Looks that way Minn joined WI/PU/MD at 10+ wins, NW/Mich both sitting at 9 with a game against each other, so one of NW/MI will make the 5th team at 10+ wins.
Bracketology
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Looks that way Minn joined WI/PU/MD at 10+ wins, NW/Mich both sitting at 9 with a game against each other, so one of NW/MI will make the 5th team at 10+ wins.
Based on running that simulator that Dan posted, and with the results that happened today, and with projecting Illinois to win the remainder of their conference games, that would put Illinois at a 7 seed facing IU in the second round of the BTT.
We get to a 6 seed in that scenario if Michigan loses to Northwestern and Nebraska along with Iowa losing at least 1 of their remaining two games.
Though honestly our best case scenario for getting in the NCAAs is getting the 8 or 9 seed in the B1G Tournament, winning that game, and then beating Purdue in the quarterfinals. That would be the quality win that the Illini sorely need for their resume. They could still lose one of these final 3 and still get in based on that quality win.
The alternative is to get the 7 seed, beat the 10 seed, and then beat the 2 and 3 seeds in back to back games to get a couple quality wins. Maryland and Wisky would be a good combo to get.
The alternative is to get the 7 seed, beat the 10 seed, and then beat the 2 and 3 seeds in back to back games to get a couple quality wins. Maryland and Wisky would be a good combo to get.
A 3% chance doesn't seem too good, or are you reading this differently?
So that is now 8 top 100 wins and no losses outside the top 100.
IlliniRunIn07
- Tampa, FL
I could be interpreting it wrong, but prior to yesterday any talk of the tournament was laughable in my mind. I hate to admit it, but I had given up on the season completely, and was more interested to see how the coaching search went. 3% is better than the 0.01% I assumed. Also, of the teams ahead of us, 13 are projected to be automatic bids on this site, leaving 19 automatic bids to those ranked behind us. That would put us as the 69th team, or literally the first team out. Obviously we won't know the automatic bids for a couple weeks, but I would still say Champaign is extremely bubbly right now. Just like any year, teams that steal bids will hurt the bubble teams. Also, that percentage is based on if that team would have gotten a bid in past years with the same resume. I can't speak to whether or not it would be easier to get a bid this year with a worse resume than past years, but maybe that helps our case even further? Someone else can probably confirm or dispute that.
All that being said, it's just one projected site, and it's probably the most favorable projection I've seen for us, and it still has us missing the tournament. I don't want to get too optimistic, but I'm back on the bandwagon. Maybe S&C's nightmare scenario comes true with the first four in game, but I will never root against us to miss the tournament. Since I have a newfound hope for this team, I'm sure they will lay an egg tonight and this entire conversation will be pointless. But hey, all our remaining games are winnable. We ain't out of it yet.
IlliniRunIn07
- Tampa, FL
Man, I would absolutely love to have a better RPI than Northwestern during the best season in their school history, and a season where most of us are looking ahead to who our next coach might be.
My impression is that a whole lot of bubble teams have already popped. We are not moving up the list so much as others have moved down.
If we win out the regular season, I think we are into serious bubble land. Win Thursday, look like we belong on the same court with whoever we play on Friday (could Minnesota be the 3rd seed?), and that just might be enough for us to sneak in. A six game winning streak has to have some intangible value to the selection committee.
Now if we can just make it through tonight.
If we win out the regular season, I think we are into serious bubble land. Win Thursday, look like we belong on the same court with whoever we play on Friday (could Minnesota be the 3rd seed?), and that just might be enough for us to sneak in. A six game winning streak has to have some intangible value to the selection committee.
Now if we can just make it through tonight.
No, I think the sixth seed is still our best scenario. If we win out, and Iowa does not win out, and MSU loses out, and EITHER Michigan or NW loses out, we get the sixth seed. Win our first game, and we get either Maryland or Minnesota. Maryland is currently on a three game losing streak, and Minnesota has to lose again someday. Beat either one, and I think we are definitely in. Winning out and simply reaching the Friday game could be good enough, given the way other bubbles have been bursting lately.
The downside of going against MD is that they should have a significant home crowd advantage.
True, and if we were able to give a team like Purdue a run, we'd likely win the neutral crowd over to our side. But I cannot see us beating Purdue under any circumstances, so I'd rather risk having MD fans buying up all the scalper tix.
Deleted member 16068
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I am believer if we go 9-9 in BIG, we make the dance. Our resume is ridiculously good if that happens. Now can that happen, we'll it starts tonight. JG has a 3 game season to save his job.
Foggy Notion
- San Francisco
Dan
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Current Last Four IN: California, Vanderbilt, Illinois St., Seton Hall. First Four OUT: G' Tech, Illinois, Rhode, K-State. #BracketBigBoard
Why is Illinois climbing the bubble? Illini sport top-10 SOS and four RPI top-50 wins. Plus, K-State, TCU tanking. Door swung wide open.
Current Last Four IN: California, Vanderbilt, Illinois St., Seton Hall. First Four OUT: G' Tech, Illinois, Rhode, K-State. #BracketBigBoard
Why is Illinois climbing the bubble? Illini sport top-10 SOS and four RPI top-50 wins. Plus, K-State, TCU tanking. Door swung wide open.
there is a path up the ladder
long time hourly lurker (lost my user id password after my first posts). posters have been confused on brackets and 0.9% and 3% ... pretty sure that is IF the brackets were announced 'at that point in time'. They are not projecting the brackets or trying to determine what has to happen for Team XYZ to make it. Thus when we conjecture, IF they win out ... the % is much higher given that assumption, and we are in much better shape then people think, as other bubble teams will lose. of course we have to win out and win 1 in BTT. The key upcoming games are: Houston lose to Memphis; Marquette needs to lose to X and Creighton; Syr lose to GTech; Seton Hall lose to GTown and Butler - these are to create INs. Rhode Island beating VCU was a killer but overall it has been a great Sat-Sun for us re: other bubbles. If we win next 3 we will be in front of all the bubble teams currently on the outside except for maybe Rhode Island/TCU/KState (TCU plays KState in their next game. btw - posting is due to excitement from buying 4-pack - will be first time in SFC in 26 years (had season tickets 84-91) - 5 hour drive. Did go to BTT 1999-2008. Go Illini!
long time hourly lurker (lost my user id password after my first posts). posters have been confused on brackets and 0.9% and 3% ... pretty sure that is IF the brackets were announced 'at that point in time'. They are not projecting the brackets or trying to determine what has to happen for Team XYZ to make it. Thus when we conjecture, IF they win out ... the % is much higher given that assumption, and we are in much better shape then people think, as other bubble teams will lose. of course we have to win out and win 1 in BTT. The key upcoming games are: Houston lose to Memphis; Marquette needs to lose to X and Creighton; Syr lose to GTech; Seton Hall lose to GTown and Butler - these are to create INs. Rhode Island beating VCU was a killer but overall it has been a great Sat-Sun for us re: other bubbles. If we win next 3 we will be in front of all the bubble teams currently on the outside except for maybe Rhode Island/TCU/KState (TCU plays KState in their next game. btw - posting is due to excitement from buying 4-pack - will be first time in SFC in 26 years (had season tickets 84-91) - 5 hour drive. Did go to BTT 1999-2008. Go Illini!
On the BTT bracket front, MSU's win over Wisconsin means there will be at least six teams with ten wins. There are five such teams now, and NW v Michigan will produce a sixth. The loser of that game and Iowa also have shots at ten wins. The best we can do right now is a seventh seed if we win out. A win on Thursday in the BTT currently implies Wisconsin on Friday. Ugh.
Jkat00
- Champaign, IL
Worse than Maryland?
Cheez
- Sun Prairie WI
With Michigan State's win today, Illinois can not get better than the 7 seed.
Best case scenario for Illinois (in terms of conference record: 9-9.
Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State all have 10 wins already, guaranteeing that they will all be higher than Illinois. Northwestern and Michigan both sit at 9 conference wins and have a game against each other. Since one of them will get their 10th win, the winner there will also be seeded higher than Illinois.
Illinois could still theorhetically be as low as the 13 seed as well.
My predictions:
1. If Illinois wins out, Illinois gets the 7 seed and takes on Ohio State, with the winner getting Wisconsin.
2. If Illinois wins one out of two, Illinois gets the 9 seed and takes on Iowa, with the winner getting Purdue.
3. If Illinois loses out, Illinois gets the 10 seed and takes on Northwestern, with the winner getting Wisconsin.
I think Illinois loses to MSU and beats Rutgers, so I'm looking at working from home on the 9th (and maybe 10th) for the early tips in option 2.
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