2019-20 Coaching Discussion/Carousel

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#651      

Hoppy2105

Little Rock, Arkansas
Because the Cubit situation was unique, for methodological consistency let's take a look at other programs that had a full-year interim guy, and count how many head coaches they have had since we hired Ron Zook in 2005 shall we? I'll asterisk the interim guy.

Illinois - 4: Ron Zook, Tim Beckman, Bill Cubit*, Lovie Smith
Ohio State - 4: Jim Tressel, Luke Fickell*, Urban Meyer, Ryan Day
Baylor - 4: Guy Morriss, Art Briles, Jim Grobe*, Matt Rhule
Arkansas - 5: Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino, John L Smith*, Bret Bielema, Chad Morris
North Carolina - 5: John Bunting, Butch Davis, Everett Withers*, Larry Fedora, Mack Brown
Minnesota - 5: Glen Mason, Tim Brewster, Jerry Kill, Tracy Claeys*, PJ Fleck

So yeah, I'd say it's pretty much the norm.

Nicely put Gritty. Your “sickness” fills my college football knowledge void for whatever topic we happen to be discussing.

Keep it up!
 
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#652      
Because the Cubit situation was unique, for methodological consistency let's take a look at other programs that had a full-year interim guy, and count how many head coaches they have had since we hired Ron Zook in 2005 shall we? I'll asterisk the interim guy.

Illinois - 4: Ron Zook, Tim Beckman, Bill Cubit*, Lovie Smith
Ohio State - 4: Jim Tressel, Luke Fickell*, Urban Meyer, Ryan Day
Baylor - 4: Guy Morriss, Art Briles, Jim Grobe*, Matt Rhule
Arkansas - 5: Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino, John L Smith*, Bret Bielema, Chad Morris
North Carolina - 5: John Bunting, Butch Davis, Everett Withers*, Larry Fedora, Mack Brown
Minnesota - 5: Glen Mason, Tim Brewster, Jerry Kill, Tracy Claeys*, PJ Fleck

So yeah, I'd say it's pretty much the norm.
These are really good examples. I was not aware that turnover was that rampant.

I would argue that the only winning program on there is Ohio State and Meyer would have been there for 15 more years if his health allowed it. (Same with Kill)

I guess Baylor has won over the years, but didn't Briles get the boot because of player "issues"?

Well, I hope Lovie succeeds, but I will submit regarding it being out of the norm.

Good insight.
 
#653      
If by player "issues" you mean Art Briles deservedly got the boot for looking the other way when his players committed sexual assault domestic violence, and other crimes then yeah.

Most of these other coaches found ways to win 4-6 games in just a couple years. If you subtract Lovie's first year because of not having "his guys" then it's not really the worst IF and only IF he manages to win 5.
 
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#654      
I like Lovie and he's done a good job at upgrading talent and holding players accountable off the field. Still needs to win though. Does JW put demands on Lovie like, 1. hire a DC with a new scheme 2. make the necessary coaching changes on both sides of the ball 3. either get a grip on time management or give that responsibility to the OC

So, more or less, become a figurehead/CEO.
 
#655      
Why exactly would a public university want to expend millions of dollars per year on a "figurehead" who has shown himself unable to adequately perform most of the functions of a head coach of a college football team?
 
#656      
I like Lovie and he's done a good job at upgrading talent and holding players accountable off the field. Still needs to win though. Does JW put demands on Lovie like, 1. hire a DC with a new scheme 2. make the necessary coaching changes on both sides of the ball 3. either get a grip on time management or give that responsibility to the OC

So, more or less, become a figurehead/CEO.
Why pay 4 to 5 million for a figure head?
 
#657      

Hoppy2105

Little Rock, Arkansas
I like Lovie and he's done a good job at upgrading talent and holding players accountable off the field. Still needs to win though. Does JW put demands on Lovie like, 1. hire a DC with a new scheme 2. make the necessary coaching changes on both sides of the ball 3. either get a grip on time management or give that responsibility to the OC

So, more or less, become a figurehead/CEO.

It’s too late for the coordinator changeout game. If we get a guy with a new scheme, it could take a year or two to implement. If we continue to muddle through 3-9 and 4-8 seasons during that time, it won’t matter anymore as Lovie will have a hard time recruiting big time players with his awful W/L record.


This idea is Zook 2.0. It’s been tried and failed, unfortunately.
 
#658      

Deleted member 654622

D
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Why did Mike Richt leave Miami again? What is he doing now? Apologize if his name has already been brought up
 
#659      

BZuppke

Plainfield
I believe if JW makes a change he will surprise us with a Les Miles type of hire. Former or current successful P5 head coach.
 
#661      

Deleted member 19448

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I would go so far as to say it's a flagrant lie.
Agreed on this point. I think going back to Tepper it could be argued that we kept each coach (sans Beckman) at least long enough if not 1 or 2 years too long. The coordinator reboot under Zook was an example of how Illinois has operated. Just delaying the inevitable for a couple years.
 
#662      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I believe if JW makes a change he will surprise us with a Les Miles type of hire. Former or current successful P5 head coach.

You may be right, it wouldn't surprise me if he tried. But I go back to that list of hires I made:


So here's 10 years of data on Power Five head coaching hires, broken down by where they came from:

Internal Replacements
2009 - Kentucky - Joker Phillips
2009 - Florida State - Jimbo Fisher
2010 - Stanford - David Shaw
2011 - Rutgers - Kyle Flood
2012 - Syracuse - Scott Shafer
2012 - Oregon - Mark Helfrich
2015 - USC - Clay Helton
2015 - Missouri - Barry Odom
2015 - Minnesota - Tracy Claeys
2016 - Ole Miss - Matt Luke
2016 - LSU - Ed Orgeron
2016 - Indiana - Tom Allen
2017 - Oregon - Mario Cristobal
2018 - Ohio State - Ryan Day
2018 - Miami - Manny Diaz

Mid-Major Head Coaches
2009 - Virginia - Mike London
2009 - Notre Dame - Brian Kelly
2009 - Tennessee - Derek Dooley
2009 - Kansas - Turner Gill
2010 - Michigan - Brady Hoke
2010 - Pittsburgh - Todd Graham
2010 - Minnesota - Jerry Kill
2010 - Miami - Al Golden
2011 - Texas A&M - Kevin Sumlin
2011 - North Carolina - Larry Fedora
2011 - Illinois - Tim Beckman
2011 - Ole Miss - Hugh Freeze
2012 - Wisconsin - Gary Andersen
2012 - Auburn - Gus Malzahn
2012 - Boston College - Steve Addazio
2012 - Colorado - Mike MacIntyre
2012 - NC State - Dave Doeren
2012 - Purdue - Darrell Hazell
2012 - Tennessee - Butch Jones
2012 - Cal - Sonny Dykes
2013 - Washington - Chris Petersen
2013 - Wake Forest - Dave Clawson
2014 - Florida - Jim McElwain
2015 - Virginia Tech - Justin Fuente
2015 - Virginia - Bronco Mendenhall
2015 - Syracuse - Dino Babers
2015 - Iowa State - Matt Campbell
2016 - Texas - Tom Herman
2016 - Purdue - Jeff Brohm
2016 - Oregon - Willie Taggart
2016 - Minnesota - PJ Fleck
2016 - Baylor - Matt Rhule
2017 - Nebraska - Scott Frost
2017 - Arkansas - Chad Morris
2018 - Texas Tech - Matt Wells
2018 - Georgia Tech - Geoff Collins
2018 - Kansas State - Chris Klieman
2018 - West Virginia - Neal Brown

Hot Assistants
2009 - Louisville - Charlie Strong
2010 - Florida - Will Muschamp
2010 - Indiana - Kevin Wilson
2010 - Vanderbilt - James Franklin
2011 - Pittsburgh - Paul Chryst
2011 - West Virginia - Dana Holgorsen
2012 - Texas Tech - Kliff Kingsbury
2012 - Kentucky - Mark Stoops
2013 - Vanderbilt - Derek Mason
2014 - Pittsburgh - Pat Narduzzi
2014 - Kansas - David Beaty
2015 - Rutgers - Chris Ash
2015 - Maryland - DJ Durkin
2015 - Georgia - Kirby Smart
2016 - Cal - Justin Wilcox
2017 - Tennessee - Jeremy Pruitt
2017 - Oregon State - Jonathan Smith
2018 - Colorado - Mel Tucker
2018 - Maryland - Mike Locksley

Retreads
2009 - Texas Tech - Tommy Tuberville
2011 - Washington State - Mike Leach
2011 - Ohio State - Urban Meyer
2011 - Kansas - Charlie Weis
2011 - Arizona - Rich Rodriguez
2013 - Louisville - Bobby Petrino
2015 - South Carolina - Will Muschamp
2015 - Miami - Mark Richt
2017 - Arizona - Kevin Sumlin
2018 - North Carolina - Mack Brown
2018 - Kansas - Les Miles

Stolen from another major conference School
2009 - USC - Lane Kiffin
2010 - Maryland - Randy Edsall
2011 - Arizona State - Todd Graham
2012 - Arkansas - Bret Bielema
2013 - Penn State - James Franklin
2013 - Texas - Charlie Strong
2013 - USC - Steve Sarkisian
2014 - Wisconsin - Paul Chryst
2014 - Oregon State - Gary Andersen
2014 - Nebraska - Mike Riley
2017 - Florida - Dan Mullen
2017 - Texas A&M - Jimbo Fisher
2017 - Florida State - Willie Taggart

NFL Hires
2010 - Colorado - Jon Embree
2011 - Penn State - Bill O'Brien
2011 - UCLA - Jim Mora Jr.
2014 - Michigan - Jim Harbaugh
2015 - Illinois - Lovie Smith
2017 - UCLA - Chip Kelly
2017 - Arizona State - Herm Edwards

Some reactions spring to mind

1. Obvious, but none of them seem like either a silver bullet to success or a certain disaster. They're all mixed.
2. That being said, I think it's surprising how bad the "stolen from another major conference school" category is. It definitely seems like there are a few "big" hire for the sake of a "big" hire at a school that self-consciously thinks it has to "win" the coaching carousel moves in there.
3. Seems like mid-major head coach is the highest percentage play, right?

If a careful reading of that still leaves you with a desire to hire, say, Bret Bielema over Jason Candle, we have different interpretations of the data. The idea that prior P5 success is a sure thing is pretty soundly disproven there.

And honestly, let's say Les Miles is interested in leaving Kansas for Illinois after this year. Is that REALLY a hire we would feel great about? At 66 years old, coming off probably a 3-9 type season at Kansas, with LSU looking a heck of a lot better since getting rid of him?

He's exceeded my expectations there so far, to be fair. Put together a good staff, filled up a competent recruiting class with genuine HS prospects (the thing that program desperately needed and which Miles was hired to do), and has made them look more competitive on the field so far.

But still, you look at that list and see what Dave Doeren, Dave Clawson, Matt Campbell, Jerry Kill, Dino Babers, Bronco Mendenhall, etc have done. It really shows that a coach the casual fan hasn't heard of is not something to fear or turn your nose up at.

Look, if Bob Stoops wants to take our job, great. But I think pushing for a P5 resume for the sake of a P5 resume would be a mistake.
 
#663      

BZuppke

Plainfield
Doeren is interesting. He was a successful coach at NIU before NC State. He has a Big Ten (Wisconsin) pedigree. Would he want to come back to the Midwest?
 
#664      

Deleted member 654622

D
Guest
Assume you mean Mark Richt. Here's some the of the backstory:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...-diaz-saga-a-harsh-reminder-cfb-is-a-business

Oddly, one could substitute "defense" for "offense" and it kinda sounds like the Lovie story sans the retirement, complete with nepotism.
tenor.gif
 
#665      

RedRocksIllini

Morrison, CO
I think it's good to bring up names and discuss their merits. My hope is that our AD has been doing this since at least the end of the EMU game, even if he hasn't made the decision to pull the trigger. I would think this would be a good time to start behind-the-scenes discussions to at least gauge interest should the job open up before bigger fish start asking the same questions. I could even see the unofficial decision being made after this weekend (although that is probably unlikely) and the next few weeks spent lining things up for next year. If we do decide to go forward with regime change, it would be good for us to have that all in place before most others have even started the process. The last thing we should want is a repeat of the Tennessee hire or the mess that ended (some might say started) with the Groce hiring in basketball.
 
#666      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I think it's good to bring up names and discuss their merits.....The last thing we should want is a repeat of the Tennessee hire or the mess that ended (some might say started) with the Groce hiring in basketball.

I would say the biggest advantage to really understanding the market is being able to have an immediately available, solid, well considered Plan B if Plan A doesn't work out. You gave two perfect examples where that wasn't the case.
 
#667      
I would say the biggest advantage to really understanding the market is being able to have an immediately available, solid, well considered Plan B if Plan A doesn't work out. You gave two perfect examples where that wasn't the case.
And what if plan B doesnt work? Maybe it would be better to see it as a top candidate, then a short list of others.
 
#669      

Deleted member 654622

D
Guest
I think it's good to bring up names and discuss their merits. My hope is that our AD has been doing this since at least the end of the EMU game, even if he hasn't made the decision to pull the trigger. I would think this would be a good time to start behind-the-scenes discussions to at least gauge interest should the job open up before bigger fish start asking the same questions. I could even see the unofficial decision being made after this weekend (although that is probably unlikely) and the next few weeks spent lining things up for next year. If we do decide to go forward with regime change, it would be good for us to have that all in place before most others have even started the process. The last thing we should want is a repeat of the Tennessee hire or the mess that ended (some might say started) with the Groce hiring in basketball.
Interesting take on the radio in terms of Rutgers with their current interim HC. If they hire someone currently not on the staff, and he is officially hired, he can get out there and start recruiting ASAP
 
#670      

Hoppy2105

Little Rock, Arkansas
Interesting take on the radio in terms of Rutgers with their current interim HC. If they hire someone currently not on the staff, and he is officially hired, he can get out there and start recruiting ASAP

As an AD, if you have made your decision, and your guaranteed target is not currently coaching, this probably isn’t a bad idea.

I guess it might be hard for that new coach to find a staff, though.
 
#671      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Somebody talk me out of Mike Tressel. Since he took over the solo DC role after Harlon Barnett left for Florida State they've been the #2 defense nationally per SP+ both last year and so far this year. What am I missing?
 
#672      

SampsonRelpenk

Edwardsville, IL
Somebody talk me out of Mike Tressel. Since he took over the solo DC role after Harlon Barnett left for Florida State they've been the #2 defense nationally per SP+ both last year and so far this year. What am I missing?
Recruiting isn't mentioned once in his bio. Is he active in that part of the program? Is he connected to any great offensive minds he could convince to join him (I'm guessing the nephew of Jim Tressel has some connections)? Would we just be chasing the ghost of Pat Narduzzi?

Personally I'd be very interested in going the Whiz Assistant route this time.
 
#673      
I am bored today.....everyone reply with their top 3 mainly realistic choices!
 
#674      
I'm more interested in your top three. I guess without really knowing the players and doing my research, my preference
would be for a power 5 experienced coach (either coordinator or head coach looking to move on) who has a decent track
record of resurrecting programs, has experience in recruiting florida, Illinois and texas, can keep the existing team together
and add key pieces and a connection to a group of assistants who might follow. Asking too much?
 
#675      
OK, intriguing question...Off the top of my head, Brent Venables and Matt Campbell.
Go for the gold!
 
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