2017 Coaching Carousel

[ILLINIShox24]

David Haugh out with an article this morning essentially saying Groce is a nice guy but from a basketball perspective, we can do better. I think most of us agree. I expect 670 and 1000 to spend some time taking calls with a pro-Northwestern spin on them today while discussing the article.

 

[RedRocksIllini]

Lorenzo has to have some serious dirt on the Washington AD

2-16 in conference with the likely overall No. 1 pick in the draft. That's impressive.

 

[Calvin]

I don't think the JW is even remotely putting his job on the line if he extends Groce. He has so much good will in the bank with the Lovie hire he is going to be able to do pretty much what he wants for the next few years. JW will make the calculation of how much of that good will he is willing to risk, and just how big of a net risk he would be taking (in keeping or firing Groce). I don't think it is an easy of a call as some of you.

Oh, I wouldn't' want to say it's an easy call. Parting with Groce IMO would be easier than not, but either way it's a big decision with plenty of risks. The risk of retaining Groce is obvious, based on the trends in performance and attendance: he keeps losing and we're not among the top 68 teams at the end of the season. The reward is he's turned a corner with his coaching and we stop having to ride the bubble. I don't think he'll ever be an elite coach, so I'm not sure what his ceiling is. I'd put his top end below Matta, but Matta had a NC appearance when he landed one of the best classes in history. I think Groce's performance is more dependent on presonnel than most coaches, and he doesn't have the knack, at least yet, for putting the puzzle together to ensure he'll have a successful roster. I hope for his sake and ours that he's made progress. The real problem for me with Groce though is his motivational skills. He's built incredible loyalty in his players, but he doesn't seem to have that knack for firing them up game to game, or strategically through a season.

The risk of the unknown is just that, with the additional complication of who you can get, and whether any of them are what you're looking for. Although I would add that schools have lucked into good coaches more than a few times.

Btw, I disagree with the statement that he has so much goodwill he can do whatever he wants for years. Sports are fickle. A few bad breaks can change the character of narrative. It takes an insanely good saleman to turn losing into something fans believe is winning. As an example, Groce surviving 4 years without an NCAA tournament appearance would have been unthinkable to me, but it could happen.

 

[Illini03]

To those who have been advocating the retention of John Grove as head basketball coach. I believe this is a case of loss aversion bias. We are afraid that we will loose something recruits, prestige, etc. However when you look objectively at the last 5 years I think it is clearly time to move on.

 

[BZuppke]

I do think it comes down to available replacements as a large factor. We'll know in a week or so.

 

[cam]

If Groce is kept it will be infuriating considering a guy like Keatts is going to be on the table this off season. Obviously, with guys like Monty Williams we don't have any clear indication that he is interested in a job like Illinois. But it appears guys like Marshall and Keatts would certainly be open to discussion. IMO Marshall would be a home run hire and Keatts would be a double or triple. Regardless, I'd feel significantly better about the future of the program if either of those guys came to coach at Illinois. And unfortunately, Groce doesn't give me that same confidence. We know what we are going to get with Groce and mediocrity isn't going to cut it.

Obviously Marshall is a home run and probably any school in the league other than Michigan State would love to have him. Pitino won coach of the year and easily could have been fired after last year when he looked like he didn't have a clue what he was doing

 

[Smacko]

2-16 in conference with the likely overall No. 1 pick in the draft. That's impressive.

Lorenzo is one of the greatest of all time when it comes to squandering talent.

 

[Calvin]

We are on the hook for the full amount of JG contract if we choose to fire.

The buyout refers to what another school would have to pay us if they wanted to hire him away.

All coaching contracts are a series of layered one year contracts. JG can walk away at the end of any one year. We on the other hand are obligated for the full amount. Tampa Bay and Lovie being an example of this happening to our benefit

Beckmann was different. We maintained the contract void because of his abusive behavior. He got a settlement and left

It's not the full contract value. The contract is online, and there are clauses for termination with/without cause. I'm not going to look it up again, but IIRC, you can see that his compensation has components to it, and the buyout (termination without cause) references base salary only. You should be able to search the main coaching thread to find it.

 

[Golfer63]

Keatts is starting to look more and more attractive. Just hope that he isn't the supposed 'coach in waiting' for whenever Pitino retires from Louisville. Maybe we need to root hard for Baby Face to keep succeeding at Minny so he can be the one who takes over for his dad at Louisville whenever he retires.

 

[Centennial Illini]

Calvin,

Your "dumb luck" analogy is spot on, sometimes you get lucky and you can't figure out why.

Kim Anderson wins a D2 natl championship, goes back to his alma mater where he is beloved. Falls flat on his face.

Bo Ryan wins 2 D2 natl championships, goes to UWM where he is middling, gets the job at UW where he is literally their 5th choice and builds a mini dynasty.

On the surface, these two choices are not that different.

 

[CubIllini]

Just heard Brad Evans on the Tay and Jay podcast discussing Ben Howland as a realistic option. I know he is older, but maybe he could help get the program back to a stable place before retirement. Not to mention, MS State is not a destination spot...

 

[UofI08]

Keatts is starting to look more and more attractive. Just hope that he isn't the supposed 'coach in waiting' for whenever Pitino retires from Louisville. Maybe we need to root hard for Baby Face to keep succeeding at Minny so he can be the one who takes over for his dad at Louisville whenever he retires.

I could be totally wrong, but based on his coaching history, nothing indicates that was ever the plan. He only coached there for 3 years. If they wanted to make him coach in waiting, this would be the offseason to bring him back to be an assistant again for a couple years with coach in waiting being part of his contract (a la Matt Painter). He's going to be hired by someone this year for sure.

If he were to eventually replace Pitino, it would be more of a Self to Kansas type move, where he dominated here, or with whoever else hires him, and proved to be a clear blue blood target.

 

[Obelix]

Just heard Brad Evans on the Tay and Jay podcast discussing Ben Howland as a realistic option. I know he is older, but maybe he could help get the program back to a stable place before retirement. Not to mention, MS State is not a destination spot...

He is a good coach, but not a good fit at Illinois IMO, and to be honest, the last 2 years he has bombed at Miss State.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Just heard Brad Evans on the Tay and Jay podcast discussing Ben Howland as a realistic option. I know he is older, but maybe he could help get the program back to a stable place before retirement. Not to mention, MS State is not a destination spot...

Soon to be 60 years old and a cheater.....no thanks!!

 

[CubIllini]

He is a good coach, but not a good fit at Illinois IMO, and to be honest, the last 2 years he has bombed at Miss State.

Valid point. Man I am just so jaded over the mid-major hires after all the Groce issues the past few years. Outside of Archie Miller, I just don't see anyone else who I really want this go round. I was warming up to Cuonzo before his recent stretch of hot garbage.

 

[GortTheRobot]

I do think it comes down to available replacements as a large factor. We'll know in a week or so.

I guess the timing depends on who we are after, and how long they stay in the tourney. Unless, of course, it's someone like Monty, who could be named at any point. I would love to end the speculation.

Questions:

Does anyone think JW announces when we are done in the BIG Ten Tourney? Depending on when it ends for us, that could be pretty soon.

Would JW allow Walker to coach us in the NIT if we accept an invite, or do you think he lets Groce play it out, even if he knows he will let him go?

 

[UofI08]

He is a good coach, but not a good fit at Illinois IMO, and to be honest, the last 2 years he has bombed at Miss State.

Yeah he's been terrible at Miss State, and he's almost 60. I always liked him since his Pitt days and remember his teams being very tough and defensive minded there, so he could fit in the B1G. If he was having success at Miss State, I could see it, but not now.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Soon to be 60 years old and a cheater.....no thanks!!

Not to mention the stories about how poorly he managed the situation at UCLA towards the end of his time there.

Hard pass.

 

[StateFarmCenter]

I guess the timing depends on who we are after, and how long they stay in the tourney. Unless, of course, it's someone like Monty, who could be named at any point. I would love to end the speculation.

Questions:

Does anyone think JW announces when we are done in the BIG Ten Tourney? Depending on when it ends for us, that could be pretty soon.

Would JW allow Walker to coach us in the NIT if we accept an invite, or do you think he lets Groce play it out, even if he knows he will let him go?

We'd have to really walk a fine line letting Walker be head coach

 

[mattcoldagelli]

Keatts is starting to look more and more attractive. Just hope that he isn't the supposed 'coach in waiting' for whenever Pitino retires from Louisville. Maybe we need to root hard for Baby Face to keep succeeding at Minny so he can be the one who takes over for his dad at Louisville whenever he retires.

If our fans could be like even 1/4 as scared of a stale and steady descent into Minnesota-like mediocrity as we are of coaches being so successful they take a new job, we'd really be on to something.

 

[cam]

Just heard Brad Evans on the Tay and Jay podcast discussing Ben Howland as a realistic option. I know he is older, but maybe he could help get the program back to a stable place before retirement. Not to mention, MS State is not a destination spot...

I like Evans but absolutely keep Groce unless you can do a lot better than that

 

[IlliniInOK]

I guess the timing depends on who we are after, and how long they stay in the tourney. Unless, of course, it's someone like Monty, who could be named at any point. I would love to end the speculation.

Questions:

Does anyone think JW announces when we are done in the BIG Ten Tourney? Depending on when it ends for us, that could be pretty soon.

Would JW allow Walker to coach us in the NIT if we accept an invite, or do you think he lets Groce play it out, even if he knows he will let him go?

I think we will have our decision on Groce's future next Monday. I also think we will play in the NIT (as we should) if we are invited, and that Groce would coach the team through it even if Whitman decides to fire him.

 

[JoseyWales83]

I like Evans but absolutely keep Groce unless you can do a lot better than that

Nope, he is gone and our AD is Josh Whitman not Mike Thomas. So this line of thinking that you keep him because you can't find coaches or take a risk is crazy. You will have around $3MM to play with and you are telling me you can't find a coach better than Groce for that amount of money is beyond me. You will find a better coach mark it down.

 

[EJ33]

Crean in play for Illinois?

Link

If you look at it objectively he is the best "gettable" Power 5 coach.

 

[Calvin]

I think we will have our decision on Groce's future next Monday. I also think we will play in the NIT (as we should) if we are invited, and that Groce would coach the team through it even if Whitman decides to fire him.

I'd take this over anything else in the field. My guess is that Whitman will support JG all the way to the end, which btw, is part of what makes him a great AD. He wants JG to succeed. He would much rather have JG succeed than the alternative. He will "come to a mutual agreement" if possible, and something else if necessary. Just guesses, admittedly. He will also move very quickly once set in motion, and hopefully he's put himself in a good position to execute. Like any good surgery, once you make the cut, the clock is ticking. I say this as someone who rarely goes into surgery without a plan.