2019-20 Coaching Discussion/Carousel

Twangers said:

Fair to an extent. My concern is that kids will and their parents will start tracking which waiver claim arguments work and which don't. The "my coach isn't here anymore" line worked. It could have an impact.

The NCAA needs to figure out what they're doing here. The transfer market is a colossal nightmare.

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Personally I am on DaChief4ever's side here. If kids like Beason transfer out, that really sucks. But what sucks more is having that hope of that talent taking us somewhere and just to get the giblet kick. Get a real staff in here and start making progress

Dude said:

Personally I am on DaChief4ever's side here. If kids like Beason transfer out, that really sucks. But what sucks more is having that hope of that talent taking us somewhere and just to get the giblet kick. Get a real staff in here and start making progress

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I understand completely. That said, the kid doesn't always get the best for themselves in that scenario. As Lovie Smith said himself, sometimes divorce is a good thing.

I don't have the answer on solving this thing, I don't even have a decent idea (Bite my tongue but Jim Harbaugh's thought of giving every kid one free transfer isn't the worst thing I've heard). What I do know, however, is that the current transfer market is broken. It's impossible to decipher, with zero standards and a complete and utter lack of transparency. It's the wild west out there and that can't continue. If it does, I think historical data on how many kids leave a program in a given year and for which reasons kinda go out the window.

So here's 10 years of data on Power Five head coaching hires, broken down by where they came from:

Internal Replacements
2009 - Kentucky - Joker Phillips
2009 - Florida State - Jimbo Fisher
2010 - Stanford - David Shaw
2011 - Rutgers - Kyle Flood
2012 - Syracuse - Scott Shafer
2012 - Oregon - Mark Helfrich
2015 - USC - Clay Helton
2015 - Missouri - Barry Odom
2015 - Minnesota - Tracy Claeys
2016 - Ole Miss - Matt Luke
2016 - LSU - Ed Orgeron
2016 - Indiana - Tom Allen
2017 - Oregon - Mario Cristobal
2018 - Ohio State - Ryan Day
2018 - Miami - Manny Diaz

Mid-Major Head Coaches
2009 - Virginia - Mike London
2009 - Notre Dame - Brian Kelly
2009 - Tennessee - Derek Dooley
2009 - Kansas - Turner Gill
2010 - Michigan - Brady Hoke
2010 - Pittsburgh - Todd Graham
2010 - Minnesota - Jerry Kill
2010 - Miami - Al Golden
2011 - Texas A&M - Kevin Sumlin
2011 - North Carolina - Larry Fedora
2011 - Illinois - Tim Beckman
2011 - Ole Miss - Hugh Freeze
2012 - Wisconsin - Gary Andersen
2012 - Auburn - Gus Malzahn
2012 - Boston College - Steve Addazio
2012 - Colorado - Mike MacIntyre
2012 - NC State - Dave Doeren
2012 - Purdue - Darrell Hazell
2012 - Tennessee - Butch Jones
2012 - Cal - Sonny Dykes
2013 - Washington - Chris Petersen
2013 - Wake Forest - Dave Clawson
2014 - Florida - Jim McElwain
2015 - Virginia Tech - Justin Fuente
2015 - Virginia - Bronco Mendenhall
2015 - Syracuse - Dino Babers
2015 - Iowa State - Matt Campbell
2016 - Texas - Tom Herman
2016 - Purdue - Jeff Brohm
2016 - Oregon - Willie Taggart
2016 - Minnesota - PJ Fleck
2016 - Baylor - Matt Rhule
2017 - Nebraska - Scott Frost
2017 - Arkansas - Chad Morris
2018 - Texas Tech - Matt Wells
2018 - Georgia Tech - Geoff Collins
2018 - Kansas State - Chris Klieman
2018 - West Virginia - Neal Brown

Hot Assistants
2009 - Louisville - Charlie Strong
2010 - Florida - Will Muschamp
2010 - Indiana - Kevin Wilson
2010 - Vanderbilt - James Franklin
2011 - Pittsburgh - Paul Chryst
2011 - West Virginia - Dana Holgorsen
2012 - Texas Tech - Kliff Kingsbury
2012 - Kentucky - Mark Stoops
2013 - Vanderbilt - Derek Mason
2014 - Pittsburgh - Pat Narduzzi
2014 - Kansas - David Beaty
2015 - Rutgers - Chris Ash
2015 - Maryland - DJ Durkin
2015 - Georgia - Kirby Smart
2016 - Cal - Justin Wilcox
2017 - Tennessee - Jeremy Pruitt
2017 - Oregon State - Jonathan Smith
2018 - Colorado - Mel Tucker
2018 - Maryland - Mike Locksley

Retreads
2009 - Texas Tech - Tommy Tuberville
2011 - Washington State - Mike Leach
2011 - Ohio State - Urban Meyer
2011 - Kansas - Charlie Weis
2011 - Arizona - Rich Rodriguez
2013 - Louisville - Bobby Petrino
2015 - South Carolina - Will Muschamp
2015 - Miami - Mark Richt
2017 - Arizona - Kevin Sumlin
2018 - North Carolina - Mack Brown
2018 - Kansas - Les Miles

Stolen from another major conference School
2009 - USC - Lane Kiffin
2010 - Maryland - Randy Edsall
2011 - Arizona State - Todd Graham
2012 - Arkansas - Bret Bielema
2013 - Penn State - James Franklin
2013 - Texas - Charlie Strong
2013 - USC - Steve Sarkisian
2014 - Wisconsin - Paul Chryst
2014 - Oregon State - Gary Andersen
2014 - Nebraska - Mike Riley
2017 - Florida - Dan Mullen
2017 - Texas A&M - Jimbo Fisher
2017 - Florida State - Willie Taggart

NFL Hires
2010 - Colorado - Jon Embree
2011 - Penn State - Bill O'Brien
2011 - UCLA - Jim Mora Jr.
2014 - Michigan - Jim Harbaugh
2015 - Illinois - Lovie Smith
2017 - UCLA - Chip Kelly
2017 - Arizona State - Herm Edwards

Some reactions spring to mind

1. Obvious, but none of them seem like either a silver bullet to success or a certain disaster. They're all mixed.
2. That being said, I think it's surprising how bad the "stolen from another major conference school" category is. It definitely seems like there are a few "big" hire for the sake of a "big" hire at a school that self-consciously thinks it has to "win" the coaching carousel moves in there.
3. Seems like mid-major head coach is the highest percentage play, right?

Discussing Lovie's hiring of assistants.

Do you think that Lovie is unable to identify good assistants, U of I does not pay a competitive salary, good assistants do not want to work for Lovie, Lovie prefers yes-men/nepotism, or something else.

The Lovie experiment could still possibly work if Lovie were willing to be the administrator/figurehead and hire very excellent assistants to recruit the players, develop the players, and set up the game plans.

I wonder whether Coach Tepper would have lasted longer if he had kept Greg Landry as OC.

I have been such a Lovie apologist who just knew it was going to work, finding excuses after excuses. This was the year I knew we would see a difference. The roster was going to be experienced and mature. We would see the true genius of Lovie's plan. Then to look like we have outside Akron has been such a kick in the nuts. And we all know Lovie's demeanor is cool and calm, but he really looks disinterested in the overall IL program. I am on the outside looking in. I have no sources. But if we get trucked by Minnesota with two weeks to prepare, someone would have to convince me that he isn't here just to collect a paycheck.

Win or go home Lovie!

Wow, phenomenal information Gritty. This is the type of data we need to look into on a very in-depth level.

You're right, definitely a mixed bag. Seems like a mid-major or a hot assistant is probably your best opportunity for success. Take out Urban Meyer and Leach and the re-tread group is UGLY. NFL group seems to be a real mixed bag of some decent performances and some stinkers. Didn't pay much attention to the internal names, will later, as that doesn't apply to us (At least, it doesn't in my mind. Rod Smith isn't ready for this).

BZuppke said:

I’ve always said the best hire is a guy who has been a head coach at the P5 college level and been successful. Mike White and Mackovic fit that bill and no hire since has. Beckman proved he didn’t belong on this stage and Zook was phenomenally unsuccessful at Florida (based on their talent). Look at Lou Holtz at Minnesota, Hayden Fry at Iowa and others. This is why a Les Miles type is a good hire although it may be too big a climb at Kansas for him.

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Be aware that Oklahoma hired Bob Stoops, DC at Florida. Oklahoma. Georgia hired Mark Richt, OC at FSU. Georgia.

If Lovie is hired there is no need to restrict the search process. Get a damn guy that can win here. Period.

Twangers said:

Wow, phenomenal information Gritty. This is the type of data we need to look into on a very in-depth level.

You're right, definitely a mixed bag. Seems like a mid-major or a hot assistant is probably your best opportunity for success. Take out Urban Meyer and Leach and the re-tread group is UGLY. NFL group seems to be a real mixed bag of some decent performances and some stinkers. Didn't pay much attention to the internal names, will later, as that doesn't apply to us (At least, it doesn't in my mind. Rod Smith isn't ready for this).

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I would think the next logical level would be to break those coaches down into their specialty - Recruiting/Xs and Os/ Player development. Throw their winning percentage in and see which group is most successful

One potential correlation I see. I'd say there are 5 in the mid-major list that I'd regard as total beginning-to-end disasters, Turner Gill, Derek Dooley, Tim Beckman, Darrell Hazell, and increasingly Chad Morris.

I'm pretty sure there are only four coaches on the list who won 7 or fewer games in their final season at the mid-major: Turner Gill, Derek Dooley, Chad Morris and Steve Addazio.

So mid-major head coaches who won at least 8 games in their final season before making the move, the only extinction level catastrophes are Beckman and Hazell, two that hit very close to home and perhaps cloud our judgement as being likelier outcomes than they are.

Just a thought.

ChiefGritty said:

One potential correlation I see. I'd say there are 5 in the mid-major list that I'd regard as total beginning-to-end disasters, Turner Gill, Derek Dooley, Tim Beckman, Darrell Hazell, and increasingly Chad Morris.

I'm pretty sure there are only four coaches on the list who won 7 or fewer games in their final season at the mid-major: Turner Gill, Derek Dooley, Chad Morris and Steve Addazio.

So mid-major head coaches who won at least 8 games in their final season before making the move, the only extinction level catastrophes are Beckman and Hazell, two that hit very close to home and perhaps cloud our judgement as being likelier outcomes than they are.

Just a thought.

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Probably need an asterisk for Mike London. As he didn't really come from a mid-major, it's hard to speak about his record before he took the UVA job.

Or maybe a separate category for sub-division hires, assuming there are more than a couple 2-3 that qualify.

Twangers said:

Probably need an asterisk for Mike London. As he didn't really come from a mid-major, it's hard to speak about his record before he took the UVA job.

Or maybe a separate category for sub-division hires, assuming there are more than a couple 2-3 that qualify.

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London was the toast of the town there for five minutes when he had that one good year and was recruiting like crazy. The fact that they hung onto him long enough to make his tenure look so bad shows that it had a moment of excitement.

There are other guys up there regarded as failures in retrospect that had their moments. Michigan fans will pretend that Hokeamania never happened, but it did, I saw it with my own eyes.

ChiefGritty said:

London was the toast of the town there for five minutes when he had that one good year and was recruiting like crazy. The fact that they hung onto him long enough to make his tenure look so bad shows that it had a moment of excitement.

There are other guys up there regarded as failures in retrospect that had their moments. Michigan fans will pretend that Hokeamania never happened, but it did, I saw it with my own eyes.

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Ah, the classic "side of the ball" conundrum. It didn't get any publicity there because UVA fans were just happy to have good kids coming in but London essentially used his defensive resume to recruit a whole pile of really good defensive prospects and ignored the offense ( I think they had only 2 or 3 4* star offensive recruits in his 5 some years there). They had a decent offensive staff too, Bill Lazor was over there and he can coach but he never had anyone to work with and it fizzled out.

Hard to win in the ACC when you can't score TDs.

End point though, I don't know that I;d say London counts as a mid-major who won more than 7 games in his final year. He and Klieman are in their own group, so to speak.

Twangers said:

End point though, I don't know that I;d say London counts as a mid-major who won more than 7 games in his final year. He and Klieman are in their own group, so to speak.

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I may be missing some, but the only four 1-AA to Power Five jumps I can recall are London, Klieman, Paul Wulff at Wazzu and Jim Tressel at Ohio State.

So three national champions and an alum who was doing okay. In basketball the alum at a lower level doing okay category includes Kim Anderson at Mizzou. Don't hire the alum doing okay at a lower level, folks.

EDIT: Oh shoot, you know who I'm forgetting? Jim Harbaugh. At FCS non-scholarship school San Diego. What a world.

Im big on Chip Long... here is slightly biased article on him and also mentions ND recruiting

https://slapthesign.com/2019/09/24/notre-dame-long-blame-offense-struggles/

ChiefGritty said:

I may be missing some, but the only four 1-AA to Power Five jumps I can recall are London, Klieman, Paul Wulff at Wazzu and Jim Tressel at Ohio State.

So three national champions and an alum who was doing okay. In basketball the alum at a lower level doing okay category includes Kim Anderson at Mizzou. Don't hire the alum doing okay at a lower level, folks.

EDIT: Oh shoot, you know who I'm forgetting? Jim Harbaugh. At FCS non-scholarship school San Diego. What a world.

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Wow, I forgot about Jim Tressel. That seems so long ago.

Typically the sub-division guys make short term stops (1-2 years) either at mid-majors (Like Dino Babers) or as a coordinator (Like Joe Moorhead and Dave Clawson). Very rare to see that big of a jump. Beau Baldwin is a guy who fits this mold that is an interesting watch for us. Has no midwest ties though and he'll need a lot of help recruiting.

Twangers said:

Beau Baldwin is a guy who fits this mold that is an interesting watch for us. Has no midwest ties though and he'll need a lot of help recruiting.

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Cal's offense has been horrible. 118th nationally per S&P last year, 98th so far this year.

One thing I think I'm taking from all that data I put together is that, while not totally foolproof, if a coach seems like they're outclassing a lesser conference, it's probably because they are, and you might just not want to overthink it.

ChiefGritty said:

Cal's offense has been horrible. 118th nationally per S&P last year, 98th so far this year.

One thing I think I'm taking from all that data I put together is that, while not totally foolproof, if a coach seems like they're outclassing a lesser conference, it's probably because they are, and you might just not want to overthink it.

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Cal has a horrible roster and didn't really hit the transfer market offensively, that's the gist of it. Now with Garbers out (At least I assume he's out, looked pretty serious live) it's going to get much worse. Another reason Justin Wilcox can write his own ticket. He's doing so much with so little, my hat is off to him.

I would agree wholeheartedly. If a coach is flat out dominating some mid-major conference, there's a reason for it and we shouldn't try to be smarter than we really are. Josh Heupel?

https://www.onefootdown.com/2017/1/...imbush-zone-read-brian-kelly-college-football

This is from 2017, but it has definitely put me on the Chip Long train. Absolutely love the way he creates mismatches and misdirection plays (even a little RPO ) in order to gain every advantage. Hopefully his time at Illinois encourages him to come back and there are no hard feelings. He is an eye-witness to what this fanbase could be like on any given gameday if the team is competitive. (ASU Game 2011)

#HireChipLong

SKane said:

Discussing Lovie's hiring of assistants.

Do you think that Lovie is unable to identify good assistants, U of I does not pay a competitive salary, good assistants do not want to work for Lovie, Lovie prefers yes-men/nepotism, or something else.

The Lovie experiment could still possibly work if Lovie were willing to be the administrator/figurehead and hire very excellent assistants to recruit the players, develop the players, and set up the game plans.

I wonder whether Coach Tepper would have lasted longer if he had kept Greg Landry as OC.

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Part of the problem with Smith’s staffs is that he was hired at such an awkward time that he couldn’t really put together his ideal staff when coming in and had to promise the guys who did come in that first year a second year. It’s a hard ask to get a guy to move his family in March for a job that might not last past November.

it’s just kind of cascaded ever since.

ChiefGritty said:

2. That being said, I think it's surprising how bad the "stolen from another major conference school" category is.

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I wonder how many of these were the proverbial “one step ahead of the posse.” That is to say, the reason the coach agreed to move from one to the other was because he knew his bad recruiting or other problems were going to catch up with him, and he decided to jump ship before it reflected on his record. He then wasn’t so lucky at the next school and the posse caught up with him, so to speak.

I will be interested to see what approach JW takes with making this next hire. Seems a bit of a stretch from going from an NFL coach to a mid-major hope but........we are where we are. Personally, I think it will be a (not sure where it will fall on your list, Gritty) mid-major/retread/someone who has fallen off the list type hire that he will target. I think after this last debacle he needs to think about his job as well so it better be a splash hire that everyone will rally behind........or can at least see some wins in the future.

Ander1345 said:

Yes, they should have won the Nebraska game. Any team spotted 4 extra possessions should have won that game.

That's precisely the problem. This game wasn't close even though we lost by four. They cleaned up the penalties but gave up a ton of yards and couldn't get off the field on third down. They found other ways to lose the game after shoring up other areas. A reasonably competitive team wins that game handily. We are barely a complete team.

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I think that you're completely off base on why they gave up the yards and why they couldn't get off the field on third down. The defense was out there for 100 plays and Peters was 9-22, 1-11 on third down. His defense did get the turnovers and was directly responsible for 21 of our points. That's water under the bridge now however. His choice of coordinators and play at the QB position is a separate conversation.

Bigger picture. I don't think it's how many we lose(if we lose). It will be how we lose. If we're 4-8 and most every game is coming down to the 4th quarter, I don't have a doubt that he'll be back. Now, if we're down four scores and are losing 49-14....which probably shows his players quit on him, that's a different story. Admittedly, "we" should be 3-1(minimally)....but maybe people should hold off on storming the castle until we see how the season unfolds.

Dude said:

Personally I am on DaChief4ever's side here. If kids like Beason transfer out, that really sucks. But what sucks more is having that hope of that talent taking us somewhere and just to get the giblet kick. Get a real staff in here and start making progress

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"All that talent"......The kid you just mentioned never played a down because of a knee, our talented freshman QB hasn't thrown a pass, our best pass rusher hasn't taken a snap because of a back and he's had how many transfer out due to personal misconduct?

Has he had some misfires.... absolutely. Has he had some successes..... absolutely. Has he had some rough luck.... absolutely. Has he had injuries at positions where they are simply too thin....yes.

Let this play out. One conference game into the season and there's more posts on the coaching carousel thread than the game thread.

Hopingfor500 said:

"All that talent"......The kid you just mentioned never played a down because of a knee, our talented freshman QB hasn't thrown a pass, our best pass rusher hasn't taken a snap because of a back and he's had how many transfer out due to personal misconduct?

Has he had some misfires.... absolutely. Has he had some successes..... absolutely. Has he had some rough luck.... absolutely. Has he had injuries at positions where they are simply too thin....yes.

Let this play out. One conference game into the season and there's more posts on the coaching carousel thread than the game thread.

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I'm not going to deter anyone from supporting this team and this staff, so don't take this as argumentative. What success do you consider he has had here?
Its not that it is only one conference game into this season, its the lack of progress over his entire tenure.