Is that guy a chiropractor? Or like Myofascial Release, or both?
Illini Basketball 2020-2021
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Is that guy a chiropractor? Or like Myofascial Release, or both?
3 predictive models that project our teams future capabilities are Net Rankings (NR), Basketball Power Index (BPI), and Kenpom (KP).
Net Ranking: 10 || BPI: 10 || Kenpom: 10
AP Poll: 22
You look at those models and you should be saying, "wow Top 10 Illinois, this is great". but the reality of the situation is that Illinois is 5-3-0-2 on the season (That last 2 indicates the Nebraska and MSU games that are lost to COVID, maybe we'll make them up, maybe not). That means we are about half way thru the season with a 62.5% win rate; on pace to finish 11.25-6.75-0-2. Maybe we get both those games back on the schedule and Illinois comes up with 2 more wins bringing us to 7-3-0-0; so maybe we're looking to finish closer to 12.5-7.5-0-0. Either way, when I look at our remaining schedule I'm struggling to find another 6.25 wins (or 5.5 wins and wins over MSU & Nebrasksa) to finish at 62.5%; let alone anyway for us to improve upon that without dramatic improvements to our team. The fact is that we are now 8 games in with 3 loses against teams that are not even really title contenders while the top of the conference has only 1 loss. Things are not looking good and I hate relying on other teams to mess up for us to succeed.
To even entertain a conversation about being a Conference Championship Contender at this point, looking at our remaining schedule, the way I see it is that we can lose 1 of the 3 games on the road against Indiana, Minnesota, or Ohio St; and we can lose 1 of the 2 games against Wisconsin. All other games have now become must-win-situations or a regular season championship is no longer on the table. If we win all of those "must win" games, we would finish the season 13-5-0-2 (72.2%). If we get the COVID games back on our schedule and win those, we would finish the season 15-5-0-0 (75%). Even that is unlikely to win the title out-right, but at least we'd have a realistic shot at splitting it.
Michigan 6-1 has 1 covid postponement against PSU. The hardest games remaining on their schedule are vs Illinois, @Wisconsin, vs Iowa, and @Ohio St. If they lose 4 more games they would finish 14-5-0-1 (73.7%) or 15-5-0-0 (75%) if the covid game is made up.
Iowa 6-1 has 2 covid postponements against MSU and Nebraska. The hardest games remaining on their schedule are @Illinois, vs Ohio St, @Wisconsin, @Ohio St, @Michigan, and vs Wisconsin. If they lose 4 more games they would finish 13-5-0-2 (72.2%) or 15-5-0-0 (75%) if the covid games are made up.
Illinois' schedule going forward (NR/BPI/KP):
vs Penn St (NR): 45/52/47 - must win
vs Iowa (4): 3/2/3 - must win
@ Indiana (NR): 58/31/32 - must win 2/3
vs Wisconsin (10): 16/12/11 - must win 1/2
@ Michigan (7): 5/11/5 - must win
vs Northwestern (NR): 65/65/67 - must win
@ Minnesota (17): 26/47/23 - must win 2/3
vs Nebraska: 166/129/126 - must win
@ Wisconsin (10): 16/12/11 - must win 1/2
@ Ohio St (15): 20/16/16 - must win 2/3
makeup @ Nebraska - must win if played
makeup @ MSU - must win if played
What we really can't afford at this point is for Michigan or Iowa to get covid pauses in their program, since we need them to lose 3/4 more games for us to have a shot at winning the title.
Net Ranking: 10 || BPI: 10 || Kenpom: 10
AP Poll: 22
You look at those models and you should be saying, "wow Top 10 Illinois, this is great". but the reality of the situation is that Illinois is 5-3-0-2 on the season (That last 2 indicates the Nebraska and MSU games that are lost to COVID, maybe we'll make them up, maybe not). That means we are about half way thru the season with a 62.5% win rate; on pace to finish 11.25-6.75-0-2. Maybe we get both those games back on the schedule and Illinois comes up with 2 more wins bringing us to 7-3-0-0; so maybe we're looking to finish closer to 12.5-7.5-0-0. Either way, when I look at our remaining schedule I'm struggling to find another 6.25 wins (or 5.5 wins and wins over MSU & Nebrasksa) to finish at 62.5%; let alone anyway for us to improve upon that without dramatic improvements to our team. The fact is that we are now 8 games in with 3 loses against teams that are not even really title contenders while the top of the conference has only 1 loss. Things are not looking good and I hate relying on other teams to mess up for us to succeed.
To even entertain a conversation about being a Conference Championship Contender at this point, looking at our remaining schedule, the way I see it is that we can lose 1 of the 3 games on the road against Indiana, Minnesota, or Ohio St; and we can lose 1 of the 2 games against Wisconsin. All other games have now become must-win-situations or a regular season championship is no longer on the table. If we win all of those "must win" games, we would finish the season 13-5-0-2 (72.2%). If we get the COVID games back on our schedule and win those, we would finish the season 15-5-0-0 (75%). Even that is unlikely to win the title out-right, but at least we'd have a realistic shot at splitting it.
Michigan 6-1 has 1 covid postponement against PSU. The hardest games remaining on their schedule are vs Illinois, @Wisconsin, vs Iowa, and @Ohio St. If they lose 4 more games they would finish 14-5-0-1 (73.7%) or 15-5-0-0 (75%) if the covid game is made up.
Iowa 6-1 has 2 covid postponements against MSU and Nebraska. The hardest games remaining on their schedule are @Illinois, vs Ohio St, @Wisconsin, @Ohio St, @Michigan, and vs Wisconsin. If they lose 4 more games they would finish 13-5-0-2 (72.2%) or 15-5-0-0 (75%) if the covid games are made up.
Illinois' schedule going forward (NR/BPI/KP):
vs Penn St (NR): 45/52/47 - must win
vs Iowa (4): 3/2/3 - must win
@ Indiana (NR): 58/31/32 - must win 2/3
vs Wisconsin (10): 16/12/11 - must win 1/2
@ Michigan (7): 5/11/5 - must win
vs Northwestern (NR): 65/65/67 - must win
@ Minnesota (17): 26/47/23 - must win 2/3
vs Nebraska: 166/129/126 - must win
@ Wisconsin (10): 16/12/11 - must win 1/2
@ Ohio St (15): 20/16/16 - must win 2/3
makeup @ Nebraska - must win if played
makeup @ MSU - must win if played
What we really can't afford at this point is for Michigan or Iowa to get covid pauses in their program, since we need them to lose 3/4 more games for us to have a shot at winning the title.
I am predicting us to finish at about 13-11 and needing to win a game in the BTT to make the NCAA field.
did Ayo and Kofi quit? You don't have to drink the kool-aid, but maybe try putting down the poison
Hello,
No, I just have us going 4-6 the rest of the season. This team is very flawed.
W- Penn St, Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana
L- Ohio St, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan,
Deleted member 747802
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Can't really argue this. The team has thus far shown it as a real possibility. What a colossal disappointment that would be; thus, to date, a colossal disappointment.
Deleted member 747903
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Are these predictions based on something? Nobody really knows for sure how these games are going to shake out. Let's just support the team as best we can and hope they turn it around.
Could you have predicted Minnesota destroying Michigan? If you did then kudos to you. If you didn't predict that then your predictions here are no more than just guesses rooted in emotion
Illini_1979
- Oregon
So glad we found him the BEST chiropractor on YouTube!
Seriously, though, I wish AH all the best and look forward to him helping the team when he returns.
Just brainstorming...(and that can prove disastrous for most of us)....but what I see is a reluctance to address weaknesses and sit players who are not producing. At this point, only Ayo is to be counted upon and all other positions are pretty much a wash from a production standpoint. I would start either Hawk or Grand at the 4 and let the battle and learn from day 1. Same with Kofi and Giorgi at the 5 with equal minutes until Kofi learns to catch, pass, and keep the ball above his shoulders. Trent gets the start at PG with Curbelo earning his minutes. Ayo gets backed up by Miller while Miller tries to clone Ayo's game. That leaves Damonte at the 3, where Grandison can spell him while BVV can get some minutes at the 4. This team needs interior defense and Hawk and Grandison can provide both inside and outside game on both ends....but not from the bench. I like what I have seen from the team performance when both are in the game....but as stated, they can't learn and gain chemistry from the bench.
I liked Grandison starting from the get go and have seen nothing to discourage that. Hawkins has been a pleasant surprise and could provide so much more if his reins were loosened. Both are the types that we shake our heads about when they career in their first year in SFC for other teams....but sit on the Illini bench. Believe me, I am as opposed as anyone human to giving frosh anything that is not earned, but these two kids have both earned the right to a 25 minutes opportunity as part of the teams "dependables".
Just my rant and it likely won't happen...so we can celebrate limping in to a soon to be hard earned 6th place finish in the B1G and the ensuing near double digit NCAA seed....if the bubble does not pop! I sure hope it doesn't but our Illini are not trending in a good direction with 3 B1G losses...a big rock to be under at this point in the schedule.
I liked Grandison starting from the get go and have seen nothing to discourage that. Hawkins has been a pleasant surprise and could provide so much more if his reins were loosened. Both are the types that we shake our heads about when they career in their first year in SFC for other teams....but sit on the Illini bench. Believe me, I am as opposed as anyone human to giving frosh anything that is not earned, but these two kids have both earned the right to a 25 minutes opportunity as part of the teams "dependables".
Just my rant and it likely won't happen...so we can celebrate limping in to a soon to be hard earned 6th place finish in the B1G and the ensuing near double digit NCAA seed....if the bubble does not pop! I sure hope it doesn't but our Illini are not trending in a good direction with 3 B1G losses...a big rock to be under at this point in the schedule.
A lot of people in here are making me laugh. Yes, we have been disappointing so far. But there is still time to turn it around and win a big ten championship or get a top 4 finish and be in a good position going into the tourney. All about peaking in March. It’s not a matter of talent on this team, it’s a matter of putting effort together for 40 minutes. Let’s hope it starts tonight, and we still are very much in reach of all of our goals. Let’s go get our season back on track.
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Can't buy the Kofi criticism. Are there things that he could do better? Absolutely. However, he is AVERAGING a double double for the season, 17.1 and 10.1 (so far). We haven't had a player do that for an entire season in nearly 50 years (Weatherspoon). He leads the country in the number of double doubles. He has nearly as many blocked shots as the rest of our team combined. When have we ever had a better big man? Deon - not even close on rebounds. Myers Leonard -13.6 pts. and 8.2 rebs. in his best year, again not close to Kofi's numbers. Maybe Dave Downey, but his numbers weren't better than Kofi's until he was an upper classman. Nick Weatherspoon had better numbers but he wasn't really a big. I doubt that most of us will see a better Illinois big in our lifetimes.
I keep thinking back to what Underwood said after the Northwestern game. And that was at halftime, he didn't really have to say much because the players were already so pissed at theirselves for the way they performed(or better yet, didn't perform) in the first half of that game.
Well, they must not have been to pissed because Maryland happened. Then Ohio St. happened. This team still thinks they can just show up, roll the ball out and they'll get the win. And unfortunately, the last 2 games has shown us, against the better teams in the league that's not going to happen.
Well, they must not have been to pissed because Maryland happened. Then Ohio St. happened. This team still thinks they can just show up, roll the ball out and they'll get the win. And unfortunately, the last 2 games has shown us, against the better teams in the league that's not going to happen.
the national
- the Front Range
I heard today that several former players said these losses are on the players, not the staff. I didn’t hear who said that in the report I read but maybe theirs something going on behind the scenes that is getting “worked out”. It’s likely we’ll never know exactly what’s happening. Tonight will be a good show if they are turning the corner. His needs to be a big win.
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
For anyone who might be in denial about the impact of our recent home losses to Maryland and OSU on our B1G title hopes, here's today's Barttorvik Title Odds chart (https://barttorvik.com/concast.php):
As of this moment, we are nearly completely out of the runnings. A few big wins against teams currently above us in the table could shift things, but we have a huge hill to climb. Not ideal for a team that was once considered a favorite to win the B1G title this year.
As of this moment, we are nearly completely out of the runnings. A few big wins against teams currently above us in the table could shift things, but we have a huge hill to climb. Not ideal for a team that was once considered a favorite to win the B1G title this year.
A win against Iowa probably completely changes this
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JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
Nope. This is what the chart looks like when you lock in a win over Iowa:
Again, people are generally underestimating how deep of a hole we've dug for ourselves already.
Still completely in our hands though since we beat the only team above us that we've played.
Not really sure what value that has but I did like the over the top grimness of the accompanying text.
We aren’t even halfway through the B1G season in a weird pandemic protocol year. We have games against the teams ahead of us. Michigan has played one decent team away from home and got smoked. Does anyone actually think Purdue has a better shot at the title than we do?
Yes those losses did serious damage to our title hopes but that’s not some numbers game it’s because we aren’t the team we’d hoped we’d be at this stage of the season. The Illini still control their own destiny.
We aren’t even halfway through the B1G season in a weird pandemic protocol year. We have games against the teams ahead of us. Michigan has played one decent team away from home and got smoked. Does anyone actually think Purdue has a better shot at the title than we do?
Yes those losses did serious damage to our title hopes but that’s not some numbers game it’s because we aren’t the team we’d hoped we’d be at this stage of the season. The Illini still control their own destiny.
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
Let's say we win every single game we're favored in for the rest of the season (even if it's just slightly better than a coin flip). That means we don't drop any of the following:
Iowa, @IU, Wisc, NU, @Minn, Neb, @Neb, @MSU
That would put us at 14-3.
We would still need to win 2/3 of the following to feel even reasonably good about our chances to win the B1G title:
@Mich, @Wisc, @OSU
In other words, if you're still expecting us to win the B1G title, you aren't just saying we're going to get hot and win a bunch of games from here on out. You're saying we're going to win all of our remaining games, or dropping one at max. That seems a little unrealistic to me, both because of the strength of the conference this year and our own lack of consistency thus far. Our best shot of staying in contention for the title is to hope that the teams ahead of us also pick up some unexpected losses. Since we need a little bit of help in that way, I don't think you can say this is "still completely in our hands."
Iowa, @IU, Wisc, NU, @Minn, Neb, @Neb, @MSU
That would put us at 14-3.
We would still need to win 2/3 of the following to feel even reasonably good about our chances to win the B1G title:
@Mich, @Wisc, @OSU
In other words, if you're still expecting us to win the B1G title, you aren't just saying we're going to get hot and win a bunch of games from here on out. You're saying we're going to win all of our remaining games, or dropping one at max. That seems a little unrealistic to me, both because of the strength of the conference this year and our own lack of consistency thus far. Our best shot of staying in contention for the title is to hope that the teams ahead of us also pick up some unexpected losses. Since we need a little bit of help in that way, I don't think you can say this is "still completely in our hands."
For the most part, we haven't played the teams above us yet and they haven't played each other either. I think every team is going to have at least four losses and I do think we are capable of winning every game. Obviously we have a very small margin for error, but we're not out of the running.
Purdue has the same conference record as us, hasn't dropped a single home game, has already played Iowa, and has beaten Ohio State twice. They've played mostly on the road, so 6 of their remaining games are at home, and their away games left include Nebraska and Maryland (who despite beating us, is not a good team and is 2-6 in conference). They 100% have a better chance at winning the conference than us, as it stands now.
Edit: not that I think they will. I think it'd take everything going right got either team for this to be even a realistic possibility.
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Not that it means a bunch in isolation, but 4 teams ranked ahead of us lost in the last two days.
My personal favorite was Creighton choking away a home game to a previously 7-6 Providence squad. The Bluejays interior defense is trash.
My personal favorite was Creighton choking away a home game to a previously 7-6 Providence squad. The Bluejays interior defense is trash.
Deleted member 747903
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I can totally see Purdue finishing in the top 4. Their freshmen are some DUDES.
Ivey is going to be a future first team all B10 player and Gillis reminds a me of Kipper Nichols but better.
They're a good team. Are they more talented than the Illini? I don’t think so. But they're doing more with the talent they have than the Illini are, and if you think they haven't been more successful in their Big 10 campaign than us, you're missing what they've been doing. They're 4-0 since they lost to us, and in that same span we're 2-2. I want us to win the regular season conference title as much as the next guy, but looking at the standings and remaining schedules I think we're more likely to finish 6th than 1st (I still think we likely end up somewhere in the 3 or 4 range).
A lot of people like to point out how tough the Big 10 is to excuse those losses at home to Maryland and OSU, but that's exactly why you can't give those games up. We will lose more games, this conference is a gauntlet. We ended up 13-7 last year and there's not a game we lost that made me say "we really should be winning that game." This year we already have 3 (yes I'm counting Rutgers, they've already lost 3 games at the RAC this year and are 1-5 since beating us).
If this team gets it together we can win the Big 10 tournament and do great things in March. I just think the regular season Big 10 title is a bit of a pipe dream at the moment.
And that was good for just one game back from a share of the title.
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