Say we win out(not saying it's likely but for seeding purposes) that puts us at 12 Q1 wins. Computers would have us as a 2.....if that's the case probably looking at a 3 seed. Just saying there is a path to the 3/4 line.
Week of 3/3 Bracketology
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OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Honest question-does the BTT final have any impact unless it’s for a team not otherwise in to get the automatic bid? Part of my thinking related to seeding basically assumes the BTT final is irrelevant for seeding. This is why I wish it would be on Saturday night.
Despite our recent troubles, our overall resume is strong. Our only blip is the USC home loss. Everyone is a mess this year. Adding a couple more Q1 wins can move us up quickly when the dust settles. It's been a very good season in the macro view.
I agree with this sentiment. Our NET and overall resume against our SOS is too strong to have us firmly planted on the 8 line.
From many past seasons, all have these very same comments - the BTT Finale is too late to be included in the Committee's seeding decisions.
I agree with you - move it a day earlier, to Saturday.
Or, better yet, move it a week earlier and give the kids a week to rest after the intensity of the BTT, with so little rest between 4 games.
Please take in mind that the Selection committee would love to keep ILLINI an 8 seed with the possible matchup against Auburn and their Cheating, Lying Stinking coach!! Who I'm sure that nothing would be mentioned about his scurrilous past by any one announcing the game. Only how great a he is as a coach.
sacraig
- The desert
I largely agree. I think our seed is a lot more volatile that usually for this time of year because of our weirdly streaky resume and what our finish says about the impact of players missing or being sick.
I think if we show a strong finish, it demonstrates to the committee that our January/February struggles really were due to player absence/illness and we really are more like the team we saw prior to that.
If we flop down the stretch, we'll be seeded more in line with our rough patch.
Perfectly stated.
It's a weak seeding line year, but I don't think we have the games left to get there since we know the BTT Final doesn't get used for seeding purposes and there's decently strong evidence the BTT Semifinals are at best used for fringe cases as the bracket is pretty much locked that day. So I think realistically Illinois has just 3 games left to make a move.
Ending the season with wins like
@Mich
H-Pur
N-OSU
N-Wisc
would indeed have major impact as those would be 4 extremely high quality wins at the right time, but I think that still might only get us up to the 5 line as other teams ahead of us will win games as well.
Either way though, this is one team where I don't necessarily think seed is all that important, it's more about how we're playing. We do something crazy like win those 4 consecutive games against say Mich, Purdue, OSU, and Wisconsin, then we're playing really well consistently. And if we learned how to do that, we can beat anyone.
If we beat Purdue & win 2 in the BTT that’s possibly 10 Quad 1 wins…. We will be top 15ish in NET and predictive metrics.. most years that’s somewhere in the 3/4 seed range. However; this years seeding is a complete mess. Here’s some examples, I want everyone to try to guess what seeds these resumes are on Bracket Matrix…
Team 1:
19-10
5-8 Quad 1
4-2 Quad 2
NET 20
T-Rank 22
4-7 road
Team 2:
19-10
9-9 Quad 1
1-1 Quad 2
NET 15
T-Rank 23
3-6 road
Team 3:
23-6
4-4 Quad 1
7-2 Quad 2
NET 24
T-Rank 19
9-2 road
Team 4:
26-4
3-4 Quad 1
8-0 Quad 2
NET 19
T-Rank 18
7-2 road
Team 5:
19-11
7-10 Quad 1
6-0 Quad 2
NET 16
T-Rank 17
5-5 Road
Team 1:
19-10
5-8 Quad 1
4-2 Quad 2
NET 20
T-Rank 22
4-7 road
6
Kansas
Team 2:
19-10
9-9 Quad 1
1-1 Quad 2
NET 15
T-Rank 23
3-6 road
3
kentucky
Team 3:
23-6
4-4 Quad 1
7-2 Quad 2
NET 24
T-Rank 19
9-2 road
6
louisville
Team 4:
26-4
3-4 Quad 1
8-0 Quad 2
NET 19
T-Rank 18
7-2 road
3
St John’s
Team 5:
19-11
7-10 Quad 1
6-0 Quad 2
NET 16
T-Rank 17
5-5 Road
8
ILLINOIS
Bigtex
- DFW
only one i got correct (team) was team 5
The road records are telling for team 3 and team 4
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
The committee will 100% not lock the Illini in a lower seed just for this sake (outside of Illinois circles, there is not much of a media narrative for Auburn/Illinois). The win yesterday almost assures that this will not happen.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
What yesterday's game (IMHO) does is remind the committee what we were, in December and especially in early January. Prior to KJ's injury and illness hitting us very hard. It won't make them forget the 6 weeks of HELL. But it can be balanced by 3 20 point road wins against ranked conference foes. With scoring 60 or more in each of the 2nd halves.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
I'm thinking a 6 seed is a fantastic place to be for a longer run in the tourney. Harder road to sweet 16, easier to elite 8. I just want to avoid Duke or Auburn as long as possible.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
History shows not a lot. However, there was a year where UI and UW were ranked very closely to each other and were playing in the final. The committee had 2 spots reserved for that game. Winner got Milwaukee, loser got Columbus, where the Illini were "too pretty" to beat Cincy. Spoiler alert, Illini advanced.
My buddy is a Michigan fan and came over to watch the game at my place. I served him ice cream then a 20 point smackdown. Both were delicious
For fun went back and looked at final net ranking for 2024 headed into Selection Sunday along with final committee ranking and subsequent seed in bracket. Also looked at Quad 1 record. There is obviously multiple factors beyond NET and Q1 including, but not limited to, SOS, Kpom/Torvik/etc, Road/neutral, etc. Also bracketing principles come into play - the committee can slide teams a seed line to avoid rematches, conference matchups, give geographic bias, etc.
What's interesting is if you look at Top 20 net the committee didn't really veer too far from a straight net seeding model to actual seeding. No team in top 22 net was seeded below a 6; no major conference team below a 5. Clear outlier was Auburn which is easily explained by their Q1 record. Alabama as well, weren't getting a 2/3 seed with 12 losses and below .500 against Q1. Mid majors were generally seeded below their net, very much so in some instances.
Note: BYU and Gonzaga flipped seeds in bracket so BYU wouldn't play on a Sunday - not that it ended up mattering
Beating Purdue Friday locks us in to no worse than a 6 imo. Lose the next 2 8/9. 3 is ceiling with a BTT win. 4/5 is possible beating Purdue win 1-2 BTT wins. Lose Purdue win 1-2 BTT 7. Lot of chaos to come everywhere.
What's interesting is if you look at Top 20 net the committee didn't really veer too far from a straight net seeding model to actual seeding. No team in top 22 net was seeded below a 6; no major conference team below a 5. Clear outlier was Auburn which is easily explained by their Q1 record. Alabama as well, weren't getting a 2/3 seed with 12 losses and below .500 against Q1. Mid majors were generally seeded below their net, very much so in some instances.
Note: BYU and Gonzaga flipped seeds in bracket so BYU wouldn't play on a Sunday - not that it ended up mattering
Beating Purdue Friday locks us in to no worse than a 6 imo. Lose the next 2 8/9. 3 is ceiling with a BTT win. 4/5 is possible beating Purdue win 1-2 BTT wins. Lose Purdue win 1-2 BTT 7. Lot of chaos to come everywhere.
Probably the most likely scenario (out of so many scenarios).
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Not Rocky Road
4040
Is everything ok with DGL?
His shots were wide open yesterday and he barely drew iron.
Is he still sick?
If we get Morez back I actually like our chances to make a run in the BTT depending on how the bracket lines up.
I know Sparty has been on a roll but I still think we match up well with them. Wisconsin is very good but I think we can beat them if our defensive bite is back. The team that I would least like to face is Maryland. Other than Maryland lots of good teams but no one else really scares me from a matchup perspective.
I know Sparty has been on a roll but I still think we match up well with them. Wisconsin is very good but I think we can beat them if our defensive bite is back. The team that I would least like to face is Maryland. Other than Maryland lots of good teams but no one else really scares me from a matchup perspective.
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