Week of 3/3 Bracketology

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#451      
Toews
If we are a 6 it’s most likely Milwaukee, Denver, or Wichita. Depends on the 2/3 seed line fight but I don’t see a ton of movement there
 
#452      
Navy_illini
Illini2010-11 said:
Dependent on how other teams perform, I would have to think a trip to the semis will be strong consideration for a 5 seed.

If OSU is the team we face, that will be another Quad 1 opportunity, so a win there, and a 6 seed should be locked up. Probably the same for beating Iowa (though likely Quad 2 game).

Beat MD for another Quad 1 win, with 22 wins (10 being Quad 1), that is ripe for a 5 seed.

Make it to finals, Illini are a near lock for a 5 seed, and maybe approaching 4 seed territory.
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Normally you don’t jump much from conference tournament performance. First round game has impact after that less impact

But who knows this year is the closest I have seen 3-7 seeds in a long time
 
#453      
DevILLDawg

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#454      
the juiceman cometh
DevILLDawg said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1898423659154342349

I don't see why Saint Mary's could be a 5 over us or the other 6's.
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The strongest argument in favor of St. Mary's over us is they have 2 wins against Gonzaga, who are ranked #8 in NET. An away win against a top-10 NET team is particularly nice on the resume. We don't have a single win against a top-10 NET team. The highest ranked team we've beaten in #14 Purdue, at home. The highest ranked away win is #27 Michigan.

I do think if St. Mary's stumbles in their conference tourney there could be an opening there for us to pass them.
 
#455      
DevILLDawg
the juiceman cometh said:
The strongest argument in favor of St. Mary's over us is they have 2 wins against Gonzaga, who are ranked #8 in NET. An away win against a top-10 NET team is particularly nice on the resume. We don't have a single win against a top-10 NET team. The highest ranked team we've beaten in #14 Purdue, at home. The highest ranked away win is #27 Michigan.

I do think if St. Mary's stumbles in their conference tourney there could be an opening there for us to pass them.
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If NET is the only thing the committee goes off then...sure. But that #8 NET team is an 8 seed in the tourney as of now so I'd have to assume that is taken into consideration. I like to look at presumptive games against the current F068.

They have beaten an 8 seed twice and 2 lower Quad 1 games.

We have wins against a 3, 4, 2 (5) seeds, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12...

2x the amount of Quad 1 wins.

Blind resume noone picks Saint Mary's over Illinois on seeding.
 
#458      
eas23
You can't just throw UC San Diego's logo in there like we're supposed to know whose logo that is and that they're good enough to be an 11 seed. 😂
 
#459      
Noblesville Illini
Navy_illini said:
Normally you don’t jump much from conference tournament performance. First round game has impact after that less impact

But who knows this year is the closest I have seen 3-7 seeds in a long time
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I’m with you Navy, even if we win it all, I am guessing our ceiling is a 5. Maybe it would get us closer to playing nearer to home, but that’s it.
 
#461      
Mobi
Lysol623 said:
The most likely way tonthe S16 is a 4 or 5 in Milwaukee. A 6 seed is good for the deeper run, but also means we are more susceptible to losing the first game against an 11. And would likely be underdogs against a 3.
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4/5 gives you better chances to go to the 2nd week but historically I am not sure if 11 seeds were much stronger than the 12 seeds. If I were to choose, I am tempted at getting a 6 since I feel like we have not terrible chances against 2/3 seeds. This is the year with 3-4 very strong 1 seeds.
 
#462      
Noblesville Illini
Mobi said:
4/5 gives you better chances to go to the 2nd week but historically I am not sure if 11 seeds were much stronger than the 12 seeds. If I were to choose, I am tempted at getting a 6 since I feel like we have not terrible chances against 2/3 seeds. This is the year with 3-4 very strong 1 seeds.
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Guys, I’m a match-ups believer. Seeds matter for sure, but matchups just as much or more
 
#463      
Illinijoe
the juiceman cometh said:
Well a bunch of brackets are doing exactly that which is why they're ahead of us on Bracket Matrix, so I don't know what to tell you.
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The good news is while bracket matrix is right in aggregate historically, there have been plenty of examples of them being off 1-2 seeds for outlier teams. We are certainly an outlier team this year. Personally, I think we are a 6 and matrix has st Mary’s a 5
 
#464      
RML
Fighter of the Nightman said:
They literally TRY to give home games to protected seeds, though, and I like it. When you have an elite season, you get rewarded with paths like our 2005 path through Indy and Chicago!
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My point is that its only SOME high seeds that get protected, and that's not "fair" (in the sense of everyone in the same situation should get treated the same.).
(Fwiw, I would be happy with a system in which ALL the top four seeds play their first weekend games at their TRUE home (though that would be bad for us this year).)
 
#465      
Illinijoe
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
To say this in the best way I can - I'm afraid we're way too optimistic about this. One win in BTT against a non-tourney team like OSU or Iowa gets us to a 5?? Not to just dwell on one conference because after all this is 7-8 teams at most, but there is a logjam of SEC teams with way tougher schedules than us, better quality wins, and less losses. Look at Kentucky for example: they have wins @Mizzou, Florida, and @Tennessee, Duke, on and on. Mizzou has won @Florida and beat Alabama. Ole Miss just beat Tennessee and has big wins.

I hope ur right, but if we can just end up at a 6 I'm more than happy. Will surviving one day in Indy get us there. Plus, I'd argue the six might be better than the 4/5.
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OSU is yet another Q1 win. Would surpass last years Q1 wins. Metric wise this team is up there with the 5s/6s
 
#467      
the juiceman cometh
Illinijoe said:
The good news is while bracket matrix is right in aggregate historically, there have been plenty of examples of them being off 1-2 seeds for outlier teams. We are certainly an outlier team this year. Personally, I think we are a 6 and matrix has st Mary’s a 5
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For sure, and I would not be surprised to see us come out ahead of St. Mary's.

That's a bit different than saying "no one picks St. Mary's ahead of us," or there is no rational argument for doing so.
 
#469      
DevILLDawg
the juiceman cometh said:
For sure, and I would not be surprised to see us come out ahead of St. Mary's.

That's a bit different than saying "no one picks St. Mary's ahead of us," or there is no rational argument for doing so.
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Line them up juice....

4 vs 8 quad 1 wins

Wins against field
2 wins vs. 8 seed
Vs...

Wins against
3 line
4 line
5 line x 2 *each by 20+ points
6 line
7 line
10 line
11 line
12 Line

The strength of schedule isn't close either..
 
#470      
the juiceman cometh
DevILLDawg said:
Line them up juice....

4 vs 8 quad 1 wins

Wins against field
2 wins vs. 8 seed
Vs...

Wins against
3 line
4 line
5 line x 2 *each by 20+ points
6 line
7 line
10 line
11 line
12 Line

The strength of schedule isn't close either..
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I don't disagree with any of these metrics.

But you're also picking metrics that justify your argument.

Someone who wants to pick St. Mary's can play the same game.

They can point out that St. Mary's played the schedule in front of them and had a better winning percentage against Quad 1 and 2 teams (10-4/.714 vs. 14-11/.560).

We've faced one common opponent, Nebraska, who St. Mary's beat, and who we lost to.

It'll be interesting to see how the committee evaluates St. Mary's. I do think they are one of the more difficult teams to seed.
 
#472      
DevILLDawg
the juiceman cometh said:
I don't disagree with any of these metrics.

But you're also picking metrics that justify your argument.

Someone who wants to pick St. Mary's can play the same game.

They can point out that St. Mary's played the schedule in front of them and had a better winning percentage against Quad 1 and 2 teams (10-4/.714 vs. 14-11/.560).

We've faced one common opponent, Nebraska, who St. Mary's beat, and who we lost to.

It'll be interesting to see how the committee evaluates St. Mary's. I do think they are one of the more difficult teams to seed.
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That's fair. I've always weighted SOS heavily in my own adjusted rankings.

They just aren't nearly as battle tested as a Missouri, Ole Miss, Illinois etc. I think you can't likewise hold that against those teams who have played a gauntlet schedule.
 
#473      
DeonThomas
DevILLDawg said:
That's fair. I've always weighted SOS heavily in my own adjusted rankings.

They just aren't nearly as battle tested as a Missouri, Ole Miss, Illinois etc. I think you can't likewise hold that against those teams who have played a gauntlet schedule.
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SOS.......which could be construed as NET ranking.
 
#474      
DeonThomas
Illini now #23 in the latest CBS Top 25. Consistent with our #6 NCAA tourney seed projection.

(Certainly a #5 seed, and probably even #4 seed, seems easily in-play if we stay hot. The nine or ten programs immediately ahead of us can all be overtaken this week, especially if we were to get four more Quad 1 victories. We're a long way from being settled.)

The BTT has been one of Underwood's recent strengths.
 
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