This is the long and short of it. It's a no-win situation right now: if Whitman were to bet big on Groce by extending him and giving him a big raise and buyout, Groce would undoubtedly be able to recruit more effectively. However, the fanbase would be outraged and Whitman's career would hinge on Groce becoming a long term winner at UI. Not a smart bet for Whitman to make given the evidence at hand. However, without that actual material vote of confidence, Groce is behind the 8-ball.
As I see it, right now Groce is in a tough spot: Whitman has effectively given him a prove-it year where Groce needs to 1) convince top 2017 talent to come to Champaign despite his tenuous job prospects, and/or 2) make the NCAA tournament with a mediocre roster. It's tough to sell a recruit on literally being your job security; Groce is essentially at a point where he has to say, "I might be on the hot seat now, but if you commit the seat cools down. I might not have won many games so far, but if you come we'll start winning." It will take a special group of kids to commit to saving the program and the coach's job.
I'm a hopeful guy by nature and I like John Groce as a person and representative of the university, so I'm crossing my fingers that the stars align. If I had to bet on an outcome, though, I'd say Groce doesn't get Tilmon, maybe doesn't get Goodwin, misses the tournament again, and is let go next spring. I hope it doesn't go down that way.
