This sums up the team's prospects and explains why a lot of commentators are picking us to finish 10th/11th/12th. On this board, we know that Leron is a preternaturally gifted rebounder with an elite motor, but from the outside he looks like an early bust who failed to make a substantial impact as a freshman (outside of flagrant fouls and cheap shots) and has had nothing but injuries and legal trouble since.
In short, Leron isn't a safe bet. Neither is Thorne. We know that Thorne is a physical mismatch for every big man in the league, with his plus athleticism, NBA size, and nice motor. His type-1 diabetes limits his conditioning and makes it harder for him to recover from injuries. If you didn't actually watch Illinois last year in non-con (let's say your an OSU fan), you just know he's a big body who hasn't ever dominated, even at a lower level, and has never played much more than 20 mpg. He's also had two medical redshirts. If I saw 6'11, 270, limited minutes, and two medical redshirts sitting on an opposing team's roster, I wouldn't be scared. I'd assume the kid was an injury prone oaf who put up good rebounding numbers at Charlotte and in non-con last year because he's gigantic.
Because we have a close-up perspective on the Illini, we have a better sense of how solid the rotation of Black, Thorne, Finke, and Morgan could be at the 4/5. We know that Tracy's leadership is going to make a difference, there's good reason to believe Kipper Nichols is underrated, JCL could become a 1st team All-B1G guard...if you're just a fan or journalist looking at roster/record/stats, you'd have no reason to believe in this team. We know that a 12th place finish is possible, but about as likely as a 4th place finish. Ending up 5th or 6th is more than reasonable. The caveat is that every other fanbase feels the same way at this point. I'll bet even Rutgers is talking themselves into 6 conference wins and a 9th place finish.
