BIG Predictions

#126      

whovous

W
Washington, DC
whovous
IllinoisFan733 said:
Total amount of wins is meaningless. Illinois could of been undefeated in the non-conference with a schedule full of cupcakes, but that won't help their resume.

It's the quantity of quality teams you do beat. Purdue was a good start. Need to string some more resume-building wins together.
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If we can beat some resume teams, like Indiana or Maryland, we will likely wind up better than 10-8, too. If we beat them and still wind up 10-8, we will have some more resume damaging losses on our slate.

At this point, being able to even discuss this possibility without giggling is heartening.
 
#129      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
FeelYourPaign said:
Better move Iowa up in your predictions, everyone !
Beating MSU badly, 54 -33 right now in E Lansing
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Any guesses how far they'll move up, percentage-wise? I'll go with 45% or so, but I bet they'll have the highest tiebreaker number of any team this year so far.
 
#130      

89illinigrad

89illinigrad
Chicago
89illinigrad
whovous said:
If we can beat some resume teams, like Indiana or Maryland, we will likely wind up better than 10-8, too. If we beat them and still wind up 10-8, we will have some more resume damaging losses on our slate.

At this point, being able to even discuss this possibility without giggling is heartening.
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Looking at our remaining schedule, I can see us finishing anywhere from 9-9 all the way to 12-6 (with some luck and one of Black or Thorne returning).

With that said, I predict we finish 10-8, win 2 games in the BTT to give us a 20-14 record (if my math is correct) and a good shot at a NCAA bid.
 
#131      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Iowa's now a 71% favorite to win the top seed in the tourney.
 
#133      

Hoppy2105

H
Little Rock, Arkansas
Hoppy2105
With Wisconsin stepping down during this shift of power among the top teams in the B1G I was hoping we could have filled the void.

Unfortunately, it looks like Iowa did...and it makes me sick.
 
#134      

Jreed322

J
Jreed322
Hoppy2105 said:
With Wisconsin stepping down during this shift of power among the top teams in the B1G I was hoping we could have filled the void.

Unfortunately, it looks like Iowa did...and it makes me sick.
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Ehh, I wouldn't count any chickens right now for Iowa especially in the next couple years. They are very senior laden this year and looking at their recruiting it hasn't been the best over the last couple years so it'll be interesting to see how they fill the void next year.
 
#135      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
The all Street clothes team of Abrams, MLT, Nichols, Black and MT would probably be projected in the top half of B1G, when healthy or eligible.:)
 
#141      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
IF (big IF) Illinois can finish above .500 in the Big 10 and win a conference tournament game, I'm very curious to see how the committee handles them. We've often heard that they take injuries into account and try to admit and seed based on the team as it is now, and not as it was when the injuries occurred.

If they consider the, what was it? ten? different lineups Illinois was forced to use during its first 11 games versus the more consistent lineup we'd likely see if Illinois were to go on a bit of a run to end the season, I could see them letting Illinois in the tourney.
 
#142      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
champaignchris said:
IF (big IF) Illinois can finish above .500 in the Big 10 and win a conference tournament game, I'm very curious to see how the committee handles them. We've often heard that they take injuries into account and try to admit and seed based on the team as it is now, and not as it was when the injuries occurred.

If they consider the, what was it? ten? different lineups Illinois was forced to use during its first 11 games versus the more consistent lineup we'd likely see if Illinois were to go on a bit of a run to end the season, I could see them letting Illinois in the tourney.
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I don't know if they'd go as far as the number of different lineups we played, but something simple like the Springfield location and lack of Nunn for the North Florida and Chattanooga losses would almost certainly come up if we were on the bubble.
 
#143      

Calvin

C
Calvin
89illinigrad said:
Looking at our remaining schedule, I can see us finishing anywhere from 9-9 all the way to 12-6 (with some luck and one of Black or Thorne returning).

With that said, I predict we finish 10-8, win 2 games in the BTT to give us a 20-14 record (if my math is correct) and a good shot at a NCAA bid.
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We don't have a terrible resume right now, thanks to our difficult SOS. Yes we've lost a lot of games, but we've lost to (approx ranking)

129 NF
106 Chat
58 OSU
34 Prov
33 ND
26 ISU
21 Mich
8 MSU

Unfortunately, we have a lot of crappy wins, with Yale probably top-100, and Purdue, top-25. That's just not much --certainly not enough to get bid consideration. However if you think we're going to be a lot better than we've been thus far, we'll have opportunities for some decent wins that could build our resume.

Nebraska may be borderline top-100
Indiana is top-25
Iowa is top-25
Northwestern is top-100, close to top-50
Wisc is top-100
Maryland is top-25

Given the caliber of team on our schedule, I don't think we'll need a gaudy record, in fact, just the opposite --if we get in, we'll have won a few of the tough games, and held serve on the crap teams (Rutgers, Minney, PSU) 10-8 plus a win or two in the BTT I expect will put us in decent shape, especially if the committee can point to us being healthier and playing better later in the season, should Black or Thorne come back. Gotta LOT of work to do though.
 
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#144      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Calvin, not sure what ranking you're using, but they don't look like RPI, which is what the committee still uses.

But I agree our resume right now isn't really that bad, but we do need more wins. And we don't really have too many more chances to get good ones, given that the B1G schedule we got is actually fairly easy. Need to avoid the stumbles and maybe knock off Iowa or Indiana.
 
#145      

illinitiger

I
illinitiger
danielb927 said:
I don't know if they'd go as far as the number of different lineups we played, but something simple like the Springfield location and lack of Nunn for the North Florida and Chattanooga losses would almost certainly come up if we were on the bubble.
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I was surprised to see Chattanooga with RPI of 60...
 
#146      

Jreed322

J
Jreed322
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Calvin, not sure what ranking you're using, but they don't look like RPI, which is what the committee still uses.

But I agree our resume right now isn't really that bad, but we do need more wins. And we don't really have too many more chances to get good ones, given that the B1G schedule we got is actually fairly easy. Need to avoid the stumbles and maybe knock off Iowa or Indiana.
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Yeah I agree here. Last year we had 5 top 100 wins and a worse SOS. This year we are dangerously close to having three already with Purdue, Yale and uab who is 98 currently. Our SOS is somewhere around 20th which is amazing. The way our season started everyone wrote it off but we are not anywhere near out of the tournament. A loss tomorrow would change all that of course.
 
#149      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
Jreed322 said:
The way our season started everyone wrote it off but we are not anywhere near out of the tournament.
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The correct statement would have been that despite the win against Purdue, this team was nowhere near making the tournament. This team was nowhere near the bubble.

Still a lot of basketball to be played, and even in losses (not as much fun as wins) it is interesting to see player development, short spurts of good play etc.

But if people still have expectations of making post-season, they will be heavily disappointed.
 
#150      

frozenrope9190

frozenrope9190
Aurora, IL
frozenrope9190
This season is a wash, in my opinion. It's hard to actually go through the wash season while it's in progress, but there can't be a whole lot determined on coach status or national scene based on this season's unfortunate injury situation. I'm going to be looking at the experience and progress gained by the young'ins, and the leadership gained by Nunn and Hill, who will be counted on in their Senior seasons to get the team to the tourney.

Anything more than that at this point is energy wasted, in both directions. I know there are those who will differ in opinion and will count this season to the pile of Groce 'misses' and demand a change. Or look for each win as a counterpoint to it. I would humbly suggest that we bring this down a notch, enjoy the wins as they come, hunker down and get to work on the offseason and next season, which WILL be the defining time in this group's tenure.