I think the writer allows for that impression. His thesis is rather that the next couple of weeks should not be what makes/breaks Groce's job.
In other words, Whitman should have made up his mind one way or another at this point.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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In other words, Whitman should have made up his mind one way or another at this point.
If this was a Division 3 team, I'd agree with you 100%. I'd want my son to play for Groce. But this is Division I and wins and losses are important. If they weren't, Lou Tepper would still be coaching the football team.
We haven't had success on the court and there have been enough off court issues. If we are going to be mediocre we should be able to be mediocre without having players arrested every year.
Talking about "more than the W-L record", along with "being a nice guy" and "doing things the right way" is what fans of bad coaches and bad programs do (this is also where "our graduation rate" and "academics" gets pulled into the discussion).
All other things being equal, I'd rather have a nice guy as coach than a jerk, but no one really cares about that stuff when you're winning. No one would be discussing what a nice guy Groce is if we were discussing being a 4 or a 5 seed in the NCAAs.
It's to the point where Groce isn't even on the hot seat anymore. I've come to terms with it. I honestly believe Whitman told him and the recruits a while back that Groce was coming back. I remember them tweeting back and forth very vague tweets one day that made me think they knew something. All seemed upbeat. Couple that with Whitman's love of Groce, current win streak, recruits and lack of that big time hire....its a done deal. Groce back with a small extension and small buyout.
This is just not true. If you really think this stretch of 4 wins cools Groce's seat entirely, you're just being crazy. The reality is that even if he is extended, he has another prove it year next year (it may not have to be an NCAAT, but it also better not be another "terrible until late February" season). His seat is still hot.
Not sure I've ever seen a coaching candidate go from hot to cold so quick as Martin. Oh well, maybe next week it will change back.
Right? All those posters that wanted him... And then he takes it a bit downhill and now everyone is against him? Guys! I though it was about "body of work"!
I think you are correct.
Foggy Notion
- San Francisco
Your interpretation of the evidence is different from mine, and they are both opinions.
There is more evidence to support the argument that he will not get better (especially considering the abundance of belief that he is 'stubborn'...) based on his D1 coaching career than there is that he will suddenly become a top level coach. Remember, his mediocrity in terms of conference records, overall record, etc date back to Ohio, it's not just something he's experienced here.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
Fake news.
Why should we assume it's more likely that Groce is staying, especially if we're basing it off of Josh Whitman's perceived behavior? Nobody saw the football coach situation coming until it actually happened. Maybe our AD is smart enough to not tip his hand until he has made a confident final decision.
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Foggy Notion
- San Francisco
More evidence is not the same as better evidence, and your interpretation of it is still different than mine.
Well, evidence that exists is better evidence than evidence we're straining to create.
Heck, one of the improvements people want to see is less dependence on seniors/reluctance to play/trust youth, and yet, rather than saying Groce will play his freshmen next year rather than ineffective upperclassmen as we've seen in multiple cases in Groce's tenure, and where he should have learned from TJL or Kipper, or even MH and Nunn in their freshman year, the argument instead is "he doesn't have a choice so it's fine!"
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I don't recall a 2 way man crush between JW and Cubit.
Foggy Notion
- San Francisco
So you're pointing to message board opinions as evidence? Who's straining now?
When did I say it was just people from IL making those arguments? C'mon now, at least humor the discussion. Are you legitimately arguing he didn't wait too long to play those dudes?
The fact of the matter is that we're hinging on an offense under Groce that has never been above 47th in KenPom (47th was his first year here with Weber players, no other year, including at Ohio, was better than 90th) to suddenly improve, for Groce to stop being stubborn, for Groce to make staff changes, etc, etc. when the reality is that most of those things, if not all, are all unlikely.
Why does a 4 game streak all of a sudden indicate the light is coming on long-term? I've accepted he's likely returning, but I don't buy this newfound narrative that he's turned a corner in the process as a coach. There's just next to nothing to support that.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
I think we're all on pins and needles awaiting your interpretation of how
8-10
7-11
9-9
5-13
9-9 (fingers crossed!)
constitutes evidence of things looking up.
haasi
- New York
Well, putting it that way, 2 of the last 3 years we've been .500, which we never hit in first two years. Pretty good!
But in actuality, the only evidence that suggests that things are looking up is what several people have mentioned, including Fat Greg in a really good post above: Groce's system depends on quality PG play, and he completely bungled that recruiting wise for the first 4 years. Now that Lucas is in offense finally seems to be running fluidly, for first time ever. And we've got more guys with PG skills coming, as well as Tilmon, who should ultimately be a much more complete player and significant improvement over Egwu/Mav.
One thing I've been pondering is that not firing Groce probably means extending him for three years on a relatively small buyout (as discussed plenty throughout this thread), but it likely also means giving him somewhat of a pass next year. We only bring back three upperclassmen who have proven to be Big Ten contributors (JCL, Black, Finke), and so far they all look like role players. Lucas and Nichols have bright futures, but they don't appear to be guys who will make all-conference teams as sophs. AJ and DJW are mysteries at this point.
That team, plus 4-5 freshmen and maybe a grad transfer or two will not be expected to make the tourney. If Groce keeps them competitive and wins 15+ games he'll be back in 2018-19.
The doomsday scenario for the program is this: we beat RU, win against Michigan or Iowa in the BTT, keep it close against Purdue, and end up in the last four out with a final record of 20-13 (#1 seed in the NIT). Groce is retained despite missing the tournament. In 2017-18 we struggle, but finish strong and make the NIT with 18 wins. We come into 2018-19 with high expectations - probably ranked in the preseason - and then it becomes finally, abundantly clear that Groce is out of his league. We straddle the bubble and end up on the wrong side before Groce is dismissed after missing the NCAAT six times in a row.
I don't think it will go down like that, but imagining the possibility helps me understand why some people are so adamant that Groce has to go this year basically no matter what. Six years of NCAA futility should be inconceivable at Illinois.
That team, plus 4-5 freshmen and maybe a grad transfer or two will not be expected to make the tourney. If Groce keeps them competitive and wins 15+ games he'll be back in 2018-19.
The doomsday scenario for the program is this: we beat RU, win against Michigan or Iowa in the BTT, keep it close against Purdue, and end up in the last four out with a final record of 20-13 (#1 seed in the NIT). Groce is retained despite missing the tournament. In 2017-18 we struggle, but finish strong and make the NIT with 18 wins. We come into 2018-19 with high expectations - probably ranked in the preseason - and then it becomes finally, abundantly clear that Groce is out of his league. We straddle the bubble and end up on the wrong side before Groce is dismissed after missing the NCAAT six times in a row.
I don't think it will go down like that, but imagining the possibility helps me understand why some people are so adamant that Groce has to go this year basically no matter what. Six years of NCAA futility should be inconceivable at Illinois.
haasi
- New York
Yup, that's the nightmare scenario, and based on Groce's track record to date, it's 100% completely imaginable and perhaps the outcome that most people would anticipate. Hanging on to him is to think that what we've seen the past 5 years is not a fair reflection of his capacities as a coach, which requires setting aside a lot, making a lot of excuses, and some suspension of belief. I do think there's an argument for retaining him, but if Whitman thought he could get someone this offseason who is a clear upgrade, I don't think he should retain Groce even if he squeaks into tourney. In the absence of such a clear candidate, I'd be ok retaining him but would be uneasy about it.
Excellent post, agree with your assessment. The scenario you presented with respect to this year is actually the scenario I presented a long time back: The possibility (not certainty) that Groce is retained despite missing the NCAA but making the NIT. As I had said, nobody knows what JW would do, but it is indeed a possible scenario. Of course, back then, that statement was ridiculed, but now is gathering more and more acceptance.
I also agree with your assessment moving forward. Good post!
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