Bracketology

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#376      

Bleed O and B

B
Bleed O and B
FiveStar said:
Really wouldn't want a seed that puts us into a matchup with Purdue because we'd probably get smoked. We're only maybe possibly getting to the point where we could sneak in. Getting smashed by Purdue doesn't help that.
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I agree. While playing Purdue or Wisconsin gives us a chance for a premier win I really don't like our chances against either at all I'd much prefer getting another shot at Maryland.
The 8/9 seeds will run into #1 seed (Purdue?) and the 7/10 seed will run into the nbr 2 seed(Wisc?) on Friday. It would be nice to get all the way to the 6th seed. That means catching MSU and ScUM in the standings....not that likely.

In past years there used to be a nice chart of probability of each team by seed.
Any idea where to find that?
 
#377      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
I just made a BTT scenario with the simulator that gets us a 5 seed...we would play winner of Ohio St/Indiana and then go on to play Minnesota. I think that might be the easiest path to getting in the tournament. That would give us another top 100 win and a top 40 win. That would surely get us in right?

The simulator is pretty fun to mess with, I will make many more scenarios and maybe post them here if we beat Nebraska. Nothing better than danielb's seed probability chart but it looks like he is busy.
 
#378      

whovous

W
Washington, DC
whovous
jrichisamazing said:
I just made a BTT scenario with the simulator that gets us a 5 seed...we would play winner of Ohio St/Indiana and then go on to play Minnesota. I think that might be the easiest path to getting in the tournament. That would give us another top 100 win and a top 40 win. That would surely get us in right?

The simulator is pretty fun to mess with, I will make many more scenarios and maybe post them here if we beat Nebraska. Nothing better than danielb's seed probability chart but it looks like he is busy.
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The simulator is way fun to mess with. If we win out, a six or seven seed seems most likely. While I agree we do not want a four seed, a six way tie at 9-9 with Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa gets us there. It require Minnesota and Northwestern to finish a combined 0-6, an outcome that strikes me as far less likely than Illinois finishing 3-0. Minnesota has achieved the rare feat of a five game losing and six game winning streak in the same Big Ten season, so who knows what else they might do? And I suppose Northwestern can always revert to being Northwestern. The kid with mono does not seem to be recovering nicely.
 
#379      

Calvin

C
Calvin
Bleed O and B said:
I agree. While playing Purdue or Wisconsin gives us a chance for a premier win I really don't like our chances against either at all I'd much prefer getting another shot at Maryland.
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+1

Those are real teams. We're just Pinocchio.
 
#380      

Chipatsj23h

Chipatsj23h
Chipatsj23h
If Illini win out regular season they would have 5 wins over teams in the tournament as of right now. Sitting 19-12 with a great SOS. If that happens and they win 2 games in BTT, I think they would be in. 21-13, and most likely an additional win over a team in the tournament. Hanging on for hope, gives something to root for, starts again Sunday!
 
#381      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
Chipatsj23h said:
If Illini win out regular season they would have 5 wins over teams in the tournament as of right now. Sitting 19-12 with a great SOS. If that happens and they win 2 games in BTT, I think they would be in. 21-13, and most likely an additional win over a team in the tournament. Hanging on for hope, gives something to root for, starts again Sunday!
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Reduce the win tally by 1. McKendree doesn't count toward NCAA consideration.
 
#383      

FiveStar

F
FiveStar

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#384      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
whovous said:
The simulator is way fun to mess with. If we win out, a six or seven seed seems most likely. While I agree we do not want a four seed, a six way tie at 9-9 with Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa gets us there. It require Minnesota and Northwestern to finish a combined 0-6, an outcome that strikes me as far less likely than Illinois finishing 3-0. Minnesota has achieved the rare feat of a five game losing and six game winning streak in the same Big Ten season, so who knows what else they might do? And I suppose Northwestern can always revert to being Northwestern. The kid with mono does not seem to be recovering nicely.
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NW could well finish 0-3 with their schedule. Minnesota not so likely. Their win against Maryland makes 6 straight for them, and they have PSU and Nebraska at home yet, then Wisky on the road. Just don't see them going 0-3.
 
#385      

molinefan

molinefan
molinefan
I think our best scenario is for Michigan & Michigan St. to go 0-3 and for us to win out putting us tied with Michigan St. for 6th. Michigan plays Purdue at home, then Northwestern and Nebraska on the road. Michigan St. plays Wisconsin at home and then us and Maryland on the road. If that happened, assuming Iowa & Penn St. each lose at least one game I think we would go into the big ten tournament with a good shot at making the NCAA based on a tie for 6th and the overall records of all the big ten teams in the mix.
 
#386      

whovous

W
Washington, DC
whovous
Agreed there is a much better chance of Michigan and MSU going 0-6 to end the year than of Minnesota and Northwestern doing so. We can even give Michigan another win and still get the sixth seed in a 3-way tiebreak.

I still see three problems: 1) We still have to win out for this to matter - 8-1 odds assuming all three games are 50-50. 2) We may still have to win two games in the BTT to make the dance (though the bubble is unnaturally weak this year). 3) While I like our chances against MD better than PU or WI, the game is in DC and College Park is a mere nine stops away on the Green or Yellow line, making it a near home game for the Terps.
 
#388      

IntenselyOrange

I
IntenselyOrange
molinefan said:
I think our best scenario is for Michigan & Michigan St. to go 0-3 and for us to win out putting us tied with Michigan St. for 6th. Michigan plays Purdue at home, then Northwestern and Nebraska on the road. Michigan St. plays Wisconsin at home and then us and Maryland on the road. If that happened, assuming Iowa & Penn St. each lose at least one game I think we would go into the big ten tournament with a good shot at making the NCAA based on a tie for 6th and the overall records of all the big ten teams in the mix.
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As long as we're discussing hypotheticals, if MSU loses out, they may not remain in the rpi top 50 (currently 46) and thus reduce the impact of that win. When splitting hairs on the bubble, wins against the rpi top 50 is important.
 
#390      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
#391      

IlliniInTexas

I
IlliniInTexas
OrangeAndBlues said:
Just to put a pin in some of this hype balloon: we are still not even in the conversation.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch/_/id/198
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Having been on the bubble for so many years now, I've read almost every single edition of this bubble watch going back to 2013. It matters A LOT where you started when they first started publishing. They're really loathe to add teams on to the bubble or take teams off. With teams like us who work our way into the conversation from a terrible conference start, they just won't start including until we force their hand. We mention that we were pretty dang close to the tourney in 2014, but the bubble watch didn't include us until the last couple of editions. This year, we're pretty even with teams like Georgia Tech, TCU, and Tenneessee, except they started hotter than we did. We're not on the bubble, but we're in the conversation, and that's what we deserve until we win out.

Also, it's funny that they forgot that we were a 7 seed in 2013 with an 8-10 conference record.
 
#392      

KrushCow31

KrushCow31
Former Krush Cow
Chicago, IL
KrushCow31
Currently the only time we are even mentioned in CBS' bracketology is as a "bad loss" for VCU's resume. So there's that.
 
#393      

illiniknight

I
illiniknight
KrushCow31 said:
Currently the only time we are even mentioned in CBS' bracketology is as a "bad loss" for VCU's resume. So there's that.
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Which in itself is hilarious. We have never been close to being a "bad loss" (rating of 100+) in any ratings system. Right now we are hovering in the 50's or 60's in the ratings depending on the ratings system.
 
#394      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
KrushCow31 said:
Currently the only time we are even mentioned in CBS' bracketology is as a "bad loss" for VCU's resume. So there's that.
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It's mentioned as being bad because of the margin, which anyone who watched the game knows is a bit misleading as it was pretty close until the final 5 min. And that's a bit hypocritical since RPI doesn't take into account margin of victory.
 
#395      

Bleed O and B

B
Bleed O and B
I hope we win 4 or 5 in a row and somehow get into the big dance, but........
I know no one wants to think about it...but I'll be the first one to bring it up....
How many more wins to make the NIT?????

I assume the top 7 (through Mich) will either be in the NCAA or worse case NIT.
Who are the most likely next choices for NIT
Frankly I think PSU is the next best team, beat us twice and would be a draw for NYC. based NIT. Ony 14-14 overall
IU beat us bad and has more name appeal.
OSU travels well too.
Iowa has lots of tough games left and 2 loses to us so hopefully we are ahead of them.
Neb - it would be nice to beat them head to head on Sunday to avoid any debate.

I think we need to probably win 2 of 3. Hope for the above teams to lose a few more (likely) and maybe beat one of the above teams in a B1G tournament to lock up a NIT bid.
 
#396      

Orange

Orange
Orange
Bleed O and B said:
I hope we win 4 or 5 in a row and somehow get into the big dance, but........
I know no one wants to think about it...but I'll be the first one to bring it up....
How many more wins to make the NIT?????

I assume the top 7 (through Mich) will either be in the NCAA or worse case NIT.
Who are the most likely next choices for NIT
Frankly I think PSU is the next best team, beat us twice and would be a draw for NYC. based NIT. Ony 14-14 overall
IU beat us bad and has more name appeal.
OSU travels well too.
Iowa has lots of tough games left and 2 loses to us so hopefully we are ahead of them.
Neb - it would be nice to beat them head to head on Sunday to avoid any debate.

I think we need to probably win 2 of 3. Hope for the above teams to lose a few more (likely) and maybe beat one of the above teams in a B1G tournament to lock up a NIT bid.
Click to expand...

stop this immediately
 
#397      

Bleed O and B

B
Bleed O and B
Orange said:
stop this immediately
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OK I'll stop for now, and wait for the NIT thread to open up. But this board/thread is just filled will way too much orange kool aide. As I said, I hope we win 5 in a row and make the dance!!!!!!!!!

I know an NIT bid is not the goal. But a run in the NIT (which might be possible) is probably better than a first round loss in the NCAA. It would give next years starters (TJL, JCL, LB, KN, MF) valuable experience, it might wash the bad taste of the last NIT tournament out of my mouth and the memory of the seniors, and like it or not...its improvement over last year.

I was pointing out that it seems we need to finish well just to make the NIT.
Seems like a more realistic scenario to talk about.

GO ILLINI beat Nebby
 
#399      

Cheez

Cheez
Sun Prairie WI
Cheez
I'd rather decline the NIT bid with this team.
 
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