2019-20 Coaching Discussion/Carousel
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I'm in for Jeff Monken.
He can win without top notch talent. And I feel like Illinois, despite so many years of bumbling, still attracts higher rated talent than Army. I understand the offense concerns and the type of recruit the offense would attract, but I don't think anyone would be put off by the offense with the exception of a traditional passing QB. We could still attract athletic QBs and likely be able to recruit some that want to play QB but are more likely to go to other schools as athletes or at other positions. But it boils down to the fact that he can win no matter the recruiting and academic difficulties and we need to try something new. The current formula and the formula since about 2008 has not been working.
He can win without top notch talent. And I feel like Illinois, despite so many years of bumbling, still attracts higher rated talent than Army. I understand the offense concerns and the type of recruit the offense would attract, but I don't think anyone would be put off by the offense with the exception of a traditional passing QB. We could still attract athletic QBs and likely be able to recruit some that want to play QB but are more likely to go to other schools as athletes or at other positions. But it boils down to the fact that he can win no matter the recruiting and academic difficulties and we need to try something new. The current formula and the formula since about 2008 has not been working.
This disinterested thing is a red herring. Lovie was, is, and will be a low key guy. Next thing we will be talking about his beard. So far, he has not gotten the job done. Maybe his personality is not right for the college game, maybe his defensive scheme. Injuries to Roundtree and Beason have unquestionably hurt the defense. The season will play out and we will likely win four or five games. I prefer Whitman consider a coach in waiting approach, possibly a defensive coordinator not currently here. I think Lovie has improved his recruiting approach. A complete redo will be painful. I acknowledge the current situation is also painful.
Whether or not to keep or replace Lovie is almost like choosing between cutting off a finger or cutting off a toe. I have all ten of each set of digits, so I am not sure which is more painful.
We are fortunate we get to make these decisions from an computer and not in real life. They are truly not easy decisions, especially if Lovie scraps wins together down the stretch.
BWBW:
Better analogy- It's definitely a finger, maybe even a thumb. You can hide the missing toe. No embarrassment. There will be here.
Here's how it could play out:
JW: We need a change. How about we find a top Defensive Coordinator/ pay him that way and you are the CEO just like at ASU.
(the Herm Edwards model) We lose no recruits and who knows, if the DC is really top he might draw another def. player/
transfer or two.
Lovie: No thanks, I've had enough. What exactly is my buyout ? He rides off into the sunset giving it his best try and a friend of
the University.
Better analogy- It's definitely a finger, maybe even a thumb. You can hide the missing toe. No embarrassment. There will be here.
Here's how it could play out:
JW: We need a change. How about we find a top Defensive Coordinator/ pay him that way and you are the CEO just like at ASU.
(the Herm Edwards model) We lose no recruits and who knows, if the DC is really top he might draw another def. player/
transfer or two.
Lovie: No thanks, I've had enough. What exactly is my buyout ? He rides off into the sunset giving it his best try and a friend of
the University.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Heupel arguably has a better job than Illinois right now. Whatever level of unrealistic Mike Norvell or Luke Fickell are, he's a step beyond that.
But anyway, I don't even think it needs to be flat-out dominating, it's just guys who are the cream rising to the top of a lower conference. And that's a pretty small list of guys if you limit it to coaches of prime hiring age (Rocky Long is amazing but he's 69), and who don't otherwise have blemishes on their resume (Skip Holtz was a disaster at a South Florida he inherited in great shape).
Norvell, Fickell, Heupel, Bryan Harsin (the most unavailable of all), Jeff Monken, Bill Clark, Seth Littrell, Jason Candle, Billy Napier, Blake Anderson.
You could argue Craig Bohl. Sonny Dykes and perhaps Lane Kiffin have Power Five pasts that might be interpreted in different ways. And then there are some guys where it kinda depends on how the next two months go. Jay Norvell (not looking good), Nick Rolovich, Tim Lester (Illinois guy, they play Toledo on Saturday), Lance Leipold and Chris Creighton are kinda on that borderline, Willie Fritz is one to watch (they play Army on Saturday).
When Oregon State was going through its head coaching search, Baldwin's name popped up quite a bit. I just haven't seen enough from him at the major college level to see that he warrants a head coaching gig at Illinois. I'd be pretty luke warm with that hire. Wilcox I think would be a great hire, but I have my doubts on whether either would come.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Your Coaching Carousel Theater for Saturday looks like this:
Tulane (-3) at Army, 11AM on CBS Sports Network
Western Michigan (+2.5) at Toledo, 2:30 PM on ESPN+
Interesting that Tulane is favored. If you're like me and have a second TV that you drag into the living room for college football Saturdays, and have an ESPN+ subscription through your Xbox, this will make a nice accompaniment to Iowa at Michigan then the Illini on the main TV
(I am a sick, sick man)
Tulane (-3) at Army, 11AM on CBS Sports Network
Western Michigan (+2.5) at Toledo, 2:30 PM on ESPN+
Interesting that Tulane is favored. If you're like me and have a second TV that you drag into the living room for college football Saturdays, and have an ESPN+ subscription through your Xbox, this will make a nice accompaniment to Iowa at Michigan then the Illini on the main TV
(I am a sick, sick man)
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I think the way to think about it is that we've now gotten more data on the guy. His record at Eastern Washington made him an interesting prospect, and as with any coach, there was uncertainty, maybe he flourishes at a higher level, maybe he doesn't. He got that chance and he hasn't.
Your Coaching Carousel Theater for Saturday looks like this:
Tulane (-3) at Army, 11AM on CBS Sports Network
Western Michigan (+2.5) at Toledo, 2:30 PM on ESPN+
Interesting that Tulane is favored. If you're like me and have a second TV that you drag into the living room for college football Saturdays, and have an ESPN+ subscription through your Xbox, this will make a nice accompaniment to Iowa at Michigan then the Illini on the main TV
(I am a sick, sick man)
Tulane is first in their Division, with decent wins and hung in there va Auburn. Houston is better than their record indicates too I guess.
If it helps, I’ve been saying this for years. So fee free to attribute it to me and avoid biting that tongue. :thumb:
Deleted member 654622
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Guest
I wanted to make sure my disinterested comment was not based off his on the field demeaner. I actually appreciate his ability to remain calm in the heat of battle. That is why I threw in the disclaimer before the comment. The disinterested opinion comes off what I hear/read about Lovie's availability/face around campus/Champaign. If he is in his office working till 10pm every night then that is not an issue.
Harsin and Bill Clark are definitely heavy leans toward unattainable for obvious reasons. Sonny Sykes was a disaster at Cal and seems better off at home as well, not sure I see him as a realistic option either. I need to dig deeper into the others.
If the guys u say are unattainable, are truly unattainable, I need to start preparing for a disappointing hire.
I really don't see it that way at all, assuming your expectations haven't run wild (Which is generally the root cause of feeling like we underwhelmed at hiring time). I see a lot of good names there that are realistic options for us.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Addazio at BC, Franklin at Vandy, Brohm at Purdue, these are the kind we can take inspiration from. Tough jobs that had been in the gutter, but there wasn't anything massively broken roster-wise, they make respectable but not headline-grabbing hires, and are much improved immediately.
No shocking year 1 upsets for any of the three, no miracle raft of super-transfers or something, they just got a better set of hands in the dough, and presto, they were better than and closing games against the mediocre opponents on their schedule.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
That's a valid question and to a point, when he's had the record he's had....there is a burden of proof that comes with supporting him.
I think the recruiting has picked up substantially. We have a pipeline to a critical area that we haven't had since Locksley (DC Area).
The level of incoming transfers, this year, have come with a five star reputation from elite programs(USC, Georgia, Alabama, etc..)
I think that he's made his kids accountable. There's no nonsense when it comes to the perception he wants of his program.
The win total since he took over has increased.
They are more competitive and the games, at very least, have been entertaining from beginning to end.
I don't know how this is going to all work out. I'm hoping for the best. I just don't believe that getting a 4th coach in 10 years is a good look....at all. We go through coaches like the Bears go through quarterbacks!
DaChief4ever
- Urbana
Progress in Big Ten football is only measured in ONE WAY..........W's.
The win total has (unfortunately) not increased. In the 2 years prior to Lovie we went 6-6 and 5-7. Lovie has yet to reach 5-7.
Also, the narrative that we fire coaches to quickly isn’t true either. The only recent coach that has been fired before getting 4 full years was Beckman, and that was due to scandal. Cubit’s one year interim duty also isn’t a true data point since he was an interim.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I would go so far as to say it's a flagrant lie.
Zook, Beckman, Cubit, Smith plus a new hire(if many get their wish)....that's a lot of changes in the time provided. That's just
opinion.
You think this many changes is the norm? Lovie's first full recruiting class are what, Juniors now? If there were to be a change, his Seniors would finishing their careers under another coach. That time frame doesn't seem right to me.
If I'm a parent of a high school recruit, how could I be assured that the coach who I'm sending my kid to play for isn't on a three year leash?
I think it's a bad look.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Because the Cubit situation was unique, for methodological consistency let's take a look at other programs that had a full-year interim guy, and count how many head coaches they have had since we hired Ron Zook in 2005 shall we? I'll asterisk the interim guy.
Illinois - 4: Ron Zook, Tim Beckman, Bill Cubit*, Lovie Smith
Ohio State - 4: Jim Tressel, Luke Fickell*, Urban Meyer, Ryan Day
Baylor - 4: Guy Morriss, Art Briles, Jim Grobe*, Matt Rhule
Arkansas - 5: Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino, John L Smith*, Bret Bielema, Chad Morris
North Carolina - 5: John Bunting, Butch Davis, Everett Withers*, Larry Fedora, Mack Brown
Minnesota - 5: Glen Mason, Tim Brewster, Jerry Kill, Tracy Claeys*, PJ Fleck
So yeah, I'd say it's pretty much the norm.
Zook was here for 7 years, but I get why you included him. Beckman was fired because of mistreatment of players, literally the week before a season started. Cubit was an interim HC, who was moved to permanent HC because of an athletic department in flux. I get that those are excuses, but please explain how they aren't valid.
I'm sure there's some argument for not keeping Zook, but his time was up. If you try to argue Beckman's firing, you're a bad person, full stop. Cubit's firing probably has the most to question, but it was a uniquely crappy situation, but I honestly can't say that if JW (who I truly believe got the job because he could pull Lovie here, given the timing of everything) kept Cubit for ~4 years we wouldn't be in a similar situation.
So yeah, there's been a lot of turn over since Zook left, but there's been a lot of unique, (hopefully) once-in-a-program situations that have gotten us here.
Any half way decent HC can explain away the past as just that. Lovie's had his time to show absolute improvement. He moved the needle from what, 0 B1G wins to maybe 2? In 4 years (or 3 if it makes you happy), I'd argue 75% of the HC candidates could do the same thing. We don't fire guys too early, we get ourselves in situations that require it.
And it's probably the laziest and worst excuse to keep Lovie around anyone can come up with.
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