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Old Dec 19, 2016, 05:12 PM   #26
VAIllini35
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I am guessing those interested in this thread open their Christmas presents before Halloween?
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 06:49 PM   #27
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Final Four here we come. Book it.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 08:28 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by bleedsorangenblue View Post
Some good insights and analysis in this thread I think it is pretty clear that no major damage has been done to our chances to make the tournament thus far. We will have many opportunities to advance our cause throughout the season and the potential to lay some eggs. I would like to see a season where we over-perform and are not sweating bullets on selection day. Remember what that feels like? I see the talent and the seeds of good team effort for this to happen.
I disagree. I think that Winthrop loss (even though they are a decent team) makes the standard we have to pass the rest of the year at least somewhat higher. At least we rebounded from that horrid stretch reasonably well.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 08:34 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Golfer63 View Post
BTW I bet MSU sneaks into the tourney this year as a 9 or 10 seed and makes a run to the FF. Seems like to Total Michigan State Izzoesque Move.
I could easily see them getting in, but unless their big guys somehow come back, I don't see them overcoming their injuries to make any kind of run.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 08:45 PM   #30
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I disagree. I think that Winthrop loss (even though they are a decent team) makes the standard we have to pass the rest of the year at least somewhat higher. At least we rebounded from that horrid stretch reasonably well.


I haven't been keeping track, but how many Big 10 teams have a worse loss than we do at this point? I'm genuinely curious. I have to imagine that when it comes to bad losses, more than half the conference has a worse loss than Winthrop. Anyone care to confirm or refute that?
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 08:48 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by IlliniRunIn07 View Post
I haven't been keeping track, but how many Big 10 teams have a worse loss than we do at this point? I'm genuinely curious. I have to imagine that when it comes to bad losses, more than half the conference has a worse loss than Winthrop. Anyone care to confirm or refute that?
Winthrop actually has a pretty decent RPI at 74. MizNoz (at RPI 253) would be a MUCH worse loss. But it's the way we lost the Winthrop game that hurts.

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Old Dec 19, 2016, 09:05 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by champaignchris View Post
Good win games we should lose (5): @ Ind. 1/7, Mich 1/11, @ PU 1/17, @ Mich 1/21, Wisc. 1/31

The swing games that will probably determine whether we dance (8): @ MD 12/27, Ohio St. 1/1, MD 1/14, Minn 2/4, @ NW 2/7, @ Iowa 2/18, NW 2/21, MSU 3/1
Losing twice to Mich this year could be a killer. Winning all of of the home "swing" games would be a pleasant surprise. Too bad the Illini play MSU 3/1 instead of 1/1. I suspect that MSU will be a much better team on 3/1 than they are on 1/1.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 09:09 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by IlliniRunIn07 View Post
I haven't been keeping track, but how many Big 10 teams have a worse loss than we do at this point? I'm genuinely curious. I have to imagine that when it comes to bad losses, more than half the conference has a worse loss than Winthrop. Anyone care to confirm or refute that?
I'm bored. So looking at the 5-12 tier of the B1G (I assume Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan are the top 4; Rutgers and PSU are bottom 2).

Minnesota has only lost to FSU, that's good for them.
OSU lost to Florida Atlantic, worse than Winthrop.
NW's worst loss in ND, that's good for them.
Maryland has only lost to Pittsburgh... better than Winthrop.
MSU lost to Northeastern, probably worse than Winthrop, but pretty ballpark.
Iowa lost to Nebraska Omaha, worst than Winthrop.
Nebraska lost to Gardner Webb, worst than Winthrop.

Technically, Rutgers has only lost to Miami, which puts them right up there with Minnesota and NW on this test.

You can also toss in Fort Wayne for Indiana, which is very Winthrop-esqe.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 10:19 PM   #34
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I'm bored. So looking at the 5-12 tier of the B1G (I assume Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan are the top 4; Rutgers and PSU are bottom 2).

Minnesota has only lost to FSU, that's good for them.
OSU lost to Florida Atlantic, worse than Winthrop.
NW's worst loss in ND, that's good for them.
Maryland has only lost to Pittsburgh... better than Winthrop.
MSU lost to Northeastern, probably worse than Winthrop, but pretty ballpark.
Iowa lost to Nebraska Omaha, worst than Winthrop.
Nebraska lost to Gardner Webb, worst than Winthrop.

Technically, Rutgers has only lost to Miami, which puts them right up there with Minnesota and NW on this test.

You can also toss in Fort Wayne for Indiana, which is very Winthrop-esqe.
Adding on to this.. Bubble teams are on the bubble for a reason. They either had some head scratching losses but solid wins, or they didn't have much of a resume to prove if they were good or bad. Normally people believe that a top win cancels out a bad loss, but the past few years the committee has been putting much more value in good wins over bad losses.

The other side of the spectrum:

Top 100 wins:
Minnesota: 2 - Arkansas (43rd), Vanderbilt (78th)
tOSU: 2 - Providence (50th), UConn (76th)
NW: 3 - Dayton (39th), Wake Forest (53rd) Texas (80th)
Maryland: 3 - Kansas State (32nd), Ok State (34th), (Georgetown (54th)
Michigan State: 1 - Wichita State (24th)
Iowa: 1 - Iowa State (31st), Northern Iowa (86th)
Nebraska: 1 - Dayton (39th)
Rutgers: 0
Purdue: 2 - Notre Dame (25th), Auburn (99th)
Wisconsin: 6 - Syracuse (28th), Marquette (40th), Providence (50th), Oklahoma (51st), Georgetown (54th), Tenn (81st)
Indiana: 2 - Kansas (5th), UNC (6th). They could probably lose to IPFW 3 times in a row at home and still be in pretty good shape with those wins.
Michigan: 3 - Marquette (40th), SMU (41st), Texas (80th)
Penn State: 0
Illinois: 3 - VCU (50th), NC State (55th), BYU (61st)

As of now, IU and Wisc have better wins than us but we're right with Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern with 3 solid wins. I think we're ahead of everyone else in the conference when it comes to quality wins. This might not mean much but I think it shows that we're in good shape right, but we still need to make noise in conference play.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 10:44 PM   #35
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You guys are crazy for looking up RPI and all that stuff. It's going to change so much in the next 4-6 weeks. Plus a good chunk of these teams will play their way off the bubble in that same time period (either solidly in or out of the tournament).

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Old Dec 19, 2016, 10:52 PM   #36
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You guys are crazy for looking up RPI and all that stuff. It's going to change so much in the next 4-6 weeks. Plus a good chunk of these teams will play their way off the bubble in that same time period (either solidly in or out of the tournament).
FWIW, I used kenpom and don't have work tomorrow. It might not mean much, but it's at least something to combat the posts people make about how we have no quality wins so far. But we're all a little crazy, I mean, it's mid December and we're in a bracketology thread.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 10:59 PM   #37
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FWIW, I used kenpom and don't have work tomorrow. It might not mean much, but it's at least something to combat the posts people make about how we have no quality wins so far. But we're all a little crazy, I mean, it's mid December and we're in a bracketology thread.
I love Bracketology talk. And it's all the more better that Illinois is relevant (for now at least!). I just love the discussions and theories and seeing teams come into the picture and go out of the picture with each day and each game. It's like being a casting director discussing actors for a play. Fascinating.
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Old Dec 19, 2016, 11:04 PM   #38
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 12:31 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Newman View Post
FWIW, I used kenpom and don't have work tomorrow. It might not mean much, but it's at least something to combat the posts people make about how we have no quality wins so far. But we're all a little crazy, I mean, it's mid December and we're in a bracketology thread.
Are you sure you're using kenpom? The rankings on the main page have our wins at 56, 59 and 61, so no top 50 wins

The reason I noticed was because you have Providence listed as #50 as well
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 02:43 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by ballislife17 View Post
Are you sure you're using kenpom? The rankings on the main page have our wins at 56, 59 and 61, so no top 50 wins

The reason I noticed was because you have Providence listed as #50 as well
On the team pages, Pomeroy ranks games as A or B tier. IIRC it's something similar to A being a top-50 game on a neutral court, and B a top-100. That's adjusted for home court, so playing #40 at home would be a B and playing #60 on the road would probably be an A. So far we've lost our 2 "A" games and won all three "B" games, plus the loss to Winthrop.

Edit: more details on that (http://kenpom.com/blog/tiers-of-joy/), apparently the claim is that a top-50 neutral site win is similar to a top-20 home win or top-90 road win in most seasons.

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Old Dec 20, 2016, 09:03 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by champaignchris View Post
Bad loss games we should win (5): Iowa 1/25, @ PSU 1/28, PSU 2/11, @ Neb 2/26, @ RU 3/4

Good win games we should lose (5): @ Ind. 1/7, Mich 1/11, @ PU 1/17, @ Mich 1/21, Wisc. 1/31

The swing games that will probably determine whether we dance (8): @ MD 12/27, Ohio St. 1/1, MD 1/14, Minn 2/4, @ NW 2/7, @ Iowa 2/18, NW 2/21, MSU 3/1

If we win all the first category (and Mizzou), lose all the second, and then win just the home games in the third, we should be dancing with an opening round win in the BTT.
I wouldn't consider at home vs. Mich to be a "should lose" game. I would think it'd fall under the "swing games." I think we split with Mich this year. We win at home and lose on the road. Also, a loss at home to Minny would be a bad loss in my book. They are improved, but not on the level of the MD, tOSU, and Iowa's of the world.
I'd also put @PSU into the swing game. Did you see their game against St. Johns on Sunday. I know we are used to seeing them as below average to bottom feeder in the B1G but they brought in a talented freshman class this year. They will have some growing pains, and I don't expect them to go anywhere this year post season wise, but don't be surprised if they are dancing in the next couple years.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 09:12 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by ballislife17 View Post
Are you sure you're using kenpom? The rankings on the main page have our wins at 56, 59 and 61, so no top 50 wins

The reason I noticed was because you have Providence listed as #50 as well
I did but I had a couple of errora. Your numbers are right. I would give or take 30 spots for each team though this early in the season. The wins may end up as top 50 but it's way too early to tell. I have more faith in BYU and NC State ending up in the top 50 but Im not sure if VCU will improve much.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 09:17 AM   #43
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I wouldn't consider at home vs. Mich to be a "should lose" game. I would think it'd fall under the "swing games." I think we split with Mich this year. We win at home and lose on the road. Also, a loss at home to Minny would be a bad loss in my book. They are improved, but not on the level of the MD, tOSU, and Iowa's of the world.
I'd also put @PSU into the swing game. Did you see their game against St. Johns on Sunday. I know we are used to seeing them as below average to bottom feeder in the B1G but they brought in a talented freshman class this year. They will have some growing pains, and I don't expect them to go anywhere this year post season wise, but don't be surprised if they are dancing in the next couple years.
St. Johns and Penn State are pretty bad. At this point it would be a bad loss to lose to them on the road. They might end up in the top 100 but they're not far off from Rutgers right now. Also, Minny wouldn't be a bad loss at this point despite their history. Still, it should be a game we win if we want to dance.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 11:12 AM   #44
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St John's, Oregon State, Missouri or Rutgers... who's the worst of the 4?
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 11:17 AM   #45
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St John's, Oregon State, Missouri or Rutgers... who's the worst of the 4?
Oregon State
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 11:43 AM   #46
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I think people are underestimating Rutgers and Minnesota a bit. Rutgers is currently 11-1 with lots of blowout wins. One decent win at Depaul. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone really good, but they're off to a much better start than last season. I'm not saying Rutgers will be good, but they may be capable of surprising some teams at home. I actually think Minnesota will be quite a bit better than last year. They beat a solid Arkansas team by 14 and their only loss was a close game @FSU. I'm glad we only play them in Champaign this year.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 11:46 AM   #47
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I think people are underestimating Rutgers and Minnesota a bit. Rutgers is currently 11-1 with lots of blowout wins. One decent win at Depaul. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone really good, but they're off to a much better start than last season. I'm not saying Rutgers will be good, but they may be capable of surprising some teams at home. I actually think Minnesota will be quite a bit better than last year. They beat a solid Arkansas team by 14 and their only loss was a close game @FSU. I'm glad we only play them in Champaign this year.
Minnesota, I'll give you, but Rutgers? I'm sorry, 11-1 they may be but they have played absolutely butt teams. Have they played anyone under a 150 in KenPom, even?
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 11:46 AM   #48
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I think people are underestimating Rutgers and Minnesota a bit. Rutgers is currently 11-1 with lots of blowout wins. One decent win at Depaul. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone really good, but they're off to a much better start than last season. I'm not saying Rutgers will be good, but they may be capable of surprising some teams at home. I actually think Minnesota will be quite a bit better than last year. They beat a solid Arkansas team by 14 and their only loss was a close game @FSU. I'm glad we only play them in Champaign this year.

That was a funny joke when you called DePaul a decent win.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 11:48 AM   #49
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I think people are underestimating Rutgers and Minnesota a bit. Rutgers is currently 11-1 with lots of blowout wins. One decent win at Depaul. Sure, they haven't beaten anyone really good, but they're off to a much better start than last season. I'm not saying Rutgers will be good, but they may be capable of surprising some teams at home. I actually think Minnesota will be quite a bit better than last year. They beat a solid Arkansas team by 14 and their only loss was a close game @FSU. I'm glad we only play them in Champaign this year.
I think their FSU game was a bit misleading. I think they were getting beat pretty easily and then scored some garbage baskets during garbage time that made it closer than it really was. But i agree that Minnesota does look like a tough team so far this year. They have impressed me and look dangerous.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 11:55 AM   #50
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Minnesota, I'll give you, but Rutgers? I'm sorry, 11-1 they may be but they have played absolutely butt teams. Have they played anyone under a 150 in KenPom, even?


They're better than last year. Corey Sanders is still a stud, and they have some long athletic bigs. Their schedule is a joke, but why would a coach schedule like Kim Anderson knowing that your team is still down. FWIW, the Tigers have 7/8 guys who can play, it's only a matter of having all of them playing their A game on the same night. Transfer Walton from Memphis is s spark off the bench.

PSU isn't going to get pushed over either. When you have a guy like Terrance Samuel coming off the bench it means that your guard play is above average. Chambers is finally getting that program on a upswing. It's going to be like playing Taylor Battle lead Nittany Lion squads. Dechillis was a solid coach but Chambers can take them to a level above just competing.

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