One thing I've been pondering is that not firing Groce probably means extending him for three years on a relatively small buyout (as discussed plenty throughout this thread), but it likely also means giving him somewhat of a pass next year. We only bring back three upperclassmen who have proven to be Big Ten contributors (JCL, Black, Finke), and so far they all look like role players. Lucas and Nichols have bright futures, but they don't appear to be guys who will make all-conference teams as sophs. AJ and DJW are mysteries at this point.
That team, plus 4-5 freshmen and maybe a grad transfer or two will not be expected to make the tourney. If Groce keeps them competitive and wins 15+ games he'll be back in 2018-19.
The doomsday scenario for the program is this: we beat RU, win against Michigan or Iowa in the BTT, keep it close against Purdue, and end up in the last four out with a final record of 20-13 (#1 seed in the NIT). Groce is retained despite missing the tournament. In 2017-18 we struggle, but finish strong and make the NIT with 18 wins. We come into 2018-19 with high expectations - probably ranked in the preseason - and then it becomes finally, abundantly clear that Groce is out of his league. We straddle the bubble and end up on the wrong side before Groce is dismissed after missing the NCAAT six times in a row.
I don't think it will go down like that, but imagining the possibility helps me understand why some people are so adamant that Groce has to go this year basically no matter what. Six years of NCAA futility should be inconceivable at Illinois.