Sorry for the lack of recent updates! I try not to let a career get in the way of getting some work done, but recently I did have to make some progress on that degree I'm supposed to be getting. It also doesn't help that we haven't been moving up this chart during the past 3 sets of games...
Any rate, here's the overview after the weekday games this week (not including anything from the weekend):
First thing to notice is that Iowa's now a 2:1 favorite to win the Big Ten (or get the 1st seed on a tiebreaker). MSU has dropped to below a 1-in-200 chance with their 3 consecutive losses. At this point, it appears to be a 3-team race between IU, Iowa, and Maryland.
We're now cruising solidly for a bottom-4 seed, and now outside 1-in-a-million to win the conference. Minny and Rutgers have laid solid claim to the basement, as there's not much overlap for the 13 and 14 seeds outside of those two teams.
Nebraska's the biggest upward mover - we've sort of switched outlooks with them since I posted last.
On to the tiebreaker effects:
Interesting the change that's happened at the top! Last time I posted, Iowa got help from the tiebreakers by virtue of their wins vs MSU and at Purdue. They actually expanded on that by beating MSU this week, but now the chance that either of those teams competes for the title is relatively small. Iowa plays IU twice, but they play Maryland only once, and it's in College Park. So, pretty clear that the 1.9% swing is coming from that.
You can see the same sort of thing going on with Illinois and PSU for the 11/12 seeds, I think, since we only play at PSU. Since that's the last game of the year, we won't get a chance to see how much the result of that game influences any long-term projections.
Minnesota continues to see the biggest influence of tiebreakers, with a 6.3% boost to their 13 seed odds mostly at the expense of the 12 and 14. They already lost their only game against PSU, hence the likelihood of losing that tiebreaker for the 12. I'm not sure why they're favored to win ties over Rutgers-- could be that it's scenarios where their only two wins are over Rutgers, and Rutgers finds 2 wins somewhere else, or it could be that Rutgers already lost their only games against IU, Iowa, and Maryland, who will likely be the top 3 teams (remember, record against top teams is the next tiebreaker after head-to-head).