I'm bored and need something stimulating to do so ive decided to reasonably break down how we stack up in the big ten this year and how we stack up based on what we know of our schedule.
MSU-top 5 team, probably will win 26-28 games this year, a win against this team is not likely
Minnesota-returns everyone, top 20 team, and probably wins 23-26 games, if we get them at home I think we have about a 30% shot at a win
Purdue-don't match up well with them, experienced group even without Swanigan, I think they are underrated, probably a 5-6 seed, don't see us beating them
Northwestern-match up well with them IMO, beat them twice last year, got into the tourney last year with a favorable schedule, if we get them at home I'll drink some kool0aid and chalk up a W
Michigan/Maryland/Iowa-Confidently place these teams in the 5-7 range, all will probably be in the 7-11 range come tourney time, all beatable at home and road
penn st/indiana/ohio st/ rutgers nebraska are all not going to be in the tourney this year, Nebsraka/OSU/rutgers might all struggle to win more than 5 or 6 games in conference and i think it's fair to say that we can beat these teams anywhere.
in the nonconference Grand Valley should be a win, Miznoz probable loss,,new mexico is a win, like our chances with wake forest bc their home court is not very intimidating and is a must win if we want to make the tourney. UNLV and Depaul should also be wins. So far we have 5 "big" games in our noncofnerence and 4 of them are very winnable in my opinion, and dont see us scheduling more than 1 other power 5 matchup.
Given that, I think that a 11-2 nonconference should be very doable, along with a 10-8 confernce given our mirror games. Puts us at 21-10, and honestly don't think it's that out of the question, our SOS won't be stellar but i think we can reasonable expect to be dancing in march with a 8-10 seed. Am I drinking too much kool-aid? Jeez I need Novemeber to come around.