Illini Basketball 2016-2017

[IlliniFandom]

Here's a look at the PG depth charts for all 14 B1G teams. I've listed stats for each player from their most recent healthy season. For freshmen, I've listed the 247 composite ranking. These are ranked in order. I'm considering both talent and depth. It goes without saying that this is totally subjective (I know some will have MSU and Nebraska higher and PSU and Minnesota lower, for instance). Anyway, I hope this helps illustrate the B1G landscape a little better. At least we're not Iowa :thumb:

#1: Maryland
Starter: Melo Trimble - JR - 14.8 ppg, 4.9 ast, 3.6 reb, 1.2 stl, .410 fg%, .315 3pt%
Primary Backup: Anthony Cowen - FR - #62 overall; #11 PG
3rd String: Jaylen Brantley - JR - 2.4 ppg, 0.6 ast, 1.0 reb, 0.2 stl, .474 fg%, .429 3pt%

#2: Michigan
Starter: Derrick Walton, Jr - SR - 11.6 ppg, 4.5 ast, 5.4 reb, 1.8 stl, .377 fg%, .387 3pt%
Primary Backup: Xavier Simpson - FR - #66 overall; #13 PG
3rd String: either Dan Dakich's son or they have Zak Irvin run the offense

#3: Northwestern
Starter: Bryant McIntosh - JR - 13.8 ppg, 6.7 ast, 3.6 reb, 1.0 stl, .423 fg%, .366 3pt%
Primary Backup: Jordan Ash - SO - 1.5 ppg, 1.0 ast, 0.7 reb, 0.2 stl, .414 fg%, .267 3pt%
3rd String: Isiah Brown - FR - #237 overall; #43 PG, or Scottie Lindsay (JR)

#4: Rutgers
Starter: Corey Sanders - SO - 15.9 ppg, 4.3 ast, 3.3 reb, 1.8 stl, .423 fg%, .315 3pt%
Primary Backup: Nigel Johnson - JR - 5.2 ppg, 1.7 ast, 1.6 reb, 1.0 stl, .398 fg%, .339 3pt% (2014-15 at KSU)
3rd String: I guess Jake Dadika? Less than 1 ppg, 1 ast, 1 reb. Non-factor.

#5: Penn State
Starter: Tony Carr - FR - #51 overall; #8 PG
Primary Backup: Shep Garner - JR - 14.8 ppg, 3.4 ast, 3.2 reb, 1.3 stl, .382 fg%, .366 3pt% (nice player - will start at SG this year, but showed he could play point last year)
3rd String: SR walk-on Sam Halle, I guess?

#6: Ohio State
Starter: JaQuan Lyle - SO - 11.2 ppg, 4.2 ast, 4.7 reb, 1.0 stl, .397 fg%, .252 3pt%
Primary Backup: CJ Jackson - SO - JUCO transfer
3rd String: Kam Williams probably slides over from the 2.

#7: Michigan State
Starter: Cassius Winston - FR - #33 overall; #5 PG
Primary Backup: Tum Tum Nairn - JR - 2.8 ppg, 3.3 ast, 1.1 reb, 0.3 stl, .379 fg%, .188 3pt%
3rd String: Eron Harris probably plays in a pinch.

#8: Wisconsin
Starter: Bronson Koenig - SR - 13.1 ppg, 2.4 ast, 2.8 reb, 0.4 stl, .392 fg%, .390 3pt%
Primary Backup: D'Mitrik Trice - FR - #357 overall; #76 PG
3rd String: Maybe Brevin Pritzl slides over?

#9: Minnesota
Starter: Nate Mason - JR - 13.8 ppg, 4.5 ast, 2.8 reb, 0.9 stl, .389 fg%, .302 3pt%
Primary Backup: Dupree McBrayer - SO - 5.9 ppg, 2.5 ast, 2.3 reb, 1.0 stl, .326 fg%, .250 3pt% (McBrayer will either start at SG or back up transfer Akeem Springs, but he's enough of a playmaker to give Mason a breather)
3rd String: ?? The Gophers have limited depth with Kevin Dorsey's transfer and Jarvis Johnson's heart-related retirement from the sport. Those guys were both top-200 PGs in the 2015 class.

#10: Nebraska
Starter: Glynn Watson - SO - 8.6 ppg, 2.4 ast, 1.9 reb, 1.2 stl, .389 fg%, .267 3pt%
Primary Backup: Tai Webster - SR - 10.1 ppg, 1.9 ast, 4.1 reb, 1.4 stl, .474 fg%, .350 3pt% (may start at SG or may back up Anton Gill there; can play spot minutes at PG)
3rd String: Bakari Evelyn - SO - 1.4 ppg, 0.2 ast, 0.5 reb, 5 mpg as a frosh

#11: Indiana
Starter: Josh Newkirk - 5.9 ppg, 2.7 ast, 1.3 reb, 0.5 stl, .377 fg%, .301 3pt% (2014-15 at Pitt)
Primary Backup: Robert Johnson - 8.1 ppg, 3.1 ast, 3.3 reb, 0.6 stl, .449 fg%, .447 3pt% (might start at SG in a 3-guard lineup; if not, might start over Newkirk, who never matched the hype at PITT and is coming off of microfracture surgery)
3rd String: one of the freshman - CG Curtis Jones is ranked #85 overall and PG Devonte Green is #198

#12: Purdue
Starter: Spike Albrecht - SR - 7.5 ppg, 3.9 ast, 2.3 reb, 0.9 stl, .404 fg%, .365 3pt% (2014-15 at UM)
Primary Backup: Carsen Edwards - FR - #118 overall; #24 PG
3rd String: P.J. Thompson - JR - 5.7 ppg, 2.7 ast, 2.1 reb, 0.7 stl, .438 fg%, .415 3pt%

#13: Illinois
Starter: Tracy Abrams - SR - 10.7 ppg, 3.2 ast, 3.5 reb, 1.2 stl, .333 fg%, .270 3pt% (2013-14)
Primary Backup: Te'Jon Lucas - FR - #142 overall; #28 PG
3rd String: Jaylon Tate - SR - 1.9 ppg, 2.6 ast, 1.3 reb, 0.4 stl, .367 fg%, .182 3pt%

#14: Iowa
Starter: Christian Williams - SO - 1.4 ppg, 0.4 ast, 0.9 reb, 0.3 stl, .321 fg%, .333 3pt%
Primary Backup: Jordan Bohannon - FR - #298 overall; #54 PG
3rd String: Probably Peter Jok doing a Malcolm Hill do-it-all thing

This is an awesome analysis with great details! I might just be a big homer here, but Illini at 13?! ouch. Tracy brings more than just what his numbers (that are 2 years old btw) bring versus what I think he might be able to do if he remains healthy. Leadership, voice, running the offense...possibly improved shooting (he's had 2 years to work on it...it better be good!)...he's not melo tremble, but definitely a better option than the previous 3?!!

 

[Illiniguy13]

Derrick Walton/Xavier Simpson--UM
TumTum Nairns/Cassius Winston--MSU
McIntosh--NW

LOL, PG might be the B!G's strongest position.

I'd say the 13thish PG ranking in the conference is fair, but I personally don't think there's a huge gap in talent across the board. The above mentioned players are quality PG's and would start for us no doubt but they really don't scare me, and neither does Trimble anymore. Just trying to focus on our situation from last year compared to the upcoming season and Abrams/Lucas/Tate is so much better than injured Tate/Lewis. Throw in a healthy and pretty deep front court and we should be alright.

 

[BananaShampoo]

If Tracy can remain healthy, I don't see us as worse than #8 or 9 at PG. The toughness, defense, rebounding, and intangibles that Tracy brings from the PG position make him better than his (2-year old) stats indicate.

 

[FatGreg]

I'd say the 13thish PG ranking in the conference is fair, but I personally don't think there's a huge gap in talent across the board. The above mentioned players are quality PG's and would start for us no doubt but they really don't scare me, and neither does Trimble anymore. Just trying to focus on our situation from last year compared to the upcoming season and Abrams/Lucas/Tate is so much better than injured Tate/Lewis. Throw in a healthy and pretty deep front court and we should be alright.

I agree that there's not a huge talent gap in general. If Tracy is approximately as good this year as he was pre-injury, he's in the same tier as a lot of these guys. It's just hard to count on his health, so the uncertainty factors in. Te'Jon could also turn out to be around as good as guys like Mason, Newkirk, and Watson.

I think there's a top tier of guys who would easily start for us: Trimble, McIntosh, Walton, Sanders, Lyle, and Koenig. Then there's a tier of guys below that who would probably start for us, but would either be about our 4th/5th best player or they're 4-star freshmen who haven't proven themselves yet: Cowen, Simpson, Carr, Garner, Winston, Tum Tum, Mason, and Watson. Below that, Tracy and Te'Jon are in a tier with high-level backups and guys that have question marks: Nigel Johnson, CJ Jackson, Newkirk, Albrecht, Carson Edwards, and PJ Thompson. Tate, in my opinion, is a solid backup and nothing more. Great to have him as a situational role player/9th man.

Here's an apples-to-oranges way to understand the talent gap question: how many PGs in the B1G would you consider equal to or better than Malcolm Hill as all-around players? Probably just Melo Trimble, right? Maybe not even. How many would you consider equal to or better than the projected sophomore version of JCL? I'd say Trimble, McIntosh, Sanders, for sure; possibly Lyle, Walton, Koenig, and Garner. Maybe Carr or Cassius Winston, but we won't know until we see them play. Three guys for sure and some maybes.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

@IlliniMBB
#Illini 2017 B1G Schedule:

Home: IOWA, MD, MICH, MSU, MINN, NU, OSU, PSU, WIS

Away: IND, IOWA, MD, MICH, NEB, NU, PSU, PUR, RUT

 

[TCTORNADO]

11-5

 

[Obelix]

On paper, pretty favorable playing NU and PSU twice. At the same time, other than what should be 3 guaranteed wins (MINN, NU, PSU - at home), team needs to get another 8 wins to reach the safe level of 11.

 

[icengineer]

I like that schedule. Tougher home games, and some winnable road games. I'm ready, let's go!

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

11-5

Still thinking about those other 2 games?

On paper, pretty favorable playing NU and PSU twice. At the same time, other than what should be 3 guaranteed wins (MINN, NU, PSU - at home), team needs to get another 8 wins to reach the safe level of 11.

Not sure "favorable" has any real relevancy these days. Playing bad teams can only hurt your resume if you stumble. And "safe level" is irrelevant, you have to look at the body of work overall, not just in conference.

 

[FatGreg]

Home:
IOWA - W
MD - L
MICH - W
MSU - L
MINN - W
NU - W
OSU - W
PSU - W
WIS - L

Away:
IND - L
IOWA - L
MD - L
MICH - L
NEB - W
NU - W
PSU - W
PUR - L
RUT - W

10-8

 

[whovous]

11-5

With two byes? It's an 18 game season.

 

[TCTORNADO]

With two byes? It's an 18 game season.

Forgot the ties.

 

[Obelix]

Not sure "favorable" has any real relevancy these days. Playing bad teams can only hurt your resume if you stumble. And "safe level" is irrelevant, you have to look at the body of work overall, not just in conference.

Barring extreme scenarios where we totally flop in pre-B1G season and/or almost all of our wins in B1G come from bottom feeders (e.g., tOSU last year), 11 wins in the B1G is a pretty safe plateau. Given that we play NEB, MINN, and RUT once, 3 relatively (expected) weaker B1G teams, I think it would take a pretty surprising turn of events for the Illini to miss the tournament with 11 wins. Assuming we can get to 11 wins.

 

[wILL-INI]

Im thinking 9W - 4L - 5toss ups.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Barring extreme scenarios where we totally flop in pre-B1G season and/or almost all of our wins in B1G come from bottom feeders (e.g., tOSU last year), 11 wins in the B1G is a pretty safe plateau. Given that we play NEB, MINN, and RUT once, 3 relatively (expected) weaker B1G teams, I think it would take a pretty surprising turn of events for the Illini to miss the tournament with 11 wins. Assuming we can get to 11 wins.

All this shows the irrelevancy of that "plateau". It's the side effect of the overall season, not a reason in itself.

Talking of the "extreme" examples only further makes the point. Teams that win 12+ conference games are good teams, they have good wins and are going to be playing in the NCAAs regardless. Same for teams that win 6 or fewer, they simply aren't good enough to make it. So we end up talking about the teams in the middle, and those "bubble" teams are going to be in the mix with all the other bubble teams from other conferences. So again (as I post every year), it makes conference record even more irrelevant because you're not even comparing the same conference!

The fact that most B1G teams get in when they have 11 or more wins is an interesting trivia point, not really significant by itself.

It's the myth that just won't die...

 

[IllinoisFan733]

Im thinking 9W - 4L - 5toss ups.

Agree... those 5 toss-up games will be huge. 14-4 vs. 9-9 brings a lot of variance to how the season looks at the end of the year.

 

[Obelix]

It will be interesting to see the exact schedule as well, the timing of games should be crucial. We need to come out of the gate fast in the first few B1G games and build some momentum, one of the problems with Groce teams is that we start the B1G relatively slow and play catch-up the rest of the schedule. We need to avoid the mid-season valley this year.

 

[TCTORNADO]

All this shows the irrelevancy of that "plateau". It's the side effect of the overall season, not a reason in itself.

Talking of the "extreme" examples only further makes the point. Teams that win 12+ conference games are good teams, they have good wins and are going to be playing in the NCAAs regardless. Same for teams that win 6 or fewer, they simply aren't good enough to make it. So we end up talking about the teams in the middle, and those "bubble" teams are going to be in the mix with all the other bubble teams from other conferences. So again (as I post every year), it makes conference record even more irrelevant because you're not even comparing the same conference!

The fact that most B1G teams get in when they have 11 or more wins is an interesting trivia point, not really significant by itself.

It's the myth that just won't die...

:thumb:
tOSU was 11-7 last year and didn't make the dance.
Illinois was 8-10 in 2012-2013 and made the dance
Go figure.

 

[illini80]

@IlliniMBB
#Illini 2017 B1G Schedule:

Home: IOWA, MD, MICH, MSU, MINN, NU, OSU, PSU, WIS

Away: IND, IOWA, MD, MICH, NEB, NU, PSU, PUR, RUT

I haven't seen other teams schedules, but I don't see how we would could do much better than this. Don't have to play @ MSU, OSU, or WIS and only have to play IND, MD, PUR once. That's arguably the six of the seven best teams we only see one time. The basketball gods have finally turned merciful!

 

[FatGreg]

I haven't seen other teams schedules, but I don't see how we would could do much better than this. Don't have to play @ MSU, OSU, or WIS and only have to play IND, MD, PUR once. That's arguably the six of the seven best teams we only see one time. The basketball gods have finally turned merciful!

Agreed. 12 wins is not outside the realm of possibility. I'm trying to remain cautious, since most of the objective season previews I've seen have us between 8th and 12th (10th-12th seems to be the usual projection). I think Iowa and OSU are being consistently overrated and Illinois and Nebraska are being slept on. Time will tell!

 

[Illiniguy13]

I agree that there's not a huge talent gap in general. If Tracy is approximately as good this year as he was pre-injury, he's in the same tier as a lot of these guys. It's just hard to count on his health, so the uncertainty factors in. Te'Jon could also turn out to be around as good as guys like Mason, Newkirk, and Watson.

I think there's a top tier of guys who would easily start for us: Trimble, McIntosh, Walton, Sanders, Lyle, and Koenig. Then there's a tier of guys below that who would probably start for us, but would either be about our 4th/5th best player or they're 4-star freshmen who haven't proven themselves yet: Cowen, Simpson, Carr, Garner, Winston, Tum Tum, Mason, and Watson. Below that, Tracy and Te'Jon are in a tier with high-level backups and guys that have question marks: Nigel Johnson, CJ Jackson, Newkirk, Albrecht, Carson Edwards, and PJ Thompson. Tate, in my opinion, is a solid backup and nothing more. Great to have him as a situational role player/9th man.

Here's an apples-to-oranges way to understand the talent gap question: how many PGs in the B1G would you consider equal to or better than Malcolm Hill as all-around players? Probably just Melo Trimble, right? Maybe not even. How many would you consider equal to or better than the projected sophomore version of JCL? I'd say Trimble, McIntosh, Sanders, for sure; possibly Lyle, Walton, Koenig, and Garner. Maybe Carr or Cassius Winston, but we won't know until we see them play. Three guys for sure and some maybes.

PG's I guess Trimble, even though he doesn't rebound like Malcolm. I suppose he isn't as consistent as Hill but otherwise there's really not many players at this level who are more productive or versatile/all-around good as Hill in general. JCL I don't know

 

[Obelix]

All this shows the irrelevancy of that "plateau". It's the side effect of the overall season, not a reason in itself.

Talking of the "extreme" examples only further makes the point. Teams that win 12+ conference games are good teams, they have good wins and are going to be playing in the NCAAs regardless. Same for teams that win 6 or fewer, they simply aren't good enough to make it. So we end up talking about the teams in the middle, and those "bubble" teams are going to be in the mix with all the other bubble teams from other conferences. So again (as I post every year), it makes conference record even more irrelevant because you're not even comparing the same conference!

The fact that most B1G teams get in when they have 11 or more wins is an interesting trivia point, not really significant by itself.

It's the myth that just won't die...

Not sure what you keep arguing about. My statement is that given this particular schedule, 11 wins is a pretty safe plateau or level or whatever you want to call it. This is my opinion. It does not mean that the NCAA committee guarantees making the tournament with 11 B1G wins or that the the NCAA has a threshold on 11 wins. The NCAA offers no guarantee even with 12 wins, there is no threshold on 12 vs 11 wins, unless the team wins the B1G tourney for an automatic (in which case B1G wins do not matter).

Again, given this schedule, I consider 11 the "safe" level. That is JMO. I consider the schedule favorable, it gives a good balance of opportunities for some wins against (expected) weaker teams (PSU/NU) but it avoids a lopsided weak schedule similar to tOSU last year where almost all wins can come against expected weaker teams. This has absolutely nothing with the committee or the NCAA offering an 11 win guarantee in the B1G.

And believing that 11 in this schedule is the safe level, does not mean that a) I believe that Illinois will indeed get 11 wins, or b) Illinois can't possibly get in the tournament with less than 11 wins.

 

[FatGreg]

Random note: people have been talking about Malcolm's opportunity to pass Dee this year and move into 3rd place all-time on the Illini scoring list. No one has mentioned that he has an outside chance to pass Kiwane Garris for second place: if (big if) Illinois wins two games in the B1G tournament and one game in the NCAA tournament, that should put us at 36 games. Malcolm would have to average 19.6 points to move into second behind Deon Thomas. Likely? No way. But still within the realm of possibility.

 

[Obelix]

Random note: people have been talking about Malcolm's opportunity to pass Dee this year and move into 3rd place all-time on the Illini scoring list. No one has mentioned that he has an outside chance to pass Kiwane Garris for second place: if (big if) Illinois wins two games in the B1G tournament and one game in the NCAA tournament, that should put us at 36 games. Malcolm would have to average 19.6 points to move into second behind Deon Thomas. Likely? No way. But still within the realm of possibility.

Not sure if it would be a good thing for Malcolm to average such high ppg. It would probably indicate too much dependency on his scoring. Hopefully, we can get more balanced scoring form the rest of the roster.

 

[OldGreg]

Not sure if it would be a good thing for Malcolm to average such high ppg. It would probably indicate too much dependency on his scoring. Hopefully, we can get more balanced scoring form the rest of the roster.

I do think that is a valid point but I also think that the offense has the potential to very potent, plus with the work Malcolm has put in this summer, it's not out of the realm of possibilty for us to average 85pts a game, Malc to get his 20 and that not be a problem at all.