MSU-top 5 team, probably will win 26-28 games this year, a win against this team is not likely
Minnesota-returns everyone, top 20 team, and probably wins 23-26 games, if we get them at home I think we have about a 30% shot at a win
Purdue-don't match up well with them, experienced group even without Swanigan, I think they are underrated, probably a 5-6 seed, don't see us beating them
Northwestern-match up well with them IMO, beat them twice last year, got into the tourney last year with a favorable schedule, if we get them at home I'll drink some kool0aid and chalk up a W
Michigan/Maryland/Iowa-Confidently place these teams in the 5-7 range, all will probably be in the 7-11 range come tourney time, all beatable at home and road
penn st/indiana/ohio st/ rutgers nebraska are all not going to be in the tourney this year, Nebsraka/OSU/rutgers might all struggle to win more than 5 or 6 games in conference and i think it's fair to say that we can beat these teams anywhere.
in the nonconference Grand Valley should be a win, Miznoz probable loss,,new mexico is a win, like our chances with wake forest bc their home court is not very intimidating and is a must win if we want to make the tourney. UNLV and Depaul should also be wins. So far we have 5 "big" games in our noncofnerence and 4 of them are very winnable in my opinion, and dont see us scheduling more than 1 other power 5 matchup.
Given that, I think that a 11-2 nonconference should be very doable, along with a 10-8 confernce given our mirror games. Puts us at 21-10, and honestly don't think it's that out of the question, our SOS won't be stellar but i think we can reasonable expect to be dancing in march with a 8-10 seed. Am I drinking too much kool-aid? Jeez I need Novemeber to come around.