What would you do vs what Whitman will do
I wanted to pick "no matter what," but even I have a hard time envisioning not giving him another year after a S16. Having said that, I can't see that happening, either.
Assuming no better than a first round loss, I imagine he will be fired. I don't think anyone can make the an argument that John Groce is somehow the answer to bring Illinois basketball back to the top and Whitman is smart enough to realize that.
Good poll. My answers matched the majority as it stands right now. I still dont think Groce is the guy to lead us to the Promised Land but maybe he's earned the right to see what he can do with the incoming class. He'll pretty much be forced to play freshmen, maybe he'll simplify some of the aspects of his game and let them play through mistakes. I admit I'm heavily influenced by recency bias here. I can't help it. I like the guy, but I want to see us win on a consistent basis. Are Groce and winning mutually exclusive? Until the last two weeks it appears that way. Have we stumbled on to the winning formula? They sure are playing different, if they played this hard all season we sure wouldn't be having these conversations.
None of us know if there's a home run hire waiting in the wings and Counzo has definitely lost a lot of his luster the last few weeks. So unless he has another Lovie-esque hire up his sleeve I think Whitman stands pat, maybe with some suggestions for staff evaluation.
None of us know if there's a home run hire waiting in the wings and Counzo has definitely lost a lot of his luster the last few weeks. So unless he has another Lovie-esque hire up his sleeve I think Whitman stands pat, maybe with some suggestions for staff evaluation.
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
I think the bar was and has always been NCAA or bust for this season. I'm sticking to that.
For the second part of the question I put Whitman will keep him because I believe we will beat Rutgers first BTT game (if it's not Purdon't) and that on it's own I believe will be enough to get us in (or at least the play-in game) by the skin of our teeth. Assuming that happens, I think Groce can thank his lucky stars for the weakness of the bubble this year.
Whether that will be a good thing or not for the long term remains to be seen. To me, this is like 2014 Beckman all over again when we were left for dead and he and the team somehow pulled a win vs. Northwestern out of their butts to get to 6 wins and a bowl game. But as we know it only delayed the inevitable (then again if the storyline holds, we fire JG next year, and somehow end up with another Lovie type hire thus mirroring football completely I think I'd be okay with that!).
For the second part of the question I put Whitman will keep him because I believe we will beat Rutgers first BTT game (if it's not Purdon't) and that on it's own I believe will be enough to get us in (or at least the play-in game) by the skin of our teeth. Assuming that happens, I think Groce can thank his lucky stars for the weakness of the bubble this year.
Whether that will be a good thing or not for the long term remains to be seen. To me, this is like 2014 Beckman all over again when we were left for dead and he and the team somehow pulled a win vs. Northwestern out of their butts to get to 6 wins and a bowl game. But as we know it only delayed the inevitable (then again if the storyline holds, we fire JG next year, and somehow end up with another Lovie type hire thus mirroring football completely I think I'd be okay with that!).
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Keep in mind that Mark Turgeon was a lame duck for Maryland when they entered the B1G, having missed 4 straight NCAA tournaments and several players transferred out of the program. Then some guy named Melo Trimble came in and blew up as a freshman and in his three years has all but saved Turgeon's job. Maybe if Groce gets kept, he will have a similar fate due to him having his PGs now. Lots of similarities between Melo and Trent Frazier: great scorer as a PG, quick, blonde highlights in their hair (I know Melo doesn't anymore)
Melo Trimble was a McDonald's All-American, they were coming off 3 missed tournaments under Turgeon (not 4), and had won 25 games in Turgeon's second year. Turgeon's overall resume is also significantly better than Groce's to allow a little more leeway.
I'm glad you started this because I have no interest in wading through 7000+ posts in the Coaching Carousel thread to see what people are saying. I can only guess that most are passionately calling for JG's head with such a high number.
I think we need to let it play out. How many people (including Whitman) would have taken making the tourney and playing to seed + this year's incoming recruiting class before the season started?
I think we need to let it play out. How many people (including Whitman) would have taken making the tourney and playing to seed + this year's incoming recruiting class before the season started?
Sal Iacuzzo
- Yonkers, NY
I don't understand the logic of boiling down Groce's retention to essentially one or two games. He's either good enough or he isn't, there is no need to take the wait and see approach when he has been here five years already. The full body of work in my opinion is not good enough for him to be retained regardless of what happens. Winning the next two games doesn't change that for me. We have given bad coaches extra seasons (Turner, Zook, Weber), it hasn't worked with any of them.
But the quality of the entire season boils down to 1 or 2 games here. If we make the tourney and win a game or two, then the Winthrop game and the Penn State sweep become irrelevant (and the Winthrop game was fun, despite the loss). If we don't make the tournament, well, that's a different story. Then the season is a bust.
It's like a basketball game...if you win by 2 points or 20 points, it's still a win.
It's interesting either way, because if Whitman keeps Groce, it's just as likely that he does so because Groce reached the tournament, which is essentially keeping him because of a weak bubble and losing one fewer games than would have got him canned. It's certainly possible that Whitman "believes" in Groce, and wouldn't make a move anyway. However, that seems far-fetched to me.
I will say that this is a really impressive turn-around. To claw back to having a chance after how bad we've played is remarkable. The eye test is night and day since the light has gone on for Lucas.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
My heart says reward John with keeping him if this team can show the heart and drastic improvement needed to be in the NCAA Tournament.
My head says that there hasn't been some magic (and more importantly permanent) corner turned, and we need to move on after this season, short of a Sweet Sixteen run (which is not out of the question if we make it!).
EDIT: As for JW, I think it's pretty simple for him: make the Tournament, and JG stays.
My head says that there hasn't been some magic (and more importantly permanent) corner turned, and we need to move on after this season, short of a Sweet Sixteen run (which is not out of the question if we make it!).
EDIT: As for JW, I think it's pretty simple for him: make the Tournament, and JG stays.
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I agree it depends
If we can finish with 2 more wins then i honestly say keep him no matter what the selection committee says
If we can finish with 2 more wins then i honestly say keep him no matter what the selection committee says
That's just not the case at all. If that was true, we'd randomly seed the NCAAT because everyone made it and play from there. Getting to the NCAAT is a check box we should complete every season, but it is not the only evaluator we have. Getting in the first four annually as a conference 8 seed and winning 1 game is a marginally successful season at best, not a success every time simply because we made the dance.
How you get there means just as much as if you get there, IMO.
Not to go at you personally, but does a Rutgers win, or simply having 20 wins, independent of the other factors of this season, really mean that much to you to be the difference? I've seen this sort of opinion in a few places and personally do not understand it.
And if you go to the MD boards a lot of them still want him fired.
Probably, based on the fact that he didn't win a national championship either two years ago or last year.
NO, I think it is due to the fact posters on message boards, without exception, are smarter than the coaches they critique.
I have been a quiet supporter of Coach Groce, but I admit that as January wore on, I was thinking a change needed to be made.
Now I am not so sure. Outside of some miracle sure-thing hire, what would we gain by making a switch? Perhaps Groce wasn't quite ready for the job when he got here. Obviously there have been some major stumbles along the way. But also they have been learning experiences that Groce has already been through.
Had the team not made this recent turn-around, I would probably still be watching the Coaching Carousel thread and pining away for some coach that we'll never get, so the recency bias is strong.
Now I am not so sure. Outside of some miracle sure-thing hire, what would we gain by making a switch? Perhaps Groce wasn't quite ready for the job when he got here. Obviously there have been some major stumbles along the way. But also they have been learning experiences that Groce has already been through.
Had the team not made this recent turn-around, I would probably still be watching the Coaching Carousel thread and pining away for some coach that we'll never get, so the recency bias is strong.
I think MD fans are a lot like ours. That 2002 title change their perception of where they "should" be. Just like us with 1989 and 2005. Once you get a taste of that level it's tough to accept being well below it.
riffraff
- Peoria
Sal Iacuzzo
- Yonkers, NY
The fact that Groce's team don't quit is one of his strongest points in his favor, but this is the third time he has had a team that dug a huge hole for themselves only to turn it around at the end of the season. I'm very concerned about his 12-28 record in January. He just seems way too slow to make adjustments.
This is the essence of why I wouldn't be utterly heartbroken to see him go and also why it's all so tragic. He could have so easily avoided all of this weeping and gnashing of teeth by:
A) Recruiting more proactively for PG and C positions.
B) Figuring out rotations and hot players sooner.
Not much could have salvaged the bad luck explosion that was last season, but for his other weak seasons, both A & B above would have made things a lot more tolerable. Maybe even would have caused them to not be weak seasons in the first place.
Sorry if I was unclear.
The quality of THIS season boils down to 1-2 games. Obviously a stronger resume is better for tourney seeding. But (at least to me), getting to the tourney this year has been the measure of whether or not this season is a good one.
I never thought we would cruise in to a 4-5 seed. I always assumed we would be on the bubble more or less all season.
In my post, I was trying to say that given that expectation, it doesn't matter that our tourney hopes were totally bleak for most of the conference season, if we rally at the end here and rattle off a string of wins good enough to get us in.
I hope we get back to conference championships and low seeds soon, but this year is a 'win' if we make the tourney in my book. I don't care how we get in.