Expectations

[idoc13]

What is the appropriate expectation level for the program over the next 5 years? How long do you think it will take for the Illini to be nationally relevant again?

[Lab Rat]

We had better make the NCAAs by Gross' second year, then we had better stay there and then be in a final four in five years or we have another mid-major hire gone wrong, again.

[illinifan31]

If we don't make the tourny this season I will be very mad, mostly because as a student, I have hardly gotten a taste of it and now I'm a Senior.

[Sure Shot]

As Justice Stewart said about obscenity: "I know it when I see it."

[justsomedude]

My expectations for year one and two are more intangible than tangible. While I expect them to make the tournament, I'm more interested in seeing if they play together, if kids improve, if the team improves in feb and march, are the aggressive, does groce appear to be recruiting talent.

By yet five I fully expect the team to be an established program where you can expect top 4 - 5 seeds annually with some occasional years that we have a real shot at FF/NC.

[illinicb]

Originally Posted by justsomedude

My expectations for year one and two are more intangible than tangible.

I agree with this and Sure Shot's comment. We know losing a ton of games will not be "acceptable", but it is hard for me to put numbers on expectations. Winning more games, recruiting well, player development would all be meeting expectations. Wins will follow.

So far I think JG seems to have done well, but we are all looking at him through orange colored glasses. I think we'll have a pretty good idea which direction the program is headed twelve months from now.

[FredrickFremont]

Originally Posted by Lab Rat

We had better make the NCAAs by Gross' second year, then we had better stay there and then be in a final four in five years or we have another mid-major hire gone wrong, again.

You forgot to add a "slams fist on table" emocon.

For me, it's realistic to expect S16s with the possibility of going further and with a puncher's chance of cutting down the nets every year. Whether that starts in '13, '14, '15 not sure, but we'd be "nationally relevant" if we consistently made noise in recruiting and the tourney.

As for the near term, I could really see the style and attitude change have a major impact starting next season, where we end up on a high note, squeaking into the tourney, and being one of those low-seeded high majors that nobody wants to play.

Then, hopefully in `13, the last few years will be well in the rear-view mirror.

[Calvin]

I hope we make the tourney this year. I'm expecting us to be a borderline dance team in a tough BIG conference. I like our chances of making it frankly.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by Lab Rat

We had better make the NCAAs by Gross' second year, then we had better stay there and then be in a final four in five years or we have another mid-major hire gone wrong, again.

If we don't make a FF in the next 4-5 years it means we have another mid-major hire gone wrong? Really? We aren't kentucky here. Let's be real. We should be competing for B1G champs by that time and consistently making S16 runs but to say if we don't make a FF it means we hired the wrong guy is a bit ridiculous.

[EdgyInChina]

Originally Posted by idoc13

What is the appropriate expectation level for the program over the next 5 years? How long do you think it will take for the Illini to be nationally relevant again?

I have high hopes... but that is all that they are... Just Hopes...

Expectations: You won't see a tourney invite in '12... Same players as last year, minus a first round NBA pick.... Re-Training 20 year olds, who already think they know everything, to change their bad habits, like how to dribble, shoot and pass (to another illini player) will be (and has been) frustrating to watch...

JG is way too far behind the curve on getting any of the 4*-5* kids in '13 & 14. Which means we'll see many more Illinois kids go elsewhere. Getting 3* or MAC level players, to compliment the occasional 4* won't consistently put you on the national radar. Additionally, it appears that some of the current players don't really fit JG's stated 'type'... So they will have to be winnowed out (so to speak) or we'll see a longer road to recovery. Getting a "Point Guard" seems to be the make/break-point in his scheme... And I don't see him on the horizon.

Ultimately, it all boils down to wins. IF he can coach his way to some wins, then you can spark some interest from some up and comers. Kids who think they are good coming out of HS (and think they already know everything), don't want to play for some perceived loser (perception is 90% of the battle here - not reality) - even if it is their home school... RE: J.Parker has stated that he wants to play for a team that has a legitimate shot at a NC in his first and only year. Guess what?.. He isn't coming to Illinois.

Many on this board revere Lou, but it took him 7 years (?I forget) to get to the NIT... Yes things are different now, so I don't expect it will take that long... However, it won't happen overnight - and if does, the ncaa will be wondering why... It took Crean 3 years to pull IU out of a big hole, and I expect that will be about the right time frame.... During the discussions concerning the JG hire, it was stated that before he consented to take the job, he wanted to be sure that he would be given enough time to build a system here. THAT tells me that he knew it wouldn't be overnight also... SO.... IF JG can make some inroads with the 2015 class, then we can start (START) to see some fruits of all his labor.... I don't expect much before then... consequently, I have low expectations...

But don't misinterpret this.. I still have high hopes... But that is all they are... Just hopes...

[jhayton]

My expectations are low for this years team. I will be happy if we see improvement throughout the year (tough to gauge though with the wimpy, IIRC, NC schedule). For the future who knows, but if we aren't at or near the top of the BIG every year by years 3, 4, and 5 then I think JG will be looking for another job.

Crean had to deal with sanctions and other crap at IU, our hole is quite a bit nearer the surface, but our BB prestige is quite a bit lower than IU's as well.

If you could have seen how I wrote this reply, about 5 different times, with equally different things to say, it kind of sums up the whole situation. My expectations are about as stable as a Bi-Polar on shopping spree.

[bleedsorangenblue]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

If we don't make a FF in the next 4-5 years it means we have another mid-major hire gone wrong? Really? We aren't kentucky here. Let's be real. We should be competing for B1G champs by that time and consistently making S16 runs but to say if we don't make a FF it means we hired the wrong guy is a bit ridiculous.

Agree with this ^^^^ I think we have to keep expectations somewhat in check. I know that everybody is optimistic about Groce and the direction the program is headed, but a dose of reality is in order. We are not currently a nationally relevant program and the road to becomming one may be a bit arduous. To expect that we can go from near the bottom of our league to the top of all of college basketball in 5 years is unrealistic. Sure it could happen but the chances of it happening are not great.

If we can become competitive in the B1G year in and year out, we have a chance to become an elite program. We have to win to be able to consistently attract the kinds of recruits that will take us to the top. Given the strength of the B1G, I don't see us cracking the top half of the league next year or even maybe the year after. I would hope that by year 3 we have done so. A couple tournament appearances by then and some kind of run will be gravy. We, then, have to be able to consistently perform at this level. We will attract some good players during these rebuilding years. It remains to be seen if they will be good enough and coached well enough to propell us to the next level.

If by year 3 we have not made a S16 or beyond, do we fire the coach? What if progress has been made but maybe not as fast as some would like? I can hear the rumblings in the fan base already. Is 5 years the absolute limit for success? How does one define success? I think that a final four appearance is too much to expect for most teams. I would consider us a success if we are consistently at or near the top of the B1G and consistently win some games in the tournament. Performance beyond this should be our goal but should not be the definition for a successful program.

[illinipicker]

Groce better be a damn good recruiter because he is not a good enough coach to win in the Big 10 with mediocre talent. I will be shocked if he lasts as long as Weber and in the end will not last as long nor have as good a resume as Weber by the time he leaves.

We traded down IMO! Gonna pay the price for it too!

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by illinipicker

Groce better be a damn good recruiter because he is not a good enough coach to win in the Big 10 with mediocre talent. I will be shocked if he lasts as long as Weber and in the end will not last as long nor have as good a resume as Weber by the time he leaves.

We traded down IMO! Gonna pay the price for it too!

Kinda like how he beat teams that Illinois couldn't beat with considerably less talent while he was at Ohio?? :laugh:

[Foo G]

I think the only realistic expectation for the next 5 years is steady improvement -- improved consistency, improved fundamental skill development, improved and renewed enthusiasm, improved attitudes, and increased fan support, patience, and devotion.
There's going to be a lot of roster change over this time and getting the right players into the program will probably not happen over night, so I don't feel it's fair to pin any win-loss expectations to the team for another 2-3 years.
It is always the hope of every Illinois fan that we will contend for Big 10 titles and deep NCAA tournament runs, but to expect that from this team for the next 2 years is probably unrealistic.
It may be possible, but is still very much unlikely.
However, with each small step in recruiting and player workout and development, that distance between Illinois basketball and high-level success starts to narrow.
It's going to be a long process to close the gap completely, but if the small steps are consistent, it will be a fun improvement/turn-around to watch.

[pizzaman]

Originally Posted by Foo G

I think the only realistic expectation for the next 5 years is steady improvement -- improved consistency, improved fundamental skill development, improved and renewed enthusiasm, improved attitudes, and increased fan support, patience, and devotion.

It's going to be a long process to close the gap completely, but if the small steps are consistent, it will be a fun improvement/turn-around to watch.

That's it! I'm not holding my breath for the NCAA's or even B1G benchmarks, I just want to see improvement during the season and from season to season. Improvement in play, coaching and recruiting. I know, I'm not expecting much, am I?

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

If we don't make a FF in the next 4-5 years it means we have another mid-major hire gone wrong? Really? We aren't kentucky here. Let's be real. We should be competing for B1G champs by that time and consistently making S16 runs but to say if we don't make a FF it means we hired the wrong guy is a bit ridiculous.

Yes. It is reasonable to expect that we will be competing for final fours, but there is too much random luck in a single-elimination tournament to set the final four as a benchmark. Thad Matta went five years between final fours at Ohio State despite dominating on the recruiting trail.

[IlliniRunIn07]

Originally Posted by Groundhogday

Yes. It is reasonable to expect that we will be competing for final fours, but there is too much random luck in a single-elimination tournament to set the final four as a benchmark. Thad Matta went five years between final fours at Ohio State despite dominating on the recruiting trail.

True. There's so many variables at play here. Let's say we're a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament the next five seasons (spoiler alert: we won't be), but we fail to reach the final four once. That will be a disappointment. I think what we're hoping for as fans is to be consistently go into the tournament as a 4 seed or so. A 4 seed would get us to the S16 on paper, with a legitimate shot to get to the elite 8 and beyond. Once we can get past the first weekend of the tournament rather routinely, then we'll start setting our goals as fans on getting to the final four. I think what we clamor for most is to be nationally relevant again. Make it past the first weekend of the tournament a couple times, and we will be. That's my realistic goal.

My unrealistic goal is a national championship every year. That's the only way to make our season not end in heartache.

[Sure Shot]

Originally Posted by illinipicker

Groce better be a damn good recruiter because he is not a good enough coach to win in the Big 10 with mediocre talent. I will be shocked if he lasts as long as Weber and in the end will not last as long nor have as good a resume as Weber by the time he leaves.

We traded down IMO! Gonna pay the price for it too!

I actually agree with this, but I would have agreed with it even more if we had hired circa-last-year Frank Haith.

It's a funny old game, and I'm more inclined to decide based on what I see Groce do at Illinois than what Groce did at Ohio. There's an argument to be made that high-major talent is fundamentally more capable of playing the way Groce wants to play than MAC-level talent. We'll see.

[UIUC2008]

Originally Posted by IlliniRunIn07

True. There's so many variables at play here. Let's say we're a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament the next five seasons (spoiler alert: we won't be), but we fail to reach the final four once. That will be a disappointment. I think what we're hoping for as fans is to be consistently go into the tournament as a 4 seed or so. A 4 seed would get us to the S16 on paper, with a legitimate shot to get to the elite 8 and beyond. Once we can get past the first weekend of the tournament rather routinely, then we'll start setting our goals as fans on getting to the final four. I think what we clamor for most is to be nationally relevant again. Make it past the first weekend of the tournament a couple times, and we will be. That's my realistic goal.

My unrealistic goal is a national championship every year. That's the only way to make our season not end in heartache.

I agree entirely with this sentiment. I want to be a Top 15 team perennially. This means being 3/4/5 seeds every year. Sweet 16's should be benchmark. Elite 8's and above are great seasons. Losing 2nd round is somewhat disappointing. Losing 1st round is a flop. NIT's are flat out unacceptable.

I'd like for our program to there in 3 years.

[morif]

I think several on here have too high of expectations for JG in his first year. If the Illini were somehow to get an invite to the NCAA in his first year that would be amazing!! If he can convince a couple of players from 2013 and 2014 to commit that fits his eye, I see that as being super successful!. After a couple of years of success in recruiting, I see us making the NCAA every year. As for a Final Four team, that will take some time and some luck. Even MSU and OS don't make the Final Four every year and they are the cream of the crop in the Big Ten IMO. That is not to say Groce can change that given some success in recruiting the talent he needs in his style of play. I really am getting some positive vibes about the direction JG and staff is taking the program. Let us not be too critical too early. If we can land DJ and CA I see the program making a huge jump forward!!

[Illiniwek06]

Originally Posted by morif

I think several on here have too high of expectations for JG in his first year. If the Illini were somehow to get an invite to the NCAA in his first year that would be amazing!! If he can convince a couple of players from 2013 and 2014 to commit that fits his eye, I see that as being super successful!. After a couple of years of success in recruiting, I see us making the NCAA every year. As for a Final Four team, that will take some time and some luck. Even MSU and OS don't make the Final Four every year and they are the cream of the crop in the Big Ten IMO. That is not to say Groce can change that given some success in recruiting the talent he needs in his style of play. I really am getting some positive vibes about the direction JG and staff is taking the program. Let us not be too critical too early. If we can land DJ and CA I see the program making a huge jump forward!!

Agreed. 17-15 overall, 6-12 in B1G play this past season. Subtract a lottery pick. B1G will be, by far, the most competitive conference in the nation. You do the math. I just don't see immediate success. Of course, I hope I'm wrong with my assessment.

[NnannasBananas11]

Originally Posted by Illiniwek06

Agreed. 17-15 overall, 6-12 in B1G play this past season. Subtract a lottery pick. B1G will be, by far, the most competitive conference in the nation. You do the math. I just don't see immediate success. Of course, I hope I'm wrong with my assessment.

Yes, we do lose a lottery pick, but I feel that everyone forgets that the rest of the team will have improved since the end of the season. Also, maybe the new system provides an ever bigger boost to the strides the underclassmen are already making and allows our seniors to finally realize their potential.

[justsomedude]

Originally Posted by morif

I think several on here have too high of expectations for JG in his first year. If the Illini were somehow to get an invite to the NCAA in his first year that would be amazing!! If he can convince a couple of players from 2013 and 2014 to commit that fits his eye, I see that as being super successful!. After a couple of years of success in recruiting, I see us making the NCAA every year. As for a Final Four team, that will take some time and some luck. Even MSU and OS don't make the Final Four every year and they are the cream of the crop in the Big Ten IMO. That is not to say Groce can change that given some success in recruiting the talent he needs in his style of play. I really am getting some positive vibes about the direction JG and staff is taking the program. Let us not be too critical too early. If we can land DJ and CA I see the program making a huge jump forward!!

It would be a good year to make the tournament, but definitely not "amazing". It's not really that difficult to make, and last year we weren't far off despite an epic collapse, a coach focused on insecure excuses, conflict in the staff and subtle division among upperclassmen and underclassmen players. The prior year we were a 9 seed despite a .500 conference record, and losses to UIC, Penn St a bad IU team, etc. The year before that we were on the bubble despite dropping 6 of 8 to end the year and losing to Bradley, Utah and Georgia.

If you look at our roster, we still have the second most 4 star talent in the B1G, we have one of the highest returning minutes, we have two other 3 star guys that were borderline top 100 in their 4th year. I tend to think some of our guys may have been overrated, but we should certainly have the talent to be able to make the tournament without an "amazing" year. I think you could find a scenario where we miss the tournament without it being cause for huge concern, but we shouldn't think simply making the tournament would be a unreasonable expectation either.

[Illiniwek06]

Originally Posted by NnannasBananas11

Yes, we do lose a lottery pick, but I feel that everyone forgets that the rest of the team will have improved since the end of the season. Also, maybe the new system provides an ever bigger boost to the strides the underclassmen are already making and allows our seniors to finally realize their potential.

How much improvement? Keep in mind that the top of the B1G either returns the majority of their players, are adding high level recruits, or both. I'm not saying that nobody on UI will improve, but will they improve enough for the team to be that much more competitive than last year's team, which featured a lottery pick?

Also, this will be the third offseason for BP3/DJ to improve. I hope the new staff/system sparks their desires to further improve their games, but I just don't see how much more they can improve individually based off of the last couple seasons. Now, I could certainly see the sophs making big strides forward, mostly because they didn't see significant PT their freshman year (with the exception of TA). I could also see TG specifically improve as the stretch 4 to Groce's system. All I'm saying is that, even with an improved Illini team, it may be a rough year, IMO. I'd expect the squad to be much more competitive beginning in 2013.