Pregame: Illinois vs Chattanooga, Friday, March 18th, 5:50pm CT, TNT
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Kenpom: cincy 101, Virginia 84, Oregon 79, Butler 126, Bryant 183.
Not saying it will be easy… it’s not supposed to be. But I think every BIG team we’ve beaten this year has a better list of wins.
Selling out on Smith won’t be necessary. We have a Pork Guard that will make him squeal all evening.
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KrushCow31
Former Krush Cow
- Chicago, IL
In my defense I only listed Bryant because they're a tournament team haha.
Houston Kenpom also = 4 though, which I am sure you know.
I remember I was like 8 years old and my family was on vacation during that tourney. My dad and I listed to that game on the radio in 97 and it about ruined our trip
They have beat 1 tournament team. And it just happened today. If anyone wants to make an argument against the use of analytics that argument starts with Houston.
Plus, Houston had Marcus Sasser when they played Butler, Virginia, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Alabama. So those games aren't really relevant to the team they are now.
Seth Davis loves dogging the Big Ten. He didn't mention Purdue in their bracket. I think they can beat Kentucky.
Excellent point. Last year’s Houston team somehow made the final four. Four of their top six minutes guys from that team are gone. The other two are hurt and haven’t played since December (including Sasser).
Seth is all in on Duke, Kansas, and Gonzaga. Not just this year, every single year. He's a front runner supporter from way back who shows disdain for all things B10. Always has, except when his man crush Bill Self was our coach.
ESPN computer gives Houston a 25.9% chance of reaching the final four???? They must still be using Commadore 64s.
Watched most of the highlights of the SOCOn Champ (vs Furman). My thoughts:
1. M. Smith is indeed quite a player, but doesn’t appear to have a Mathurin or Ivey like first step, and at 6’4 205 isn’t overly long or thick. The wings we have the biggest problem with are 6’5+ that are also quick and that can shoot over Trent and DaMonte doesn’t have the lateral quickness to keep in front of him. Guys like Ivey, Mathurin, Branham, McGowens, and Maryland wings typically. I did see him post up a few times but DaMonte actually has a weight advantage on him and bigger/stronger guys have tried to back DaMonte down and couldn’t. In short, although a good player I don’t see the type of player we really have a hard time guarding. Think Trent can also match up with him if need be.
2. Baptiste is also a really nice player at at 195 is solidly built and the type of guard that has bullied Trent/Belo in the past, like Pickett for PSU this year or CJ Walker last year. Saw a couple of post ups but bully ball doesn’t appear to be his game. Doesn’t appear to be a bully type guard that gives us problems.
3. De Sousa has good size at 6’9 and 250 pounds but doesn’t appear to be able to stretch the floor and doesn’t look overly quick. In fact, looks a little lumbering and may get his points by being the “Kofi” of their conference. Guys that give Kofi trouble are guys that can stretch the floor and also get by him with their quickness. Also doesn’t appear to be a passing big a la Krutwig. I don’t think he will be able to consistently bully Kofi and doesn’t look like the type of center that’s given Kofi problems in the past. And if Kofi gets into foul trouble, Verdonk has bodied up as big or bigger players before and Payne might be able to bother him with his length.
I like the way that they cut and defend. We will have to be disciplined and not overplay on defense and avoid lazy passes that could turn into pick 6’s.
We can definitely lose to them, especially if we play tight and put up a clunker like we did against Indiana. However, none of their players really seem like a type of player who has given us problems and of course, they need to guard Kofi, Trent, Belo, Coleman etc without leaving Plum, Grandi or DaMonte open.
If we keep Smith from going nuclear and play our game, we should stay in it at least. We get a few 3’s to fall, especially early and we could win comfortably.
1. M. Smith is indeed quite a player, but doesn’t appear to have a Mathurin or Ivey like first step, and at 6’4 205 isn’t overly long or thick. The wings we have the biggest problem with are 6’5+ that are also quick and that can shoot over Trent and DaMonte doesn’t have the lateral quickness to keep in front of him. Guys like Ivey, Mathurin, Branham, McGowens, and Maryland wings typically. I did see him post up a few times but DaMonte actually has a weight advantage on him and bigger/stronger guys have tried to back DaMonte down and couldn’t. In short, although a good player I don’t see the type of player we really have a hard time guarding. Think Trent can also match up with him if need be.
2. Baptiste is also a really nice player at at 195 is solidly built and the type of guard that has bullied Trent/Belo in the past, like Pickett for PSU this year or CJ Walker last year. Saw a couple of post ups but bully ball doesn’t appear to be his game. Doesn’t appear to be a bully type guard that gives us problems.
3. De Sousa has good size at 6’9 and 250 pounds but doesn’t appear to be able to stretch the floor and doesn’t look overly quick. In fact, looks a little lumbering and may get his points by being the “Kofi” of their conference. Guys that give Kofi trouble are guys that can stretch the floor and also get by him with their quickness. Also doesn’t appear to be a passing big a la Krutwig. I don’t think he will be able to consistently bully Kofi and doesn’t look like the type of center that’s given Kofi problems in the past. And if Kofi gets into foul trouble, Verdonk has bodied up as big or bigger players before and Payne might be able to bother him with his length.
I like the way that they cut and defend. We will have to be disciplined and not overplay on defense and avoid lazy passes that could turn into pick 6’s.
We can definitely lose to them, especially if we play tight and put up a clunker like we did against Indiana. However, none of their players really seem like a type of player who has given us problems and of course, they need to guard Kofi, Trent, Belo, Coleman etc without leaving Plum, Grandi or DaMonte open.
If we keep Smith from going nuclear and play our game, we should stay in it at least. We get a few 3’s to fall, especially early and we could win comfortably.
Not sure what to think about this video, but part of me really likes it. This team cannot go into this tournament over confident. I hope they are humble and hungry and take Chattanooga seriously. Our team is very talented but not so good that they can take any game for granted. I want them to have the confidence to shoot when they are open, or drive to the rim without hesitancy, but I also want them to have a "healthy fear" of their opponent. They can make it to the Sweet 16 and beyond if they play their best. Go Illini!
Two things. Glad we avoided Vermont.
And Seth is an idiot. Always has been. Loves him some overrated b12 and always craps on the B1G.
And Seth is an idiot. Always has been. Loves him some overrated b12 and always craps on the B1G.
Yes. Az won the first one and they remember how lucky they were.
We can beat Arizona, but we have to get there first.Until Arizona.But not a bad 5-seed to be with.
And not saying we will beat them, but if we’re on, we can beat anyone. But when we’re off, we can lose to anyone.
Let’s just enjoy the tourney, and for f-sake let us win at least two games, I’m not ready to stop watching these kids play.
And De Souze, former Kansas recruit, isn't a shooter. He's effectively a down-low banger, but gives up 3 inches and 50 pounds to Kofi, so I don't see that going especially well for him.
Commodore. Put some respect on that name!
That Cincy game just cmon man with that game. It was early in the season, Kofi's first game back, we are dealing with guys not in the best shape at that time. Look I'm discounting the game completely but timing is everything. If we play Cincy 3 times we win the other 2 times. You could take just about every high seeded team and they have a loss or two that sticks out early in the season. That Cincy game is not who we are, it's who we were.
Yes, very real scenario where De Suzie picks up 2 early fouls and Kofi ends up with a 25 and 12 line in a 12 point win.
sacraig
- The desert
Strongly disagree.
I made it through 3 pages before I had to stop reading....If they can't make it through to Arizona then it will show how soft the Big Ten conference is. If it wasn't a tough road it would be called the NIT or CBI. For gods sake, we had a share of the Big Ten regular season championship. Chattanooga should be a cake walk. If not, than this team drastically under achieved and deserves to be sitting at home.
Ideal scenario for the game is going to Kofi early, get 2 quick fouls on each of their bigs, get an early double digit lead, and allow for plenty of Payne time, keeping the lead at double digits the whole game, pushing it up to 20 or so the last five minutes so the rest of the starters can get some rest, the freshmen can get some valuable tourney time, and Kofi is well rested for round 2.
Worst case scenario in a win is Kofi going 35 minutes and having to score 40 and 20 to win by 1.
Worst case scenario in a win is Kofi going 35 minutes and having to score 40 and 20 to win by 1.
sacraig
- The desert
I think Purdue can beat anyone (except apparently Wisconsin) if they play well.
We are at a true neutral site for all teams involved and we avoid the early morning game.
Got play tough D hit open shots and out rebound them
Got play tough D hit open shots and out rebound them
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