ESPN Picks O/U Wins

[Calvin]

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/...aders-division

Over-under: 6.5 wins

Adam's pick: Under. Illinois has some talent, particularly in the defensive front seven, but too many questions on offense combined with a tricky schedule, especially on the road, lead to another 6-6 season. The Illini drop at least one non-league game and squeak into a bowl at .500.

Brian's pick: Under. Road games at Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Arizona State are no picnic, and it feels like Northwestern is due at home. I'll call all those losses and throw in Purdue at home for 6-6.

[IlliniKat91]

Well, that's a far cry from the SI prediction. Just goes to show, opinions really are like noses.

[CaptainHindsight]

I'm going with OVER, but only because we win our 3rd bowl game in a row.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by CaptainHindsight

I'm going with OVER, but only because we win our 3rd bowl game in a row.

I think they are only talking about regular season games but I may be mistaken.

[Sure Shot]

I just don't get all the Purdue love.

If you return all your starters from a bad team with no quarterback, you still have a bad team with no quarterback.

[KBLEE]

Originally Posted by Sure Shot

I just don't get all the Purdue love.

If you return all your starters from a bad team with no quarterback, you still have a bad team with no quarterback.

[IntenselyOrange]

That's a good line. I'll take the over, but I'm not confident.

[TooHot4Tots]

Over.

[pygreg]

Under. I think we sweep non-con but the conf schedule (especially the road schedule) is just too freaking tough. 6-6 again.

Which, hey, I'm happy with 3 bowls in a row. Especially when we win again!

[IlliniPoke]

Count me as one that is not understanding all the love for Purdue either. Not sure how the will be better than last yeaar.

[stevo99]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

I think they are only talking about regular season games but I may be mistaken.

You're correct.

These are regular season lines independent of both bowl games and conference title games.

[blmillini]

Originally Posted by IlliniPoke

Count me as one that is not understanding all the love for Purdue either. Not sure how the will be better than last yeaar.

Not meaning to argue to the contrary but I don't understand why Illinois fans seem to never give Purdue any credit either. They have beaten us 6 out of the last 7 including last year and we may have suffered bigger losses. I hope you are right.

[FredrickFremont]

Originally Posted by blmillini

Not meaning to argue to the contrary but I don't understand why Illinois fans seem to never give Purdue any credit either. They have beaten us 6 out of the last 7 including last year and we may have suffered bigger losses. I hope you are right.

Well, Purdue has been pretty average over that time, and as far as last year is concerned, if there's such a thing as being out-coached in college football, then this game was a prime example. This was the "every year Zook loses one that he shouldn't" game for me (Minnesota notwithstanding because at that point the wheels had fallen off).

If I recall we came out flat, did absolutely nothing for three quarters, then figured out we could dink and dunk our way down field at will.

Point is, I think we won't lose nearly as many "games we shouldn't" with the new OCD-afflicted staff in place.

I'm taking the OVER.

[Botb9]

Originally Posted by blmillini

Not meaning to argue to the contrary but I don't understand why Illinois fans seem to never give Purdue any credit either. They have beaten us 6 out of the last 7 including last year and we may have suffered bigger losses. I hope you are right.

Probably the same reason other schools underrate us. We really should beat them, and then don't. With Purdue, though, we really should pay attention. Not a gimme by any stretch.

[GilThorpe]

about one of the few things that I actually like that Bobby Knight is famous for saying is " I'm effing sick and tired of effing losing to effing Purdue!"

[UIUC1867]

Over . . . barely over. 7-5.

GO ILLINI!

[illinicb]

Originally Posted by FredrickFremont

Point is, I think we won't lose nearly as many "games we shouldn't" with the new OCD-afflicted staff in place.

I don't know about OCD, but in general I agree that this staff should be better at making the decisions that win games. Hard not to be.

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by Sure Shot

I just don't get all the Purdue love.

If you return all your starters from a bad team with no quarterback, you still have a bad team with no quarterback.

They have a decent, experienced QB (and a couple of very experienced guys in reserve). Purdue returns 18 starters from a 7-6 (4-4) team that had signature wins against Illinois and OSU. This is year 4 of Hope's rebuilding job. I can see why pundits would think Purdue might make a move. If you look a bit more deeply, there are reasons to be skeptical.

According to the football outsiders, PU had the No. 84 offense and No. 69 defense. Where PU had a huge advantage over us was in special teams where they ranked No. 10 and we came in at 106. They also broke even on TO (+0.08 per game) whereas we had a lousy -0.46 per game. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus2011

Positives: Good and deep OL. Speed at WR. Experienced QBs. A couple of good DTs. A couple of good CBs.

Negatives: Very thin and lacking playmakers at RB. None of their WR have demonstrated an explosiveness or ability to make big plays. A QB who isn't a great runner and has a weak, somewhat accurate arm. Previous DC was fired, 2011 defense was below average, they lost their best LB, and no new impact defensive players. Big questions at safety and almost no LB depth.

With Hope, Purdue is going to be fundamentally sound but lacking in top shelf talent. There was no way we should have lost to PU last year, but they had Hope and we had Zook. That was the difference.

My take is that Purdue caught enough breaks to squeak out wins over disfunctional UI and OSU teams. They were otherwise blown out by good teams and squeaked by many no-so-good teams (and lost to Rice early in the season). It isn't enough for Purdue to simply build on last year. They need to improve substantially to have a chance of reaching a bowl game this year.

A big factor in our late season game with Purdue will be injuries. Neither team has a lot of depth at most positions, so it will be interesting to see who is still playing on Nov. 17.