Week of 3/3 Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#2      
OrangeBlue98
I Win Winner Winner GIF by The Original Donut Shop Coffee
 
#4      
21ChampaignSt
Am I crazy or do we have a shot at a 4 or 5 seed if we get 3 more wins and USC becomes Quad 2 again?

Our resume is pretty similar to schools in the conversation for a 4 seed like Arizona, Missouri, and Purdue.

3 more wins and USC climbing to Q2 would mean:
Q1: 10-10
Q2: 6-1
Q4: 6-0

There would probably only be about 10 teams with more Q1 wins than us. That seems more 4 seed than 6 seed to me.
 
#6      
OrangeBlue98
21ChampaignSt said:
Am I crazy or do we have a shot at a 4 or 5 seed if we get 3 more wins and USC becomes Quad 2 again?

Our resume is pretty similar to schools in the conversation for a 4 seed like Arizona, Missouri, and Purdue.

3 more wins and USC climbing to Q2 would mean:
Q1: 10-10
Q2: 6-1
Q4: 6-0

There would probably only be about 10 teams with more Q1 wins than us. That seems more 4 seed than 6 seed to me.
Click to expand...
It's not out of the realm of possibility, but honestly I'd much rather have a 6 or 7 seed compared to a 4 or 5 seed.

Here are Andy Katz's bracket predictions from last week, so before the wins against Iowa and Michigan (I refuse to ever link to Joe Lunardi)
www.ncaa.com

2025 March Madness men's bracket predictions, 3 weeks from Selection Sunday

Andy Katz releases his latest March Madness men's bracket predictions as Selection Sunday fast approaches.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

If Illinois is playing well, they can take any of the 2 or 3 seeds in this listing. I'm not overly worried about seeding - I'm more concerned about matchups right now.

1741013401726.png
 
#8      
sacraig
21ChampaignSt said:
Am I crazy or do we have a shot at a 4 or 5 seed if we get 3 more wins and USC becomes Quad 2 again?

Our resume is pretty similar to schools in the conversation for a 4 seed like Arizona, Missouri, and Purdue.

3 more wins and USC climbing to Q2 would mean:
Q1: 10-10
Q2: 6-1
Q4: 6-0

There would probably only be about 10 teams with more Q1 wins than us. That seems more 4 seed than 6 seed to me.
Click to expand...
I feel like our current seed is a lot more about recency bias than it is our overall resume. Our resume is far better than the 8 seed we currently seem to be according to talking heads, but our month of February was so bad that it drags us down.

If we come into March with a string of quality wins, especially dominant ones like yesterday, I think it puts us back into the 4/5 conversation that is more in line with our resume and advanced metrics.
 
#9      
Calvin
21ChampaignSt said:
Am I crazy or do we have a shot at a 4 or 5 seed if we get 3 more wins and USC becomes Quad 2 again?

Our resume is pretty similar to schools in the conversation for a 4 seed like Arizona, Missouri, and Purdue.

3 more wins and USC climbing to Q2 would mean:
Q1: 10-10
Q2: 6-1
Q4: 6-0

There would probably only be about 10 teams with more Q1 wins than us. That seems more 4 seed than 6 seed to me.
Click to expand...

We're currently an 8 in bracketmatrix, 19th (roughly 5 seed) in Kenpom, and 29th (roughly 8 seed) in Evan Miya with flags for "volatile" and trending down. Miya has a nice metric for quality of wins that is more precise than the quad system, so I think that and bracketmatrix are most interesting to me. Not sure if we could get all the way to a 4 seed, but to your point, a strong finish to the season would definitely move us up at least a couple lines. Would be nice to see
 
#10      
the juiceman cometh
It'll be interesting to see the next Bracket Matrix update (last update was yesterday). I think we already may be a 7-seed, just waiting for projections to update. With a Purdue win and at least one win in the BTT, I think we have a very good chance at a 6. I think the narrative about this team has to really shift to be talking about 4/5, which I think would mean at least 2 wins in the BTT, maybe 3 (i.e. making it to the final).
 
#12      
Illini2010-11
21ChampaignSt said:
Am I crazy or do we have a shot at a 4 or 5 seed if we get 3 more wins and USC becomes Quad 2 again?

Our resume is pretty similar to schools in the conversation for a 4 seed like Arizona, Missouri, and Purdue.

3 more wins and USC climbing to Q2 would mean:
Q1: 10-10
Q2: 6-1
Q4: 6-0

There would probably only be about 10 teams with more Q1 wins than us. That seems more 4 seed than 6 seed to me.
Click to expand...
I think a 5 seed is easily on the table if the Illini win Friday and get to the BTT Finals, regardless of where the USC loss falls within the Quad system. The committee will discount the USC loss if it comes in at Quad 3, given KJ was out. Therefore, from a seeding standpoint, the USC loss falling in Quad 2 or Quad 3 will have little to no impact.
 
#13      
From the cheap seats
According to the NCAA Selection Committee, they do take into account player absences due to injury/illness. It's another reason that Morez being back on the floor for the B1G Tourney is important beyond the obvious reason. At this point, I don't believe the committee would put the Illini in a #8 seed, maybe not even a #7, given the (admittedly Jekyll/Hyde) resume.
 
#16      
Illini2010-11
Old Farm Illini said:
Keep in mind that we just got our best win of the season and the brackets on bracket matrix do not reflect that yet.
Click to expand...
Correct. The win in Ann Arbor was huge. I strongly believe that the seeding floor is 7. Beat Purdue and win one in the BTT, I think the Illini will get a 6 seed. The ceiling is likely a 5 seed (maybe a low 4 seed).

The main takeaway is that the win yesterday will likely ensure we avoid the 8/9 game.
 
#19      
Second place is 1st loser
Dan said:
NCAA Tournament Bracketology

Illinois an 8 seed in the Bracket Matrix
bracketmatrix.com

Illinois #16 in the NET Rankings
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings


Big Ten Tournament Bracketology

Big Ten Tournament Bracket Generator
https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

Matt Hackman Big Ten Bracket Scanarios
https://x.com/mjhackman
Click to expand...
It's going to be really hard to get off of that 8/9 line.
1)Despite the schedule, we still have 11 losses. We'd have to beat Purdue, then win a couple of games in the BTT.

2)Some of our losses, for lack of a better term and only in basketball sense, are unforgivable. I mean, we have some nice wins, but losses to Northwestern, Rutgers and USC just can't be forgotten. Nebraska is a tough place to play, but that's a game we should have won comfortably. Michigan is probably our best win.

3)Losing to Maryland, MSU, Wisconsin and especially Duke.....no shame in losing those whatsoever. It's the way we lost. All double digits. Duke was on primetime, National TV and over a week later.... we're still hearing about it. Can't just go out and lose by 40 and not have it leave a mark.

4)All Q1 wins aren't the same, just as all Q2 losses aren't the same.

We have to beat Purdue, then win a game versus Indiana(or someone of the like), then beat MSU or Wisconsin or Purdue (again) to see some legit movement.

We painted ourselves into a corner a bit. Let's not forget, just a week ago our own fans were saying the team was lost, the locker room was a mess, everyone was transferring and Brad should be fired. That was just one week ago. Some of you know who you are. That doesn't change in a week. We have work to do to move the needle.
 
#23      
OrangeBlue98
illini0440 said:
We are on the 6/7 line. Win Friday and 2 in the BTT think that gets us to a 5/6. Win out and we are probably a 4 seed. I think at worst we are a 7 seed.
Click to expand...
I'm not quite as optimistic, but I'm close. I think if we lose Friday and in the BTT 1st round, we'll be at an 8 seed.

Win one, and I think it's a 7 seed (but could be higher given how yesterday's win impacted all of the variables with our robot overlords in the bracket-making world).

Win 2, and I think it's a 6 seed.

Win 3 (Purdue, and make it to the BTT semis), and I don't think a 5 is out of the question.

I don't think a 4 is the cards - I think a 5 is the ceiling. But I've been way wrong before.
 
#25      
Second place is 1st loser
Old Farm Illini said:
It's March and sometimes it does change in a week. It just did in our case.
Click to expand...
I don't want to downplay an OUTSTANDING win, but it doesn't erase the previous 8-10. It definitely shows that we have life, but have to build on it by beating Purdue. If we lose to Purdue and end up an 8 seed in our own conference tournament, your expectation is a flat seed in a national level? Hey, you could be right. I hope so.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back