2017 Coaching Carousel

[LurkLongandProsper]

They do make sense. I'd rather keep Groce and take an additional year to line up the coach we think can carry us forward, than hire in plan D or E and be right back where we are now in 3 years. How does THAT make sense?

Then you wait another year - or you decide we're too much of a dumpster fire to have high expectations and the lower your expectations and then go plan D or E. I don't think settling is the right move. Obviously if you have an idea you can get plan A, B (or maybe C depending on the gap), then you move.

How does getting another mediocre coach solve this problem? If we're shooting for 'can fog up a mirror', then yes. I think we're shooting for something much higher.

I have quite a few issues with this thinking.

(1) Do you think the A tier candidates for now will either (a) become interested in 2018 after not being interested in 2017 or (b) there will be a fresh crop of new tier A candidates? I would not expect or rely on either of those being true when making the decision in 2017.

(2) So if there's no coaches you like this season, you're fine punting to 2018, and per your post you said you'd also be fine punting to 2019. This assumes he's been bad both years if we're still having the conversation. How long do you punt? You're already 2 years into your rebuild in this scenario had we gone a different direction, and you said you don't want to be "back at this point in 3 years" -- in your scenario, we're 2 out of 3 years down the path and haven't ever left this point. How is that possibly better?

(3) You seriously think any fanbase, let alone ours, would tolerate that many punts? We cannot let the apathy to get worse than it already is.

 

[Golfer63]

The problem with Cuonzo to Mizzou isn't the Bragging Rights game. The reason many posters don't want to see him go to Mizzou is the fear that he will start pulling the best players out of the Metro East left and right, which is an area that we've worked hard to make recruiting progress in, and really need continued success there. The best player on our team and half of our next recruiting class all came out of that area. The talent coming out of Peoria and the rest of downstate has been inconsistent for the last couple of years, and we're not pulling the best players out of Chicago.

Look at the roster for next year and you've got Aaron Jordan and DJ Williams coming out of the Chicago area, and that's it. I don't see AJ as a contributor, and DJW has one foot out the door. The Metro East is a very important region for our success right now, unless the next coach can come in and lock down Chicago, which is extremely unlikely.

I think DJW is 100% gone. Has he even seen the floor since his return from his leave of absence? With Kipper being the likely starter at the 3 next year, I don't see any scenario where DJW stays.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

I'd rather keep Groce and take an additional year to line up the coach we think can carry us forward, than hire in plan D or E and be right back where we are now in 3 years.

What kind of fantasyland is this?

You do not keep Groce to buy time for The One True Coaching Candidate. There are two possible outcomes from doing that:

- Groce has a better year than this one, boxing you in, or
- The job gets even less appealing

Both of those outcomes take you farther away from what you say is your desired result, not closer.

 

[Golfer63]

The whole notion of the program being in worse shape now than it was when Weber was fired is very superficial, and quite frankly, it is childish.

People can complain all they want about Groce constantly being a bridesmaid to the elite recruits, but keep in mind that Weber couldn't even get an invite to the wedding with those same level of recruits.

The next coach was several advantages. Newly renovated arena. Well respected AD. Young but talented roster. Could you imagine if our next coach got everybody to stay with the program for next year, and duplicate the success Groce had in year 1? He would have everybody returning for the following year, which would make us a possible FF darkhorse for the 18-19 season, and likely pre-season top 25 team. That would generate a ton of momentum for the program, which could propel us back into the upper echelons of college basketball in a hurry.

 

[Chief lives on]

A name that I have not seen mentioned that intrigues me is Mike White the head coach at Florida. We had pretty good success with a former Florida coach before and with a guy named Mike White on the football side of things for awhile.

 

[Calvin]

IMO This discussion reflects a lot of things that have more to do with each poster than our actual situation. And that's fine. I see a lot of the same worries cycling through here, and they're all valid concerns. It's pretty interesting to see folks puzzle through this, although I have to admit, I'd rather have the suspense over and see who we get. To use the cliche, at the end of the day...we're just armchair ADs. We're pretty sure Whitman is a good one, understands how important the bball program is here, and what fans have been through.

For my money, I don't see any way he stays the course. The existing contract really set the table to expect performance, and we didn't get that. So unless you consider recruiting rankings far more important than actual wins, I have to believe we'll see a change. There may not be an obvious candidate, but there are a lot of good ones. The trick is to see who fits well and can get the most out of what we offer, which is quite a bit.

In the meantime, I'm actually enjoying the resurgence this team has had with TJL improving and getting PT. Seems really strange to me that a true freshman PG that was borderline top-100 would be so important to the team, but he's got that "it" factor. And we're playing weaker teams

 

[Calvin]

Btw, the mention of Donovan gives me a chuckle. He was bad-mouthed so much on here back when he was at Florida, but now he's considered unlikely and too expensive.

 

[EthanM]

The last player to chose between Miznoz and Illinois was...Aaron Cosby? And before that...

These hypothetical recruiting battles are nice to talk about, but don't really carry much weight. We are just as likely to be battling SLU, Michigan State, Florida etc for kids as we are Miznoz.

If CM is good enough to be the coach at Illinois, then hire him. But don't do it just to keep your recruiting grounds less threatened. We haven't made the tournament in 4 years. All of our recruiting ground is threatened.

Of our current class, Tilmon stated interest in Mizzou, so he's a big one. Pickett didn't, but he was an early commit. Hill had interest from Mizzou. Before that I had to go back to Griffey, but he was STL, not Metro East. Looking at Mizzou's roster for the last several years, they're not getting any recruits from Metro East at all lately.

Missouri basketball has been terrible since the second year of Frank Haith, and their athletic department is a dumpster fire. Cuonzo to Mizzou is an improvement for them. I agree that we only hire him if he's the best coach for the situation, but that doesn't mean I want to see him at Mizzou if we hire someone else and he moves away from Cal.


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[cam]

Of our current class, Tilmon stated interest in Mizzou, so he's a big one. Pickett didn't, but he was an early commit. Hill had interest from Mizzou. Before that I had to go back to Griffey, but he was STL, not Metro East. Looking at Mizzou's roster for the last several years, they're not getting any recruits from Metro East at all lately.

Missouri basketball has been terrible since the second year of Frank Haith, and their athletic department is a dumpster fire. Cuonzo to Mizzou is an improvement for them. I agree that we only hire him if he's the best coach for the situation, but that doesn't mean I want to see him at Mizzou if we hire someone else and he moves away from Cal.


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Living in the STL area I want no part of losing to Mizzou but my main reason for not wanting Cuonzo at Mizzou is recruiting. There are a lot of talented underclassmen in the area and I do think he would make life difficult for the Illini recruiting in that area. Obviously you only hire him if you think he is the right man for the job but you do somewhat have to protect that area of recruiting

 

[I Bomb]

Btw, the mention of Donovan gives me a chuckle. He was bad-mouthed so much on here back when he was at Florida, but now he's considered unlikely and too expensive.

I've always liked him - I remember in Weber's last season, I watched an Illinois loss and then watched a Florida game right after (I think I was watching for Beal, who at one point was at least on our periphery as a recruit). Our players were goofing around and laughing as we lost, but in the Florida game every player on Florida looked so damn serious. Basketball was serious business to them. I really envied that attitude and gave Donovan a lot of credit for having that kind of a culture there.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

2) What is your solution for this? If there are no A-C - you suggest taking D then if you want to get rid of Groce. How did that work out for his the last few years? Since you want him gone regardless, that tells me you're ok with a mediocre coach. Do you really think we'd hire a 2 year stop-gap coach and that would work out better? Per your argument, getting a bad coach now to replace Groce and then replace that guy in 2 years is a better path. I am thinking not.

I'm going to address this point because it unravels the rest of them.

It's not reality. Mike Thomas is no longer the AD, coaches aren't going to pass on us because they don't want to work for him. We aren't going to strike out on A, B, and C, so the argument is irrelevant.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

I am ok with that - and assume we will. This all started by the 'fire Groce' no matter what discussion. It doesn't unravel - because that was the nature of the discussion. This was not a "we will not be able to hire A, B or C" discussion.

It's kind of playing word games though. People are saying "fire Groce no matter what" because they know we aren't going to strike out on all reasonable candidates, so that "what if we get someone just as bad or worse" doesn't come into play.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

It's kind of playing word games though. People are saying "fire Groce no matter what" because they know we aren't going to strike out on all reasonable candidates, so that "what if we get someone just as bad or worse" doesn't come into play.

Ok - but to keep the word games going - i am not saying just as bad or worse. I am saying 'guy who can only us to middle of the big 10'...

What would you do if it was only that guy we could get? If you're sticking to A,B or C will happen - then ok, but then don't modify the argument to 'bad or worse'.

 

[Calvin]

It's kind of playing word games though. People are saying "fire Groce no matter what" because they know we aren't going to strike out on all reasonable candidates, so that "what if we get someone just as bad or worse" doesn't come into play.

There's always risk when you take action. I think the general belief is that the risk of doing worse is quite low, and the ceiling somewhere between high and very high.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

I am saying 'guy who can only us to middle of the big 10'...

What would you do if it was only that guy we could get?

YES.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

YES.

We'll have to agree to disagree. Big mistake IMO to drag this out for another 5 years. I'd rather wait another year to get it right - Hey, it worked for football. Not that JW will pull another of those out of his hat, but, its proof waiting can be a benefit. Yes, JW was not on staff when TB was given another year, but, its proof that time can help resolve a problem for the long term. I'd rather take another year of pain now than be back here for the 2019 Coaching Carousel thread.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

We'll have to agree to disagree. Big mistake IMO to drag this out for another 5 years. I'd rather wait another year to get it right - Hey, it worked for football. Not that JW will pull another of those out of his hat, but, its proof waiting can be a benefit. Yes, JW was not on staff when TB was given another year, but, its proof that time can help resolve a problem for the long term. I'd rather take another year of pain now than be back here for the 2019 Coaching Carousel thread.

That was definitely the exception to the rule. And has already been stated, this is a fire or extend year. There is no scenario where he gets just one more year. It's simply not how it works.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

We'll have to agree to disagree. Big mistake IMO to drag this out for another 5 years. I'd rather wait another year to get it right

This is not the choice. There is no rational reason to think waiting another year will increase the odds of "getting it right."

It did not "work for football." We did not wait another year and our position got magically more appealing. We caught lightning in a bottle because we had a new AD who happened to have connections to a candidate who was not even a part of the college coaching marketplace. None of that is applicable to the situation we are facing now for basketball.

Not firing John Groce will - not may, will - lead to one of two outcomes:
- more John Groce
- an even less attractive job

You pick the one of those that is going to get us back to the top of the B1G faster than hiring someone who may only get us back to the middle in the short run.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

We'll have to agree to disagree. Big mistake IMO to drag this out for another 5 years. I'd rather wait another year to get it right - Hey, it worked for football. Not that JW will pull another of those out of his hat, but, its proof waiting can be a benefit. Yes, JW was not on staff when TB was given another year, but, its proof that time can help resolve a problem for the long term. I'd rather take another year of pain now than be back here for the 2019 Coaching Carousel thread.

This is a horrible analogy. First of all, Beckman wasn't given another year, he was canned while still on his original deal. If you mean Cubit, giving him that 2 year deal was just an awful decision, to claim it worked to our advantage because Whitman chose to nuke it on his first day is some real spin. Yeah, "it worked out" but in no way is that fiasco some kind of blue print for the hoops situation.

 

[ILHoff]

We'll have to agree to disagree. Big mistake IMO to drag this out for another 5 years. I'd rather wait another year to get it right - Hey, it worked for football. Not that JW will pull another of those out of his hat, but, its proof waiting can be a benefit. Yes, JW was not on staff when TB was given another year, but, its proof that time can help resolve a problem for the long term. I'd rather take another year of pain now than be back here for the 2019 Coaching Carousel thread.

You may have already answered this, but who are you expecting to hire next year that you can't hire this year?

 

[Deleted member 29907]

You may have already answered this, but who are you expecting to hire next year that you can't hire this year?

Your point being that new candidates do not become available every year?

I don't have 'Guy X' in mind. My take is that JW does not jump on just anyone to replace Groce. I don't know him personally, but if we think he is who we've portrayed on these boards, I think he doesn't settle just to move on. That kicks the can down the road to have to deal with yet another hire in 4 years. Who are you expecting to hire in 2021?

Could be wrong, maybe he does settle - I don't know why people want to settle for Plan D just to get rid of the current guy.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

Your argument makes no sense. So it's ok to keep kicking the can down the road until you think you can get the "right" guy?

He doesn't understand there is no "one more year" option. We've all tried explaining that choosing to not move on from Groce IS another long term commitment because he will have to be extended to be able to recruit. I give up.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

That being said, hiring a middle of the road guy does nothing for Illinois. If anything it solidifies your brand as mediocre. If you don't have the right hire, and you let Groce stay another year and this class comes in and is even close to what is advertised, the job is more attractive for the next guy coming in if you have to pull the trigger. And if it is worse, then you are able to do a total rebuild next year and not wait the obligatory 3-5 years to fire the "middle of the road guy" you have indicated would be acceptable. Whitman must get this one right. If he is not sure, he should hold his powder until he is.
]

Again, stop me if I've said this before, one more year is not an option. You can't recruit like that. He will be fired or extended. Choosing to keep him is choosing to make a new commitment.

 

[I Bomb]

All I know from wasting tons of time reading the old coaching search thread after Weber was canned is, some people have good ideas and lots of people don't. Myself included. It's funny to see how many people went all in on the Smart train as plan A, B, C, D - even national writers were saying he'd be crazy to turn it down. And, he turned it down.

Add to that the number of people saying "ummm, pass" on Brad Stevens. Lol. I think the general idea has to be, first you make the decision to keep the coach or let the coach go. Then you go after the best candidate available until one agrees. Sounds simple, but I don't think there's any room for negotiating a holdover until we find the "right" guy, only because it all starts with the decision to keep or fire.

 

[ILHoff]

Your point being that new candidates do not become available every year?

I don't have 'Guy X' in mind. My take is that JW does not jump on just anyone to replace Groce. I don't know him personally, but if we think he is who we've portrayed on these boards, I think he doesn't settle just to move on. That kicks the can down the road to have to deal with yet another hire in 4 years. Who are you expecting to hire in 2021?

Could be wrong, maybe he does settle - I don't know why people want to settle for Plan D just to get rid of the current guy.

My point being that you must have a better point than blindly hoping the candidate pool is improved next year. You are the only one thinking we end up with a plan D coach. That's strictly your assumption.