Pregame: Illinois at Minnesota, Saturday, October 5th, 2:30pm CT, BTN

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Purdue did lose its starting QB and top offensive player on same play in 1st quarter. Not saying Illini D played great or didn’t play a role in loss, but those losses definitely impacted Purdue’s offensive stats.
I wouldn't argue that. It was on their third drive in which they went down and scored a TD. And it didn't stop them from running 40+ plays in the first half.
 
The split between SP+ and FEI ratings for us is pretty interesting.

They both like Minny, 33rd in SP+ and 36th in FEI. But we are 56th in SP+ and 89th in FEI.

The two big things that stand out as different are the offense rankings, SP+ has us 34th in the country, FEI has us 96th. Seeing two different things there.

When it comes to our strength of schedule, there's also a big Nebraska gap. SP+ still believes, ranking them 39th, FEI has given up, at 71st.

So one saw a nip-and-tuck fight with a good team in which we scored a ton of points, the other saw us allow nearly 700 yards of total offense to one the B1G's lesser teams at home.

Which one is right? The next three weeks will tell the tale. SP+ would be projecting for us to give Minny all they can handle, and have respectable performances at home against Michigan and Wisconsin. FEI sees three blowouts.

Whichever happens, the two systems will collect that data and be closer to harmonized at the end of that stretch. So stay tuned!
 
The only way Illini win this game is by rushing the ball 50+ times.

With respect to comparing Peters to previous QBs... I concede that there are few a guys that may be worse than Peters, but I don't agree with using QBR to compare for two reasons.

1. Previous seasons' numbers include a full Big Ten slate, and the quality of the opponent has been extremely low this year so far.
2. The QBR value does not include the QBs rushing ability which has been a big component of QB play since John Beutjer.

So, sure Peters has put up some decent stats on paper, but let's look at the competition.

Note that RPI and Sagarin include both D1 and FCS schools. There are 125 D1 football teams so any number greater than 125 means those teams are worse than FCS teams.

Peter's avergage QBR
vs Akron and Uconn: 159
vs EMU and NEB: 110

We can revisit this at the end of the year, but IMO we don't beat Minnesota, or win another game this year with Peters passing. Rod Smith has a choice to make: run "his" offense, or win games.

TeamRPISagarinDef Total YPG RankDef Pass YPG Rank
Akron166186100112
Uconn1471607874
EMU649910388
Nebraska44367677
 
Likes: UCantHideYer
We can revisit at the end of the season where Peters stands historically. (Btw, Peters vs Nebraska was worse than Jeff George Jr vs Michigan in QBR)

I regret putting that line in there about Peters being the worst I've seen because its distracted from the point that the team must run more to win.
 
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Likes: Ramrod2010
I regret putting that line in there about Peters being the worst I've seen because its distracted from the point that the team must run more to win.
Yeah, I thought it was a really solid post until you dropped that comment in there.
 
Likes: ROFOIllini
St Louis
The only way Illini win this game is by rushing the ball 50+ times.


Worth a reminder that the coming into this season, the perceived strength of this team's offense was that 1) we had legit running backs in Corbin/Brown/Bonner and 2) the offensive line was now a veteran group that should produce. We should be pounding the ball the minute we get off the damn bus.
 
Western Illinois
It would be nice to IW play more than just a couple of plays in the wildcat formation where everyone on the defense knows that he is going to get the ball.
 
Likes: Illinois_2_AZ
Austin
It would be nice to IW play more than just a couple of plays in the wildcat formation where everyone on the defense knows that he is going to get the ball.
The triple option can also be run out of the shotgun...just sayin

Edit: also at 5:32

 
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Likes: Neidermeyer
Little Rock, Arkansas
I still can’t get over just how easy it would have been this year if the rebuild had worked. We thought 6 wins was an absolute max.

But with how things transpired, a good team with a competent defense and consistent offense could be 4-0 right now with a peer level Minnesota up next.

Then a ragged/under achieving Michigan, has-trouble-scoring MSU, injury riddled PU, down NW and crappy Rutgers would still be left on the docket.

Seriously, if this thing went the way we thought it would, it wouldn’t have been unheard of to win each of those games. Can you imagine if we’d put together a 10 win season?? (Still don’t think we could beat Iowa and Wisky seems way out of our league)

Oh what might have been.
 
I still can’t get over just how easy it would have been this year if the rebuild had worked. We thought 6 wins was an absolute max.

But with how things transpired, a good team with a competent defense and consistent offense could be 4-0 right now with a peer level Minnesota up next.

Then a ragged/under achieving Michigan, has-trouble-scoring MSU, injury riddled PU, down NW and crappy Rutgers would still be left on the docket.

Seriously, if this thing went the way we thought it would, it wouldn’t have been unheard of to win each of those games. Can you imagine if we’d put together a 10 win season?? (Still don’t think we could beat Iowa and Wisky seems way out of our league)

Oh what might have been.
And this is why a 5 win season is fool's gold... I know some people will be calling to retain Lovie if it happens.

An average staff would win 7 under these circumstances.

Minnesota, Rutgers, PU, NW

There are still 4 left on the schedule that could trick the average fan into thinking we have made progress.
 
Likes: Dude
In the good old QB debate, ratings aside, would you rather have the Peters we’ve seen this year or AJ Bush from last year? I think I’d take Bush, and I’m not sure I’d think about it very long before deciding. Just seemed to be a better fit and a more dynamic threat.

There is nothing about this offense that excites me, save for the occasional big run that Corbin might break. And between injuries and lack of RPO QB threat this year, I feel that odds on those plays have dropped quite a bit.
 
Austin
Man, our team looked so much bigger and athletic back then. Zook really could recruit.
It really is the first thing that jumps out at you. Those giants out on that field just move differently.
 
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