We apparently made some sort of short list for Blackshire but he’s probably not happening. Be interested to see what kind of year he has.
Sign me up for these twoI invoke a vow of silence.
Since it has been discussed on here as of recently, and for those willing to take a deep dive into the research, here is a good article that breaks down the important decision-maker factors for football recruits.
A Discrete-Choice Model of a College Football Recruit’s Program Selection Decision
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Location isn't as important as the factors mentioned above, but they are still influential. Based on the findings from the study, and depending on how much you want to dive into odds ratio: Let's use a basic example by assuming you have a recruit that is 50/50 of going to Illinois or another school, Rival A. Let's also assume you also know nothing about this recruit, except that he is from Illinois. From this study, the benefit of this recruit being from the same state increases their probability from 50% to a range of 57% (low-rated prospect) to 71% (high-rated prospect).
I do a little research that touches on these topics, but this is also outside of my wheelhouse, so if there are any economists that want to add/alter my comments, feel free.
This still isn’t what should be analyzed but it’s an interesting study nonetheless than lines up similarly with my numbers. 71% signing probability for a “higher rated recruit” (Whatever they classify that to be) is actually higher than mine, which is essentially 69% (6.9 of every 10 4* rated kids WILL sign with an in-state or direct border state university).
This validates how important our resource allocation truly is.
I would caution comparing the example to your findings, as that comparison is more of "apples-to-oranges". The example I provided was just to showcase the probability improvement, as a recruit that is 50/50 in a vacuum is tough to replicate in reality. Both situations could be true, that recruits are 7%-21% more likely to sign with an in-state school and 7/10 recruits with sign with an in-state or border state school. This isn't meant to shoot down anyone's thoughts, just thought it would be helpful to provide a robust study that can shed light on factors that can substantially improve a recruit committing to a school like Illinois.
there is an entire field of science dedicated to sports management. There is no shortage of studies on the topic
Oh yea... these two are ballers.