Bracketology

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#51      

fuggles

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fuggles
I don't see how Wisconsin get's a better seed than us. There isn't a single rating system where they are higher rated. KenPom, all of Sagarin's, NET. Not one. And we beat them head-to-head. They have more quad 1 wins, but they also have 2 quad 3 losses.

Vermont should be a 12 seed. Not 13. They are better than the projected 12s except Rutgers and maybe ND. But of coarse talking heads on the internet know better.
 
#52      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
fuggles said:
I don't see how Wisconsin get's a better seed than us. There isn't a single rating system where they are higher rated. KenPom, all of Sagarin's, NET. Not one. And we beat them head-to-head. They have more quad 1 wins, but they also have 2 quad 3 losses.

Vermont should be a 12 seed. Not 13. They are better than the projected 12s except Rutgers and maybe ND. But of coarse talking heads on the internet know better.
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While it's true that Wisconsin has 2 Quad 3 losses, and we have zero, I think the fact they have 4 more combined Q1 and Q2 wins than us more than makes up for that. Not saying I agree with these measures, just saying I'm pretty sure these are the factors that will have Wisconsin seeded ahead of us. I think Wisconsin is a deeply flawed team for how highly they're going to be seeded, and think they're a prime upset candidate.

Edited to delete a bunch of incorrect stuff about RPI after fuggles correctly pointed out I was wrong.
 
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#53      

fuggles

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fuggles
the juiceman cometh said:
Unfortunately the Selection Committee cares a lot more about RPI than KenPom, Sagarin, or even a school's own NET (the do care about opponents' NET for Quad win/loss purposes). We rank 28 in RPI while Wisconsin ranks 17. Also, while it's true that Wisconsin has 2 Quad 3 losses, and we have zero, I think the fact they have 4 more combined Q1 and Q2 wins than us more than makes up for that. Not saying I agree with these measures, just saying I'm pretty sure these are the factors that will have Wisconsin seeded ahead of us. I think Wisconsin is a deeply flawed team for how highly they're going to be seeded, and think they're a prime upset candidate.
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I don't believe this is true. The NCAA said years ago when the NET came out they were going to use it over RPI. Can't wait to see the S curve. We shall see tomorrow.
 
#54      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
fuggles said:
I don't believe this is true. The NCAA said years ago when the NET came out they were going to use it over RPI. Can't wait to see the S curve. We shall see tomorrow.
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I think you're right about that actually, I forgot they said that but that does jog my recollection. I think Quad wins are the primary use of NET though, which favors Wisconsin in the comparison with us.
 
#55      

Piotyr

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Piotyr
fuggles said:
I don't believe this is true. The NCAA said years ago when the NET came out they were going to use it over RPI. Can't wait to see the S curve. We shall see tomorrow.
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Yeah, RPI is not a thing they use. However, SOR (strength of record) is, and that happens to be a metric where Wisconsin looks amazing.
 
#58      

CubsIlliniFan

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CubsIlliniFan
HailtotheChief said:
Well I wouldn't be so sure but I hope you are correct. If the win the B10 tourney, especially if it over Purdue and finish the season with only 2 losses since Feb 1st they probably should be and I hate Iowa
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I think they would drop Providence as their numbers are not as good as ours and they were probably the lowest 4 seed. I could see Iowa being a 4 instead of them if the Committee makes changes. I thought Seth Davis said they already had the seeds set but the placements not set.
 
#59      

fuggles

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fuggles
Piotyr said:
Yeah, RPI is not a thing they use. However, SOR (strength of record) is, and that happens to be a metric where Wisconsin looks amazing.
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Maybe. But this is what the NCAA website says.

"The 2021-22 men's basketball season marks the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. "

And we are better in the NET rankings 15 to 25. Not a small number. But they have been know to not follow the NET precisely.
 
#60      

HailtotheChief

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HailtotheChief
bootsy1974 said:
Nah. You are putting too much emphasis on the conference tournament. They don't move the needle that much.
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Since February if they only lost 2 times one if which was on the road vs us and they then add wins in Indy over Indiana and Purdue I am looking at the past 6 weeks of very strong play. Hopefully they lose lol. I dont think it's that cut and dry but we shall see
 
#61      

fuggles

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fuggles
For those who didn't hear the MSU/Wisconsin broadcast Andy Katz was talking about the seeding and said something like "talking to the committee [blah blah blah] the brackets will be done Saturday night." Paraphrasing.
 
#62      

Rocky

Rocky
Rocky
the juiceman cometh said:
We've been the favorite in like 90% of our games this season, so it probably feels like we crumble under the weight of being favorites when we lose but in fact we win the vast majority of games we're favored. We've just had so many more opportunities to lose games we're favored in than to win games we're underdogs in. The only one I can think of where we were clear underdogs was @ Purdue, and we definitely did not rise to the challenge that day.
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CMON , MAN !!!
 
#63      

fuggles

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fuggles
HailtotheChief said:
Since February if they only lost 2 times one if which was on the road vs us and they then add wins in Indy over Indiana and Purdue I am looking at the past 6 weeks of very strong play. Hopefully they lose lol. I dont think it's that cut and dry but we shall see
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But their second half schedule was pretty weak. Minny, Maryland, 2x Neb, MSU, NW, OSU, 2x Mich, Us. They split UM and lost to Us. Their only quality win was OSU who has cratered since beating us.
 
#64      

bootsy1974

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bootsy1974
HailtotheChief said:
Since February if they only lost 2 times one if which was on the road vs us and they then add wins in Indy over Indiana and Purdue I am looking at the past 6 weeks of very strong play. Hopefully they lose lol. I dont think it's that cut and dry but we shall see
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I don't care how many losses they've had since November, which they played hardly anyone of substance, they still finished 5th in the league. You don't get rewarded for a month of good play beating mediocre teams.
 
#66      

HailtotheChief

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HailtotheChief
fuggles said:
But their second half schedule was pretty weak. Minny, Maryland, 2x Neb, MSU, NW, OSU, 2x Mich, Us. They split UM and lost to Us. Their only quality win was OSU who has cratered since beating us.
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I think over Rutgers is a quality win you omitted being and also if they win out in Indy but like I said I hope they lose. I hate Iowa but they are the hottest team in the B10 like it or not.
 
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#67      

CV Illini

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CV Illini
fuggles said:
But their second half schedule was pretty weak. Minny, Maryland, 2x Neb, MSU, NW, OSU, 2x Mich, Us. They split UM and lost to Us. Their only quality win was OSU who has cratered since beating us.
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Exactly. They are 0-5 against us, Wisconsin and Purdue this season.
 
#68      

Rocky

Rocky
Rocky
BTW ... Iowa doesn't want to play MSU. They want PU. That's how you know a tournament ready team. I only hope Illinois has that kind of grit coming into
the ncaa tourney.
 
#72      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
fuggles said:
But their second half schedule was pretty weak. Minny, Maryland, 2x Neb, MSU, NW, OSU, 2x Mich, Us. They split UM and lost to Us. Their only quality win was OSU who has cratered since beating us.
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I kinda think Iowa is the other side of the Selection Committee coin with Wisconsin. Kenpom and NET both have them ahead of us and way ahead of Wisconsin. But they have a terrible Q1 record (2-6, 10-9 combined Q1/Q2). So they will end up a 5, even though they actually are the top Big Ten team in Kenpom and 2nd in NET.
 
#73      

Calvin

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Calvin
If you believe Kenpom or the bracket matrix, it's going to be a bad year for the B10. Not a single team in the top 12 in Kenpom, and the best seed is a 3 for Purdue. Not a popular opinion, but my own sense is similar --conference is deep but no team consistent enough that I'd expect a FF. Hope I'm surprised.
 
#74      

Rocky

Rocky
Rocky
If Iowa beats Purdue (good luck), they MAY get get a #4 or #5 seed, but likely a #5 or 6 seed.
 
#75      

bootsy1974

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bootsy1974
Calvin said:
If you believe Kenpom or the bracket matrix, it's going to be a bad year for the B10. Not a single team in the top 12 in Kenpom, and the best seed is a 3 for Purdue. Not a popular opinion, but my own sense is similar --conference is deep but no team consistent enough that I'd expect a FF. Hope I'm surprised.
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Not sure what this has to do with anything. We had two 1 seeds and two 2 seeds in last year's tournament and only one of them made it to the second weekend. Not having a top 12 team in Kenpom? Who cares. They don't what is going to happen in the tournament.
 
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