Bracketology

[Piotyr]

Let's take a deep dive into the current state of the bracket, top; to bottom. In order to not make this one huge post, I'll do it in pieces.

Let's start with the bottom quarter of the bracket, the one-bid leagues with auto bids (seeded 16 to 12-ish, typically).

There are 32 total conference auto bids. Of those, 12 conferences have teams that are in the at-large discussion (and would thus be seeded higher than auto-bid only leagues in general): Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, Big East, Pac-12, ACC, WCC, MWC, OVC, American, Missouri Valley, and Atlantic 10. Other conferences do have a team that is on the edge of discussion, like North Texas or South Dakota State, but due to a combination of "they would only get at-large consideration if they won their league, thus creating a paradox" and "the committee is not picky enough to slide those teams in the midst of other bubble teams", they'll just end up with 12 seeds and the committee will typically call it fair.

Those 20 conferences (* means bid is won and done, seed in parentheses):
1 - America East - (1)Vermont*
2 - ASUN - (1)Jacksonville State*
3 - Big Sky - (1)Montana St/(2)Northern CO
4 - Big South - (1)Longwood*
5 - Big West - (1)Long Beach St/(2)Cal St Fullerton
6 - CAA - (5)Delaware*
7 - CUSA - (3)UAB/(5)La Tech
8 - Horizon - (4)Wright State*
9 - Ivy - (1)Princeton/(2)Yale
10 - MAAC - (2)St. Peter's/(4)Monmouth
11 - MAC - (2)Ken State/(4)Akron
12 - MEAC - (1)Norfolk State*
13 - NEC - (1)Bryant*
14 - Patriot - (1) Colgate*
15 - Southern - (1)Chattanooga*
16 - Southland - (3)SE Louisiana/(4)TAMU CC
17 - SWAC - (1)Alcorn St/(2)TX Southern
18 - Summit - (1)South Dakota St*
19 - Sun Belt - (3)Georgia St*
20 - WAC - (1) New Mexico St/(6)Abilene Christian

One thing the committee tends to do at the low end is reward conference champs who won their conference tournament by keeping them out of the play-in games (if it's close). It's not a hard and fast rule, but several times a team considered worse by metrics is kept out of the play in game in favor of an upset winner in another conference tournament (if it's close, again, the CUSA champ is just better than the SWAC champ, even if Alcorn wins it). Based on an average of quality (TRank) vs results (WAb), and factoring in conference champ upset winners of comparable quality, this is what to expect from the bottom of the bracket:

Play in games:
- Southland winner (they bad) v Wright State(Horizon)
- SWAC winner vs upset MAAC winner

Other seeds:
- 16 seeds: Big Sky winner, Big West winner
- 15 seeds: Bryant(NEC), Norfolk St(MEAC), Colgate(Patriot), Delaware(CAA)
- 14 seeds: Jacksonville State(ASUN), Ivy winner, Georgia State(Sun Belt), Longwood(Big South)
- 13 seeds: MAC champ, WAC champ, CUSA champ, Chattanooga(Southern)
- 12 seeds: Vermont(AE), South Dakota State(Summit)

 

[aaeismacgychel]

Enjoy your breakdowns - just confused on why Tennessee would be more likely to want to go to Milwaukee instead of Pittsburgh or Greenville. And for Arkansas, they look much closer to Fort Worth. I can't imagine Arkansas or Tennessee sending many fans to Milwaukee. But I also am not sure of all the seeding rules for where teams can go.

If you had to guess, where do you think Illinois will be sent? thanks again for the breakdowns. Can't wait for 5 tomorrow

Thanks, appreciate it. How I would see it is that they would actually not send Tennessee to Milwaukee, but instead to Indy along with Kentucky. Purdue would then be moved to Milwaukee with Wisconsin. As for Arkansas, their only options at this point are the Northeast or Midwest for seeding. Both Baylor and Kansas have locked up the Fort Worth Spots. For now we'll say they're a 1 and a 2 seed. That would mean that the Fort Worth pod has the 1/16 and the 2/15 games, which to close out that side of the pod would also require the 8/9 and 7/10 games. As you can see, that makes sending a 4/5 seed to Fort Worth impossible. Similarly, so long as UCLA loses tonight to Arizona, it's safe to say they will be a 4 out west, as St. Mary's is a clear 5 out west and USC must be thrown out as the 5 there because UCLA cannot be matched with USC in a possible Round of 32 game, UCLA and St. Mary's locks up out West.

So really, after placing all the other top seeds, all that's left for the 4/5 seed teams like us, Arkansas, Houston, LSU, USC, or Iowa is either out in the Northeast where 4/5s Providence and UConn have already been placed (Since Providence and UConn similarly can't be in the same pod like UCLA/USC due to being in the same conference at least 2 of the remaining 4/5 seeds not names Providence or UConn are required to go to Buffalo/Pittsburgh). That means that the final 4/5 seed pair can be in either Wisconsin/Indy or Buffalo/Pittsburgh. Putting Tennessee in Indy would mean the final 4/5 seed pair is in Buffalo/Pittsburgh. Putting Tennessee in Pittsburgh would mean the final 4/5 seed pair is in Indy/Milwaukee.

So long and the short of it, it all depends on whether the committee wants to do
Option A: Put Tennessee in Indy, move Purdue to Milwaukee, and then have 6 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Buffalo/Pittsburgh or
Option B: Put Tennessee in Pittsburgh, have 4 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Buffalo/Pittsburgh, and have 2 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Indy/Milwaukee.

While I think Option A is fairest to Tennessee meaning we are for sure going to Pittsburgh or Buffalo, there is definite incentive to open a 4/5 pairing in the Midwest and so I could see the committee choosing Option B, and then we'd be competing with Arkansas and possibly Houston or Iowa for that 4 seed in Indy/Milwaukee with the others being sent to Buffalo/Pittsburgh.

Best odds right now are Illinois in Pittsburgh or Buffalo but there is a chance at Milwaukee or Indy if the committee is super nice to us.

 

[fuggles]

I think over Rutgers is a quality win you omitted being and also if they win out in Indy but like I said I hope they lose. I hate Iowa but they are the hottest team in the B10 like it or not.

You mean the tournament. I was talking the regular season.

 

[HailtotheChief]

You mean the tournament. I was talking the regular season.

Clearly these tournament games certainly matter. Indiana was out but are now in. Texas AM may be too. If Iowa only loses 2 games in ,6 weeks in B10 play and beats Rutgers, and then in Indy Indiana and Purdue when how come they couldn't jump some teams. Especially if the others like Providence are losing? I hate Iowa but they are rolling. I hope they lose tomorrow I'm not a fan. If Iowa is a 5 seed or a 4. I will have them winning a few games in my pool even though I despise them in

 

[Piotyr]

At this point I don't think the B1G championship tomorrow has any meaning (Purdue and Iowa are clearly both in the bracket, I don't think the two teams are close enough to warrant a swap based on who wins the game tomorrow, so the committee will have the bracket set before that game even starts).

 

[fuggles]

Clearly these tournament games certainly matter. Indiana was out but are now in. Texas AM may be too. If Iowa only loses 2 games in ,6 weeks in B10 play and beats Rutgers, and then in Indy Indiana and Purdue when how come they couldn't jump some teams. Especially if the others like Providence are losing? I hate Iowa but they are rolling. I hope they lose tomorrow I'm not a fan. If Iowa is a 5 seed or a 4. I will have them winning a few games in my pool even though I despise them in

Ok. So you think they have 2 quality wins since Feb 1. Not impressive. Which is what my post was countering to you thinking they are so hot.

 

[HailtotheChief]

Ok. So you think they have 2 quality wins since Feb 1. Not impressive. Which is what my post was countering to you thinking they are so hot.

Well I am m trying to be objective. I get their schedule wasn't loaded but it is the B10. If the Illini had won 11 of 13 and 7 of the wins not in CU I think we would say our team was hot. Especially if they won the tourney. I am thankful we squeezed by last Sunday after driving over. I felt very fortunate the Illini won. I hope the boilers win tomorrow and I think Illini will stay a 4 seed above Iowa but would not be shocked if both are 4s if Iowa beats Purdue and wins 12 of it's last 14.

 

[Bleedorangeandblue44]

Thanks, appreciate it. How I would see it is that they would actually not send Tennessee to Milwaukee, but instead to Indy along with Kentucky. Purdue would then be moved to Milwaukee with Wisconsin. As for Arkansas, their only options at this point are the Northeast or Midwest for seeding. Both Baylor and Kansas have locked up the Fort Worth Spots. For now we'll say they're a 1 and a 2 seed. That would mean that the Fort Worth pod has the 1/16 and the 2/15 games, which to close out that side of the pod would also require the 8/9 and 7/10 games. As you can see, that makes sending a 4/5 seed to Fort Worth impossible. Similarly, so long as UCLA loses tonight to Arizona, it's safe to say they will be a 4 out west, as St. Mary's is a clear 5 out west and USC must be thrown out as the 5 there because UCLA cannot be matched with USC in a possible Round of 32 game, UCLA and St. Mary's locks up out West.

So really, after placing all the other top seeds, all that's left for the 4/5 seed teams like us, Arkansas, Houston, LSU, USC, or Iowa is either out in the Northeast where 4/5s Providence and UConn have already been placed (Since Providence and UConn similarly can't be in the same pod like UCLA/USC due to being in the same conference at least 2 of the remaining 4/5 seeds not names Providence or UConn are required to go to Buffalo/Pittsburgh). That means that the final 4/5 seed pair can be in either Wisconsin/Indy or Buffalo/Pittsburgh. Putting Tennessee in Indy would mean the final 4/5 seed pair is in Buffalo/Pittsburgh. Putting Tennessee in Pittsburgh would mean the final 4/5 seed pair is in Indy/Milwaukee.

So long and the short of it, it all depends on whether the committee wants to do
Option A: Put Tennessee in Indy, move Purdue to Milwaukee, and then have 6 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Buffalo/Pittsburgh or
Option B: Put Tennessee in Pittsburgh, have 4 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Buffalo/Pittsburgh, and have 2 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Indy/Milwaukee.

While I think Option A is fairest to Tennessee meaning we are for sure going to Pittsburgh or Buffalo, there is definite incentive to open a 4/5 pairing in the Midwest and so I could see the committee choosing Option B, and then we'd be competing with Arkansas and possibly Houston or Iowa for that 4 seed in Indy/Milwaukee with the others being sent to Buffalo/Pittsburgh.

Best odds right now are Illinois in Pittsburgh or Buffalo but there is a chance at Milwaukee or Indy if the committee is super nice to us.

Thanks - this is a very helpful explanation.

 

[Navy_illini]

Well I am m trying to be objective. I get their schedule wasn't loaded but it is the B10. If the Illini had won 11 of 13 and 7 of the wins not in CU I think we would say our team was hot. Especially if they won the tourney. I am thankful we squeezed by last Sunday after driving over. I felt very fortunate the Illini won. I hope the boilers win tomorrow and I think Illini will stay a 4 seed above Iowa but would not be shocked if both are 4s if Iowa beats Purdue and wins 12 of it's last 14.

Game tomorrow does not affect seeding. Iowa is good and will most likely be a 5. Every regular season game counts and can’t disregard what happened in December and January

Kofi being out along with our injuries improves our resume.

 

[727ill]

Watching the Mountain West Championship game.
Honestly both teams look like they be just fine in the big 10.

Shows how far that conference has come.

 

[fuggles]

Well I am m trying to be objective. I get their schedule wasn't loaded but it is the B10. If the Illini had won 11 of 13 and 7 of the wins not in CU I think we would say our team was hot. Especially if they won the tourney. I am thankful we squeezed by last Sunday after driving over. I felt very fortunate the Illini won. I hope the boilers win tomorrow and I think Illini will stay a 4 seed above Iowa but would not be shocked if both are 4s if Iowa beats Purdue and wins 12 of it's last 14.

ok. For me hot is reserved for quality wins. Beating up on bad and mediocre teams is a scheduling glitch. They were beating teams they were supposed to beat. Except they lost to Michigan which isn't a good team. For the record I think Iowa is a good team. Just not top tier B1G. And obviously I have not been impressed with their run of wins against the bottom of the B1G. Weird scheduling.

 

[Govoner Vaugn Fan]

The way the brackets are shaping up, I can't see the Illini losing more than one game, if any, the rest of the season.

 

[Govoner Vaugn Fan]

The way the brackets are shaping up, I can't see the Illini losing more than one game, if any, the rest of the season.

 

[Illini in Italy]

The way the brackets are shaping up, I can't see the Illini losing more than one game, if any, the rest of the season.

 

[Piotyr]

Now that the Kentucky-Tennessee game is over, let's look at the top of the bracket (top 4 seeds):

Like I did before, here are the top 20 by average rating between efficiency (TRank) and results (WAB):

1. Kansas
2. Gonzaga
3. Baylor
4. Kentucky
5. Arizona
6. Auburn
7. Houston
8. Texas Tech
9. Duke
10. Villanova
11. Purdue
12. Tennessee
13. UCLA
14. Illinois
15. Iowa
16. St. Mary's
17. Arkansas
18. Wisconsin
19. Texas
20. Connecticut

Considerations:
- Gonzaga is still far and away the most quality team in the field by efficiency, which should be enough to offset any result inefficiencies and put them at the top of the bracket.
- Kentucky's loss puts them at a 2 seed, and Arizona is definitely a 1 seed, either the #2 overall or #3 overall if Kansas wins.
- Baylor is the fourth 1 seed, since Kentucky and Auburn both lost already and nobody else is close enough (not even Texas Tech).
- Houston still doesn't have any great wins, and won't get one tomorrow either. I don't think they're a top 4 seed, but probably a high quality 5 seed.
- Wisconsin's profile actually took a decent hit in the last week, what with losing at home to Nebraska and then immediately to Michigan State, with Johnny Davis not 100% healthy. I see them perhaps even behind both Illinois and Iowa now, as the average suggests.
- Like I said, I don't think the games tomorrow will really affect the bracket, so Iowa is where it is now, which is still pretty good for Iowa.

So, my bracket prediction after those considerations:

1 seeds: Gonzaga*, Kansas*, Arizona*, Baylor
2 seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke*, Villanova*
3 seeds: Purdue*, Texas Tech, Tennessee, UCLA
4 seeds: Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, Wisconsin

Based on this, here's how I think the regions/pods will shake out:
West Region (San Francisco, CA) 1. Gonzaga v 16. Southland/Wright St - Portland, OR
Midwest Region (Chicago, IL) 1. Kansas v 16. Big Sky - Fort Worth, TX
South Region (San Antonio, TX) 1. Arizona v 16. SWAC/MAAC - San Diego, CA
East Region (Philadelphia, PA) 1. Baylor v 16. Big West - Fort Worth, TX
East 2. Kentucky v 15. Bryant - Indianapolis, IN
South 2. Auburn v 15. Delaware - Greenville, SC
Midwest 2. Duke v 15. Norfolk State - Greenville, SC
West 2. Villanova v 15. Colgate - Pittsburgh, PA
West 3. Texas Tech v 14. Jacksonville State - San Diego, CA (avoid KS/Baylor brackets)
Midwest 3. Tennessee v 14. Ivy - Pittsburgh, PA (avoid Auburn and Kentucky brackets)
South 3. Purdue v 14. Georgia State - Indianapolis, IN (Purdue gets location priority over Tennessee due to being higher on seed list)
East 3. UCLA v 14. Longwood - Portland, OR
East 4. Illinois v 13. MAC - Milwaukee, WI
Midwest 4. Iowa v 13. CUSA - Milwaukee, WI
South 4. Arkansas v 13. Chattanooga - Buffalo, NY
West 4. Wisconsin v 13. WAC - Buffalo, NY

Granted, if the committee puts Illinois behind Iowa and Wisconsin, they probably go to Buffalo. Regions could be interchangeable, and the committee could mix and match the B1G teams between regions to balance them, but theoretically the East region will have the weakest 1 seed, so it will have the strongest 4 seed.

 

[fuggles]

Thanks, appreciate it. How I would see it is that they would actually not send Tennessee to Milwaukee, but instead to Indy along with Kentucky. Purdue would then be moved to Milwaukee with Wisconsin. As for Arkansas, their only options at this point are the Northeast or Midwest for seeding. Both Baylor and Kansas have locked up the Fort Worth Spots. For now we'll say they're a 1 and a 2 seed. That would mean that the Fort Worth pod has the 1/16 and the 2/15 games, which to close out that side of the pod would also require the 8/9 and 7/10 games. As you can see, that makes sending a 4/5 seed to Fort Worth impossible. Similarly, so long as UCLA loses tonight to Arizona, it's safe to say they will be a 4 out west, as St. Mary's is a clear 5 out west and USC must be thrown out as the 5 there because UCLA cannot be matched with USC in a possible Round of 32 game, UCLA and St. Mary's locks up out West.

So really, after placing all the other top seeds, all that's left for the 4/5 seed teams like us, Arkansas, Houston, LSU, USC, or Iowa is either out in the Northeast where 4/5s Providence and UConn have already been placed (Since Providence and UConn similarly can't be in the same pod like UCLA/USC due to being in the same conference at least 2 of the remaining 4/5 seeds not names Providence or UConn are required to go to Buffalo/Pittsburgh). That means that the final 4/5 seed pair can be in either Wisconsin/Indy or Buffalo/Pittsburgh. Putting Tennessee in Indy would mean the final 4/5 seed pair is in Buffalo/Pittsburgh. Putting Tennessee in Pittsburgh would mean the final 4/5 seed pair is in Indy/Milwaukee.

So long and the short of it, it all depends on whether the committee wants to do
Option A: Put Tennessee in Indy, move Purdue to Milwaukee, and then have 6 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Buffalo/Pittsburgh or
Option B: Put Tennessee in Pittsburgh, have 4 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Buffalo/Pittsburgh, and have 2 of the 8 4/5 seeds in Indy/Milwaukee.

While I think Option A is fairest to Tennessee meaning we are for sure going to Pittsburgh or Buffalo, there is definite incentive to open a 4/5 pairing in the Midwest and so I could see the committee choosing Option B, and then we'd be competing with Arkansas and possibly Houston or Iowa for that 4 seed in Indy/Milwaukee with the others being sent to Buffalo/Pittsburgh.

Best odds right now are Illinois in Pittsburgh or Buffalo but there is a chance at Milwaukee or Indy if the committee is super nice to us.

When we look back at where the 1,2,3,4 s are placed. The 1 and 2 seeds seem to get favored locations. But after that many 3 and 4 seeds have to travel far for their games. A lot will depend on how the S curve comes out. I don't think any 1 or 2 seeds want to be in Milwaukee. So that leaves WI open for 3 and 4 seeds. Which means we could easily be a 3 or 4 seed in Milwaukee. Even if Purdue gets one of the spots we could get the other.

 

[Piotyr]

Next up: 5-9 seeds. Teams safely in the field that would be expected to win their first round game, but not more.

Top 20 teams, based on average TRank and WAC, from the teams I didn't place in the 1-4 seeds:

1. Houston
2. St. Mary's
3. Texas
4. Connecticut
5. San Diego State
6. LSU
7. North Carolina
8 .Boise State
9. San Francisco
10. Colorado State
11. Providence
12. Michigan State
13. Murray State
14. Memphis
15. Alabama
16. TCU
17. Ohio State
18. Loyola Chicago
19. Davidson
20. SMU

I don't see any super outliers here, one of San Diego State/Boise State will win the MWC, both being 6 seeds seems fair. San Francisco may be a bit lower than a 7 seed, but not much. Trying to place teams in regions/pods with no conflicts and least travel possible, here's what we end up with:

West (Buffalo, NY) - 5. Houston v 12. Vermont
South 5 (Buffalo, NY) - Texas (can't be MW or S because Kansas/Baylor)
Midwest 5 (Milwaukee, WI) - St. Mary's (can't be West because Gonzaga) v 12. South Dakota St.
East 5 (Milwaukee, WI) - Connecticut
East 6 (Portland, OR) - San Diego State
Midwest 6 (Pittsburgh, PA) - Boise State
South 6 (Indianapolis, IN) - North Carolina (can't be MW because Duke)
West 6 (San Diego, CA) - LSU (can't be E/MW/S because Kentucky/Auburn/Tennessee)
West 7 (Pittsburgh, PA) - Murray State
South 7 (Greenville, SC) - Colorado State
Midwest 7 (Greenville, SC) - Providence
East 7 (Indianapolis, IN) - Michigan State
East (Philadelphia, PA) - 8. San Francisco v 9. Davidson
Midwest (Fort Worth, TX) - 8. Alabama v 9. SMU
South (Fort Worth, TX) - 8. Memphis v 9. Ohio State
West (Portland, OR) - 8. TCU (avoids KS/Baylor/Texas) v 9. Loyola IL

 

[Piotyr]

Finally, let's look at the last part of the bracket, the bubble. 12 bids total up for grabs, 4 10 seeds, 4 11 seeds, and 2 play in games for 12 seeds.

According to average TRANK/WAB, here are the bubble teams, ranked:

1. Indiana
2. Texas A&M
3. Michigan
4. Oklahoma
5. Virginia Tech
6. Wake Forest
7. USC
8. Iowa State
9. Notre Dame
10. Seton Hall
11. Miami FL
12. Creighton
13. North Texas
14. Wyoming
15. Dayton
16. Marquette
17. VCU
18. Florida
19. BYU
20. Xavier
21. Rutgers

Thoughts:
- There are effectively 12 spots available for these teams, so if we went by straight average quality/results, every team 13 and lower would be left out of the bracket.
- The past few years, the committee has taken a team from seemingly out of left field and put them in the bracket unexpectedly, usually a good regular season team from a smaller profile conference (like the A10 or CUSA)). North Texas. VCU, BYU or Wyoming could be that team this year.
- If the committee goes by anything objective, Rutgers is not close to being in the bracket. Their efficiency numbers are bad, and their results numbers are bad. Their non conference schedule was ranked 300 (second worst on this list to Wake Forest), and they went 6-4 against that schedule. If Rutgers makes the field, it's a precedent set that non-conference results do not matter. They have 4 very good wins (vs PU, vs IA, vs IL, @WI), and 5 very awful losses (v Lafayette, v UMass, @DePaul, v Maryland, @Minnesota)
- USC may be ranked, but their profile is sad.
- Creighton may have done just enough to squeak back into bid status even with a loss today.
- Miami's profile is also suspect. They beat Duke, yay.
- Marquette's profile has taken a dive in the last 3 weeks too.
- Oklahoma (and every Big 12 team) has amazing schedule numbers due to every team in the Big 12 being at least Rutgers good. I think their numbers here are a touch inflated, but I'm still inclined to put them in the field, if only in the play-in game.

If I got to choose, here is who would get the 12 bubble bids:
10 seeds: Indiana, Texas A&M, Michigan, Virginia Tech
11 seeds: USC, Iowa State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame
Play-ins: Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Miami, Creighton
First 4 out: Marquette, North Texas, Wyoming, Dayton
Next 4 out: Rutgers, VCU, Florida, Xavier

 

[fuggles]

Finally, let's look at the last part of the bracket, the bubble. 12 bids total up for grabs, 4 10 seeds, 4 11 seeds, and 2 play in games for 12 seeds.

According to average TRANK/WAB, here are the bubble teams, ranked:

Love the detailed analysis.

Historically the play in games that are not 16 seeds are 11 seeds.

 

[Piotyr]

Love the detailed analysis.

Historically the play in games that are not 16 seeds are 11 seeds.

The reason the play in games have been 11 seeds is that there have typically been 22 one-bid conferences, which covers all the way through the 12 seeds. This season there are a couple overachiever mid-majors (and some underperforming major conferences), such that the OVC, A-10, MVC and MWC champs are all at-large quality.

Put another way, the only way the play-ins are 11 seeds this year is if Murray State and Davidson are 12 seeds, and those would be some scary 12 seeds. (Or if Davidson loses the auto bid to Richmond).

 

[Ramrod2010]

If you believe Kenpom or the bracket matrix, it's going to be a bad year for the B10. Not a single team in the top 12 in Kenpom, and the best seed is a 3 for Purdue. Not a popular opinion, but my own sense is similar --conference is deep but no team consistent enough that I'd expect a FF. Hope I'm surprised.

Yeah, I'm not expecting a great tournament for the Big Ten. Like you, I hope I'm wrong...

 

[BfosterL]

Since February if they only lost 2 times one if which was on the road vs us and they then add wins in Indy over Indiana and Purdue I am looking at the past 6 weeks of very strong play. Hopefully they lose lol. I dont think it's that cut and dry but we shall see

True, but we beat them head to head twice and finished 1st in the Big Ten

 

[HailtotheChief]

True, but we beat them head to head twice and finished 1st in the Big Ten

I don't think they should pass us but maybe Providence

 

[LouHenson]

Now that the Kentucky-Tennessee game is over, let's look at the top of the bracket (top 4 seeds):

Like I did before, here are the top 20 by average rating between efficiency (TRank) and results (WAB):

1. Kansas
2. Gonzaga
3. Baylor
4. Kentucky
5. Arizona
6. Auburn
7. Houston
8. Texas Tech
9. Duke
10. Villanova
11. Purdue
12. Tennessee
13. UCLA
14. Illinois
15. Iowa
16. St. Mary's
17. Arkansas
18. Wisconsin
19. Texas
20. Connecticut

Considerations:
- Gonzaga is still far and away the most quality team in the field by efficiency, which should be enough to offset any result inefficiencies and put them at the top of the bracket.
- Kentucky's loss puts them at a 2 seed, and Arizona is definitely a 1 seed, either the #2 overall or #3 overall if Kansas wins.
- Baylor is the fourth 1 seed, since Kentucky and Auburn both lost already and nobody else is close enough (not even Texas Tech).
- Houston still doesn't have any great wins, and won't get one tomorrow either. I don't think they're a top 4 seed, but probably a high quality 5 seed.
- Wisconsin's profile actually took a decent hit in the last week, what with losing at home to Nebraska and then immediately to Michigan State, with Johnny Davis not 100% healthy. I see them perhaps even behind both Illinois and Iowa now, as the average suggests.
- Like I said, I don't think the games tomorrow will really affect the bracket, so Iowa is where it is now, which is still pretty good for Iowa.

So, my bracket prediction after those considerations:

1 seeds: Gonzaga*, Kansas*, Arizona*, Baylor
2 seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke*, Villanova*
3 seeds: Purdue*, Texas Tech, Tennessee, UCLA
4 seeds: Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, Wisconsin

Based on this, here's how I think the regions/pods will shake out:
West Region (San Francisco, CA) 1. Gonzaga v 16. Southland/Wright St - Portland, OR
Midwest Region (Chicago, IL) 1. Kansas v 16. Big Sky - Fort Worth, TX
South Region (San Antonio, TX) 1. Arizona v 16. SWAC/MAAC - San Diego, CA
East Region (Philadelphia, PA) 1. Baylor v 16. Big West - Fort Worth, TX
East 2. Kentucky v 15. Bryant - Indianapolis, IN
South 2. Auburn v 15. Delaware - Greenville, SC
Midwest 2. Duke v 15. Norfolk State - Greenville, SC
West 2. Villanova v 15. Colgate - Pittsburgh, PA
West 3. Texas Tech v 14. Jacksonville State - San Diego, CA (avoid KS/Baylor brackets)
Midwest 3. Tennessee v 14. Ivy - Pittsburgh, PA (avoid Auburn and Kentucky brackets)
South 3. Purdue v 14. Georgia State - Indianapolis, IN (Purdue gets location priority over Tennessee due to being higher on seed list)
East 3. UCLA v 14. Longwood - Portland, OR
East 4. Illinois v 13. MAC - Milwaukee, WI
Midwest 4. Iowa v 13. CUSA - Milwaukee, WI
South 4. Arkansas v 13. Chattanooga - Buffalo, NY
West 4. Wisconsin v 13. WAC - Buffalo, NY

Granted, if the committee puts Illinois behind Iowa and Wisconsin, they probably go to Buffalo. Regions could be interchangeable, and the committee could mix and match the B1G teams between regions to balance them, but theoretically the East region will have the weakest 1 seed, so it will have the strongest 4 seed.

I like your analysis, only thing I see is why would Kansas not go to Milwaukee as a 1 seed? That would seem to make just as much sense as Dallas? If that is the case I think we say hello to Buffalo or Pittsburg. I don’t believe the committee will have us above Wisconsin.

The loss yesterday did not cost us a 4, but I am really afraid it did cost us any chance at Indy/Milwaukee.

 

[RockyMtnIllini81]

I like your analysis, only thing I see is why would Kansas not go to Milwaukee as a 1 seed? That would seem to make just as much sense as Dallas? If that is the case I think we say hello to Buffalo or Pittsburg. I don’t believe the committee will have us above Wisconsin.

The loss yesterday did not cost us a 4, but I am really afraid it did cost us any chance at Indy/Milwaukee.

Why do you think Wisconsin gets Milwaukee? We were co-champs, both lost only game in BTT, and we won head to head.