Week of 3/3 Bracketology

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#276      
lstewart53x3
For as great as last year was, did you guys know the first and only ranked win of the season was Iowa St in the Sweet 16?

Whereas this year, we have wins against currently ranked teams: Purdue, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin + formerly ranked Oregon.

Last year, we were 5-6 in Q1 games headed into the BTT, whereas this year, we’re 8-9. The injuries and illness really put a damper on this year, but this has been a historically difficult schedule, and you’ve gotta tip your hat to the way these kids finished the season.
 
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#277      
SkyysNotFalling
lstewart53x3 said:
For as great as last year was, did you guys know the first and only ranked win of the season was Iowa St in the Sweet 16?

Whereas this year, we have wins against currently ranked teams: Purdue, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin + formerly ranked Oregon.

Last year, we were 5-6 in Q1 games headed into the BTT, whereas this year, we’re 8-10. The injuries and illness really put a damper on this year, but this has been a historically difficult schedule, and you’ve gotta tip your hat to the way these kids finished the season.
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Well said. And if we’re healthy I think we’re at least 9-9 or 10-8 in quad 1, and with that, and our metrics.. we’re probably like a 3 seed?
 
#279      
lstewart53x3
SkyysNotFalling said:
Well said. And if we’re healthy I think we’re at least 9-9 or 10-8 in quad 1, and with that, and our metrics.. we’re probably like a 3 seed?
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Alabama, the top projected 2 seed is 9-7 Q1 games, 8-0 in Q2. So yeah, a 3 seed sounds about right.

(And I was actually off, just checked again, and we’re 8-9 in Q1 games, not 8-10. Corrected my post)
 
#282      
nyc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
For as great as last year was, did you guys know the first and only ranked win of the season was Iowa St in the Sweet 16?

Whereas this year, we have wins against currently ranked teams: Purdue, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin + formerly ranked Oregon.

Last year, we were 5-6 in Q1 games headed into the BTT, whereas this year, we’re 8-9. The injuries and illness really put a damper on this year, but this has been a historically difficult schedule, and you’ve gotta tip your hat to the way these kids finished the season.
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That's not true. We did beat No. 11 Florida Atlantic in MSG last year
 
#283      
lstewart53x3
We’re now projected into the final 7 seed on bracket matrix. There’s a lag as each bracket owner updates their projections, so that probably puts us closer towards the top 7 or even bottom 6 at the moment.

Going through Q1 and Q2 wins + Q3 losses for the each seed line through the 5 seed:

Seed. Team / Q1 wins / Q2 wins / - Q3 losses

8. Gonzaga / 3 / 5
8. UConn / 5 / 6
8. Mississippi St / 7 / 5
8. Kansas / 5 / 5
7. Illinois / 8 / 6
7. Memphis / 6 / 5 / -2
7. BYU / 5 / 7
7. UCLA / 9 / 4 / -1
6. Louisville / 4 / 6
6. Ole Miss / 6 / 6
6. Marquette / 5 / 5
6. St Mary’s / 4 / 6
5. Missouri / 6 / 3
5. Oregon / 8 / 6
5. Clemson / 4 / 8 / -1
5. Michigan / 9 / 5
 
#286      
SkyysNotFalling
lstewart53x3 said:
We’re now projected into the final 7 seed on bracket matrix. There’s a lag as each bracket owner updates their projections, so that probably puts us closer towards the top 7 or even bottom 6 at the moment.

Going through Q1 and Q2 wins + Q3 losses for the each seed line through the 5 seed:

Seed. Team / Q1 wins / Q2 wins / - Q3 losses

8. Gonzaga / 3 / 5
8. UConn / 5 / 6
8. Mississippi St / 7 / 5
8. Kansas / 5 / 5
7. Illinois / 8 / 6
7. Memphis / 6 / 5 / -2
7. BYU / 5 / 7
7. UCLA / 9 / 4 / -1
6. Louisville / 4 / 6
6. Ole Miss / 6 / 6
6. Marquette / 5 / 5
6. St Mary’s / 4 / 6
5. Missouri / 6 / 3
5. Oregon / 8 / 6
5. Clemson / 4 / 8 / -1
5. Michigan / 9 / 5
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Bracket Matrix typically lags a day or two until next week
 
#287      
grue2
lstewart53x3 said:
We’re now projected into the final 7 seed on bracket matrix. There’s a lag as each bracket owner updates their projections, so that probably puts us closer towards the top 7 or even bottom 6 at the moment.

Going through Q1 and Q2 wins + Q3 losses for the each seed line through the 5 seed:

Seed. Team / Q1 wins / Q2 wins / - Q3 losses

8. Gonzaga / 3 / 5
8. UConn / 5 / 6
8. Mississippi St / 7 / 5
8. Kansas / 5 / 5
7. Illinois / 8 / 6
7. Memphis / 6 / 5 / -2
7. BYU / 5 / 7
7. UCLA / 9 / 4 / -1
6. Louisville / 4 / 6
6. Ole Miss / 6 / 6
6. Marquette / 5 / 5
6. St Mary’s / 4 / 6
5. Missouri / 6 / 3
5. Oregon / 8 / 6
5. Clemson / 4 / 8 / -1
5. Michigan / 9 / 5
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Once you have played ~8 Q1 games, I think the win percentage is more important than the raw win count. Which would you rate higher, the team that is 6-2 in Q1, or the team that is 8-10?
 
#288      
lstewart53x3
grue2 said:
Once you have played ~8 Q1 games, I think the win percentage is more important than the raw win count. Which would you rate higher, the team that is 6-2 in Q1, or the team that is 8-10?
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That’s a fair point, and I’m unsure how the committee compares total Q1 wins to Q1 winning percentage, but I remember a few years ago, Gonzaga really made it a point to beef up their non-conference schedule for this exact reason—while they had a good record in Q1 games, they weren’t playing a high enough volume of them.

I have also read that Q1 losses don’t necessarily hurt you, and why would they? Should we penalized for playing Duke in the garden while Memphis plays their 10th Q3 game of the season? Isn’t that the kind of atmosphere college basketball wants to incentivize?

And if Q1 losses can’t hurt you, that means winning percentage in Q1 games is less impactful than total wins. But again, I’m 100% sure if I’m correct on that.

I don’t remember teams playing 18-20 games even before conference tourneys last year.
 
#290      
PepeSilvia
lstewart53x3 said:
For as great as last year was, did you guys know the first and only ranked win of the season was Iowa St in the Sweet 16?

Whereas this year, we have wins against currently ranked teams: Purdue, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin + formerly ranked Oregon.

Last year, we were 5-6 in Q1 games headed into the BTT, whereas this year, we’re 8-9. The injuries and illness really put a damper on this year, but this has been a historically difficult schedule, and you’ve gotta tip your hat to the way these kids finished the season.
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Big10 was really bad last year outside of Purdue and Illinois.

Played 3 teams that were ranked in non-con. Beating #11 FAU while losing to Marquette and Tennessee.

Purdue was literally the only ranked opponent on the Big10 schedule.

This year the only ranked non con game that we won was Arkansas who is no longer ranked. We've just played 7 games against big 10 opponents that were ranked when we played them(though I think Michigan could be at risk of falling out).
 
#292      
IlliniRunIn07
PepeSilvia said:
This year the only ranked non con game that we won was Arkansas who is no longer ranked. We've just played 7 games against big 10 opponents that were ranked when we played them(though I think Michigan could be at risk of falling out).
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Rankings being fluid as they are makes it really hard to quantify. When I think back to the Oregon win, I remember it as a blowout of a top 10 team on the road and it doesn't matter what they are ranked now (in my mind). But then I use the opposite logic when I think about how we beat an unranked Mizzou team who has climbed their way into the top 15 as it probably is really our best win of the year.
 
#294      
jrichisamazing
I'm not great at predicting where teams will be playing. But I think as long as St Johns gets a protected seed then they will be playing their first/second round games in Providence. Currently a 3 seed, that would be a brutal draw for us as a 6 seed.
 
#298      
jrichisamazing
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
I dunno, a 6-seed seems ideal for reaching the second weekend. But I would absolutely not want to be the 1-seed that faces an 8-seeded Illinois team.
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The 8/9 seeds right now seem historically scary. Kansas, UConn, Gonzaga, Creighton, and Baylor??? That's some serious fire power. Any other year i would probably pick 2 or even 3 of them to get upset and 1. But this year the 1 seeds are so strong i just can't see it happening.
 
#300      
Mr. Roberts
jrichisamazing said:
The 8/9 seeds right now seem historically scary. Kansas, UConn, Gonzaga, Creighton, and Baylor??? That's some serious fire power. Any other year i would probably pick 2 or even 3 of them to get upset and 1. But this year the 1 seeds are so strong i just can't see it happening.
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Will make for good first weekend TV hype. But I agree, the 1s will roll.
 
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