - L 81-82 vs. #3 Texas Tech (New York, NY)
Feb. 7 - L 68-71 at #5 North Carolina
#1 Michigan
Jan. 2 - L 88-91 vs. #7 Wisconsin
Feb. 21 - L 63-68 vs. #1 Duke (Washington, DC)
#1 Arizona
Feb. 9 - L 78-82 at #4 Kansas
Feb. 14 - L 75-78 in OT vs. #3 Texas Tech
#1 UConn
Nov. 19 - L 67-71 vs. #1 Arizona
Feb. 6 - L 72-81 at #6 St. John's (NY)
Feb. 18 - L 84-91 vs. Creighton - NOT projected in the field
So judging based purely on this exercise, every #1 seed has at least proven capable of losing to a team they would play before us (i.e., a #4 seed or worse). However, there are clear differences by team.
(1) The obvious trend that jumps out at everyone is UConn not only has proven to be the most susceptible to going down before an Elite Eight (this doesn't even count their MANY close calls vs. bad teams), but they have also done it the most recently.
(2) The other three are all comparatively more impressive, but I actually think that ironically Michigan would be the most likely to slip up. When they're on, they're (IMO) the best team in the country ... but I think their "C+ Game" is noticeably worse than Arizona's or Duke's. We would need a hot shooting night and much improved defense, but I would take our chances vs. Michigan rather than Duke or Arizona any day.
(3) To me, Duke and Arizona are the same, especially because I would afford a bit of a "discount" to Duke's loss at rival UNC on a buzzer beater. Both of these teams are going to bring it the vast majority of nights, and it will take a great performance by their opponents PLUS an off night for them to go down, IMO. Not saying it won't happen, as there are surprises every year. However, these are the two I would say we want the least in our Region (and of course we will almost certainly get one of them, haha).
All in all, I would rank the likelihood that any of these #1 seeds go down before the Elite Eight like this:
1. UConn - They've had so many close calls and even wracked up one terrible loss to Creighton at home, and I'm guessing they will be a lot of people's picks for a Sweet Sixteen or even Second Round upset. With that said, count out Hurley at your own risk...
....
2. Michigan - They could just as easily blaze their way to a National Championship in dominant fashion, but if they have a game like at Northwestern or vs. Minnesota where they are a step off for most of it, a good team could capitalize and knock them off.
...
3. Arizona - They seem just as good as Duke, but never discount the "jinx" factor in March! Tommy Lloyd seems like a great coach, but he's had 3 top 2 seeds in the last 4 years, and they've all ended short of the Elite Eight (including a First Round upset to #15 Princeton in 2023). Unrelated to this specific team, but I think a lot of people forget that Arizona hasn't been to a Final Four since 1999 and only has 4 ever ... odd that so many give them the treatment like they're closer to a Blue Blood than an Illinois.
4. Duke - Just giving them the nod over Arizona purely because they've been to the "Mountain Top" of the Final Four as recently as last year ... could help calm some nerves in crunch time.
With that said, here are the losses for the projected #1 seeds to teams currently in the Bracket Matrix. Numbers correspond to current projected Bracket Matrix seed. I'm also including the date of that loss for context.
#1 Duke
Dec. 20 - L 81-82 vs. #3 Texas Tech (New York, NY)
Feb. 7 - L 68-71 at #5 North Carolina
#1 Michigan
Jan. 2 - L 88-91 vs. #7 Wisconsin
Feb. 21 - L 63-68 vs. #1 Duke (Washington, DC)
#1 Arizona
Feb. 9 - L 78-82 at #4 Kansas
Feb. 14 - L 75-78 in OT vs. #3 Texas Tech
#1 UConn
Nov. 19 - L 67-71 vs. #1 Arizona
Feb. 6 - L 72-81 at #6 St. John's (NY)
Feb. 18 - L 84-91 vs. Creighton - NOT projected in the field
So judging based purely on this exercise, every #1 seed has at least proven capable of losing to a team they would play before us (i.e., a #4 seed or worse). However, there are clear differences by team.
(1) The obvious trend that jumps out at everyone is UConn not only has proven to be the most susceptible to going down before an Elite Eight (this doesn't even count their MANY close calls vs. bad teams), but they have also done it the most recently.
(2) The other three are all comparatively more impressive, but I actually think that ironically Michigan would be the most likely to slip up. When they're on, they're (IMO) the best team in the country ... but I think their "C+ Game" is noticeably worse than Arizona's or Duke's. We would need a hot shooting night and much improved defense, but I would take our chances vs. Michigan rather than Duke or Arizona any day.
(3) To me, Duke and Arizona are the same, especially because I would afford a bit of a "discount" to Duke's loss at rival UNC on a buzzer beater. Both of these teams are going to bring it the vast majority of nights, and it will take a great performance by their opponents PLUS an off night for them to go down, IMO. Not saying it won't happen, as there are surprises every year. However, these are the two I would say we want the least in our Region (and of course we will almost certainly get one of them, haha).
All in all, I would rank the likelihood that any of these #1 seeds go down before the Elite Eight like this:
1. UConn - They've had so many close calls and even wracked up one terrible loss to Creighton at home, and I'm guessing they will be a lot of people's picks for a Sweet Sixteen or even Second Round upset. With that said, count out Hurley at your own risk...
....
2. Michigan - They could just as easily blaze their way to a National Championship in dominant fashion, but if they have a game like at Northwestern or vs. Minnesota where they are a step off for most of it, a good team could capitalize and knock them off.
...
3. Arizona - They seem just as good as Duke, but never discount the "jinx" factor in March! Tommy Lloyd seems like a great coach, but he's had 3 top 2 seeds in the last 4 years, and they've all ended short of the Elite Eight (including a First Round upset to #15 Princeton in 2023). Unrelated to this specific team, but I think a lot of people forget that Arizona hasn't been to a Final Four since 1999 and only has 4 ever ... odd that so many give them the treatment like they're closer to a Blue Blood than an Illinois.
4. Duke - Just giving them the nod over Arizona purely because they've been to the "Mountain Top" of the Final Four as recently as last year ... could help calm some nerves in crunch time.
If we are a 2 seed we could go to St Louis in the West Region. I think that is where we are. If we go with Lunardi’s bracket, we get either St Mary’s or SMU in the Round of 32 then a possible matchup with KU/UK in the S16 which would be fun to see.
Anywhere but DUKE. As a 2 seed, will not have to worry about SCUM. I would rather take my chances with UCONN and Arizona.
More on Michigan- how they perform without Cason these next games will be very telling, it's reminiscent of the #1 Virginia upset but at least for Michigan there's more time to get a feel for how the team will do without him.
I do think the media is undervaluing Cason at least in what I’ve seen.
Cadeau has been great, but part of Michigans magic this year is their chameleon ability to play a number of different lineups and looks, sit guys having an off night.
Cason is probably the best backup pg in the country. Not saying Michigans all of a sudden going to act like a middle of the pack big ten team but this isn’t some 10 min/game guy. He’s a big piece to their success.
Very infuriating. I legit thought that team could make the Final Four but they had to learn from it to set up the FF run in 89.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I agree. If anything, it puts them in a slightly worse position in the event of the tight whistle game in the tourney and Cadeau gets in foul trouble (like he was against us).
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
They finish with these games, using NET Rankings:
at #62 Oklahoma (Quad 1)
vs. #19 Arkansas (Quad 1)
Oklahoma has been up and down all year, but Mizzou could definitely steal one there ... I mean, the Sooners are still 15-14 overall. The Arkansas game could also be very interesting, as Mizzou is currently a #9 seed on the Bracket Matrix and could feel they are playing for their Tournament lives. Missouri is also currently tied for fourth in the SEC, so expecting them to pick up one SEC Tournament win isn't at all unrealistic.
I would say if they can go 2-1 in their next 3 games, they'll get to Quad 1 status ... and I am cautiously optimistic!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
FWIW, here are the other borderline wins/losses that could switch things up on us over the next week plus.
Quad 1A
- #13 Texas Tech needs to stay in the top 15 to remain a Quad 1A win.
- #39 UCLA needs to stay in the top 40 to remain a Quad 1A loss
Other Quad 1
- #72 Northwestern needs to stay in the top 75 to remain a Quad 1 win (Evanston).
Quad 2
- #32 Wisconsin needs to get into the top 30 to become a Quad 1 loss.
- #53 Missouri needs to get into the top 50 to become a Quad 1 win.
- #72 Northwestern needs to stay in the top 75 to remain a Quad 2 win (Champaign).
These were other Quad 1A, Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins/losses of ours that I didn't classify as close enough to be borderline:
Quad 1 A | #1-15 Home, #1-25 Neutral, #1-40 Away
L vs. #2 Michigan
L vs. #8 UConn (New York, NY)
W at #9 Purdue
L at #11 Michigan State
W at #12 Nebraska
L vs. #12 Nebraska
L vs. #16 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W vs. #20 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W at #28 Iowa
W at #34 Ohio State
Other Quad 1 | #16-30 Home, #26-50 Neutral, #41-75 Away
W at #64 USC
Quad 2 | #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
W vs. #40 Indiana
W vs. #61 Washington
W vs. #68 Minnesota
It's looking like we will likely get another Quad 1A opportunity on Friday in the BTT if Purdue is the #5 seed and we are the #4 ... need to win that.
Quad 1A
- #13 Texas Tech needs to stay in the top 15 to remain a Quad 1A win.
- #39 UCLA needs to stay in the top 40 to remain a Quad 1A loss
Other Quad 1
- #72 Northwestern needs to stay in the top 75 to remain a Quad 1 win (Evanston).
Quad 2
- #32 Wisconsin needs to get into the top 30 to become a Quad 1 loss.
- #53 Missouri needs to get into the top 50 to become a Quad 1 win.
- #72 Northwestern needs to stay in the top 75 to remain a Quad 2 win (Champaign).
These were other Quad 1A, Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins/losses of ours that I didn't classify as close enough to be borderline:
Quad 1 A | #1-15 Home, #1-25 Neutral, #1-40 Away
L vs. #2 Michigan
L vs. #8 UConn (New York, NY)
W at #9 Purdue
L at #11 Michigan State
W at #12 Nebraska
L vs. #12 Nebraska
L vs. #16 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W vs. #20 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W at #28 Iowa
W at #34 Ohio State
Other Quad 1 | #16-30 Home, #26-50 Neutral, #41-75 Away
W at #64 USC
Quad 2 | #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
W vs. #40 Indiana
W vs. #61 Washington
W vs. #68 Minnesota
It's looking like we will likely get another Quad 1A opportunity on Friday in the BTT if Purdue is the #5 seed and we are the #4 ... need to win that.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
^ As a follow-up to this, this is our current resume:
Record: 22-7
NET: #5
Road Record: 7-2
vs. Quad 1A: 6-6
vs. Quad 1: 8-6
vs. Quad 2: 6-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
And if we beat Oregon, beat Maryland, beat (presumably) Purdue next Friday AND everything above broke our way, our resume would look like this:
Record: 25-7
NET: #5
Road Record: 8-2
vs. Quad 1A: 7-6
vs. Quad 1: 10-7
vs. Quad 2: 5-0
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
Would CERTAINLY solidify us as a #2 seed...
Record: 22-7
NET: #5
Road Record: 7-2
vs. Quad 1A: 6-6
vs. Quad 1: 8-6
vs. Quad 2: 6-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
And if we beat Oregon, beat Maryland, beat (presumably) Purdue next Friday AND everything above broke our way, our resume would look like this:
Record: 25-7
NET: #5
Road Record: 8-2
vs. Quad 1A: 7-6
vs. Quad 1: 10-7
vs. Quad 2: 5-0
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
Would CERTAINLY solidify us as a #2 seed...
LouHenson
- Naples Florida
Excellent analysis. Much of it is very possible. I think if we did this we would have the opportunity for either a Q1a win/loss against scUM also correct?
Quick look at the bubble according to WAB:
Teams just above water:
Texas A&M
SMU
TCU
VCU
USC
McNeese
Belmont
Cal
Teams just below water:
Indiana
Auburn
Virginia Tech
San Diego State
SFA
Seton Hall
Liberty
Yale
Just as a frame of reference for potential bid thieving on Selection Sunday. I could definitely see McNeese or Belmont sneaking in the last 4 if they lose in their conference tournament finals (McNeese losing to SFA in particular). Miami of Ohio is definitely making the NCAA tournament no matter if they lose, their WAB is so far above water it's not even close.
Teams just above water:
Texas A&M
SMU
TCU
VCU
USC
McNeese
Belmont
Cal
Teams just below water:
Indiana
Auburn
Virginia Tech
San Diego State
SFA
Seton Hall
Liberty
Yale
Just as a frame of reference for potential bid thieving on Selection Sunday. I could definitely see McNeese or Belmont sneaking in the last 4 if they lose in their conference tournament finals (McNeese losing to SFA in particular). Miami of Ohio is definitely making the NCAA tournament no matter if they lose, their WAB is so far above water it's not even close.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
So the current Bracket Matrix isn't gospel or anything, but I wanted to formulate my own rooting guide for the last two weeks before Selection Sunday. I am considering us a #2 seed for the moment with a real threat of falling to a #3 seed; if we get to a #4 seed, I will be pretty dejected in general, lol. So, with that in mind, these are the top 16 teams in the Bracket Matrix.
#1 Duke
#1 Michigan
#1 Arizona
#1 UConn
#2 Florida
#2 Houston
#2 Illinois
#2 Michigan State
#3 Iowa State
#3 Nebraska
#3 Purdue
#3 Texas Tech
#4 Kansas
#4 Alabama
#4 Gonzaga
#4 Virginia
I'm not taking into account things like hopefully getting St. Louis or BTT seeding; this is just looking at things from the perspective of these scenarios:
(A) Best case, it would be really awesome to somehow leapfrog Florida and Houston and therefore theoretically get UConn as our #1 seed as the top #2 seed.
(B) (Hopefully!) worst case, hang on to our spot on the #2 seed line and stave off any teams below us dragging us down.
With that in mind, here are the games played by those teams before the conference tournaments start next week! If their opponents are in the Bracket Matrix, I included their current projected seeds, too.
Tuesday, March 3
5:30 pm - #4 Alabama at #9 Georgia on ESPN News
6:00 pm - #11 TCU at #3 Texas Tech on FS1
6:00 pm - Wake Forest at #4 Virginia on ACC Network
7:00 pm - Mississippi State at #2 Florida on SEC Network
8:00 pm - Oregon at #2 Illinois on Peacock
8:00 pm - #4 Kansas at Arizona State on FS1
10:00 pm - #3 Nebraska at #10 UCLA on FS1
Wednesday, March 4
7:30 pm - #3 Purdue at Northwestern on BTN
8:00 pm - Baylor at #2 Houston on ESPN2
Thursday, March 5
7:00 pm - #1 Michigan at #9 Iowa on Peacock
7:00 pm - Rutgers at #2 Michigan State on FS1
Friday, March 6
N/A
Saturday, March 7
11:00 am - #2 Houston at Oklahoma State on CBS
11:00 am - Virginia Tech at #4 Virginia on The CW
11:30 am - #1 UConn at Marquette on FOX
1:00 pm - Kansas State at #4 Kansas on CBS
1:00 pm - Arizona State at #3 Iowa State on FS1
3:00 pm - #2 Florida at #6 Kentucky on ESPN
3:00 pm - #7 Wisconsin at #3 Purdue on CBS
5:30 pm - #5 North Carolina at #1 Duke on ESPN
7:30 pm - Auburn at #4 Alabama on ESPN
9:30 pm - #3 Texas Tech at #6 BYU on ESPN
10:00 pm - #1 Arizona at Colorado on ESPN2
Sunday, March 8
2:00 pm - #2 Illinois at Maryland on FOX
3:30 pm - #2 Michigan State at #1 Michigan on CBS
4:00 pm - #9 Iowa at #3 Nebraska on FOX
So, a few notes...
1) It goes without saying that it would be totally inexcusable and pretty detrimental for us not to go 2-0 this week. We got punched in the mouth by Michigan, we STILL control our own destiny and there is so much other chaos that could happen around the nation. WIN. BOTH. GAMES. Every point below this one rests entirely on the Illini taking care of business, obviously.
2) While it could be unlikely, it's needless to say that Nebraska going 0-2 this week would just be so exceptionally great for us, haha. Not only would it remove another team from #2 seed contention and not only would it make St. Louis even more probable ... but I believe it would slot us in as the #3 seed in the BTT, which would actually be massive for us, IMO. We would get a MUCH easier first BTT game on Friday rather than the brutal #4/5 matchup, we would be set up for a rematch vs. MSU on Saturday rather than face Purdue immediately (I'll take another shot at the Spartans away from Breslin any day), and we would then also get to avoid Michigan until Sunday, when the brackets could very well be set (at least as it pertains to our seed). Go Bruins, and go Hawkeyes!!
3) The odds of it happening are next to zero, but MAN would I become a lifelong, honorary Sun Devils fan if ASU somehow knocked off both Kansas and Iowa State and did us that much of a solid in one week.
Like I said, ASU is bad and it likely won't happen; however, they have had their moments, such as giving Arizona a scare in Tucson and knocking off Texas Tech a couple weeks ago. Here's to hopin'!
4) We have spent so many weeks rooting for UConn to lose, with the hope of stealing that last #1 seed if we won out. However, I feel like we now ironically want them to keep that #1 seed at all costs if we have any shot at being the top #2 seed! I would never take them lightly when the time for a rematch came, due to obvious reasons like them beating us already this year, respecting how good Hurley is in the Tournament and the traumatic memories of 2024 ... but would ANYBODY here substitute Michigan, Duke, Florida or Houston for UConn as far as the optimal #1 seed to share a bracket with? I'm guessing no.
5) To sum up, I think we need to root for three general things.
---> (A) Root for the status quo of the #1 seeds to remain constant, including UConn hanging on to its spot as the last #1.
---> (B) Root for continued cannibalization among the #3 and #4 seeds so that they crabs-in-the-bucket each other and keep Illinois above the whole lot of them. It's unlikely Iowa State loses, but non-crazy results like MSU losing at Michigan or Nebraska losing at UCLA would help us a lot.
---> (C) Lastly and most importantly, it would be HUGE if the #2 seeds theoretically above us right now lost another one. We might have to wait until the Big XII Tournament for Houston to pick up another loss, but we should all be MASSIVE Kentucky fans when they host Florida on Saturday...
#1 Duke
#1 Michigan
#1 Arizona
#1 UConn
#2 Florida
#2 Houston
#2 Illinois
#2 Michigan State
#3 Iowa State
#3 Nebraska
#3 Purdue
#3 Texas Tech
#4 Kansas
#4 Alabama
#4 Gonzaga
#4 Virginia
I'm not taking into account things like hopefully getting St. Louis or BTT seeding; this is just looking at things from the perspective of these scenarios:
(A) Best case, it would be really awesome to somehow leapfrog Florida and Houston and therefore theoretically get UConn as our #1 seed as the top #2 seed.
(B) (Hopefully!) worst case, hang on to our spot on the #2 seed line and stave off any teams below us dragging us down.
With that in mind, here are the games played by those teams before the conference tournaments start next week! If their opponents are in the Bracket Matrix, I included their current projected seeds, too.
Tuesday, March 3
5:30 pm - #4 Alabama at #9 Georgia on ESPN News
6:00 pm - #11 TCU at #3 Texas Tech on FS1
6:00 pm - Wake Forest at #4 Virginia on ACC Network
7:00 pm - Mississippi State at #2 Florida on SEC Network
8:00 pm - Oregon at #2 Illinois on Peacock
8:00 pm - #4 Kansas at Arizona State on FS1
10:00 pm - #3 Nebraska at #10 UCLA on FS1
Wednesday, March 4
7:30 pm - #3 Purdue at Northwestern on BTN
8:00 pm - Baylor at #2 Houston on ESPN2
Thursday, March 5
7:00 pm - #1 Michigan at #9 Iowa on Peacock
7:00 pm - Rutgers at #2 Michigan State on FS1
Friday, March 6
N/A
Saturday, March 7
11:00 am - #2 Houston at Oklahoma State on CBS
11:00 am - Virginia Tech at #4 Virginia on The CW
11:30 am - #1 UConn at Marquette on FOX
1:00 pm - Kansas State at #4 Kansas on CBS
1:00 pm - Arizona State at #3 Iowa State on FS1
3:00 pm - #2 Florida at #6 Kentucky on ESPN
3:00 pm - #7 Wisconsin at #3 Purdue on CBS
5:30 pm - #5 North Carolina at #1 Duke on ESPN
7:30 pm - Auburn at #4 Alabama on ESPN
9:30 pm - #3 Texas Tech at #6 BYU on ESPN
10:00 pm - #1 Arizona at Colorado on ESPN2
Sunday, March 8
2:00 pm - #2 Illinois at Maryland on FOX
3:30 pm - #2 Michigan State at #1 Michigan on CBS
4:00 pm - #9 Iowa at #3 Nebraska on FOX
So, a few notes...
1) It goes without saying that it would be totally inexcusable and pretty detrimental for us not to go 2-0 this week. We got punched in the mouth by Michigan, we STILL control our own destiny and there is so much other chaos that could happen around the nation. WIN. BOTH. GAMES. Every point below this one rests entirely on the Illini taking care of business, obviously.
2) While it could be unlikely, it's needless to say that Nebraska going 0-2 this week would just be so exceptionally great for us, haha. Not only would it remove another team from #2 seed contention and not only would it make St. Louis even more probable ... but I believe it would slot us in as the #3 seed in the BTT, which would actually be massive for us, IMO. We would get a MUCH easier first BTT game on Friday rather than the brutal #4/5 matchup, we would be set up for a rematch vs. MSU on Saturday rather than face Purdue immediately (I'll take another shot at the Spartans away from Breslin any day), and we would then also get to avoid Michigan until Sunday, when the brackets could very well be set (at least as it pertains to our seed). Go Bruins, and go Hawkeyes!!
3) The odds of it happening are next to zero, but MAN would I become a lifelong, honorary Sun Devils fan if ASU somehow knocked off both Kansas and Iowa State and did us that much of a solid in one week.
Like I said, ASU is bad and it likely won't happen; however, they have had their moments, such as giving Arizona a scare in Tucson and knocking off Texas Tech a couple weeks ago. Here's to hopin'!4) We have spent so many weeks rooting for UConn to lose, with the hope of stealing that last #1 seed if we won out. However, I feel like we now ironically want them to keep that #1 seed at all costs if we have any shot at being the top #2 seed! I would never take them lightly when the time for a rematch came, due to obvious reasons like them beating us already this year, respecting how good Hurley is in the Tournament and the traumatic memories of 2024 ... but would ANYBODY here substitute Michigan, Duke, Florida or Houston for UConn as far as the optimal #1 seed to share a bracket with? I'm guessing no.
5) To sum up, I think we need to root for three general things.
---> (A) Root for the status quo of the #1 seeds to remain constant, including UConn hanging on to its spot as the last #1.
---> (B) Root for continued cannibalization among the #3 and #4 seeds so that they crabs-in-the-bucket each other and keep Illinois above the whole lot of them. It's unlikely Iowa State loses, but non-crazy results like MSU losing at Michigan or Nebraska losing at UCLA would help us a lot.
---> (C) Lastly and most importantly, it would be HUGE if the #2 seeds theoretically above us right now lost another one. We might have to wait until the Big XII Tournament for Houston to pick up another loss, but we should all be MASSIVE Kentucky fans when they host Florida on Saturday...
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I have not, thanks for posting! It definitely confirms two "pre-picks" I will have going into March Madness, though.
1) If folks are trying to pick a non-#1 seed National Champion, Florida will likely be the obvious pick.
2) Unless they just get SUCH a favorable bracket, I have had my eye on North Carolina for an early round upset for a while.
Another one, yes please:
Any bracket in UCONN’s region is an emphatic yes for me.
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Wish Iowa State didn’t beat Houston. Refs screwed UH in that game.
- Status