Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

#87
Cincinnati, OH
Since it has been discussed on here as of recently, and for those willing to take a deep dive into the research, here is a good article that breaks down the important decision-maker factors for football recruits.

A Discrete-Choice Model of a College Football Recruit’s Program Selection Decision



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Location isn't as important as the factors mentioned above, but they are still influential. Based on the findings from the study, and depending on how much you want to dive into odds ratio: Let's use a basic example by assuming you have a recruit that is 50/50 of going to Illinois or another school, Rival A. Let's also assume you also know nothing about this recruit, except that he is from Illinois. From this study, the benefit of this recruit being from the same state increases their probability from 50% to a range of 57% (low-rated prospect) to 71% (high-rated prospect).

I do a little research that touches on these topics, but this is also outside of my wheelhouse, so if there are any economists that want to add/alter my comments, feel free.
 
#88
Since it has been discussed on here as of recently, and for those willing to take a deep dive into the research, here is a good article that breaks down the important decision-maker factors for football recruits.

A Discrete-Choice Model of a College Football Recruit’s Program Selection Decision



View attachment 5400


Location isn't as important as the factors mentioned above, but they are still influential. Based on the findings from the study, and depending on how much you want to dive into odds ratio: Let's use a basic example by assuming you have a recruit that is 50/50 of going to Illinois or another school, Rival A. Let's also assume you also know nothing about this recruit, except that he is from Illinois. From this study, the benefit of this recruit being from the same state increases their probability from 50% to a range of 57% (low-rated prospect) to 71% (high-rated prospect).

I do a little research that touches on these topics, but this is also outside of my wheelhouse, so if there are any economists that want to add/alter my comments, feel free.
This still isn’t what should be analyzed but it’s an interesting study nonetheless than lines up similarly with my numbers. 71% signing probability for a “higher rated recruit” (Whatever they classify that to be) is actually higher than mine, which is essentially 69% (6.9 of every 10 4* rated kids WILL sign with an in-state or direct border state university).

This validates how important our resource allocation truly is.
 
#89
Cincinnati, OH
This still isn’t what should be analyzed but it’s an interesting study nonetheless than lines up similarly with my numbers. 71% signing probability for a “higher rated recruit” (Whatever they classify that to be) is actually higher than mine, which is essentially 69% (6.9 of every 10 4* rated kids WILL sign with an in-state or direct border state university).

This validates how important our resource allocation truly is.

I would caution comparing the example to your findings, as that comparison is more of "apples-to-oranges". The example I provided was just to showcase the probability improvement, as a recruit that is 50/50 in a vacuum is tough to replicate in reality. Both situations could be true, that recruits are 7%-21% more likely to sign with an in-state school and 7/10 recruits with sign with an in-state or border state school. This isn't meant to shoot down anyone's thoughts, just thought it would be helpful to provide a robust study that can shed light on factors that can substantially improve a recruit committing to a school like Illinois.

They don't mention an in-state or border state correlation, which could be an interesting variable. Another one that I would be interested in (that they don't measure) is recruiting area priorities. For example, Illinois has prioritized the DFW area, how much more likely is Illinois to get a signed LOI from a recruit in that area? That makes things a little complicated compared to this study because it's an inverted look (school perspective) than this study (recruit perspective), plus it get's messy on measuring the location (example: how do you define the borders of DFW from a recruiting perspective (not an urban planning perspective)?) and if a school's approach is more of a handful of specific high schools (Duncanville? DeSoto? Others?).

There are always interesting questions as it relates to recruiting, but often difficult parameters to create an accurate measurement.
 
#90
I would caution comparing the example to your findings, as that comparison is more of "apples-to-oranges". The example I provided was just to showcase the probability improvement, as a recruit that is 50/50 in a vacuum is tough to replicate in reality. Both situations could be true, that recruits are 7%-21% more likely to sign with an in-state school and 7/10 recruits with sign with an in-state or border state school. This isn't meant to shoot down anyone's thoughts, just thought it would be helpful to provide a robust study that can shed light on factors that can substantially improve a recruit committing to a school like Illinois.
No, that’s a good point which is why I stated in the opening that I don’t think this study analyzed what we need to prioritize in terms of strategy. Our school and those schools like us can’t simply prioritize in-state recruiting as the talent base is not large enough in the quantity of higher end quality kids to sustain us/them. We need to analyze border states which this study doesn’t address (More than fine).

Regardless, even at face value, a potential 21% odds increase is drastic for a program such as ours.
 
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#93
Cincinnati, OH
there is an entire field of science dedicated to sports management. There is no shortage of studies on the topic

Hear! Hear! And for those wanting to take a deep dive into this area, your best bet for journals talking about recruiting are Journal of Sport Economics, Journal of Sport Analytics, and Journal of Issues in Intercollegiate Athletics (in no order).
 
Cincinnati, OH
Goals for me in this class are to have a recruiting class that has a 247 composite ranking around 7th-8th of the B1G. As in not total points, which will be substantially higher for the 2021 class based on quantity but that the average quality of recruit falls within the middle of the pack. For example, here is the history of the 247 AVG:

2020: 11th
2019: 8th
2018: 14th
2017: t-10th
 
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