Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
I think it totally would have worked, if the staff had the ability to coach kids up. Doesn't look like that is the case
Pregame: Illinois at Minnesota, Saturday, October 5th, 2:30pm CT, BTN
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I am looking at (another) nail biter close game. Don't know if we win, but we should cover the 13 point spread. This is assuming both EMU and Nebraska would beat the Gophers.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
EMU almost certainly wouldn't, and Nebraska might very well not be favored on a neutral field. They're behind Minny in the SP+.
The Dave
- CA
Does the Big Ten have a mercy rule for football?
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
Time for a new Illinois rule.
Assumptions. Schemes. Where is the confidence in year 4?
I’m guessing 47-21.
Not telling who i think wins
Not telling who i think wins
The beauty of the college football season is that it's constantly evolving and what you think you know can often change, for better or worse. Nebraska was a bit of a B1G West darling just a month ago, ranked in the top 25 and a sleeper for a possible CFP run. 5 weekends later and that's all changed. Nebraska now has two losses, got absolutely waxed by the top team in the B1G right now, and barely escaped against the Illini. Point being, Nebraska ain't that good right now. Makes Illinois' loss to them look a little worse in my view.
Minnesota has a road win in the division now and that is worth noting at this point. They're also the "4-0" Illinois wanted to be at this point too, with ugly wins over SDSU, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They may be ugly wins, but they've gotten the job done where the Illini haven't. No other way to slice it. With this week's game up in Minneapolis, I don't see it being close for anything more than a half. Save your nails, 33-20, Gophs.
Minnesota has a road win in the division now and that is worth noting at this point. They're also the "4-0" Illinois wanted to be at this point too, with ugly wins over SDSU, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They may be ugly wins, but they've gotten the job done where the Illini haven't. No other way to slice it. With this week's game up in Minneapolis, I don't see it being close for anything more than a half. Save your nails, 33-20, Gophs.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Maybe 6 the way Northwestern looks.
But you lose this week, especially if we look outclassed, and the 6 win dream is pretty well dead. It's a huge game.
We are not getting to 6 right now i would take 3
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
If we lose to Rutgers at home Whitman should hand Lovie his pink slip on the walk back to the locker room.
Yeah, maybe. Friend and I watched the Nebraska game Saturday and he was telling me that Hunter Johnson really hasn't looked too comfortable over there, which surprised me. He's a good kid.
The Purdue injuries have really turned things upside down. I had zero confidence in us holding Rondale Moore even remotely in check.
Watch party at The Red Barn in Mount Prospect starting at 2pm this Saturday.
Dan
Admin
Rod Smith: 1-11 on third downs is inexcusable
https://twitter.com/Champaign_Room/
Game Notes
BTN: Kevin Kugler, Matt Millen & Rick Pizzo
https://fightingillini.com/news/2019/9/30/football-game-week-illinois-at-minnesota.aspx
Lovie Smith press conference quotes
https://fightingillini.com/news/2019/9/30/football-lovie-smith-press-conference-quotes.aspx
https://twitter.com/Champaign_Room/
Game Notes
BTN: Kevin Kugler, Matt Millen & Rick Pizzo
https://fightingillini.com/news/2019/9/30/football-game-week-illinois-at-minnesota.aspx
Lovie Smith press conference quotes
https://fightingillini.com/news/2019/9/30/football-lovie-smith-press-conference-quotes.aspx
Offense lost the game last week. One 3rd down conversion, 40 yards passing after the first couple drives. Etc. Defense played 100 plays, and were emptied by the 3rd quarter.
If they’re going to win another game the offense is going to need to run the ball more, and control the pace better. They’re not going to win a shootout with Peters as the QB.
copied from the postgame thread:
Looking at other BigTen box scores it seems like teams usually run 50 - 70 plays. The first 9 drives Nebraska had:
53 plays
199 yards
3.7 yards per play
14 points
2 TOs
That’s a complete game for a some big ten teams. Expanding it to the first 13 drives:
66 plays
373 yards
5.6 yards per play
21 points
4 TOs
The next 4 drives were 275 yards, 3 TDs, and a missed FG from the goal line which could’ve easily been another TD. The defense was gassed.
If they’re going to win another game the offense is going to need to run the ball more, and control the pace better. They’re not going to win a shootout with Peters as the QB.
copied from the postgame thread:
Looking at other BigTen box scores it seems like teams usually run 50 - 70 plays. The first 9 drives Nebraska had:
53 plays
199 yards
3.7 yards per play
14 points
2 TOs
That’s a complete game for a some big ten teams. Expanding it to the first 13 drives:
66 plays
373 yards
5.6 yards per play
21 points
4 TOs
The next 4 drives were 275 yards, 3 TDs, and a missed FG from the goal line which could’ve easily been another TD. The defense was gassed.
Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
100 plays is a culmination of the offense not sustaining drives and the defense not getting any stops. Both are to blame
No. You're dead wrong. How is the defense supposed to get stops when they are playing the equivalent of two games in a one game span? The defense DID get stops... that the offense promptly turned into 3-and-outs. Then, the defense would get another stop... and then another 3-and-out.
The defense played the best 53 plays we've seen them play in a long time. Imagine... just imagine... if our offense would have ran like 5+ minutes off the clock on a few of those possessions. We easily could have won this game 40+ to 14. But we effed it up. Well, Rod Smith did. I just paid to watch the $h|t show unravel.
I'd agree with you if we hadn't gotten so used to seeing the defense give up 500+ yards in the past year. While the offense's struggles certainly did not help, the lack of aggression by the defense when it comes to blitzes and confusing schemes for the offense (aka not just playing one coverage) has got me off the Lovie train and firmly in favor of yet another coaching change.
The above graph shows the B1G teams in 2016, 2017, 2018 (The orange years are Illinois' data points). Besides showing how terrible the Illini are, it definitely shows a correlation between Offensive TOP and Defensive Yards Allowed. I am NOT saying the statistics prove one causes the other. However, I think you'd have to really stretch some logic to say it isn't strongly implied.
Just food for thought.
I think this illustrates what happened in the game against Nebraska, and makes sense in practical terms. On average the defense is fresh for about 28 minutes, then a big drop off in defense, or increase in opposing offensive production due to fatigue kicking in.
No excuse to not run the ball more in this game when your top 2 backs are combined 193 yards on 26 carries for 7.4 yards per carry !!!!!!! Run it on 3rd and long, who cares, better than Peters attempting a pass.
It’s like this “team” is two separate teams doing their own thing. I can’t think of a single excuse for Rod Smith to call the game he called.
- Playing with a lead
- Top 2 RBs averaging 7.4 yards per carry in this game and over 200 yards as a team
- QB with net 64 yards on 24 drop backs (including sacks)
- Defense clearly gassed, and not deep enough to keep pace
3rd Quarter - 10 rushes, 7 pass plays (1 completion, net 13 yards including sack loss)
4th Quarter - 4 rushes, 8 pass plays (2 completions, 3 yards)
Those 3 completions on 15 drop backs in the 2nd have did no favors for our time of possession.
Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
How many 3 and outs do you think the IL defense had? 2 in the first half and one more the first drive on the second half.
I don't know where your pulling your numbers from. But this is what ESPN has
First half - Neb 46 plays 287 yards
For comparison purposes - Min vs Purdue first half - Purdue 42 plays 178 yards
You want to say the Def played its best game we have seen in a long time. I don't disagree. But that is a really low bar. Min gave up 100 less yards in four less snaps. Did the offense have a bad game? ABSOLUTELY. But to say the defense doesn't have blame in the loss is dead wrong.
Geez the spread opened at 14 and 14.5. It may go higher.
Illinisteve25
- Champaign
For some reason I feel we win this game Illini 38 Minny 28. We absolutely dominated them last year and we have more talent this year. Bye week better have helped or we have the worst coaching staff in College football (Which is possible). Corbin should be more healthy and players over all will come in and beat an over hyped Minnesota team. Also I hate Fleck so it better happen. A blow out loss would be good as well because it would give us a head start on the new coaching search...
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