2017 Coaching Carousel

[The Pontiff]

Yup. Keatts profiles as a good recruiter like Groce did, but the same degree of uncertainty applies.

However Groce's resume showed him to be not a difference maker as a coach of the talent he acquired whereas Keatts could hardly have done any more in his brief tenure to demonstrate the impact of his coaching, even with previously failing players who he did not recruit.

Keatt's recruiting plus impact coaching is a pretty solid advertisement for a coach, wouldn't you say? And if he happens to be either or both of a skilled roster manager or someone with the magic fairy dust to close on the elite player (both of which have eluded Groce), you've got a superstar on your hands.

He's the highest upside guy on the list. And a decent floor too. I think he'd be a great choice.

Corrected your subject in the second to last paragraph.

Agree with all of that, except I'm just not ready to anoint Keatts as a high-level recruiter until he's proven he can do at a P5 program as a head coach. Not saying he wouldn't be, but he just hasn't yet.

Would I still like him as the choice? Yes, I'd be fairly happy but still wondering why JW wasn't able to lure more proven candidates with arguably as much upside.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I'm just not ready to anoint Keatts as a high-level recruiter until he's proven he can do at a P5 program as a head coach.

Neither am I. Of course, I'm not ready to anoint Cuonzo Martin as a Self-like recruiter at Illinois either.

I have a much greater degree of confidence that demonstrated coaching impact will translate than recruiting ability.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Or they couldn't get anyone else. But I agree.

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I mean, those schools could have hired Keatts, they probably could have beaten Vandy to Bryce Drew, or Rutgers to Steve Pikiell, there were many good coaches available back when Wake hired Manning, it's their own fault.

I don't think Stallings was the worst hire in the world, but Pastner and Manning were just examples of AD's who don't know what they're doing.

Good college basketball resumes are less rare than good college football resumes. Sometimes even pretty good P5 jobs in football just hit a wall of bad luck and none of the good coaches will take their job. Derek Dooley to Tennessee springs to mind. That is virtually never true in college basketball. The flipside of that, though, is that it's harder for a college basketball coach to really change the underlying bone structure of a program.

Both of those factors work in Illinois' favor here.

 

[MadSeason]

I guess I don't quite understand this. Does this mean he's gonna be a better coach or a better recruiter?

He's gotten 4 five star guys in six years as a P5 head coach. He's gonna do BETTER than that at Illinois? That seems like a stretch to me.

Yes it means a better recruiter here. it's a stretch to think a guy who has been a successful recruiter at Cal and Tennessee won't see greater success here? A guy from East St. Louis, who has recruited Chicago, assisted and played at Purdue and coached in Missouri?

Not only is Illinois an easier gig to recruit at than Tennessee and Cal but Martin is very familiar with the talent areas he will need to succeed with.

Hard for me to understand the confusion regarding this.

 

[homesickalien]

I have a much greater degree of confidence that demonstrated coaching impact will translate than recruiting ability.

And that right there is the important part. We need a coach that can do exactly that..coach. I think a big thing here that no one is talking about is the staff that this candidate brings with them. That could really take a candidate to the next level in my opinion. That's what really intrigues me about guys like Musselman.

 

[DMan42]

Neither am I. Of course, I'm not ready to anoint Cuonzo Martin as a Self-like recruiter at Illinois either.

I have a much greater degree of confidence that demonstrated coaching impact will translate than recruiting ability.

That's a fair point. Who do you think that guy is?

 

[homesickalien]

Also can anyone think of a few schools that were in our position (on a downward trend but has the resources to be back where the program has been in the past)? I'd love to see a sample of where those coaches came from and their resume coming in.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Yes it means a better recruiter here. it's a stretch to think a guy who has been a successful recruiter at Cal and Tennessee won't see greater success here? A guy from East St. Louis, who has recruited Chicago, assisted and played at Purdue and coached in Missouri?

Not only is Illinois an easier gig to recruit at than Tennessee and Cal but Martin is very familiar with the talent areas he will need to succeed with.

Hard for me to understand the confusion regarding this.

I get that, but that strikes me as an expectation level for recruiting that exceeds anything Illinois has ever seen. Maybe Cuonzo is that guy, but I'd feel a lot more confident in someone I know can make a difference with the solid level of talent that we can be reasonably sure Illinois will always get.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

That's a fair point. Who do you think that guy is?

That's what I'm here crunching the numbers and dissecting resumes to find out.

Keatts and Musselman are the two who really jump out at me so far among guys who I feel sure we could get.

I'm not anti-Cuonzo, but I'm Cuonzo-skeptical.

 

[MadSeason]

I get that, but that strikes me as an expectation level for recruiting that exceeds anything Illinois has ever seen. Maybe Cuonzo is that guy, but I'd feel a lot more confident in someone I know can make a difference with the solid level of talent that we can be reasonably sure Illinois will always get.

Disagree that this would be a level of success never seen here before. Henson brought in as much elite talent as anyone anywhere.

This feels like saying Self will struggle to recruit better at Kansas than at Illinois. A better fit and better school than Illinois

 

[Thor015]

Phil Jackson

 

[DMan42]

Also can anyone think of a few schools that were in our position (on a downward trend but has the resources to be back where the program has been in the past)? I'd love to see a sample of where those coaches came from and their resume coming in.

I think Michigan and Iowa are comparable. Michigan hiring John Belein: at West Virginia his season were: 14-15 (5-11); 17-14 (7-9); 24-11 (8-8) Elite Eight; 22-11 (11-5) sweet sixteen; 27-9 (9-7) no tourney.

Fran McCaffery (from Siena): 5 seasons- made the tourney the last 3 years, his conference records in those years were 13-5, 16-2, 17-1.

 

[Obelix]

Sorry, but how do you know that Keatts wouldn't use Illinois as a stepping stone to something bigger and better?

We have become totally irrelevant in college basketball. Yet, we worry what happens if the next coach is a huge success and better programs try to get him. :huh:

If a coach at Illinois is a huge success, he will always have overtures from the UK, KU, UNC, and Dukes of the world. It would be the greatest compliment that they can pay us for our choice of a coach. Sign me up!

 

[DMan42]

That's what I'm here crunching the numbers and dissecting resumes to find out.

Keatts and Musselman are the two who really jump out at me so far among guys who I feel sure we could get.

I'm not anti-Cuonzo, but I'm Cuonzo-skeptical.

I would see taking a chance on Keatts. But, understanding that it is a risk. It's really tough to know how he would translate.

Musselman can probably coach. But his track record is very small at Nevada to really know.

 

[Deleted member 8632]

Would Leonard Hamilton answer the phone if we called?

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Disagree that this would be a level of success never seen here before. Henson brought in as much elite talent as anyone anywhere.

Did he ever bring in more than four McDAA's in a 6 year period? I don't know the answer to that.

This feels like saying Self will struggle to recruit better at Kansas than at Illinois. A better fit and better school than Illinois

The difference between Tennessee/Cal and Illinois is not the same thing as the difference between Illinois and Kansas.

I dunno. Maybe with Cuonzo we'll start hitting the Wilkes/Tilmon/Goodwin or Brunson/Bragg/Matthews type grand slams that are the subject of such dreams on here. But do we have to do that EVERY year in order to have Big Ten title type success? Because I really think the right coach could get us there with lesser talent resources than that. That seems like the path of least resistance to me.

Maybe Cuonzo is that right coach, but I'm more receptive to that argument than expectations of recruiting riches at a blue blood level.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Would Leonard Hamilton answer the phone if we called?

Leonard Hamilton is 68 years old. He might not hear the phone if we called

 

[jmilt7]

More buzzards circling. Article pretty much goes over what I think are the prevailing sentiments on this thread (at least of the people posting) which is: Groce is a good guy but not a good coach, decent recruiter, bad Xs and Os, fear that the recruiting class may be lost without Groce, etc. but the writer wants a new coach. Some interesting info. that only made me more depressed about the current Illini climate.

http://www.thechampaignroom.com/2017/1/21/14347582/illinois-john-groce-wins

 

[jmilt7]

In the above article I cited, there is a tweet (is that the right terminology? I don't do twitter) by Frazier:

Trent @_Trentfrazier1
Don't get rid of my guy , GROCE , he needs to be there when I'm there ........������
2:01 PM - 29 Dec 2016

But this is a somewhat old tweet that he has since supplanted with something about being a U of I guy. The meaning of which seems to be that he will probably come even if Groce isn't here. Is that right? Frazier amended this tweet already?

 

[coryfor3]

Would Leonard Hamilton answer the phone if we called?

Doubtful. Why would he? He's got a good operation going at FSU. He's recruiting well, competitive, very reasonable expectations from fans, good weather, close to wanting to retire in a few years I would think...Unless it involves a ton of money, idk why he's want the headache of moving and rebuilding. Honesty he has a better situation at FSU.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Also can anyone think of a few schools that were in our position (on a downward trend but has the resources to be back where the program has been in the past)? I'd love to see a sample of where those coaches came from and their resume coming in.

Beilein following Amaker and Brian Ellerbe at Michigan, Fran following Lickliter and Alford at Iowa, Josh Pastner following Brian Gregory and Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech, Mark Gottfried following Sidney Lowe and Herb Sendek at NC State, Brad Underwood following Travis Ford and Sean Sutton at Oklahoma State, Mike Anderson following John Pelphrey and Stan Heath at Arkansas.

Those are all pretty analogous situations of programs with resources going on the open market after getting it wrong twice in a row.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Stephen Silas w/his Dad, Paul as an assistant. Whitman WILL think out of the box.

 

[DMan42]

I'll throw this out there

Bill Self (Tulsa): 19-12 (9-5) 3rd place; 23-10 (9-5) 2nd round of tourney; 32-5 (12-2) Elite Eight.

Kevin Keatts (UNCW): 18-14 (12-6) tied for 1st in conference; 25-8 (14-4) 1st in conference, Tourney appearance; Currently 19-2 (8-0)

If Keatts makes a run in the Tournament (Sweet 16 or better) people are going to be clamoring for him.

 

[Obelix]

If Keatts makes a run in the Tournament (Sweet 16 or better) people are going to be clamoring for him.

Of course, but that is expected, the NCAA is a big deal for mid-major coaches and a huge visibility booster. For mid-major programs, the conference tournament has more value than conference championship. For high major, it is the exact opposite.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

close to wanting to retire in a few years I would think...

It wouldn't shock me at all if he retired after this season. We should root against it though, as that would open up another good job.