illinifaninwi
- DeForest, Wisconsin
I see anywhere from 6-12 to 8-10 and thus will go with 7-11.
Here's hoping for better!
Here's hoping for better!
BIG Predictions
Michigan L
@OSU W
@MSU L
PUR L
NEB W
@IU L
@MIN W
OSU L
WIS W
@RUT W
IOWA L
@NW L
RUT W
@WIS L
IU W
MIN W
@MD L
@PSU W
9-9, 17-14,
@OSU W
@MSU L
PUR L
NEB W
@IU L
@MIN W
OSU L
WIS W
@RUT W
IOWA L
@NW L
RUT W
@WIS L
IU W
MIN W
@MD L
@PSU W
9-9, 17-14,
Agree Matt, that stretch is where we find out if this team and its coach have improved...5 potential wins there.
For those who disagree we can do it, this team should have beaten Providence and they butchered a Notre Dame win. Iowa State was the only unwinnable game we've had.
Why? What could possibly go wrong up there?
Thanks for doing this, love it. Looking at it quickly tells me that NU, OSU and Wisconsin games are perhaps the most important of the season, win 3 of those and we might really shift our place in the standings.
Based on the latest possible preseason rankings on kenpom, here are the predictions for B1G tournament seeds. Blank squares are seeds that occurred zero times in a million sims - anything else (even 0%) happened at least once.
I've done a little updating of the code that will hopefully help with predicting tourney opponents a bit more accurately. This year, I'm planning to run things with and without tiebreakers throughout the season as the results and rankings evolve, to see how much of an effect tiebreakers have at any given point. I was surprised to see the tiebreakers appear to have a non-negligible effect even this early in the season--more on that later.
any chance you can post the initial predictions and final results from last season?
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I can try to dig that up. Hoping to be more regular with it this year so I can post an animation of the season evolving day by day come March.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
At the end of the year, tiebreakers almost always come into play in determining B1G tourney seeding. By the last day of games, it's clear what scenarios are in play. However, this early in the year there are 2^126 possible season outcomes left, which is an astronomical number (actually beyond any number you'd count in the universe). Despite that, it appears tiebreakers have up to about a 2% impact on how the seeding goes. Most clear is that Purdue is helped at the expense of MSU - they play only once, in West Lafayette.
https://mobile.twitter.com/daniel_borup/status/681969852953706496/photo/1
https://mobile.twitter.com/daniel_borup/status/681969852953706496/photo/1
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urdue just winning in Madison is a big step for them.
I'll go with Sparty for winning the BIG though.
Oldest chart I could find from 2/10
Final Standings:
Seed School Conf. Tiebreak
1 Wisconsin 16–2
2 Maryland 14–4
3 MSU 12–6
4 Purdue 12–6
5 Iowa 12–6
6 Ohio State 11–7
7 Indiana 9–9
8 Illinois 9–9
9 Michigan 8–10
10 NW 6–12
11 Minnesota 6–12
12 Nebraska 5–13
13 Penn State 4–14
14 Rutgers 2–16
Little less than half the B1G season left at this point.
Me 2. No way we lose twice to them. Id lay big money we beat them both times.
ILLWKU
- Richmond, KY
W Michigan (1-0)
L at Ohio State (1-1)
L at Michigan State (1-2)
L vs Purdue (1-3)
W vs Nebraska (2-3)
W at Indiana (3-3)
L at Minnesota (3-4)
W vs Ohio State (4-4)
W vs Wisconsin (5-4)
W at Rutgers (6-4)
W vs Iowa (7-4)
L at Northwestern (7-5)
W vs Rutgers (8-5)
L at Wisconsin (8-6)
W vs Indiana (9-6)
L vs Minnesota (9-7)
L at Maryland (9-8)
W at Penn State (10-8)
L at Ohio State (1-1)
L at Michigan State (1-2)
L vs Purdue (1-3)
W vs Nebraska (2-3)
W at Indiana (3-3)
L at Minnesota (3-4)
W vs Ohio State (4-4)
W vs Wisconsin (5-4)
W at Rutgers (6-4)
W vs Iowa (7-4)
L at Northwestern (7-5)
W vs Rutgers (8-5)
L at Wisconsin (8-6)
W vs Indiana (9-6)
L vs Minnesota (9-7)
L at Maryland (9-8)
W at Penn State (10-8)
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Dan - thanks for fixing my broken link. Here is the seed effect of tiebreakers (before today's games). We're on the shorter end of the stick this year, with about a 1% skew towards the 10-13 seeds instead of the 7-9 seeds. Things are so muddled up in the middle of the pack, I'm surprised there's that much of an effect. The only explanation I can think of is how the single and double plays work out in relation to teams we're likely to tie.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Oldest chart I could find from 2/10
Final Standings:
Seed School Conf. Tiebreak
1 Wisconsin 16–2
2 Maryland 14–4
3 MSU 12–6
4 Purdue 12–6
5 Iowa 12–6
6 Ohio State 11–7
7 Indiana 9–9
8 Illinois 9–9
9 Michigan 8–10
10 NW 6–12
11 Minnesota 6–12
12 Nebraska 5–13
13 Penn State 4–14
14 Rutgers 2–16
Little less than half the B1G season left at this point.
Here are the numbers from 12/30 last year, but in order of the final standings. Easy to see Purdue and Minnesota were the big positive/negative surprises of the year.
They could be in a hole before Denzel gets back though.
If we beat Iowa and Indiana but lose to NW and minny I will be livid.
I was about to say the same thing, but it seems like something Illinois would do
I just like the word livid. Have put my wife in that exact state of mind a million times since we met.
These are pretty interesting, thanks for putting the predictions together.
I have no real reason for this but I want to be optimistic, so I say the Illini go 10-8.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Since these are technically going to be predictions throughout the year, I'll just keep them going in this thread. Here's the data after each team's first game. Purdue's now favored over the field to be the 1 seed in the B1G tourney.
I'm trying to run these every 2 games or so, but will plan to just post twice a week after each set of games.
I'm trying to run these every 2 games or so, but will plan to just post twice a week after each set of games.
Thanks Daniel for doing this.
If we beat all teams below us on this first outlook, home and away and lost everything else, that gives us 6 wins in B10 and overall 14-17 record before the B10 tourney. I think that's a reasonable low expectation, IMO, given our challenges.
PostersLastStand
- Wayne County, IL
I don't see us winning more than 4 games, so 4-14 in conference play. No NCAA, NIT or Illinois Junior high tournament birth (Small School).
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Here's an update after everyone's played 2 games. Things will start getting less regular with bye weeks kicking in soon.
Iowa's now the favorite after their impressive 2-0 start against MSU and Purdue. Still a close race at the top, but that's a huge jump for Iowa. After their home win over MSU, the the forecast gave them only a 5% chance of winning the B1G, so they've gone from a 1-in-20 to a 1-in-3 chance by virtue of the win at Purdue.
Not surprisingly, Iowa's now getting the most benefit from tiebreakers. They do still have to play MSU/PU again, so that effect isn't as strong as it could be if they win one or both of the rematches.
In terms of our Illini, tiebreakers are somewhat unfriendly to us right now - my guess is that's coming from runs with multi-team ties where UM/OSU are included.
Iowa's now the favorite after their impressive 2-0 start against MSU and Purdue. Still a close race at the top, but that's a huge jump for Iowa. After their home win over MSU, the the forecast gave them only a 5% chance of winning the B1G, so they've gone from a 1-in-20 to a 1-in-3 chance by virtue of the win at Purdue.
Not surprisingly, Iowa's now getting the most benefit from tiebreakers. They do still have to play MSU/PU again, so that effect isn't as strong as it could be if they win one or both of the rematches.
In terms of our Illini, tiebreakers are somewhat unfriendly to us right now - my guess is that's coming from runs with multi-team ties where UM/OSU are included.