2017 Coaching Carousel

[Give it to Greene]

As a lifelong fan over 50, I want Coach Groce to succeed. My initial reaction to him was that he was "all hat and no cattle"...talked in cliches, slightly affected. I never found him to be as authentic as the rest of the posters on message boards. Now, full disclosure, I supported Coach Weber until the final year when it was clear he has lost the program. But that finals run earned him a long rope for me.

After Coach Groce got them within an eyelash of the S16 in his first season, I was ready to eat crow. Since that season, my initial reaction has returned to define him. I am not convinced he has the demeanor nor acumen to be an effective Division I coach.

However, I would support him getting another year with the 2017 recruits provided two things occur:

1) the wheels don't completely come off of this team and we show signs of improving.
2) Coach Groce makes changes to his staff, specifically bringing in a seasoned X and O's senior assistant who can game plan and manage substitution patterns.

In my heart of hearts, I don't think Coach Groce will succeed even with the incoming class and new staff members. But, I support giving it a shot.

This kind of scenario would be disastrous for Illinois IMHO.... What this would do, would give the homers another chance to say keep him longer (if he continues to lose) because they'd use the staff change to say he hasn't had the chance to implement all the changes... NO.... NO.... NO...
Lets NOT follow this path...

 

[mattcoldagelli]

Poorly researched IMO.

It wasn't a researched article. He talked to the two coaches who just coached the game.

 

[Illiniguy13]

What does that mean record/performance wise?

Personally, if Groce makes the NIT, I think he survives, although I have lost confidence that he is the long term solution. Having said that, I have not seen anything from this team thus far that makes me believe that we make the NIT.

If Groce takes this team to the NIT & survives( I don't know if we'd ever see our fanbase more up in arms, and I'm already cringing thinking how I'd explain that to people regardless of valid reasoning), is it a matter of Whitman giving Groce a chance with the 17s or not yet having a quality replacement?

 

[Give it to Greene]

We keep talking about Groce, but there is an experience team that needs to do some soul searching. I re-watched the game and saw players not helping on defense. It was more important for their player not to score than to rotate over and stop the player with the ball scoring. Saw this multiple times, and being "slow" wouldn't explain it. They received a beat down and I believe those players who will fight back are the one who will see more time.

Although we do not have great talent (IMO), I think it's all on JG....
It's year 5 of his program. He selected these players (I know, not TA), He's had 4+ years to teach them his scheme's. He's had 4+ years to get them to buy-in to his system.
But in year 5, they either a) still haven't bought in, or b) aren't good enough to understand what he wants and can't buy-in, or c) have tuned him out.... JMHO...

 

[EJ33]

It is not really a groundbreaking point to give Lucas more minutes than Tate, the point could be made without watching any of the Illini games, even in pre-season.

We agree and that's precisely the point here. Groce didn't see the big picture with Tate vs. Lucas when it was obvious. Perhaps because he was too busy examining his practice stats and making things complicated for his players.

 

[MountainmanMitch]

What does that mean record/performance wise?

Personally, if Groce makes the NIT, I think he survives, although I have lost confidence that he is the long term solution. Having said that, I have not seen anything from this team thus far that makes me believe that we make the NIT.

Obelix, I really enjoy your posts.

That's a great question. At the beginning of the season, it was the Show or bust for me. Not now. NIT for sure. More than the post season, for me it is about some display of will, chemistry, desire. Being competitive against every team, every night. Showing signs of coaching on both ends of the court. Seeing elements among those team members who will return next year that gets us fans excited (TJL, DJ, LB, AJ, MF). IMO, that is a tall order given the current results. AND, I would still want a staff change.

 

[MountainmanMitch]

This kind of scenario would be disastrous for Illinois IMHO.... What this would do, would give the homers another chance to say keep him longer (if he continues to lose) because they'd use the staff change to say he hasn't had the chance to implement all the changes... NO.... NO.... NO...
Lets NOT follow this path...

I respectfully disagree. IF...he keeps the team competitive in 2016 (above .500 and in the NIT minimally) and makes a staff change for 2017, he still has to get the team in the tourney the next year. If he doesn't, there is no excuse that will keep his job. Worst case scenario is we kicked the coaching change down the road one year, but we kept the top 15 recruiting class.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Personally, if Groce makes the NIT, I think he survives, although I have lost confidence that he is the long term solution.

Which is to say, you believe Whitman is going to make the wrong decision.

I don't agree.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

This kind of scenario would be disastrous for Illinois IMHO.... What this would do, would give the homers another chance to say keep him longer (if he continues to lose) because they'd use the staff change to say he hasn't had the chance to implement all the changes... NO.... NO.... NO...
Lets NOT follow this path...

To be very frank, this kind of thinking is only in the bloodstream on this board because the collapse of our program has left only Pollyannas and recruitniks paying attention. (Plus sickos like myself, I guess)

The people that just aren't bothering anymore are going to speak louder with their empty seats than any of our posts will.

 

[Illiniguy13]

The AD carasoul

The list of Power 5 schools that haven't had at least one Sweet 16 basketball season or one 8-win fb season since '09: Illinois & Wake Forest


Carousel** oops

 

[Illinoy]

recruiting development

My problem really hasn't been recruiting in the Groce era and even when we don't get our plan A guys, most would concede that Groce has been great as a talent evaluator. Even the guys we've secured had garnered high major talent across the country. The one consistent denominator is our lack on skill development. When I look at the trajectory of our misses from D Jack, Juwan Evans, Tyler Ennis, Monte Morris, Trevon Bluiett, and even Scoochie Smith have out turned out to be strong contributors to successful programs. Those guys ranged in rankings from RSCI 20-110 (give or take). It's not like we haven't gotten that before. When I look at our guys, I can't say anyone has gotten any better skill-wise. Leron looks to be a bit bouncier this season and it's helped as a rim protector but you shouldn't depend upon a 6'7" guy as your best rim protector. I can't say any guard is that much better handling the ball or even making decisions. No post player is that much more of a prolific scorer. Maverick made strides but I think that's more aligned with just being comfortable. He's still a huge defensive liability. Most importantly, our defensive scheme is terrible. It seems everyone is a terrible off-ball defender which makes no sense because that is about instruction vs natural ability to move laterally.

I have to wonder if other recruits are considering their skill development into their decisions. It's one thing to be able to sell the nba to players , but it's another thing to have a team full of one-dimensional guys that actually have potential to perform better.

 

[Obelix]

It wasn't a researched article. He talked to the two coaches who just coached the game.

Maybe researched is not the right word, but Robert should have checked Hamilton's record and current streak of not making the NCAA, if he did not know already. It is OK to say that Groce is too myopic/micro looking at the short term and playing Tate (although in this case I do not see the difference in micro/macro) versus a broader more successful macro approach of another coach. But when that coach has been even less effective, his point loses its value.

Personally, as I said before, I do not see the point. Groce IMO has to take a micro view, he can't risk losing any games. It is OK to say that Tate gives you a better chance winning in the short term but you sacrifice your performance in March, but in this case (Tate/TJL) I do not believe that is true.

 

[StateFarmCenter]

A "top 15 class" is really REALLY not worth keeping a deadman walking coach for. I can't stress this enough. Looks at guys like Paul Hewitt or Josh Pastner, coaches who were recruiting at a higher level than what Groce can bring in and yet it still wasn't worth it to keep them around. And a top 15 class really isn't all that special to Illinois. 3 of 4 Weber's last four classes were that. With how talent rich the state is, it should be relatively normal. The next coach should be expected to do it, perhaps after a couple rebuilding seasons.

Also needs to be pointed out again, our roster still projects to be worse next year than this year's expected to miss the tournament team.

 

[Illinoy]

A "top 15 class" is really REALLY not worth keeping a deadman walking coach for. I can't stress this enough. Looks at guys like Paul Hewitt or Josh Pastner, coaches who were recruiting at a higher level than what Groce can bring in and yet it still wasn't worth it to keep them around. And a top 15 class really isn't all that special to Illinois. 3 of 4 Weber's last four classes were that. With how talent rich the state is, it should be relatively normal. The next coach should be expected to do it, perhaps after a couple rebuilding seasons.

Also needs to be pointed out again, our roster still projects to be worse next year than this year's expected to miss the tournament team.

I'd argue otherwise with this considering this class can have 4-6 players. Even as is, it might be worth it to leave the next guy with some assets especially considering they would be way behind in terms of traction for recruiting the class of '17 and '18. Also, it would give them an incentive to play the younger recruits since they're in a rebuilding mode.

 

[MountainmanMitch]

A "top 15 class" is really REALLY not worth keeping a deadman walking coach for. I can't stress this enough. Looks at guys like Paul Hewitt or Josh Pastner, coaches who were recruiting at a higher level than what Groce can bring in and yet it still wasn't worth it to keep them around. And a top 15 class really isn't all that special to Illinois. 3 of 4 Weber's last four classes were that. With how talent rich the state is, it should be relatively normal. The next coach should be expected to do it, perhaps after a couple rebuilding seasons.

Also needs to be pointed out again, our roster still projects to be worse next year than this year's expected to miss the tournament team.

All true, and as I pointed out, I am not on the Groce bandwagon. But, it would be nice if we could succeed without overhauling the program at the head coach level. While I am not optimistic, I am willing to extend one last chance conditional on my two points.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

A "top 15 class" is really REALLY not worth keeping a deadman walking coach for. I can't stress this enough. Looks at guys like Paul Hewitt or Josh Pastner, coaches who were recruiting at a higher level than what Groce can bring in and yet it still wasn't worth it to keep them around. And a top 15 class really isn't all that special to Illinois. 3 of 4 Weber's last four classes were that. With how talent rich the state is, it should be relatively normal. The next coach should be expected to do it, perhaps after a couple rebuilding seasons.

Also needs to be pointed out again, our roster still projects to be worse next year than this year's expected to miss the tournament team.

1000% agree, except for the bolded. Coaches have instant recruiting impacts all the time. And not just grand slam blue blood hires either.

Put it this way: we have no reason to fear our chances at elite 2018 kids goes down by firing Groce, and every reason to hope our chances might go up.

 

[Newman]

Which is to say, you believe Whitman is going to make the wrong decision.

I don't agree.

It's about damage control IMO. We have a big recruiting class, and still have a couple of scholarships to fill. If we fire Groce after this year, there's a risk that the some of the recruits decide to get out of the LOI(which is quite easy now), in addition to some players transferring out. It's certainly possible that a good coach can keep the class intact but if that doesn't work, we'd be looking at a major rebuild. It wouldn't be the worst idea to keep Groce one more year and let the 2017 class enroll and reduce the chance of losing them. Obelix probably has a different reasoning but that's my take on why Whitman would wait a year. On the other hand, I think fans could stomach some really bad basketball for a season or two if we get a new coach as long as they see some glances of solid coaching despite a depleted roster.

There may be a clear answer about Groce not being the guy for the job but there isn't a clear answer on how we can best set up a new coach for success at Illinois. If we can't get a homerun hire this next offseason, then I would probably lean towards keeping Groce for a year.

 

[Obelix]

If Groce takes this team to the NIT & survives( I don't know if we'd ever see our fanbase more up in arms, and I'm already cringing thinking how I'd explain that to people regardless of valid reasoning), is it a matter of Whitman giving Groce a chance with the 17s or not yet having a quality replacement?

More the first than the second. I think JW likes Groce and will not risk the 2017 class (especially Tilmon). He will justify NIT as improvement. That is my guess.

As said in previous posts, I believe people exaggerate the ability of schools to secure a coach before firing your current one. Unless your new coach is out of a job already, it is extremely difficult to secure a coach from another school no matter whether you send feelers or not. If that was easy, schools with more connections and larger budget than Illinois (e.g., UCLA, Oregon, Oklahoma State, etc.) would have all avoided embarrassing searches in the past.

 

[Obelix]

It's about damage control IMO. We have a big recruiting class, and still have a couple of scholarships to fill. If we fire Groce after this year, there's a risk that the some of the recruits decide to get out of the LOI(which is quite easy now), in addition to some players transferring out. It's certainly possible that a good coach can keep the class intact but if that doesn't work, we'd be looking at a major rebuild. It wouldn't be the worst idea to keep Groce one more year and let the 2017 class enroll and reduce the chance of losing them. Obelix probably has a different reasoning but that's my take on why Whitman would wait a year. On the other hand, I think fans could stomach some really bad basketball for a season or two if we get a new coach as long as they see some glances of solid coaching despite a depleted roster.

As per my post above, written while you were posting this, my reasoning is not much different.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

It's about damage control IMO. We have a big recruiting class, and still have a couple of scholarships to fill. If we fire Groce after this year, there's a risk that the some of the recruits decide to get out of the LOI(which is quite easy now), in addition to some players transferring out. It's certainly possible that a good coach can keep the class intact but if that doesn't work, we'd be looking at a major rebuild. It wouldn't be the worst idea to keep Groce one more year and let the 2017 class enroll and reduce the chance of losing them.

So, we're looking at a major rebuild because players might transfer, better to run it back another year and then fire Groce because.......then the players won't transfer?

This is not complicated. If what we've seen the past week is what's coming, Groce is a sunk cost. Every season he continues in the job is another year in which the fan interest and image of the program swirls further towards the drain.

It feels like clever inside-baseball three dimensional chess to argue against the dumb message board pitchfork mob and for a scheme to "trap" the most talent in the program. It's not. Respectfully, you're only outthinking yourself.

 

[Obelix]

So, we're looking at a major rebuild because players might transfer, better to run it back another year and then fire Groce because.......then the players won't transfer?

This is not complicated. If what we've seen the past week is what's coming, Groce is a sunk cost. Every season he continues in the job is another year in which the fan interest and image of the program swirls further towards the drain.

It feels like clever inside-baseball three dimensional chess to argue against the dumb message board pitchfork mob and for a scheme to "trap" the most talent in the program. It's not. Respectfully, you're only outthinking yourself.

You still try too hard to argue "should versus shouldn't."

Saying that JW likes Groce and may not be willing to risk the 2017 class, IF Groce makes the NIT, is not so far fetched.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

You still try too hard to argue "should versus shouldn't."

Saying that JW likes Groce and may be willing to risk the 2017 class, IF Groce makes the NIT, is not so far fetched.

If it's "will versus won't" I will point to the lack of a contract extension last offseason and the tidal wave of empty seats and rest my case.

 

[Obelix]

If it's "will versus won't" I will point to the lack of a contract extension last offseason and the tidal wave of empty seats and rest my case.

You are not JW so it is not "will versus won't."

It is what your belief is of what JW may do, which we'll likely never find out.

 

[blmillini]

A "top 15 class" is really REALLY not worth keeping a deadman walking coach for. I can't stress this enough. Looks at guys like Paul Hewitt or Josh Pastner, coaches who were recruiting at a higher level than what Groce can bring in and yet it still wasn't worth it to keep them around. And a top 15 class really isn't all that special to Illinois. 3 of 4 Weber's last four classes were that. With how talent rich the state is, it should be relatively normal. The next coach should be expected to do it, perhaps after a couple rebuilding seasons.

Also needs to be pointed out again, our roster still projects to be worse next year than this year's expected to miss the tournament team.

I found it hard to believe that Weber had top 15 classes in 3 of this last 4 years so I looked it up. Although I did not necessarily see that, it was surprising to me to find that Groce's recruiting doesn't appear to have been any better than Weber's, yet we give Groce credit for being a great recruiter and always bashed Weber for being unable to recruit.

 

[illinoisfan11]

If it's "will versus won't" I will point to the lack of a contract extension last offseason and the tidal wave of empty seats and rest my case.

I totally agree. I don't think Whitman lets the program toil in mediocrity over one recruiting class when the results on the court are this bad. There were rumors last Final Four that Whitman was there having "back channel discussions" with some potential coaching options. So if he was considering making a change after last season, he's certainly got to be looking at making one after the results so far this season.