Since 2000, our highest average PPG was 77.9. I think 85 is not going to quite happen this year.
Illini Basketball 2016-2017
- Status
Since 2000, our highest average PPG was 77.9. I think 85 is not going to quite happen this year.
That is too high. For example, no team in a major conference averaged that high, and even teams with high scoring offenses/fast paced styles (e.g. UNC) averaged less than that.
I thought last year there were a few teams, including UNC, and Indiana, just off top, that averaged right around there? Much more do able these days with freedom of movement and a shorter shot clock.
They did average more than 80, less than 85. But our style of play under Groce is not as fast, and current personnel not comparably as fast as those teams. For example, even if healthy, Abrams is not a PG who can push tempo as fast, and at C, Thorne can be a load in the low post, but not the slender/running type who will push tempo either.
I agree that our style may not allow us to go 85. Although we were the highest scoring team in the NCAA for a few weeks last year. -or was that the year before? I forget now- I do think Tracy can push tempo with the right guys around him. Which I think he has. But Thorne is definitely not an up and down guy. I dont care if we get to 85 but I would love for us to be at 80.
So "safe" means what? Can't tell from all the tap dancing going on here, but it doesn't seem to have much meaning. And there can't be any level of "safe" since we don't know how good any of these teams really are, nor what our non-con performance will be.
I agree, unless he goes all Buddy Hield as a senior and improves his efficiency tremendously. As a junior, Hield averaged 17.4 ppg and shot 41.2% overall and 35.9% from three. As a senior, he improved to 25.0, 50.1%, and 45.7%. I don't expect Malcolm to make that kind of leap, but stranger things have happened.
My best guess for Malcolm this year is a line something like 17.0 ppg, 6.5 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.7 blk, .445 fg%, .360 3pt%
I believe it was the year before when we started hot against lesser teams, scoring back-to-back 100+ against Coppin State and Austin Peay. But we progressively dropped down to below last year levels.
You are trying to be cute (i.e., tap dancing) but you are really beating a dead horse with repeated arguments against a pretty simple statement. But I'll answer anyway.
11 (and obviously 11+) wins against this schedule should indicate that we are a good team, with good wins, a tournament team, a team that we should feel very confident/safe to make the tournament. It is actually not much different than your own statement "teams that win 12+ conference games are good teams, they have good wins and are going to be playing in the NCAAs regardless," although less general, I am talking about this team and this schedule, a pretty favorable but not lopsided schedule. It does not mean a high seed, neither does it mean that there is an NCAA guaranteed/threshold (as there is not even at 12).
I have not seen the entire pre-conference schedule (other than what announced) but an Illini team with 11+ conference wins in this B1G schedule should have enough wins in pre-conference (do not expect miracle turnaround in B1G) and even if we happen to slip a game or two, there would be some benefit of doubt as a team not full strength early on (Abrams, Lucas, Thorne - not fully conditioned, Black suspended, Kipper out, etc.).
That's a great analysis. Even when healthy, I don't recall Tracy ever pushing the Tempo. And Thorne and Morgan, while a nice C duo, are most definitely not prone to playing fast.
I agree that most people doing a lazy evaluation will miss the intangibles like leadership like playing defense like experience.
As a Junior he started all 35 games and averaged 10.7 points and 3.2 apg and scored in double figures 20 times and was our leading scorer in 9 games.
He did it in big games to.
He wasnt just a stud against IPFW because he scored 25 against Indiana along with 7 rebounds (He tore up Yogi in hs).
He scored 17 on 8 of 12 shooting against Indiana in the other game against them. What I say about Yogi?
Made the game winning free throws with 4.6 seconds left against Mizzou. He has heart.
And against another tough apponent he had 15 points. That was Michigan state. In another game against MSU he had 12 points and 5 steals.
Even Minnesota wasnt a dog that year and TA was 8-8 from the free throw scored 13 points and had 6 assists.
He was a leader.
also, too he has had modern surgery. they probly put servos and little motors in his knees and foot. We a long way away from the old timey Tommy John surgery.
Forgive my hurried summary, you have the over/under at 10.5 conference wins (other factors consistent with that level) for tourney acceptance? Seems like a legitimate pre-season line.
Wow, again why all the hedging and dancing around? You think 11 wins means we're in the tournament, just spit it out.
It's not a metric that I look at when evaluating tournament chances, but many people still do.
While I think TA will be fine this year, there are a lot of cases of achilles injuries where the players don't come back the same as before. This includes players who have had "modern surgery." Kobe and Wesley Matthews come to mind.
OSU had a bad non-conference and the league wasn't as strong last year as 2012-13.
Wow, again why all the hedging and dancing around? You think 11 wins means we're in the tournament, just spit it out.
It's not a metric that I look at when evaluating tournament chances, but many people still do.
There is no hedging at all. You keep on arguing for the sake of arguing beating a simple point to death, from almost 40 posts ago. It is a simple and clear point, with absolutely no hedging.
Given this schedule, the team needs at least 11 wins to feel safe to make the tournament.
http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forums/showpost.php?p=1218783&postcount=233
Exactly. Unfortunately, achilles repair/recovery has not improved demonstrably in recent years the way ACL or Tommy John surgery have. It's not a blanket "modern medicine" thing in this case - achilles injuries are almost invariably career altering. Generally, all the efficiency statistics (PER, eFG%, true shooting %, FT attempts, etc.) drop precipitously. PER drops by 4.64 points on average (the difference between Anthony Davis and Paul Millsap, or Lebron James and Jonas Valanciunas based on this year's stats). This is nearly UNIVERSAL. Qualitatively, players coming back from achilles injuries show diminished short area quickness, which means they're taking lower percentage shots and struggling to defend on the perimeter.
I've said it on here before, but the statistics are pretty damning. I'd be less concerned if Tracy was a heady floor general with a great jump shot. Because he's (at least to this point in his career) a slashing guard with a shaky outside shot and limited feel for the game, I'm deeply concerned. We have to hope he's drastically retooled his game and/or he's a medical miracle (there is a precedent: Dominique Wilkins). Fingers crossed.
Plus there is a compounded effect from the ACL injury and the 2-year total inactivity from competitive basketball. I think Tracy will help, especially in leadership and intangibles, but I do not expect any miracles. I believe some of the expectations on this board are over-inflated.
How is this controversial?! I'm still surprised that this conversation became so heated. I understand that the committee looks at overall resume but unless we are a completely different team in the early season, we should feel really good about making the tourney with 11 wins in our conference with this schedule. I don't think it's crazy to assume that a decent run in conference is usually preceded by decent wins during the non conference slate. Our non conference schedule is going to give us plenty of opportunities to earn quality wins too. One can maybe argue that we don't really know the quality of the teams we're going to play but that's rubbish, we have 5-6 teams in the top 25 of most preseason polls. It's not like people are completely clueless on our quality of competition.
We can also put it this way, knowing that Illinois would win 11 conference games, who would bet $1000 on Illinois also ending up in the dance? Who wouldn't make that bet? Most would, because it's a safe bet. It's a way too early season prediction, they should never be taken too seriously anyway.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
What?! This is shocking to me! I feel shocked.
Well, we'll have to disagree on that.
It's not really controversial, just meaningless.
Our current roster for 2017 has more 4 star recruits than 3 star..
EDIT: looks like this was already known, not sure why it was tweeted as an update?
Other than Hill and JCL we don't have anyone that would start in the Big Ten.
Jon Rothstein @JonRothstein 3h3 hours ago
Illinois will host Northern Kentucky on November 13th in Champaign, source told @CBSSports.
Illinois will host Northern Kentucky on November 13th in Champaign, source told @CBSSports.
- Status