Illini Basketball 2016-2017

[CAHALL15]

IIRC, Groce has stated in the past that he like to go up to 10 deep and play a faster pace. This probably was not possible last year, with all the injuries, but it did allow the freshmen to gain some valuable experience last year.

I could see each of the starters averaging no more than 25 minutes this year, with the exception of Hill and possibly JCL, our two biggest offensive threats.

This is how I see the minutes shaking out:

C - Thorne (25), Morgan (15)
PF - Black (20), Finke (15), Morgan (5)
SF - HIll (25), Nichols (10), DJW (5)
SG - JCL (25), Jordan (10), Nichols (5)
PG - Abrams (20), TJL (15), Tate (5)

So, basically, if Groce goes with a 10 man rotation, I could see Tate and DJW getting the short end of the minutes. However, Groce could always mix and match, based on matchups as well.

Overall, barring a rash of injuries, this is a deep team and even if there is an injury or two, they should be able to handle it.

I like this, but to start the year, I would bet Tate gets 15 and Lucas gets 5. Remember, Lucas is still dealing with an injury and being a freshman, he could struggle with the change of pace against opposing defenses.

Also, while I am still in awe of Mav's improvement, I think Thorne is the better rebounder as is Black vs Finke so I say those two guys start. As others said, there is no reason to redshirt Tate. If DJW finds himself the odd man out, then you could make the case for him.

 

[Tevo]

Weight belts have their place, but I generally don't use them unless I'm moving more than 90% of my max on a core-intensive lift like squat or deadlift. Otherwise, you want the abs and spinal erectors to be as engaged as possible. If you use a belt for lower weight, you can inadvertently train your core to not fire at full capacity. Just one meathead's perspective.

I would think doing squat jumps would qualify. I could see a little loss of balance resulting in a lot of force being applied in the wrong direction. Maybe the weight isn't enough of his max to cause concern.

 

[CAHALL15]

I would think doing squat jumps would qualify. I could see a little loss of balance resulting in a lot of force being applied in the wrong direction. Maybe the weight isn't enough of his max to cause concern.

He last squatted 440 so it's just north of 50% of his max.

 

[IlliniBrave75]

Mike Thorne Jr.: 'Excited to show people how good we're going to be'

Shock waves were sent through Thorne's body with a passionate burst of excitement and a liberating feeling of relief.

"It was truly one of the happiest days of my life. It was like a birthday present," Thorne said. "My dad started jumping up and down. And I was just excited to be back with this great family and the staff and be back with my teammates and do something special."

http://www.scout.com/college/illinois/story/1687601-mike-thorne-making-strides-toward-big-season

 

[t7nich]

DJ should see plenty of minutes early on with Black being out the first few games, and Kipper likely not available until mid-December-ish. He will get minutes at both the 3 and 4 behind Hill and Finke. 15-20 minutes isn't unreasonable. He could play himself into that "6th man" role if he can score consistently. His energy and rebounding will be there.

 

[IllinoisFan733]

I like this, but to start the year, I would bet Tate gets 15 and Lucas gets 5. Remember, Lucas is still dealing with an injury and being a freshman, he could struggle with the change of pace against opposing defenses.

Also, while I am still in awe of Mav's improvement, I think Thorne is the better rebounder as is Black vs Finke so I say those two guys start. As others said, there is no reason to redshirt Tate. If DJW finds himself the odd man out, then you could make the case for him.

I could see the team running 9-10 deep if we play a fast-paced style. Wear out the other team for the second half. If the freshman progress, all 11 off these guys should vie for playing time.

Also, I don't' see Malcolm getting over 30 minutes a game... he wore down as the season progressed due to heavy playing time. With the depth we have, let the guys play all-out.

TA
JT --> TJL eventually
JCL
AJ
MH
DJW
KN (Nichols)
MF
LB
MF
MM

These are GREAT problems to have!!!

 

[bobbob]

If Lucas is getting 10+ minutes a game, we are in for a long year.

The more clock Abrams gets, the better we are. First, he is our best PG. Second, that means he is healthy and productive.

And there is not reason Hill should be under 30.

 

[IAmChrisFarley]

If Lucas is getting 10+ minutes a game, we are in for a long year.

The more clock Abrams gets, the better we are. First, he is our best PG. Second, that means he is healthy and productive.

And there is not reason Hill should be under 30.

Lucas will be playing 10-15 mpg. Abrams hasn't played in 2 years; so why should we expect 30+ from him? That's not fair to him, and you're short changing TJL.


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[whovous]

And there is not reason Hill should be under 30.

IllinoisFan733 just explained it. If we want Hill fresh at the ends of games and at the end of the season, we want him under 30 minutes her game. Save the 40+ minute effort for the OT game that gets us to the second week of the Big Dance.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Also, I don't' see Malcolm getting over 30 minutes a game... he wore down as the season progressed due to heavy playing time. With the depth we have, let the guys play all-out.

We don't have anyone nearly as good as MH to replace him with. He'll be well over 30/game, Groce knows he needs to win big this year.

 

[JoeyJoeJoe]

I think they'll settle in on a 9-man rotation with 8 of the sports basically set with Abrams, JCL, Hill, Black, Thorne, TJL, Finke, and Morgan. Kipper, DJW, and AJ will be fighting it out for that 9th spot. Kipper will be at a huge disadvantage there if he isn't able to play in the first semester.

 

[Combo]

Lucas will be playing 10-15 mpg. Abrams hasn't played in 2 years; so why should we expect 30+ from him? That's not fair to him, and you're short changing TJL.


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Agreed. PG could be a huge problem for us (though it can't be as bad as last year).

 

[Illwinsagain]

I think they'll settle in on a 9-man rotation with 8 of the sports basically set with Abrams, JCL, Hill, Black, Thorne, TJL, Finke, and Morgan. Kipper, DJW, and AJ will be fighting it out for that 9th spot. Kipper will be at a huge disadvantage there if he isn't able to play in the first semester.

Your 9 includes only 1 point guard, unless you think Hill/JCL are going to cover it for 10-15 minutes a game. I would prefer we see an actual PG cover the minutes Abrams is not playing. Unless production is a big drop-off.

 

[FeelYourPaign]

IIRC, Groce has stated in the past that he like to go up to 10 deep and play a faster pace. This probably was not possible last year, with all the injuries, but it did allow the freshmen to gain some valuable experience last year.

I could see each of the starters averaging no more than 25 minutes this year, with the exception of Hill and possibly JCL, our two biggest offensive threats.

This is how I see the minutes shaking out:

C - Thorne (25), Morgan (15)
PF - Black (20), Finke (15), Morgan (5)
SF - HIll (25), Nichols (10), DJW (5)
SG - JCL (25), Jordan (10), Nichols (5)
PG - Abrams (20), TJL (15), Tate (5)

So, basically, if Groce goes with a 10 man rotation, I could see Tate and DJW getting the short end of the minutes. However, Groce could always mix and match, based on matchups as well.

Overall, barring a rash of injuries, this is a deep team and even if there is an injury or two, they should be able to handle it.

I would generally agree with this, just tweak the numbers a bit.
Think Thorne / Morgan split more like 22 / 18
Similar with Black / Finke, except that its 20/20
At SF, I see Hill at 28-30, DJ at 8-10, Nichols with the balance
I like your SG allocation as is.
I'll guess that Abrams gets 25, TJL and Tate are 10/5. Tate . . . without a miracle transformation over the summer . . . just doesn't stress the opponent's D.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

IllinoisFan733 just explained it. If we want Hill fresh at the ends of games and at the end of the season, we want him under 30 minutes her game. Save the 40+ minute effort for the OT game that gets us to the second week of the Big Dance.

MH will be fresher because he will be playing the 3 vs the 4, have to do less battling in the post vs bigger guys and also less heavy lifting on offense.

 

[IlliniFever1218]

Your 9 includes only 1 point guard, unless you think Hill/JCL are going to cover it for 10-15 minutes a game. I would prefer we see an actual PG cover the minutes Abrams is not playing. Unless production is a big drop-off.

I definitely see two point guards in that list.

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[CAHALL15]

We don't have anyone nearly as good as MH to replace him with. He'll be well over 30/game, Groce knows he needs to win big this year.

I'd argue that we will win more games if Hill plays less. If Hill plays less than 30, this means we are winning and can have the backups play more and in the process, as others said, keep Malcolm fresh for crucial games. I'm hoping Hill plays a max of 30. If we see Hill playing 35 per game, I doubt there's a Big Dance and maybe not even an NIT.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

I'd argue that we will win more games if Hill plays less. If Hill plays less than 30, this means we are winning and can have the backups play more and in the process, as others said, keep Malcolm fresh for crucial games. I'm hoping Hill plays a max of 30. If we see Hill playing 35 per game, I doubt there's a Big Dance and maybe not even an NIT.

If it works out that way, great. But to head into the season with that as a plan is a terrible idea. Play your best guys. They'll have chances to "rest" vs the early season low majors (he wasn't able to last year) and a couple of B1G teams.

We do have some old guys on the team, but they're not THAT old. Averaging another 5 mpg isn't going to overly tax them.

 

[IllinoisFan733]

We do have some old guys on the team, but they're not THAT old. Averaging another 5 mpg isn't going to overly tax them.

I don't think Malcolm is going to be playing 35 minutes against some of the early cupcakes. If it's a blowout, then maybe 25 minutes? That means he would need to play near 40 minutes/game to get the average up to 35 for the year.

Against the elite teams like MSU, maybe you play MH and JCL a few more minutes. But I hope that a combination of AJ, DJW, or KN will be able to play 5 minutes each half. That puts him at 30 min/game, and hopefully he can go all out during those 30 minutes (along with everybody else.)

 

[Joel Goodson]

And there is not reason Hill should be under 30.

Blowouts. Remember when? Hopefully, they'll start being a regular occurrence again.

 

[KnoxIllini2]

I keep seeing people mention Kipper being out the first semester, has it been confirmed or are we just assuming because we're dealing with the NCAA?

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

I don't think Malcolm is going to be playing 35 minutes against some of the early cupcakes. If it's a blowout, then maybe 25 minutes? That means he would need to play near 40 minutes/game to get the average up to 35 for the year.

Against the elite teams like MSU, maybe you play MH and JCL a few more minutes. But I hope that a combination of AJ, DJW, or KN will be able to play 5 minutes each half. That puts him at 30 min/game, and hopefully he can go all out during those 30 minutes (along with everybody else.)

I don't think he will average 35 per game, he'll be somewhere between 30 and 35. My initial comment here was regarding the suggestion he'd average 25. Look at his JR season - played around 25/game in the non-conf and then over 30 in just about every B1G game, frequently over 35. Ended up averaging slightly over 30/game on the season.

Blowouts. Remember when? Hopefully, they'll start being a regular occurrence again.

There should be some in the early part of the season, sure. Beyond that, probably not too many.

 

[CAHALL15]

If it works out that way, great. But to head into the season with that as a plan is a terrible idea. Play your best guys. They'll have chances to "rest" vs the early season low majors (he wasn't able to last year) and a couple of B1G teams.

We do have some old guys on the team, but they're not THAT old. Averaging another 5 mpg isn't going to overly tax them.

I understand that these are all young, college athletes, but if Hill averages 35 per game versus say 30 which is what Egwu played his last two years (it seemed like he was always on the court), Hill will play in say a 32 game season (hopefully, more), an extra 160 minutes. That's 160 minutes of jumping, running, and battling against other college athletes. That adds up at the end. It's not like playing an extra 5 minutes in your local YMCA rec league.

Yes, play your best players and play to win, but in an ideal season, you'd hope we are winning well enough to give our key pieces some extra rest time to keep them fresh and prevent injury.

 

[Joel Goodson]

I keep seeing people mention Kipper being out the first semester, has it been confirmed or are we just assuming because we're dealing with the NCAA?

By the letter of the rules, he's sitting til late Dec. He's appealing, but the NCAA hasn't made it's ruling yet. He's got a decent shot, IMO.

 

[TCTORNADO]

By the letter of the rules, he's sitting til late Dec. He's appealing, but the NCAA hasn't made it's ruling yet. He's got a decent shot, IMO.

If nothing changes, KN will be eligible December 11th, the first day after the end of first semester. He probably would get one or two non conference games and Border Wars game, depending on the schedule. Plus all the B1G games of course.