Bracketology - The Week of February 11th

[illinihawk16]

Jerry Palm's Bracketology (updated this morning) has us at a 7 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

USAToday has us as a 10 seed

[Ransom Stoddard]

Honestly not a lot of difference between the two.

[Botb9]

That 4-7 record in the B1G is really ugly, and it shows in people's ratings.

[WeatherfordForMVP]

Originally Posted by illinihawk16

Jerry Palm's Bracketology (updated this morning) has us at a 7 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Would be thrilled with a 7 seed, and probably in the realm of possibility, too. Go 5-2 in the last 7 regular season games and do well in the tourney, and 6 or 5 might even be possible.

[chief78]

Originally Posted by illinihawk16

Jerry Palm's Bracketology (updated this morning) has us at a 7 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

If those 7 teams get in from the B1G - well that is a pretty tough bunch that should represent the B1G very well.

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Yahoo - 9 seed

[DrewD007]

I'll be happy with anything but an 8 or 9 seed. Although if this season has shown anything it's that there's no dominant team and it wouldn't be surprising for a 1 seed to go down in the second round. Fingers crossed for a 7.

[RyanK]

Originally Posted by Botb9

That 4-7 record in the B1G is really ugly, and it shows in people's ratings.

Luckily, conference record (supposedly) isn't looked at by the selection committee.

[Cool Hand Luke]

Originally Posted by WeatherfordForMVP

Would be thrilled with a 7 seed, and probably in the realm of possibility, too. Go 5-2 in the last 7 regular season games and do well in the tourney, and 6 or 5 might even be possible.

5-2 would put us at 22-10 (9-9) with one hell of a resume. I would think a 5 or 6 is definitely doable.

While I always maintain that ultimately the B1G Tourney is generally pretty meaningless, if we could go 2-1 that would put us at 24-11 with at least 1 more good win. I'd wager a 5 seed would just about be a lock.

All that said, please just get to 8-10 and in the danged tourney. I don't care what seed. Just get in, PLEASE.

[illynifan34]

Originally Posted by Cool Hand Luke

5-2 would put us at 22-10 (9-9) with one hell of a resume. I would think a 5 or 6 is definitely doable.

While I always maintain that ultimately the B1G Tourney is generally pretty meaningless, if we could go 2-1 that would put us at 24-11 with at least 1 more good win. I'd wager a 5 seed would just about be a lock.

All that said, please just get to 8-10 and in the danged tourney. I don't care what seed. Just get in, PLEASE.

As far as the committee is concerned, 5 more wins gets us to 21. They don't see, or count the Chaminade win.

[IlliniTilDeath]

Originally Posted by Cool Hand Luke

5-2 would put us at 22-10 (9-9) with one hell of a resume. I would think a 5 or 6 is definitely doable.

While I always maintain that ultimately the B1G Tourney is generally pretty meaningless, if we could go 2-1 that would put us at 24-11 with at least 1 more good win. I'd wager a 5 seed would just about be a lock.

All that said, please just get to 8-10 and in the danged tourney. I don't care what seed. Just get in, PLEASE.

+1. If we win the games we are supposed to win, we're definitely in the tourney. Wins outside of those should only help our seeding, which imo is just icing on the take based off of our recent tourney appearances.

[UofIChE06]

For all of those that think UI is hanging on by the skin of their teeth I have a question for you.

How many teams in the bracket (let's use CBS for this) are 5-6 or better against teams in the bracket?

[ChampaignLou]

I will be happy to just make the tournament. There is a plausible view of having a less than stellar conference record and not making the tournament in spite of having a great resume of beating top tier teams.

I think in the recent past where Illinois has been on the bubble, those Illinois teams sweated out bids because they didn't have those signature wins. This team definitely does not have that problem. In fact, I think that this team has the one of the best resumes in the country in spite of their conference record.

So a record of 7-11, 8-10 would be sufficient to make the tournament. 9-9 makes it a lock. I'm hoping for 9-9, but I think that the team will make it to 8-10 and an 8 seed.

[WizardBill]

10-8 and 23-9 a d a 4 seed. That is all dependent on us not winning the BTT. When we win the BTT, maybe a 3 seed.

[Illini70math]

The easy example is the 2011 Illini. We had a 19-12 regular season record with a loss to UIC and we lost our first BTT game to UM. We also lost at PSU, at NW, and at (bad) IU. That got us a 9-seed. Compare that to where we are this season.

[PointGuardU01]

Originally Posted by RyanK

Luckily, conference record (supposedly) isn't looked at by the selection committee.

This is exactly right and why we are in good shape as long as we win our home games. Another poster was also right about Chaminade win not counting or even being on our schedule when committee looks at it. In their eyes we are 16-8 with an incredibly tough schedule and 5 GREAT wins. We are in good shape. If we finish 3-4 that's 19-12 with a great schedule and wins = LOCK. BTT win wouldnt hurt but conference tournaments dont usually affect much in terms of at-large bids...may change seeding, and of course a team stealing an automatic bid can knock a team out, but not many teams play their way out of an at-large bid in their conference tourney...too much of the field has to be already in place when those games are played. They can't just sit down Sunday morning and start scratching stuff out.

[jrichisamazing]

Originally Posted by PointGuardU01

This is exactly right and why we are in good shape as long as we win our home games. Another poster was also right about Chaminade win not counting or even being on our schedule when committee looks at it. In their eyes we are 16-8 with an incredibly tough schedule and 5 GREAT wins. We are in good shape. If we finish 3-4 that's 19-12 with a great schedule and wins = LOCK. BTT win wouldnt hurt but conference tournaments dont usually affect much in terms of at-large bids...may change seeding, and of course a team stealing an automatic bid can knock a team out, but not many teams play their way out of an at-large bid in their conference tourney...too much of the field has to be already in place when those games are played. They can't just sit down Sunday morning and start scratching stuff out.

19-12(7-11) should get us in but it would be close. No team has ever gotten an at large bid with a conference record of more than 2 games below .500. I think we get to at least 8 wins and don't have to worry about it but based on history we would be right on the bubble at 19-12. It would be a shame if we got to 7-11 in the B1G and didn't get in because we deserve too.

[OrangeAndBlue217]

Originally Posted by jrichisamazing

19-12(7-11) should get us in but it would be close. No team has ever gotten an at large bid with a conference record of more than 2 games below .500. I think we get to at least 8 wins and don't have to worry about it but based on history we would be right on the bubble at 19-12. It would be a shame if we got to 7-11 in the B1G and didn't get in because we deserve too.

I am aware this is the case, but one may be hard pressed to find a team that has finished more than 2 games below in conference that has our resume. And in the best conference by far. A strange situation it would be but no other teams has our wins resume.

[Adnarel]

Please, please no 5 seed. It's cursed.

[cosmicpowers]

Lunardi's latest: 11 seed, and off the "last 4 in" list.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[UIUC2008]

Originally Posted by cosmicpowers

Lunardi's latest: 11 seed, and off the "last 4 in" list.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I think Lunardi got this one wrong. I'm not sure what he's looking at but when an 11 seed (last week) beats the #1 and #18 teams they should move up a little bit more than that.

[Botb9]

I get it; he doesn't trust us. Beat up on the Boilers this week and we're worthy of trust again.

Interesting numbers from the Nitty Gritty too. We're 26th in RPI, and we're the only team in the top 30 that has 2 so-called "bad losses" which are losses to the 101-200 ranks. The next closest team is UCLA at 38th. Maddening? Absolutely.

[Botb9]

Originally Posted by Adnarel

Please, please no 5 seed. It's cursed.

The 5-12 matchup is always the most intriguing. On one hand, you have a team that's top 25- or top top 30-worthy but probably somewhat inconsistent, going against a pretty good team that has faced the rigors of conference play and possibly a tourney and come out on top in one or both. As you move into the other pods, even the 4-13, you see the quality of both teams start to separate. You see the closest quality in the 5-12 pod always and as such, the most first (second) round upsets.

That said, I agree. Do not want!

[chief78]

It's been said before, but I will reiterate: FSU got into the NCAA Tourny with a 6-10 conference record in 1998. So for those of you that think a 7-11 conference record is out of the question, think again, especially with the Illini's resume.