John Groce at Illinois

[Bailey]

Correct - a few years back we could afford to have JEkey crash the boards and the provided some results. They key was NE could run the floor and get back - and had a particular knack for not rebounding.

Great call. Our lack of crashing the offensive glass isn't his steadfast opposition to fundamentals like the fuddy duddies want to believe.

 

[Epsilon]

I don't think anybody has claimed this is a method universally adopted on the college level.

I'd like to see our metrics in terms of transition defense. You'd think they'd be very good.

Funny you should ask, because that's where I goofed my original quote. We have terrible transition D.

Quote from that article:

The Illini have given up 1.22 points per transition possession — good for the 1st percentile nationally. Michigan won’t get many chances to run off of Illinois turnovers, but the Illini’s lack of aggression on the offensive glass could lead to plenty of rip-and-run fastbreaks for Michigan’s guards.

 

[84Illini]

Just curious of posters' thoughts - where do we think the team would be if Thorne, Black and TA were on the court?

Certainly better than we are now, but not great. Abrams was never one of the better point guards in the Big Ten. Thorne was a solid contributor at Charlotte, but he didn't put up amazing numbers even there. Black hasn't yet been a reliable presence, though he's had some good games. With everybody healthy, I think we're a middle-of-the-pack conference team. Of course, the middle of the pack sounds pretty good right now.

 

[Bailey]

Funny you should ask, because that's where I goofed my original quote. We have terrible transition D.

Quote from that article:

The Illini have given up 1.22 points per transition possession — good for the 1st percentile nationally.

Ouch. But...

but the Illini’s lack of aggression on the offensive glass could lead to plenty of rip-and-run fastbreaks for Michigan’s guards.

This is a contradiction. That's exactly the reason a team would abandon the offensive glass.

 

[Epsilon]

Ouch. But...



This is a contradiction. That's exactly the reason a team would abandon the offensive glass.

Yes and no. I think in this context it isn't incorrect, because we do neither particularly well, unfortunately.

 

[89illinigrad]

Certainly better than we are now, but not great. Abrams was never one of the better point guards in the Big Ten. Thorne was a solid contributor at Charlotte, but he didn't put up amazing numbers even there. Black hasn't yet been a reliable presence, though he's had some good games. With everybody healthy, I think we're a middle-of-the-pack conference team. Of course, the middle of the pack sounds pretty good right now.

The losses of Black and Thorne have hurt more that Abrams IMO. We desperately need Black and Thorne inside. Thorne was averaging 13.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg before he got hurt and Black led the team in scoring and rebounding on the European trip, so losing those two has hurt this team a lot.

So, while I agree we wouldn't be "great" I think that, if we were healthy the whole year, we would have finished in the 4th-6th range and a lock for the tourney.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

You can't use just this year as an argument for Groce not being able to teach team defense. His first three defensive teams were good or above average at least I believe. Also, don't you think losing Thorne and black has had an impact on the rebounding/blocked shots stats? (Hint: it has)

Sure it has. Where's our depth at that position? Remember that if Thorne hadn't come here as a 5th year xfer we'd still be as thin--meaning that injury can't be used as an excuse for lack of rebounds. Losing Darius is an intangible, since he never actually played so we don't really know what his contribution would have been.

It's also important to note that bigs aren't the only ones who rebound, and that's another issue I have with this team. No one consistently, aggressively goes after rebounds this year other than Hill. It's worth noting that Ray Rice had 1 fewer RB than Nnanna in the 2013-2014 season.

As far as where we've been on defense in the Groce era, the stats are pretty clear--at or below average in the conference with a couple of brighter spots here and there. Groce can't hang his hat on Defense in his time at Illinois, and it is abysmal this year, both from an effort and results perspective.


I've bolded the stats where we were in the upper third of the conference that year.

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2012-2013/confldrs.html
Scoring defense - 10th of 12
3pt FG Defense 10 of 12
Rebounding defense 10 of 12
Rebounding margin 10 of 12
Blocked shots 6 of 12
Steals 5 of 12
Defensive rebound pct 11 of 12

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2013-2014/confldrs.html
Scoring defense 2 of 12
3pt FG Defense 11 of 12
Rebounding defense 6 of 12
Rebounding margin 8 of 12
Blocked shots 9 of 12
Steals 6 of 12
Defensive rebound pct 7 of 12

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2014-2015/confldrs.html
Scoring defense 6 of 14
3pt FG Defense 7 of 14
Rebounding defense 9 of 14
Rebounding margin 8 of 14
Blocked shots 10 of 14
Steals 4 of 14
Defensive rebound pct 11 of 14

Edit--here are this year's stats so far
http://www.bigten.org/library/stats/mbb-confldrs.html
Scoring defense 14 of 14
3pt FG Defense 14 of 14
Rebounding defense 11 of 14
Rebounding margin 13 of 14
Blocked shots 14 of 14
Steals 9 of 14
Defensive rebound pct 6 of 14

 

[Deleted member 29907]

The losses of Black and Thorne have hurt more that Abrams IMO. We desperately need Black and Thorne inside. Thorne was averaging 13.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg before he got hurt and Black led the team in scoring and rebounding on the European trip, so losing those two has hurt this team a lot.

So, while I agree we wouldn't be "great" I think that, if we were healthy the whole year, we would have finished in the 4th-6th range and a lock for the tourney.

I think TA would have been a big factor - i think he would have been the heart and sole of this team and his experience and D would have made more of a difference than we think. TA and Thorne are big losses for this team and Black is strong on the boards (when not on the bench in foul trouble) and we're sorely missing that.

 

[Bomb Squad 217]

People are just playing to their own narrative if they don't think those guys would have made all the difference this season. That's silly. We would have been a far better team this year. But, because of those injuries, we have to suffer this year to reap great benefits going forward.

 

[Foggy Notion]

Sure it has. Where's our depth at that position? Remember that if Thorne hadn't come here as a 5th year xfer we'd still be as thin--meaning that injury can't be used as an excuse for lack of rebounds. Losing Darius is an intangible, since he never actually played so we don't really know what his contribution would have been.

This is so logically strained.

On the one hand, you are criticizing our lack of depth. On the other hand, you are discounting Thorne because in a different universe he might not have come here.

But Thorne did come here, and he played great until he did get injured. If he didn't come here, someone else would, and if that player was injured, it would also affect our depth.

Each team can have up to 13 scholarships per year, and having five bigs is pretty good depth in the frontcourt. If you have more than that, the other positions become thin. When three bigs are injured, even the deepest teams have depth issues.

You discount Darius just because we don't know what his contribution would have been. Well, that is true for every player, and it varies from game to game. Some players exceed expectations, others don't. That's why they play the games on a court and not on paper. At the beginning of the year you didn't know what to expect from Finke, either, or you had already made up your mind before giving him a chance. Just because you don't know ahead of time what to expect from a player does not make that player expendable.

 

[Epsilon]

People are just playing to their own narrative if they don't think those guys would have made all the difference this season. That's silly. We would have been a far better team this year. But, because of those injuries, we have to suffer this year to reap great benefits going forward.

When someone solicits your opinion, you are, by definition, giving your narrative.

That said, I think anyone who suggests that we would be a tournament team (myself included), IS suggesting we would reap great benefits, when compared to our performance this year to-date.

Where do you think we would be, if everyone was healthy?

 

[HoustonIllini]

I think the numbers show that Groce has done a pretty darned good job with the offense, and has struggled with defense, as opined by many of the posters. Consider:

• In 2015 through 15 games, we have the third highest scoring Illinois team in the past fifteen years, scoring 75.7 ppg on average;
• Our ATO Ratio is the second best it's ever been(1.4), bettered only by that magical 2004-05 team led by Dee (1.7);
• Only last year's squad (9.9) has had fewer turnovers per game than this years squad (10.1);
• Apparently we're driving into the lane a little more with the number of FTA the highest (18.0) since '07-08 (19.4)
• All of the defensive indicators are down - rebounds (32.9 worst), steals (5.6 - only 2 years worse), and blocks (2.1 worst) per game show that we don't have what it takes on D

We're too big to play small ball, and too small to match others bigs. I see this year as a chance to develop our youngsters (Finke is a pleasant surprise), and look for Coach to land a solid big man (or 2 or 3) for next year. While the postseason is not out, I think its' highly unlikely given the status of the roster. Hell, another injury and we'll be suiting up the managers again . . .

BTW, in another thread I questioned why people keeping on harping on the perceived lack of a quality PG - all of the offensive indicators are up . . . With a dominant big we'd not even be talking about PG, unless DMAC came back and was trying to tach them how to get the ball into the post :hand: Get a quality big and some of the D problems go away - not all - but some. If they give the kind of effort for the rest of the season that they gave in the tOSU game, some good things will happen.

I'd like to see Coach have a few more years to see if he can deliver the promise that many of us feel he has for the program. The alternative is five more years of disruption to a program (and a University!) that doesn't need any more turmoil.

GO

 

[illinitiger]

I think the numbers show that Groce has done a pretty darned good job with the offense, and has struggled with defense, as opined by many of the posters. Consider:

• In 2015 through 15 games, we have the third highest scoring Illinois team in the past fifteen years, scoring 75.7 ppg on average;
• Our ATO Ratio is the second best it's ever been(1.4), bettered only by that magical 2004-05 team led by Dee (1.7);
• Only last year's squad (9.9) has had fewer turnovers per game than this years squad (10.1);
• Apparently we're driving into the lane a little more with the number of FTA the highest (18.0) since '07-08 (19.4)
• All of the defensive indicators are down - rebounds (32.9 worst), steals (5.6 - only 2 years worse), and blocks (2.1 worst) per game show that we don't have what it takes on D

We're too big to play small ball, and too small to match others bigs. I see this year as a chance to develop our youngsters (Finke is a pleasant surprise), and look for Coach to land a solid big man (or 2 or 3) for next year. While the postseason is not out, I think its' highly unlikely given the status of the roster. Hell, another injury and we'll be suiting up the managers again . . .

BTW, in another thread I questioned why people keeping on harping on the perceived lack of a quality PG - all of the offensive indicators are up . . . With a dominant big we'd not even be talking about PG, unless DMAC came back and was trying to tach them how to get the ball into the post :hand: Get a quality big and some of the D problems go away - not all - but some. If they give the kind of effort for the rest of the season that they gave in the tOSU game, some good things will happen.

I'd like to see Coach have a few more years to see if he can deliver the promise that many of us feel he has for the program. The alternative is five more years of disruption to a program (and a University!) that doesn't need any more turmoil.

GO

Great summary...backed up with metrics. Thanks HoustonIllini!

 

[uinuke81]

People tend to forget that it took Lou Henson, our Hall of Fame coach, 6 years to get us to our first NCAA tourney under him.

Granted, he inherited a team that was abysmal in the two seasons prior to his arrival.

Nonetheless, it took him some time to establish relationships within the state and get the Chicago pipeline going.

Too many people expect instant gratification, when it really takes some time to build relationships and get a recruiting pipeline started.

I think that next season will be the key one for Groce. With or without Abrams and/or Thorne, we should have enough talent to finish between 4th and 6th in the BIG. Getting Black back and healthy will be key and we can expect further improvement from JCL, Finke, AJ and DJW, especially on the defensive end.

If Abrams and Thorne are back, we have the potential to be even better.

You can't compare the Lou Henson era to today. Until 1980, only 40 teams made the dance compared to the 68 today. Instant gratification? This thing is on a clear downhill slide no matter how you spin it and a mediocre 4th - 6th place finish as an aspiration is a pretty pathetic goal IMO.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

This is so logically strained.

On the one hand, you are criticizing our lack of depth. On the other hand, you are discounting Thorne because in a different universe he might not have come here.

But Thorne did come here, and he played great until he did get injured. If he didn't come here, someone else would, and if that player was injured, it would also affect our depth.

There's no evidence to support the bolded, that's purely speculation that Groce had another transfer in the pipeline to fill in at the 5. And in looking at the stats, Thorne played well with 13.4 / 8.4. You and I may define "great" differently.

Each team can have up to 13 scholarships per year, and having five bigs is pretty good depth in the frontcourt. If you have more than that, the other positions become thin. When three bigs are injured, even the deepest teams have depth issues.

Bodies in uniform <> depth, and I'm not sure where you get 5 from. Mav, Black, Finke, and Thorne are the bigs we started the year with.

You discount Darius just because we don't know what his contribution would have been. Well, that is true for every player, and it varies from game to game. Some players exceed expectations, others don't.

I think you're missing the point. A number of posters lament the loss of DP, but we don't even know what we lost. He played zero minutes for the University of Illinois, so there is no baseline on what his loss means to the team. It's also on Groce for taking a flyer on a guy who had a history of behavior issues. Hindsight's 20/20, but there were warning signs and DP even got a second chance which blew up in his face.

That's why they play the games on a court and not on paper. At the beginning of the year you didn't know what to expect from Finke, either, or you had already made up your mind before giving him a chance. Just because you don't know ahead of time what to expect from a player does not make that player expendable.

For the record, I had very high hopes for Finke and he has exceeded them. A RS frosh with his offensive abilities should be formidable, and so far he is. Your mention of him is fairly irrelevant however, and FWIW, Finke's defense is...not good, to put it mildly.

My post was essentially in response to your earlier statement "His first three defensive teams were good or above average at least I believe."

But those first three teams weren't good defensively, and barely approached average. The reason they weren't is either
a) he isn't bringing in guys who can play defense at a B1G level
b) he isn't coaching up the guys who can play at that level
c) both of the above

You absolutely cannot lay all of our defensive woes on the injuries. If the next man up cannot play defense, cannot hustle, cannot work for a rebound, they aren't the right guys to have on the floor (or the bench), and that is on the coach, period. No one expects they 4th and 5th guys off the bench to perform at the same caliber as the guys that should be starting, but I don't think it is unreasonable to expect them to perform at a higher level than what we're seeing.

I like Groce, I want him to be the answer, but our defense is terrible. You cannot win in the B1G with terrible defense, and that's on him and his staff, one way or another.

 

[84Illini]

People are just playing to their own narrative if they don't think those guys would have made all the difference this season. That's silly. We would have been a far better team this year. But, because of those injuries, we have to suffer this year to reap great benefits going forward.

I don't think anyone doubts the Illini would have been better without the injuries. I'm just not sure how good "better" would be. Even before the injuries, most preseason predictions had the Illini in the lower half of the conference, and Groce was considered to be on the hot seat.

Ironically, lowered expectations due to injuries might be what save Groce's job.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

I don't think anyone doubts the Illini would have been better without the injuries. I'm just not sure how good "better" would be. Even before the injuries, most preseason predictions had the Illini in the lower half of the conference, and Groce was considered to be on the hot seat.

Ironically, lowered expectations due to injuries might be what save Groce's job.

I agree with all of this. TA wasn't an all B1G player, and Thorne probably wasn't going to be. We'd be better, but we wouldn't be upper half of the conference, lock for a tourney bid better.

 

[Greensboro]

I do not consider making the NCAA's with a veteran team high expectations. People forget that that team made the NCAA's the year before Weber's last season with BP and DJ as guards. There was no reason to not expect a team led by two senior guards, still had a big guy in the middle who gave you defense and rebounding, and plenty of other pieces to make the tourney. Which they did.

Except it was basically the same team that went down in flames the year before, minus our best player, Meyer's Leonard. That team also did more than just make the tourney, they knocked off 2 eventual number 1 seeds along the way and went down to a 2 seed in a tough game that would have gotten them to the sweet 16 for the first time since 2005.

For those mad about my comment on TA and Thorne. JG had open scholies to fill regardless of their situation and missed. He has taken to many transfers when he should have been taking guys that could have come in and developed. Instead, he went for the quick fixes, home runs, and it did not work. Many were banking on TA this year. Now its next year. Hopefully, he plays next year and TJL brings something as well as we need it. All of this is on JG. Like it or not. By the way, he was my pick for coach when we were looking. The results of the last three years are why I have my doubts. I have a hard time believing he survives this year. He needs to do better recruiting the home state and I do not mean just grabbing the top guys. If this season tanks, we will be lucky to be picked middle of the pack. Why would we be picked higher?

Absolutely JG has missed, but that is part of recruiting. Unfortunately, we have struck out consistently at the 1 & 5. I think we have done quite well at 2-4, Hill, Nunn, JCl, Jordan, Black, Finke, and DJW. I would split transfers into 2 categories, 5th year, Sam Maniscalco, Sam McLaurin, Ekey, Thorne, and Starks (planned) who were spot fills for open scholarships that anyone should take if they have the open spot & normal transfers Rice, Cosby, Paul. It is easy in hindsight to say, but with Henry, Langford, Shaw, Ibby all transferring out I think it is tough not to take Paul/Cosby/Rice without the benefit of hindsight. Finishing second in recruiting battles doesn't help, but we are doing something right to be in these battles (& we have won some big ones in the case of Black, Nunn, JCL, TJL, and I would include Thorne). We just need to stay relevant enough to get a good 2017 class to add to our young guys

And who cares where we are picked next year? it matters where we finish next year & it matters who we recruit between now and 2017 class.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Even before the injuries, most preseason predictions had the Illini in the lower half of the conference

I'm not sure why people continue to trot out the preseason predictions as valid or evidence we wouldn't be good this year. It's no more valid that the claims we'd make the tournament. One of the reasons we were picked "in the lower half" was because the B1G was supposed to be better and deeper this year. Well, it's pretty obvious that isn't true. MSU, Maryland and Purdue are living up to that pre-season hype and Iowa may be better than expected, but the rest of the league is pretty mediocre and the B1G is 6th in conference RPI, 4th per Sagarin.

And another reason we were picked there is because most people just look at the previous seasons standings and go from there. We lost Rice and added a good class, but no top 20 studs. But the contributions from Finke and JCL have been significant and Thorne appeared to be better than most would have guess as well to go along with the continued improvement from Hill and Nunn. My guess is had all this information been available, those preseason predictions might have been a lot different.

 

[Obelix]

Except it was basically the same team that went down in flames the year before, minus our best player, Meyer's Leonard. That team also did more than just make the tourney, they knocked off 2 eventual number 1 seeds along the way and went down to a 2 seed in a tough game that would have gotten them to the sweet 16 for the first time since 2005.

Absolutely JG has missed, but that is part of recruiting. Unfortunately, we have struck out consistently at the 1 & 5. I think we have done quite well at 2-4, Hill, Nunn, JCl, Jordan, Black, Finke, and DJW. I would split transfers into 2 categories, 5th year, Sam Maniscalco, Sam McLaurin, Ekey, Thorne, and Starks (planned) who were spot fills for open scholarships that anyone should take if they have the open spot & normal transfers Rice, Cosby, Paul. It is easy in hindsight to say, but with Henry, Langford, Shaw, Ibby all transferring out I think it is tough not to take Paul/Cosby/Rice without the benefit of hindsight. Finishing second in recruiting battles doesn't help, but we are doing something right to be in these battles (& we have won some big ones in the case of Black, Nunn, JCL, TJL, and I would include Thorne). We just need to stay relevant enough to get a good 2017 class to add to our young guys

And who cares where we are picked next year? it matters where we finish next year & it matters who we recruit between now and 2017 class.

All good comments. As I've written in previous posts, when Groce took over he had to replace 3.5 classes (2009 senior class, 2012 class/empty, 2010 class/all gone, and great part of 2011/Ibby, Langford, Shaw that clearly did not belong) as opposed to just his senior class. That was an unusual situation. So taking transfers was to be expected.

His biggest fault has been indeed the inability to recruit any top-100 HS recruits at PG and C, more than the rest of his recruiting that IMO has been fine.

 

[themudflap]

I think the numbers show that Groce has done a pretty darned good job with the offense, and has struggled with defense, as opined by many of the posters. Consider:

• In 2015 through 15 games, we have the third highest scoring Illinois team in the past fifteen years, scoring 75.7 ppg on average;
• Our ATO Ratio is the second best it's ever been(1.4), bettered only by that magical 2004-05 team led by Dee (1.7);
• Only last year's squad (9.9) has had fewer turnovers per game than this years squad (10.1);
• Apparently we're driving into the lane a little more with the number of FTA the highest (18.0) since '07-08 (19.4)
• All of the defensive indicators are down - rebounds (32.9 worst), steals (5.6 - only 2 years worse), and blocks (2.1 worst) per game show that we don't have what it takes on D

We're too big to play small ball, and too small to match others bigs. I see this year as a chance to develop our youngsters (Finke is a pleasant surprise), and look for Coach to land a solid big man (or 2 or 3) for next year. While the postseason is not out, I think its' highly unlikely given the status of the roster. Hell, another injury and we'll be suiting up the managers again . . .

BTW, in another thread I questioned why people keeping on harping on the perceived lack of a quality PG - all of the offensive indicators are up . . . With a dominant big we'd not even be talking about PG, unless DMAC came back and was trying to tach them how to get the ball into the post :hand: Get a quality big and some of the D problems go away - not all - but some. If they give the kind of effort for the rest of the season that they gave in the tOSU game, some good things will happen.

I'd like to see Coach have a few more years to see if he can deliver the promise that many of us feel he has for the program. The alternative is five more years of disruption to a program (and a University!) that doesn't need any more turmoil.

GO

You cannot compare offensive stats for this year vs previous as they have changed the rules that have allowed scoring to be up everywhere. Not the same game.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

We weren't lucky to get Thorne at all. Transfers happen all the time now and we did what was necessary to beat out the rest of the competition. And who's using Thornes injury as derailing some master plan? Thornes injury is a major blow even if everyone else was healthy. Throw the rest of the mash unit on top and you see what happens.

If part of our ongoing strategy is to hope 5th years at positions of need magically appear every year, we are more screwed than any of us think. Thorne was gravy. Losing him just puts us back where we were before any of us had heard of him, which is with a roster that is not ready to compete in the B1G.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

If part of our ongoing strategy is to hope 5th years at positions of need magically appear every year, we are more screwed than any of us think. Thorne was gravy. Losing him just puts us back where we were before any of us had heard of him, which is with a roster that is not ready to compete in the B1G.

But we just lost by 2 to OSU on their court....

 

[bobbob]

Funny you should ask, because that's where I goofed my original quote. We have terrible transition D.

Quote from that article:

The Illini have given up 1.22 points per transition possession — good for the 1st percentile nationally. Michigan won’t get many chances to run off of Illinois turnovers, but the Illini’s lack of aggression on the offensive glass could lead to plenty of rip-and-run fastbreaks for Michigan’s guards.

You need more data. Specifically how many transition attempts the other teams are getting.

If they are getting a small number of attempts, that 1.22 may be misleading. That means they are only getting "sure thing" chances (i.e. PG getting stripped at the top of the key leading to a one on none layup). I'd imagine that rebound-outlet-layup fastbreaks are statistically more difficult than TO-based fast breaks.

So if you eliminate them by not crashing, you will limit the more difficult fast break points, so your pptp would likely go up even though you are doing "better". Remember, the best transition defense is one that they don't even take a shot attempt, and that wouldn't show up in a pptp stat.

But I can't seem to locate fast break points and/or attempts per game or per team or anything for NCAA.

 

[Obelix]

We weren't lucky to get Thorne at all. Transfers happen all the time now and we did what was necessary to beat out the rest of the competition. And who's using Thornes injury as derailing some master plan? Thornes injury is a major blow even if everyone else was healthy. Throw the rest of the mash unit on top and you see what happens.

Lucky not in the sense of effort by the staff, as it obviously takes a lot of effort to recruit a player of Thorne's caliber. But chances that Illinois will be able to successfully recruit a player of Thorne's caliber as a 5th year transfer in the future, especially at C, are very slim. Thorne is more of an aberration of what Illinois can generally successfully recruit in the 5th year market.

Much higher chances to recruit better HS players at PG/C, despite our misses, which are the core of our recruiting problem.