This sums up the team's prospects and explains why a lot of commentators are picking us to finish 10th/11th/12th. On this board, we know that Leron is a preternaturally gifted rebounder with an elite motor, but from the outside he looks like an early bust who failed to make a substantial impact as a freshman (outside of flagrant fouls and cheap shots) and has had nothing but injuries and legal trouble since.
In short, Leron isn't a safe bet. Neither is Thorne. We know that Thorne is a physical mismatch for every big man in the league, with his plus athleticism, NBA size, and nice motor. His type-1 diabetes limits his conditioning and makes it harder for him to recover from injuries. If you didn't actually watch Illinois last year in non-con (let's say your an OSU fan), you just know he's a big body who hasn't ever dominated, even at a lower level, and has never played much more than 20 mpg. He's also had two medical redshirts. If I saw 6'11, 270, limited minutes, and two medical redshirts sitting on an opposing team's roster, I wouldn't be scared. I'd assume the kid was an injury prone oaf who put up good rebounding numbers at Charlotte and in non-con last year because he's gigantic.
Because we have a close-up perspective on the Illini, we have a better sense of how solid the rotation of Black, Thorne, Finke, and Morgan could be at the 4/5. We know that Tracy's leadership is going to make a difference, there's good reason to believe Kipper Nichols is underrated, JCL could become a 1st team All-B1G guard...if you're just a fan or journalist looking at roster/record/stats, you'd have no reason to believe in this team. We know that a 12th place finish is possible, but about as likely as a 4th place finish. Ending up 5th or 6th is more than reasonable. The caveat is that every other fanbase feels the same way at this point. I'll bet even Rutgers is talking themselves into 6 conference wins and a 9th place finish.
Even knowing all those things though, adding who we added and losing who we lost, are we likely to be 10-15 ppg better than last year?
because we lost Big Ten games by:
34
31
27
26
25
12
11
10
9
8
7
5
2
2
Everyone is hyped about JCL. He is awesome dont get me wrong. But with No KNunn to guard, he is going to get every team's best perimeter defender. I expect some dropoff, unless Abrams, AJ, or one of the New Guards really offers another consistent perimeter threat.
I think the power of the Black Morgan Finke trio is the X factor. If we can run 4 viable frontcourt players with different strengths out there in waves if they can shore up the interior defense which was non-existent, rebound and get some easier baskets, there's a chance we compete in the middle or even upper middle of the pack again. If not its hard to see JCL Hill and the rest of our backcourt carrying us all the way night in and night out.