2017 Coaching Carousel

[jonnymo]

MT jagoff stories...haha. Probably deserves its own thread.

Fully agree

 

[Second and Chalmers]

As for MT..... He was so scared and incapable of making coaching hires that he exclusively used hiring firms. It got to the point that the news gazette and Chicago papers did write ups on the obscene amount of money he was spending on these "search firms". So not only was he not smart enough he was to fearful to make coaching hires on his own.

Search firms are a big fad of the athletics administration community. It's not like that was unique to MT, that's what everyone's been doing (though it is becoming less popular as the problems we experienced were not unique either).

MT was a suit, and he knew he was a suit. It's not a sign of weakness that he sought outside voices for such important decisions. And no search firm told him to choose Tim Beckman over Pat Narduzzi, a coach he had personally worked with and knew was head coaching material. That decision was MT's alone.

We have a lot to thank MT for, some of the things he did to modernize and professionalize the DIA will pay dividends for years. Someone had to absorb the inevitable arrows from de-Guentherizing the department. But no one survives a decision like Tim Beckman.

JW on the other hand. I've been told by a person that knows him personally from his playing days here, that since his first AD gig he always has coaching lists that he has on every sport. He's always adding and deleting from them. So yes he currently has a list of potential golf coaches and football coaches even though those spots are current safe spots.

Good to hear. Fluency with the coaching market is absolutely a prerequisite for doing a good job.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Nagy's ties to Illinois aren't any factor in my consideration (in fact, wasn't aware of them until you mentioned it... I'm 30 so wasn't really aware of assistant coaches in the Henson era.) Nor am I really familiar with him as a person or the system he runs. I'm happy to be educated. I was making my assessment based purely off of his record at SDSU: took the school from Div II, to Div I, from bottom of its league, to finishing first in the conference and making the NCAA tournament consistently. That says "program builder" to me.

I don't mean to accuse you of bias. Obviously Nagy has been mentioned in these threads over the years and he did a great job at SDSU, but sustained success at low-majors isn't all that hard to find. Greg Kampe at Oakland, Randy Rahe at Weber State, Scott Sutton at Oral Roberts, those dudes aren't that hard to find.

Also, I think it's worth noting, we're not really looking for a "program builder" in the sense you're saying. Not that those skills aren't translatable, but Illinois is an underperforming power program with the talent, facilities, resources and expectations of a power program. We're not Rutgers.

So while those lean years doing the groundwork of transforming SDSU from an out-of-their-league minnow to an established, successful D1 team certainly show Nagy to be a good coach, from a resume for the Illinois job perspective, I'd be more impressed by a stint as an assistant at a successful power program learning how things are done in the big time.

Eric Musselman as a college head coach: 1.5 seasons, not much that you can say about his ability to build a program

I think this shows the weakness of looking at "program building" as a prerequisite. Musselman has had two seperate stints as an NBA head coach, he's been a D-League head coach, he's been head coach of multiple international teams, there is zero question of his basketball chops and he has a reputation as an offensive savant.

And while his track record at Nevada isn't long, what he's done is very impressive, taking over a 9-22 team and turning them into 24-14 and a winning record in a tough conference. That's what we're looking for.

Kevin Keatts as a college head coach: 2.5 seasons, not a ton of track record but looks very promising (went from bottom of conference to top of conference and NCAAs), maybe I underrated him; not familiar with how he did it (lucky/riding one good player?)

I've actually done a bit of research here. UNC Wilmington's last 3 teams under Buzz Peterson (former HC at Tennessee and many other places, not a joke of a coach) went 10-20 (5-13), 10-20 (5-13), and then 9-23 (3-13). Keatts came in and with the leftover roster won the conference title. And it has only gone uphill from there. You just do not see that. Add in the background as a prep school coach and and assistant coach at Louisville when they were national champions and it is an excellent, excellent resume. If not us, he will be a Power Five coach somewhere next year. He'd be a grand slam for Mizzou.

Will Wade as a college head coach: 3.5 seasons, improved Chattanooga from 8-10 conf to 12-4 and then 15-3, but did not win conference or make NCAAs; inherited a good VCU program; promising but TBD if he can maintain momentum

Yeah, he's young and doesn't have a ton of experience, but instant positive impact at two stops isn't a resume you see every day. Certainly one worth looking at.

Not saying any of these guys are *bad* choices but don't think they are slam dunk candidates either. I'd say Bruce Weber had a better resume than Musselman, Keatts or Wade and Groce's (which has been lamented a number of times) record at Ohio was pretty comparable.

Weber had an excellent resume, is a very good basketball coach, and would still be here if he wasn't his own worst enemy.

There's no comparison with Groce. Ohio was 40-29 the four years before Groce in the MAC, with a winning record all four years. Groce went 34-30. That's everything you're not looking for. That's a flashing red sign saying "NOT A DIFFERENCE MAKER".

 

[HeartofaChampion]

Was at the AH tonight.

** My cousin is a big donor, and we hung out with other donors before and after the game. Most of the donors I talked to are not happy with the state or direction of the program or with JG in particular. Of the dozen or so donors I spoke with, including my cousin, I'd say 10 or 11 want JG replaced if we don't make the Dance this year, and several are big-$$ donors according to my cousin who will forcefully make their unhappiness known (and a few who already have) to JW. To say the heat is on JG is an understatement.

I talked at length with my cousin this afternoon before the game. My cousin said he has talked briefly with JW 3-4 times at different functions. At the most recent luncheon he attended, he asked JW in a 1 on 1 conversation if he was truly happy with the coaching staff's work over the last 4 1/2 years, not expecting an open answer. JW responded by saying he wasn't but that he wanted to give them the full season to show what they could do with a fully stocked, veteran roster. Eye-opening answer for sure.

 

[ballislife17]

** My cousin is a big donor, and we hung out with other donors before and after the game. Most of the donors I talked to are not happy with the state or direction of the program or with JG in particular. Of the dozen or so donors I spoke with, including my cousin, I'd say 10 or 11 want JG replaced if we don't make the Dance this year, and several are big-$$ donors according to my cousin who will forcefully make their unhappiness known (and a few who already have) to JW. To say the heat is on JG is an understatement.

I talked at length with my cousin this afternoon before the game. My cousin said he has talked briefly with JW 3-4 times at different functions. At the most recent luncheon he attended, he asked JW in a 1 on 1 conversation if he was truly happy with the coaching staff's work over the last 4 1/2 years, not expecting an open answer. JW responded by saying he wasn't but that he wanted to give them the full season to show what they could do with a fully stocked, veteran roster. Eye-opening answer for sure.

Wow, this is honestly some of the best info I have ever seen on this board assuming it is true.

Did any of the donors mention their thoughts on potentially losing key recruits if Groce were to go? I guess I'm wondering if they are even remotely worried about that whether they should be or not.

 

[radiodj]

Wow, this is honestly some of the best info I have ever seen on this board assuming it is true.

Did any of the donors mention their thoughts on potentially losing key recruits if Groce were to go? I guess I'm wondering if they are even remotely worried about that whether they should be or not.

HOC's info has always been top notch on this board, and myself and others miss the days he would post more often. If he says it, I'd take it pretty much as gospel.

 

[illynifan34]

Was at the AH tonight.

** My cousin is a big donor, and we hung out with other donors before and after the game. Most of the donors I talked to are not happy with the state or direction of the program or with JG in particular. Of the dozen or so donors I spoke with, including my cousin, I'd say 10 or 11 want JG replaced if we don't make the Dance this year, and several are big-$$ donors according to my cousin who will forcefully make their unhappiness known (and a few who already have) to JW. To say the heat is on JG is an understatement.

I talked at length with my cousin this afternoon before the game. My cousin said he has talked briefly with JW 3-4 times at different functions. At the most recent luncheon he attended, he asked JW in a 1 on 1 conversation if he was truly happy with the coaching staff's work over the last 4 1/2 years, not expecting an open answer. JW responded by saying he wasn't but that he wanted to give them the full season to show what they could do with a fully stocked, veteran roster. Eye-opening answer for sure.

Thanks HoC, I hope all is well for you.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Of the dozen or so donors I spoke with, including my cousin, I'd say 10 or 11 want JG replaced if we don't make the Dance this year, and several are big-$$ donors according to my cousin who will forcefully make their unhappiness known (and a few who already have) to JW.

Our First Four loss is the biggest lock in the history of the world.

 

[EJ33]

There's no comparison with Groce. Ohio was 40-29 the four years before Groce in the MAC, with a winning record all four years. Groce went 34-30. That's everything you're not looking for. That's a flashing red sign saying "NOT A DIFFERENCE MAKER".

The biggest indictment of Groce's coaching ability is that he achieved 34-30 with the most talented roster in the MAC (just look at his recruiting class rankings).

 

[Joel Goodson]

Was at the AH tonight.

** My cousin is a big donor, and we hung out with other donors before and after the game. Most of the donors I talked to are not happy with the state or direction of the program or with JG in particular. Of the dozen or so donors I spoke with, including my cousin, I'd say 10 or 11 want JG replaced if we don't make the Dance this year, and several are big-$$ donors according to my cousin who will forcefully make their unhappiness known (and a few who already have) to JW. To say the heat is on JG is an understatement.

I talked at length with my cousin this afternoon before the game. My cousin said he has talked briefly with JW 3-4 times at different functions. At the most recent luncheon he attended, he asked JW in a 1 on 1 conversation if he was truly happy with the coaching staff's work over the last 4 1/2 years, not expecting an open answer. JW responded by saying he wasn't but that he wanted to give them the full season to show what they could do with a fully stocked, veteran roster. Eye-opening answer for sure.

Excellent info. Thanks for sharing.

As to Whitman, spot on response.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Take a look at these KenPom trends:

Ohio before Groce
2005 - 85
2006 - 109
2007 - 125
2008 - 95

Ohio under Groce
2009 - 169
2010 - 94
2011 - 150
2012 - 57

UNCW before Keatts
2009 - 305
2010 - 214
2011 - 203
2012 - 238
2013 - 287
2014 - 280

UNCW under Keatts
2015 - 174
2016 - 83
2017 - 50

 

[kuhl84]

Take a look at these KenPom trends:

Ohio before Groce
2005 - 85
2006 - 109
2007 - 125
2008 - 95

Ohio under Groce
2009 - 169
2010 - 94
2011 - 150
2012 - 57

UNCW before Keatts
2009 - 305
2010 - 214
2011 - 203
2012 - 238
2013 - 287
2014 - 280

UNCW under Keatts
2015 - 174
2016 - 83
2017 - 50

That's an interesting metric to use. Eliminates lots of bias. I like it.

 

[homesickalien]

Take a look at these KenPom trends:

Ohio before Groce
2005 - 85
2006 - 109
2007 - 125
2008 - 95

Ohio under Groce
2009 - 169
2010 - 94
2011 - 150
2012 - 57

UNCW before Keatts
2009 - 305
2010 - 214
2011 - 203
2012 - 238
2013 - 287
2014 - 280

UNCW under Keatts
2015 - 174
2016 - 83
2017 - 50

Great post.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Now that everyone is all impressed, a cautionary note about over-relying on that sort of analysis.

F/+ rankings (which will do as KenPom for football)

Toledo before Tim Beckman
2006 - 100
2007 - 104
2008 - 105

Toledo under Tim Beckman
2009 - 106
2010 - 76
2011 - 17

It's hard, it's complicated, and there are no guarantees. That's what makes it fun! (But less fun when it's your team on the carousel)

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I'd say the reason for Toledo's success was more Matt Campbell (considering how well he did after Beckman left) so even though Beckman instilled a certain culture, Campbell made the F/+ rankings look better.

Beckman is also the guy who plucked Campbell out of obscurity to make him OC at age 30.

A telling factor against Groce is that even WHEN he got his scoring PG threat in DJ Cooper he still only managed a ranking of 57.

57 is damn good for a MAC school, if not exactly as good as they were heralded after their NCAA tournament performance.

But I need to push back for the millionth time against the legend of DJ Cooper. He made a big improvement his senior year after Groce left, but on that Sweet Sixteen team he was a chuck-happy inefficient turnover machine. I know, I watched a bunch of their games on ESPN3 after we hired Groce. Walter Offutt's shooting and defense is what made that team go.

And that kinda speaks to what you're saying. His Ohio State background allowed him to just find a 4-star transfer in Offutt under the couch cushions and push his team to a different level for that one year. That's not something that translates to the next level.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I wonder how tOSUs Kenpom looks ever since Groce left and what we would think that says about Matta.

Not sure what you mean by that, but here goes:

tOSU with Groce
2005 - 30
2006 - 14
2007 - 3
2008 - 31

tOSU post Groce
2009 - 34
2010 - 7
2011 - 1
2012 - 2
2013 - 7

 

[Obelix]

Was at the AH tonight.

** My cousin is a big donor, and we hung out with other donors before and after the game. Most of the donors I talked to are not happy with the state or direction of the program or with JG in particular. Of the dozen or so donors I spoke with, including my cousin, I'd say 10 or 11 want JG replaced if we don't make the Dance this year, and several are big-$$ donors according to my cousin who will forcefully make their unhappiness known (and a few who already have) to JW. To say the heat is on JG is an understatement.

I talked at length with my cousin this afternoon before the game. My cousin said he has talked briefly with JW 3-4 times at different functions. At the most recent luncheon he attended, he asked JW in a 1 on 1 conversation if he was truly happy with the coaching staff's work over the last 4 1/2 years, not expecting an open answer. JW responded by saying he wasn't but that he wanted to give them the full season to show what they could do with a fully stocked, veteran roster. Eye-opening answer for sure.

I do not know your cousin (his perspective is definitely well appreciated) but I know quite a few people in the Athletic Department and some of the donors as well. I have no idea what decision JW will take, but I can definitely confirm that JW really thinks highly of Groce, it is not a pretend or marketing like, it is a genuine very strong respect. Whitman has also been able to secure the support of some influential donors on his decisions (not just specific decisions).

This season is critical, but I am still not sure if Groce misses the dance, but makes the NIT, that Whitman will make change. I can't say that he won't, but I have some serious doubts. And before people start with the "NIT means nothing, nobody watches, etc." it has nothing to do with the value of NIT per se, but the fact that making the NIT means that Groce will be able to have a team that will be on the bubble, having a season around the .500 or slightly better. Combining that with Whitman's strong respect for Groce, I am just not sure he will make a change.

We may or may never find out... making the NIT is not a given at this point.

 

[Golfer63]

Not sure what you mean by that, but here goes:

tOSU with Groce
2005 - 30
2006 - 14
2007 - 3
2008 - 31

tOSU post Groce
2009 - 34
2010 - 7
2011 - 1
2012 - 2
2013 - 7

Keep in mind that Groce recruited the class of Sullinger, Thomas, Craft, etc. Another way of looking at it is how come tOSU has dropped off so badly the last few years? Why had their recruiting dropped off? If we do end up firing Groce, I wouldn't put it past tOSU to make him a huge offer to come back as an assistant.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Keep in mind that Groce recruited the class of Sullinger, Thomas, Craft, etc. Another way of looking at it is how come tOSU has dropped off so badly the last few years? Why had their recruiting dropped off? If we do end up firing Groce, I wouldn't put it past tOSU to make him a huge offer to come back as an assistant.

Not sure you can give Groce full credit for every recruit Ohio St landed while he was there. Sullinger was a legacy recruit, for example. And their recruiting hasn't dropped off, they've continued to land plenty of 4/5 star kids.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I do not know your cousin (his perspective is definitely well appreciated) but I know quite a few people in the Athletic Department and some of the donors as well. I have no idea what decision JW will take, but I can definitely confirm that JW really thinks highly of Groce, it is not a pretend or marketing like, it is a genuine very strong respect. Whitman has also been able to secure the support of some influential donors on his decisions (not just specific decisions).

This season is critical, but I am still not sure if Groce misses the dance, but makes the NIT, that Whitman will make change. I can't say that he won't, but I have some serious doubts. And before people start with the "NIT means nothing, nobody watches, etc." it has nothing to do with the value of NIT per se, but the fact that making the NIT means that Groce will be able to have a team that will be on the bubble, having a season around the .500 or slightly better. Combining that with Whitman's strong respect for Groce, I am just not sure he will make a change.

We may or may never find out... making the NIT is not a given at this point.

You don't have to be a bubble team to make the NIT.

 

[homesickalien]

I do not know your cousin (his perspective is definitely well appreciated) but I know quite a few people in the Athletic Department and some of the donors as well. I have no idea what decision JW will take, but I can definitely confirm that JW really thinks highly of Groce, it is not a pretend or marketing like, it is a genuine very strong respect. Whitman has also been able to secure the support of some influential donors on his decisions (not just specific decisions).

This season is critical, but I am still not sure if Groce misses the dance, but makes the NIT, that Whitman will make change. I can't say that he won't, but I have some serious doubts. And before people start with the "NIT means nothing, nobody watches, etc." it has nothing to do with the value of NIT per se, but the fact that making the NIT means that Groce will be able to have a team that will be on the bubble, having a season around the .500 or slightly better. Combining that with Whitman's strong respect for Groce, I am just not sure he will make a change.

We may or may never find out... making the NIT is not a given at this point.

If this happens this will be the first move by Whitman that I and I'm sure a lot of people will not be happy with. I think Whitman is smarter than this. You can't keep a person just because you like or respect them if the results aren't there.

We still have a lot of season left so we'll see where the team ends up. If this team makes the tournament and Groce stays I'd still like to see a shakeup on the staff. I just hope this doesn't turn into a Weber situation where Groce does just enough to stay, but in reality he's really not the answer.

 

[Obelix]

You don't have to be a bubble team to make the NIT.

NIT has become tougher to get into lately, even the Groce teams that made NIT were bubble teams. With the inclusion of conference champions that do not make the NCAA, it would be very difficult for the Illini to make NIT without being on or close to the bubble by analysts. There is no official bubble, but it has to be a pretty good team, better IMO than what we have shown so far.

 

[CAHALL15]

Gregg Marshall at Wichita State KenPom ratings:

2016: 13
2015: 13
2014: 6
2013: 17
2012: 11
2011: 27
2010: 64

Archie Miller and Dayton:

2016: 59
2015: 42
2014: 42
2013: 67
2012: 69
2011: 97 (his 1st year)

 

[WiscIllini]

NIT has become tougher to get into lately, even the Groce teams that made NIT were bubble teams. With the inclusion of conference champions that do not make the NCAA, it would be very difficult for the Illini to make NIT without being on or close to the bubble by analysts. There is no official bubble, but it has to be a pretty good team, better IMO than what we have shown so far.

You mean like when we were a 2 seed in 2014? Not that it's worth bragging about, but I just wanted to make sure we had the facts.

 

[Tevo]

Take a look at these KenPom trends:

Ohio before Groce
2005 - 85
2006 - 109
2007 - 125
2008 - 95

Ohio under Groce
2009 - 169
2010 - 94
2011 - 150
2012 - 57

UNCW before Keatts
2009 - 305
2010 - 214
2011 - 203
2012 - 238
2013 - 287
2014 - 280

UNCW under Keatts
2015 - 174
2016 - 83
2017 - 50

Louisville connections or not, Keatts appears to be able to coach. He's an interesting option to me.