Week of 3/2 Games Thread

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

It is never easy to decide POY. I think Fears and it's not close. Your argument about Yaxel could go for Wagler. But, without Smith Purdue is Oregon this year. Smith is All Big at the least.

Wagler is extremely clearly Illinois best player. It’s not close at all.

Lendeborg is Michigan’s best player, but by a much less margin. In a game between Michigan and Illinois, Michigan has 3 of the 4 best players on the court.

About your point with Smith - he’s absolutely All BIG, I don’t think he’s first team. You can only have a maximum of 3 guards on there, and I think Wagler, Stirtz, and Fears have all been better.

I agree that Fears is the best player.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Tomorrow 3pm will hopefully be a super fun watch: Wisconsin @ Purdue AND Florida @ Kentucky.

Of course, root for KY and Wisconsin.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Wagler is extremely clearly Illinois best player. It’s not close at all.

Lendeborg is Michigan’s best player, but by a much less margin. In a game between Michigan and Illinois, Michigan has 3 of the 4 best players on the court.

About your point with Smith - he’s absolutely All BIG, I don’t think he’s first team. You can only have a maximum of 3 guards on there, and I think Wagler, Stirtz, and Fears have all been better.

I agree that Fears is the best player.

I’d personally have Nick Boyd above Smith IF Wisconsin wins tomorrow (WISC would have the better conf record).

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Purdue has a chance to fall to a 7 seed in the B10 Tourney and out of the the top 4 seeds if they lose to Wisky. Let’s see if they can win on Senior Night.

 

[RockfordIllini]

Honestly at this point I’m not sure if we would prefer Wisconsin or Purdue get the 5 seed. We’ve beaten Purdue but not Wisconsin and I think both pose some matchup challenges.

Looking like Purdue is going to catch Wisconsin without Winter, yet another break for them. Outside of us catching USC when CBM was out and arenas was under the weather, we haven’t caught any breaks like that.

But take care of Maryland and we clinch the 4 seed and at worst finish tied for 3rd, likely second as Michigan will likely had Sparty a 5th loss. Maybe not as many banners as we’d like but we’ve consistently been a top3-5 program in the BIG since 2020. Pretty good run.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Another completely imbalanced week of games, lol. Here are the number of top 25 or Big Ten games (i.e., those most here would have an interest in) by day this week...

Monday - 2
Tuesday - 12
Wednesday - 9
Thursday - 2
Friday - 2
Saturday - 19
Sunday - 4

Lol, it's just weird going from having too many interesting games to keep track of to having literally nothing to watch every other day.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Honestly at this point I’m not sure if we would prefer Wisconsin or Purdue get the 5 seed. We’ve beaten Purdue but not Wisconsin and I think both pose some matchup challenges.

Looking like Purdue is going to catch Wisconsin without Winter, yet another break for them. Outside of us catching USC when CBM was out and arenas was under the weather, we haven’t caught any breaks like that.

But take care of Maryland and we clinch the 4 seed and at worst finish tied for 3rd, likely second as Michigan will likely had Sparty a 5th loss. Maybe not as many banners as we’d like but we’ve consistently been a top3-5 program in the BIG since 2020. Pretty good run.

I personally want Wisconsin. We may have lost to Wisconsin and beat Purdue, but the former was an overtime loss when we were down two starters, and the latter took a legitimately historic performance from Wagler. I think we could beat both, but I just can't shake the feeling that Purdue's floor AND ceiling is higher, regardless of how they are playing right now.

I'm not a betting man, but I would say the odds we'd run into Wisconsin's "B- Game" on Friday is higher than running into Purdue's, partly because I think Purdue will have a lot more to play for when it comes to seeding. I would rank it like this of who I'd rather play.

1. Bad Wisconsin
2. Bad Purdue


3. Mid-Wisconsin
4. Mid-Purdue


5. Good Wisconsin







6. Good Purdue


So then it just comes down to what probability I think each version of those squads shows up, and I just don't think Wisconsin is going to replicate that same effort vs. a fully healthy Illini squad at the United Center. With that said, either (obviously) is perfectly capable of beating us if we don't bring it!

 

[RockfordIllini]

I personally want Wisconsin. We may have lost to Wisconsin and beat Purdue, but the former was an overtime loss when we were down two starters, and the latter took a legitimately historic performance from Wagler. I think we could beat both, but I just can't shake the feeling that Purdue's floor AND ceiling is higher, regardless of how they are playing right now.

I'm not a betting man, but I would say the odds we'd run into Wisconsin's "B- Game" on Friday is higher than running into Purdue's, partly because I think Purdue will have a lot more to play for when it comes to seeding. I would rank it like this of who I'd rather play.

1. Bad Wisconsin
2. Bad Purdue


3. Mid-Wisconsin
4. Mid-Purdue


5. Good Wisconsin







6. Good Purdue


So then it just comes down to what probability I think each version of those squads shows up, and I just don't think Wisconsin is going to replicate that same effort vs. a fully healthy Illini squad at the United Center. With that said, either (obviously) is perfectly capable of beating us if we don't bring it!

Very fair. For as bad as Purdue has looked the past month they are still top 10 on Torvik in that span and higher than Wisconsin.

Purdue’s ceiling is definitely higher because of Smith. Dude is an absolute warrior and I believe he could carry them to an E8 or FF by himself. But that team is also the Braden Smith shows. He has an off game or you figure out a way to take him out of it and they are very beatable as they showed this week. That Northwestern game very much had 14 v3 vibes. Northwestern had a jitterbug undersized point guard, a high scoring but unorthodox below the rim player, and mucked the game up with a gimmicky defense, all hallmarks of a mid major who takes down a big boy.

But yes if smith has another game against us like he did in Mackey they will be really tough to beat.

 

[HensonHall71]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2029754635846615409

That's crazy - Kohler makes that FT for them to go up by 15 points with 1:19 left and Rutgers scores 19 points in the next 1:14!

 

[OnlyOrange]

I personally want Wisconsin. We may have lost to Wisconsin and beat Purdue, but the former was an overtime loss when we were down two starters, and the latter took a legitimately historic performance from Wagler. I think we could beat both, but I just can't shake the feeling that Purdue's floor AND ceiling is higher, regardless of how they are playing right now.

I'm not a betting man, but I would say the odds we'd run into Wisconsin's "B- Game" on Friday is higher than running into Purdue's, partly because I think Purdue will have a lot more to play for when it comes to seeding. I would rank it like this of who I'd rather play.

My concern is that an Illinois-Purdue matchup in the BTT would be a de facto play-in for a 2 seed, as they're right on our heels. Lot at stake there.

If they lose round 1, it's almost certain they get a 3.

 

[jrichisamazing]

Should see some great games in Arch Madness today (and the next 2 days).

Belmont is a 12.5 pt favorite against Drake but the other 3 games are less than 5pt spreads.

I always root for the Illinois teams and have no particular favorite. But it would be cool to see UIC make a run.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

My concern is that an Illinois-Purdue matchup in the BTT would be a de facto play-in for a 2 seed, as they're right on our heels. Lot at stake there.

If they lose round 1, it's almost certain they get a 3.

Yeah, let's assume that the following three things would happen before we faced off vs. Purdue on Friday in a #4 vs. #5 BTT game.

(1) They beat Wisconsin at home (barely Quad 2 for now, UW is #31)
(2) We beat Maryland (Quad 3)
(3) Purdue wins its Thursday game. Current project bracket has that as either USC or Minnesota, which are both Quad 2 on a neutral floor, so let's give them one more Quad 2 win.

Assuming the NET Rankings and KenPom stay more or less the same between now and then, this is what both teams' resumes would look like before we squared off at the United Center...

Record ... PUR 25-7, ILL 24-7
NET ... ILL #5, PUR #9
KenPom ... ILL #5, PUR #7
Road Record ... ILL 8-2, PUR 8-3
vs. Quad 1A ... ILL 6-6, PUR 5-7
vs. Quad 1 ... PUR 9-7, ILL 8-6
vs. Quad 2 ... PUR 5-0, ILL 5-1
vs. Quad 3 ... PUR 8-0, ILL 6-0
vs. Quad 4 ... ILL 5-0, PUR 3-0
Head-to-Head ... Illinois 88, Purdue 82 at Purdue

All of a sudden the prospect of either team stealing that Quad 1A win looks massively important, especially for Purdue. If they beat us, would they not have an EXTREMELY strong case for jumping us? They'd tie us in Quad 1A results, and the head-to-head would be tied ... we'd pretty much be banking on (A) computer rankings and (B) the Boswell injury for the Committee to give us the edge, and the former might be neck and neck if they beat us.

Regardless of who we play or what seed we are, I personally think winning on Friday in the BTT (and of course beating Maryland) would be absolutely essential for our seeding prospects.

 

[IllinoisFan733]

I heard it will be easier to show the chalk outline of where people slip and tear their ligaments

This made me laugh so hard, and I don’t know why!

 

[OnlyOrange]

Yeah, let's assume that the following three things would happen before we faced off vs. Purdue on Friday in a #4 vs. #5 BTT game.

(1) They beat Wisconsin at home (barely Quad 2 for now, UW is #31)
(2) We beat Maryland (Quad 3)
(3) Purdue wins its Thursday game. Current project bracket has that as either USC or Minnesota, which are both Quad 2 on a neutral floor, so let's give them one more Quad 2 win.

Assuming the NET Rankings and KenPom stay more or less the same between now and then, this is what both teams' resumes would look like before we squared off at the United Center...

Record ... PUR 25-7, ILL 24-7
NET ... ILL #5, PUR #9
KenPom ... ILL #5, PUR #7
Road Record ... ILL 8-2, PUR 8-3
vs. Quad 1A ... ILL 6-6, PUR 5-7
vs. Quad 1 ... PUR 9-7, ILL 8-6
vs. Quad 2 ... PUR 5-0, ILL 5-1
vs. Quad 3 ... PUR 8-0, ILL 6-0
vs. Quad 4 ... ILL 5-0, PUR 3-0
Head-to-Head ... Illinois 88, Purdue 82 at Purdue

All of a sudden the prospect of either team stealing that Quad 1A win looks massively important, especially for Purdue. If they beat us, would they not have an EXTREMELY strong case for jumping us? They'd tie us in Quad 1A results, and the head-to-head would be tied ... we'd pretty much be banking on (A) computer rankings and (B) the Boswell injury for the Committee to give us the edge, and the former might be neck and neck if they beat us.

Regardless of who we play or what seed we are, I personally think winning on Friday in the BTT (and of course beating Maryland) would be absolutely essential for our seeding prospects.

Yeah, this is where my head is at - so my rooting guide for this weekend is

1. Us, obviously
2. Iowa over Nebraska - this would net us the 3 seed in the BTT
3. Wisconsin over Purdue - keeps Purdue out of the 5, if we end up with the 4.

Not sure I care much about every other game, except for having the teams we beat, like TT, all win and keep our resume strong.

Anything I'm missing?

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Yeah, this is where my head is at - so my rooting guide for this weekend is

1. Us, obviously
2. Iowa over Nebraska - this would net us the 3 seed in the BTT
3. Wisconsin over Purdue - keeps Purdue out of the 5, if we end up with the 4.

Not sure I care much about every other game, except for having the teams we beat, like TT, all win and keep our resume strong.

Anything I'm missing?

I made this post the other day, and the only thing I would add is that it benefits us to have all potential #2 and #3 seeds lose, too. It's tricky with Texas Tech, as we want them to thread the needle between being very safely behind us in the overall seed pecking order but also in the top 15 of the NET to keep our win vs. them as Quad 1A. They probably already terminally hurt their #2 seed chances with the home loss to ASU and they are still #14 in the NET, so I would say we can safely root for them to win now.

 

[Altuve27]

Yeah, let's assume that the following three things would happen before we faced off vs. Purdue on Friday in a #4 vs. #5 BTT game.

(1) They beat Wisconsin at home (barely Quad 2 for now, UW is #31)
(2) We beat Maryland (Quad 3)
(3) Purdue wins its Thursday game. Current project bracket has that as either USC or Minnesota, which are both Quad 2 on a neutral floor, so let's give them one more Quad 2 win.

Assuming the NET Rankings and KenPom stay more or less the same between now and then, this is what both teams' resumes would look like before we squared off at the United Center...

Record ... PUR 25-7, ILL 24-7
NET ... ILL #5, PUR #9
KenPom ... ILL #5, PUR #7
Road Record ... ILL 8-2, PUR 8-3
vs. Quad 1A ... ILL 6-6, PUR 5-7
vs. Quad 1 ... PUR 9-7, ILL 8-6
vs. Quad 2 ... PUR 5-0, ILL 5-1
vs. Quad 3 ... PUR 8-0, ILL 6-0
vs. Quad 4 ... ILL 5-0, PUR 3-0
Head-to-Head ... Illinois 88, Purdue 82 at Purdue

All of a sudden the prospect of either team stealing that Quad 1A win looks massively important, especially for Purdue. If they beat us, would they not have an EXTREMELY strong case for jumping us? They'd tie us in Quad 1A results, and the head-to-head would be tied ... we'd pretty much be banking on (A) computer rankings and (B) the Boswell injury for the Committee to give us the edge, and the former might be neck and neck if they beat us.

Regardless of who we play or what seed we are, I personally think winning on Friday in the BTT (and of course beating Maryland) would be absolutely essential for our seeding prospects.

I agree with everything you said, but I am not looking ahead. We HAVE to absolutely destroy Maryland. A loss there would do serious damage. Irreparable damage.

 

[March2TheArch]

I made this post the other day, and the only thing I would add is that it benefits us to have all potential #2 and #3 seeds lose, too. It's tricky with Texas Tech, as we want them to thread the needle between being very safely behind us in the overall seed pecking order but also in the top 15 of the NET to keep our win vs. them as Quad 1A. They probably already terminally hurt their #2 seed chances with the home loss to ASU and they are still #14 in the NET, so I would say we can safely root for them to win now.

Tech beating IAST and losing to TCU was the perfect combo of results for us. Barring them winning the Big 12 tourney, I doubt they can jump us. Only scenario I see is if they somehow manage to knock off another Q1A team (there are several of them in the Big 12) and we lose next Friday. Could get a tad dicey. Even then we have the H2H on them.

It’s going to be an interesting 9 days ahead.

I think if we lose that game next Friday we invite the possibility of dropping to a low 3. I believe that’s our floor.

As I see it Houston and Florida have their respective 2 seeds locked up.

We have a logjam of teams fighting for the remains six top 3 seeds:
- Michigan State
- Iowa State
- Illinois
- Purdue
- Nebraska
- Kansas
- Texas Tech
- Gonzaga
- Alabama
- Virginia

That’s 10 teams and we want to finish top 6 in that bunch.

Does a loss to a low 2-seed / high 3-seed in Purdue on a semi-neutral court (it is Chicago) drop us to 7th out of those 10 teams?

We’re already behind MSU and IAST.

Purdue jumps us with a Friday win.

Our resume is slightly better vs. Nebraska. They beat MSU and Wisky. We beat Purdue, Texas Tech, and Tennessee. It’s kind of a wash beyond that. They NEED to win vs. Iowa. Otherwise they’ll be 0-2 vs. them while we’d be 1-0 away. If they beat Iowa and MSU, that should get them a 3-seed (with an outside chance of a 2-seed if things break their way).

Kansas and Texas Tech need very good showings in the conference tourney to get back to a 3-seed.

Gonzaga has to win out including the rematch with SMC to maybe sneak back into a 3-seed. But not sure if that’s even enough.

Alabama needs a strong conference tourney to counteract the Georgia loss.

Virginia likely needs to beat a tourney-bound ACC team like UNC, UL, or UofM.

- - -

Considering Purdue’s form and how close we played Wisconsin with no Bos or Dre, I like our chances in the 4/5 Friday BTT game.

And even if we lose, we have > 50% chance to still be a 3-seed considering other teams will also stumble their way to Selection Sunday.

 

[Piotyr]

Belmont gets run out of the gym by 13-16 Drake, and they end their season with 2 losses to go from a team that could make life tough for a 5 seed in the tourney to likely out (their WAB went from 42 before the first loss to 49 before this current loss and waiting to see how the result affects it now, but it can't be good).

 

[wc_illini]

Tech beating IAST and losing to TCU was the perfect combo of results for us. Barring them winning the Big 12 tourney, I doubt they can jump us. Only scenario I see is if they somehow manage to knock off another Q1A team (there are several of them in the Big 12) and we lose next Friday. Could get a tad dicey. Even then we have the H2H on them.

It’s going to be an interesting 9 days ahead.

I think if we lose that game next Friday we invite the possibility of dropping to a low 3. I believe that’s our floor.

As I see it Houston and Florida have their respective 2 seeds locked up.

We have a logjam of teams fighting for the remains six top 3 seeds:
- Michigan State
- Iowa State
- Illinois
- Purdue
- Nebraska
- Kansas
- Texas Tech
- Gonzaga
- Alabama
- Virginia

That’s 10 teams and we want to finish top 6 in that bunch.

Does a loss to a low 2-seed / high 3-seed in Purdue on a semi-neutral court (it is Chicago) drop us to 7th out of those 10 teams?

We’re already behind MSU and IAST.

Purdue jumps us with a Friday win.

Our resume is slightly better vs. Nebraska. They beat MSU and Wisky. We beat Purdue, Texas Tech, and Tennessee. It’s kind of a wash beyond that. They NEED to win vs. Iowa. Otherwise they’ll be 0-2 vs. them while we’d be 1-0 away. If they beat Iowa and MSU, that should get them a 3-seed (with an outside chance of a 2-seed if things break their way).

Kansas and Texas Tech need very good showings in the conference tourney to get back to a 3-seed.

Gonzaga has to win out including the rematch with SMC to maybe sneak back into a 3-seed. But not sure if that’s even enough.

Alabama needs a strong conference tourney to counteract the Georgia loss.

Virginia likely needs to beat a tourney-bound ACC team like UNC, UL, or UofM.

- - -

Considering Purdue’s form and how close we played Wisconsin with no Bos or Dre, I like our chances in the 4/5 Friday BTT game.

And even if we lose, we have > 50% chance to still be a 3-seed considering other teams will also stumble their way to Selection Sunday.

Why do you say we're behind IAST? BracketMatrix has us ahead (a definite 2 vs a definite 3), every single ranking metric the NCAA uses (NET, KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom, and Torvik) has us ahead, and betting markets also have us ahead. It's just the AP and Coaches polls that have them ahead of us.

MSU is less clear. We're ahead in efficiency rankings and betting odds, they're ahead in resume rankings and the polls, and we're tied in BracketMatrix.

I mention the betting odds not because the committee cares about them (though perhaps they should) but because they reflect a more accurate human ranking than the polls, whereas the metrics they use may omit some important context like recent trends and injuries.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Yeah, this is where my head is at - so my rooting guide for this weekend is

1. Us, obviously
2. Iowa over Nebraska - this would net us the 3 seed in the BTT
3. Wisconsin over Purdue - keeps Purdue out of the 5, if we end up with the 4.

Not sure I care much about every other game, except for having the teams we beat, like TT, all win and keep our resume strong.

Anything I'm missing?

Root for KY to beat Florida.

 

[March2TheArch]

Why do you say we're behind IAST? BracketMatrix has us ahead (a definite 2 vs a definite 3), every single ranking metric the NCAA uses (NET, KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom, and Torvik) has us ahead, and betting markets also have us ahead. It's just the AP and Coaches polls that have them ahead of us.

MSU is less clear. We're ahead in efficiency rankings and betting odds, they're ahead in resume rankings and the polls, and we're tied in BracketMatrix.

I mention the betting odds not because the committee cares about them (though perhaps they should) but because they reflect a more accurate human ranking than the polls, whereas the metrics they use may omit some important context like recent trends and injuries.

Committee seems infatuated with the Big 12. Had Iowa State on the 1 line 2 weeks ago. There were notions of the Big 12 having two 1 seeds (Zona + IST/UH) and two 2 seeds (IST/UH + Kansas) not so long ago. I feel like that bias will carry forward.

Happy to be proven wrong.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

We’re already behind MSU and IAST.

Iowa State? No.

There’s more brackets that have them as a 4seed than a 2seed:

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2026

 

[March2TheArch]

Iowa State? No.

There’s more brackets that have them as a 4seed than a 2seed:

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2026

Happy to concede IST.

But it’s hard not to feel there is disproportionate pundit coverage of say an Iowa State beating Kansas at home vs. us winning away at Nebraska.

If we lose vs. Purdue and IST wins against a tournament-bound Big 12 team, the committee will flip our seeds with glee. So just projecting that frustration I suppose.

Went too far in saying they’re ahead of us at this time.

- - -

So my apologies to wc_Illini and Fly Illini Fly.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Iowa State? No.

There’s more brackets that have them as a 4seed than a 2seed:

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2026

If these 3 things happen, we’re pretty much a lock for the 2seed:

— Wisconsin beats Purdue (knocks them out of our part of the bracket, gives them another loss)

— Illinois wins AT LEAST the Friday game in the BTT

— Iowa State loses the Thursday game in the B12 tournament. As of today, they are most likely to face Kansas:

If that scenario plays out, you’ll only have a MAX of 3 teams as realistic threats to be on the 2 line (aside from us): Michigan State, Florida, Houston.

 

[zentrails]

Anything I'm missing?

I would just add that not only were we without Dre and Boz for a few games but also that they weren't completely healthy when they did get back. Dre seems better now, but Boz still has a healing broken shooting hand. Possibly explains the lost 3 OT games better than "we can't close out games" IMO

Two of our better players (and ball handlers) out has to affect the final NCAA seeding at least a little I would think.