Illini Basketball 2021-2022

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#52      
FWIW, Torvik now has us with a >50% chance of at least a share of the B1G title, with a 1 in 3 chance of a solo title.

Sorry to not have my usual B1G tourney seeding odds charts to share this season. There are so many good sites and systems out there now (KenPom, Bart Torvik, NET, etc.) that I've decided to focus on creating a similar predictive ranking system for women's college volleyball, where RPI is still heavily used and it will (I hope) have some more added value.
This is actually pretty wild just 4 games into a 20 game slate
 
#53      
My favorite Shaq video is a Rennie Clemons highlight video where he goes right at him for a layup (although not a dunk as told in the tales of yore.) Clemons had a big hand in Shaq fouling out, and the Illini hung triple digit scoring on LSU. One of my favorite games, 12/22/90.
 
#54      
For those that have better memories than I do:

What did Shaquille O'Neal do in his 2 years at LSU that Kofi cannot do? Not saying that Kofi is an all-time NBA guy, but at this point in their college careers, was there a huge difference? Further hammering home how much the NBA game has changed.
Didn't Shaq break a backboard? Kofi hasn't done that yet. Apparently some things are made better these days!
 
#57      
Shaq had 3 years but his soph year was slighty better. I love Kofi but Shaq was even more explosive and skilled. Shaq was a better passer and also averaged 5 blocks per game. As crazy as Kofis efficieny numbers are Shaq averaged more points on a slightly higher percentage.

Still put Kofi back 20 years and he is a top 3 pick easily and probably a focal point of an NBA franchise.
Certainly better than Eddy Curry
 
#61      
Since Coach BU took Kofi out of the game against Maryland with 2 fouls and 10 minutes to go in the first half, I have been looking at analytics and opinions on this strategy. Most coaches take a similar approach on this, making it a normal move in CBB. But, is it the right move? Is the end of the game more important than the earlier part of the game? In removing the player (Kofi), it ensures that what the coach wishes to avoid, the player not playing his regular minutes, is a certainty. Kofi averages 29.6 minutes and 1.9 fouls per game, which comes out to a bit more than one foul per 15 minutes played. There were 30 minutes left in the game, so he would have picked up, on average, 2 more fouls the rest of the game even if he had played the entire 30 minutes left (although he normally averages only 3/4 of the game minutes - he had one additional foul in the second half, ending with 3.) My question: in these days where analytics are being used much more in the NBA and MLB, will they also start to be used in CBB, making coaches less likely to sit a player in the same situation? Or, is it so ingrained in coaching that it will remain? This is just an observation on CBB in general, and I do NOT mean it as a criticism of Coach Underwood - I'm all in on the BU train.
 
#62      
I can see a clear analytics case to the contrary, but for me, the end of the game is far more important than anything else, especially when you have a twelve point lead to squander over the next ten minutes.

Now, I might think differently if we are getting blown out. It would be all hands on deck at that point. But that was never a risk here.
 
#64      

CoalCity

St Paul, MN
Since Coach BU took Kofi out of the game against Maryland with 2 fouls and 10 minutes to go in the first half, I have been looking at analytics and opinions on this strategy. Most coaches take a similar approach on this, making it a normal move in CBB. But, is it the right move? Is the end of the game more important than the earlier part of the game? In removing the player (Kofi), it ensures that what the coach wishes to avoid, the player not playing his regular minutes, is a certainty. Kofi averages 29.6 minutes and 1.9 fouls per game, which comes out to a bit more than one foul per 15 minutes played. There were 30 minutes left in the game, so he would have picked up, on average, 2 more fouls the rest of the game even if he had played the entire 30 minutes left (although he normally averages only 3/4 of the game minutes - he had one additional foul in the second half, ending with 3.) My question: in these days where analytics are being used much more in the NBA and MLB, will they also start to be used in CBB, making coaches less likely to sit a player in the same situation? Or, is it so ingrained in coaching that it will remain? This is just an observation on CBB in general, and I do NOT mean it as a criticism of Coach Underwood - I'm all in on the BU train.
Analytics are all well and good but when you see the fouls that DJ Christensen hung on Kofi it made sense to get him out of there so he could play freely in the second half. They were extremely ticky tack and it made sense not to give DJ the opportunity to call another touch foul. The guy is absolutely horrible.

Analytics are a fine tool to use but the eye test and past experiences should never be ignored.

You built up a big lead with Kofi not playing great, chances are pretty good that he would do what he did in the second half...come out and dominate.
 
#65      
This is probably more than a little off topic, but just how does analytics account for a real bad ref? Does it just assume that sometimes that ref is for us and sometimes against us, or can the algorithm get any more detailed than that?
 
#66      

blackdog

Champaign
Analytics are all well and good but when you see the fouls that DJ Christensen hung on Kofi it made sense to get him out of there so he could play freely in the second half. They were extremely ticky tack and it made sense not to give DJ the opportunity to call another touch foul. The guy is absolutely horrible.

Analytics are a fine tool to use but the eye test and past experiences should never be ignored.

You built up a big lead with Kofi not playing great, chances are pretty good that he would do what he did in the second half...come out and dominate.

BU even said after the game that he would normally play Kofi with 2 but decided to take him out based on how the game was being called and how Maryland was playing. He often plays Trent and Damonte with 2 so he obviously has no problem doing it with players he trusts in the right situation.
 
#67      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
Analytics are all well and good but when you see the fouls that DJ Christensen hung on Kofi it made sense to get him out of there so he could play freely in the second half. They were extremely ticky tack and it made sense not to give DJ the opportunity to call another touch foul. The guy is absolutely horrible.

Analytics are a fine tool to use but the eye test and past experiences should never be ignored.

You built up a big lead with Kofi not playing great, chances are pretty good that he would do what he did in the second half...come out and dominate.
FACT..................
 
#68      
Illinois is ranked #24 in CBS sports top 25 and 1....we should be in the Monday polls also.
 
#70      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
BU even said after the game that he would normally play Kofi with 2 but decided to take him out based on how the game was being called and how Maryland was playing. He often plays Trent and Damonte with 2 so he obviously has no problem doing it with players he trusts in the right situation.

Historically Underwood has been more reluctant than the average DI head coach to play guys with two fouls in the first half. This season is actually the most he's ever done it (in terms of % of available minutes guys are left in). I wonder if that's just a symptom of a shorter rotation (especially with all the guys missing time early this year), or maybe more trust in the vets like Trent and Damonte... we'll see how it shifts as the season continues.
 
#71      
Since Coach BU took Kofi out of the game against Maryland with 2 fouls and 10 minutes to go in the first half, I have been looking at analytics and opinions on this strategy. Most coaches take a similar approach on this, making it a normal move in CBB. But, is it the right move? Is the end of the game more important than the earlier part of the game? In removing the player (Kofi), it ensures that what the coach wishes to avoid, the player not playing his regular minutes, is a certainty. Kofi averages 29.6 minutes and 1.9 fouls per game, which comes out to a bit more than one foul per 15 minutes played. There were 30 minutes left in the game, so he would have picked up, on average, 2 more fouls the rest of the game even if he had played the entire 30 minutes left (although he normally averages only 3/4 of the game minutes - he had one additional foul in the second half, ending with 3.) My question: in these days where analytics are being used much more in the NBA and MLB, will they also start to be used in CBB, making coaches less likely to sit a player in the same situation? Or, is it so ingrained in coaching that it will remain? This is just an observation on CBB in general, and I do NOT mean it as a criticism of Coach Underwood - I'm all in on the BU train.
Interestingly enough, playing with fouls was revisited in the most recent hoopvision newsletter. He also links to his previous writing on the topic and some pomeroy data.

For those who aren’t familiar with hoopvision, Jordan Sperber was a video guy for New Mexico State and has a YouTube channel, also called hoopvision, where he mostly merges Xs and Os with analytics. Some of the best basketball junkie stuff out there. 100% recommend a subscribe if you’re a basketball nerd like me.
 
#72      
Wasn’t sure where to put this, but I started looking at the various locations we could wind up at for the NCAA Tournament. We’d need an elite seed to get some of these true home court advantage spots, but man would I love to see a sea of orange follow our boys! These are some that would be particularly good for our following:

FIRST/SECOND ROUND OPTIONS
• Indianapolis, IN (3/17 and 3/19) - Will be tough to snag this from Purdue, but here’s to hoping!
• Milwaukee, WI (3/18 and 3/20) - If we can get up to that 2/3 seed line, I think we have a great shot at getting placed here!

SWEET SIXTEEN/ELITE EIGHT OPTIONS
• Chicago, IL (3/25 and 3/27) - This is obviously the gold standard, but we’d have to get a damn great seed. I fear that if we were, say, a 3 seed, the Committee wouldn’t be eager to punish a 1 seed team by throwing them into the United Center vs. Illinois. How pissed would we all be if 1-seed Illinois played 3-seed Texas in San Antonio? Lol.
 
#73      
FWIW, Torvik now has us with a >50% chance of at least a share of the B1G title, with a 1 in 3 chance of a solo title.

Sorry to not have my usual B1G tourney seeding odds charts to share this season. There are so many good sites and systems out there now (KenPom, Bart Torvik, NET, etc.) that I've decided to focus on creating a similar predictive ranking system for women's college volleyball, where RPI is still heavily used and it will (I hope) have some more added value.
Torvik also has us as the best team since 11/30/2021 -> T-Rank
 
#74      
Wasn’t sure where to put this, but I started looking at the various locations we could wind up at for the NCAA Tournament. We’d need an elite seed to get some of these true home court advantage spots, but man would I love to see a sea of orange follow our boys! These are some that would be particularly good for our following:

FIRST/SECOND ROUND OPTIONS
• Indianapolis, IN (3/17 and 3/19) - Will be tough to snag this from Purdue, but here’s to hoping!
• Milwaukee, WI (3/18 and 3/20) - If we can get up to that 2/3 seed line, I think we have a great shot at getting placed here!

SWEET SIXTEEN/ELITE EIGHT OPTIONS
• Chicago, IL (3/25 and 3/27) - This is obviously the gold standard, but we’d have to get a damn great seed. I fear that if we were, say, a 3 seed, the Committee wouldn’t be eager to punish a 1 seed team by throwing them into the United Center vs. Illinois. How pissed would we all be if 1-seed Illinois played 3-seed Texas in San Antonio? Lol.
Purdue has a talented team and could make a huge run. That being said they have 2 conference losses and a real tough conference road schedule ahead. Play at Illinois and Indiana next week alone. Let the dust settle as a long road ahead...
 
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#75      
Purdue has a talented team and could make a huge run. That being said they have 2 conference losses and a real tough conference road schedule ahead. Play at Illinois and Indiana next week alone. Let the dust settle as a long road ahead...
Exactly. The winner of this conference will get the advantages in the NCAA tournament. On another note, I have watched Purdue play several times this season and I'm not very impressed so far for what everyone thought they should be.
 
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